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Every VC in the market is now reading the same customer call transcripts. That is not an edge. That is a commodity. The moment diligence becomes something you read instead of something you do in person, it stops being diligence. Michael B. Gilroy , co-founder of Marathon Management Partners,...

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David Weisburd 🚀

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10,599 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten •via X (Twitter)

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7 Kommentare

Profilbild von Matt Patterson
Matt Pattersonvor 2 Monaten

@MBGilroy Agree @MBGilroy! We fly all late diligence founders in and spend a full day with them. There’s so much you can’t get from Zoom.

Profilbild von Ryan Denehy
Ryan Denehyvor 2 Monaten

@MBGilroy It hasn't really changed! Four years ago during our Series D three different firms presented their "exhaustive customer research" and it was quotes from the same four or five customers

Profilbild von Michael B. Gilroy
Michael B. Gilroyvor 2 Monaten

Get on the plane. Spend the extra 20 mins to get a solid back channel.

Profilbild von Dirty Indy 🟥🟧🟨
Dirty Indy 🟥🟧🟨vor 2 Monaten

@MBGilroy Sound call out

Profilbild von David Weisburd 🚀
David Weisburd 🚀vor 2 Monaten

Watch full episode:

Profilbild von Dara
Daravor 2 Monaten

@MBGilroy I genuinely don't know any Investors who are not speaking or talking to investors directly

Profilbild von Jason傑森 🇭🇰 | 🛠️
Jason傑森 🇭🇰 | 🛠️vor 2 Monaten

@MBGilroy 这帖子倒真说了句对的

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Rob Henderson

20,838 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

ELON: WE WILL NOT ACCEPT AN ANOINTED CLASS OF JOURNALISTS WHO TELL US WHAT TO THINK “What we're not going to do is say that there's some anointed class of journalists who are the special ones who get to tell everyone what they should think. It should be up to the people what they think. And even if an article is completely accurate, comprehensive, and everything, in writing that article, the media is choosing the narrative. They're deciding what to write an article about. So, I'm hopeful that this can be more a case of the public choosing the narrative as opposed to the media choosing the narrative. At least a combination of the media and the public choosing the narrative, and the public getting to weigh in on stories if they think that they should add something to it, or we've got something wrong. And over time, I think if Twitter is the best source of truth, it will succeed. And if we are not the vessels of truth, we will fail.” Source: Interview with the BBC, April 2023, Elon Musk
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ELON: WE WILL NOT ACCEPT AN ANOINTED CLASS OF JOURNALISTS WHO TELL US WHAT TO THINK “What we're not going to do is say that there's some anointed class of journalists who are the special ones who get to tell everyone what they should think. It should be up to the people what they think. And even if an article is completely accurate, comprehensive, and everything, in writing that article, the media is choosing the narrative. They're deciding what to write an article about. So, I'm hopeful that this can be more a case of the public choosing the narrative as opposed to the media choosing the narrative. At least a combination of the media and the public choosing the narrative, and the public getting to weigh in on stories if they think that they should add something to it, or we've got something wrong. And over time, I think if Twitter is the best source of truth, it will succeed. And if we are not the vessels of truth, we will fail.” Source: Interview with the BBC, April 2023, Elon Musk

Mario Nawfal

115,251 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

Elon Musk: We will not accept an anointed class of journalists who tell us what to think. “What we're not going to do is say that there's some anointed class of journalists who are the special ones who get to tell everyone what they should think. It should be up to the people what they think. And even if an article is completely accurate, comprehensive, and everything, in writing that article, the media is choosing the narrative. They're deciding what to write an article about. So, I'm hopeful that this can be more a case of the public choosing the narrative as opposed to the media choosing the narrative. At least a combination of the media and the public choosing the narrative, and the public getting to weigh in on stories if they think that they should add something to it, or we've got something wrong. And over time, I think if Twitter is the best source of truth, it will succeed. And if we are not the vessels of truth, we will fail.” Interview with the BBC, April 12, 2023
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Elon Musk: We will not accept an anointed class of journalists who tell us what to think. “What we're not going to do is say that there's some anointed class of journalists who are the special ones who get to tell everyone what they should think. It should be up to the people what they think. And even if an article is completely accurate, comprehensive, and everything, in writing that article, the media is choosing the narrative. They're deciding what to write an article about. So, I'm hopeful that this can be more a case of the public choosing the narrative as opposed to the media choosing the narrative. At least a combination of the media and the public choosing the narrative, and the public getting to weigh in on stories if they think that they should add something to it, or we've got something wrong. And over time, I think if Twitter is the best source of truth, it will succeed. And if we are not the vessels of truth, we will fail.” Interview with the BBC, April 12, 2023

ELON CLIPS

1,266,090 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

I asked Claude to find the most obvious edge on Polymarket. It came back with three bets on the End Of The World and a potential profit of +$18,400. I gave it just one prompt: "find where the crowd is lying to itself the most." Then it went silent for 40 minutes. It came back with a NASA link tracking 34,000 asteroids with meter-level precision. And NASA publishes it for free. The market "5kt meteor strike in 2026?" is priced at 38%. NASA says 0.3%. The market "10kt+ strike?" Market: 20%. NASA: 0.05%. The gap is measured using KL divergence. Anything above 0.05 is an edge. We got 4.76. That is 95x above the threshold. The agent went NO on all three. Resolve is in December 2026. +$18,400 if the world does not end because of a meteor strike. And if it does, we probably will not need the money anyway. But the more interesting question is this: If a 95x gap is visible to anyone with an API, why is the market still pricing it at 38%?
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I asked Claude to find the most obvious edge on Polymarket. It came back with three bets on the End Of The World and a potential profit of +$18,400. I gave it just one prompt: "find where the crowd is lying to itself the most." Then it went silent for 40 minutes. It came back with a NASA link tracking 34,000 asteroids with meter-level precision. And NASA publishes it for free. The market "5kt meteor strike in 2026?" is priced at 38%. NASA says 0.3%. The market "10kt+ strike?" Market: 20%. NASA: 0.05%. The gap is measured using KL divergence. Anything above 0.05 is an edge. We got 4.76. That is 95x above the threshold. The agent went NO on all three. Resolve is in December 2026. +$18,400 if the world does not end because of a meteor strike. And if it does, we probably will not need the money anyway. But the more interesting question is this: If a 95x gap is visible to anyone with an API, why is the market still pricing it at 38%?

may.crypto {🦅}

97,354 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten

You should not still be standing. The issue, the breakdown, the diagnosis, the season where you genuinely didn't know if you were going to make it — all of it had a target on it. But the devil miscalculated. Because God's ways are higher. You're here. Reading this. Still standing. That is not luck. That is purpose. The glory of what's ahead of you will be greater than anything behind you. You were fashioned — specifically, intentionally, precisely — to fit the plan of God. Not despite what you survived. Because of it. ⬇️ Tell me what you survived. I'm reading every comment.
1:33

You should not still be standing. The issue, the breakdown, the diagnosis, the season where you genuinely didn't know if you were going to make it — all of it had a target on it. But the devil miscalculated. Because God's ways are higher. You're here. Reading this. Still standing. That is not luck. That is purpose. The glory of what's ahead of you will be greater than anything behind you. You were fashioned — specifically, intentionally, precisely — to fit the plan of God. Not despite what you survived. Because of it. ⬇️ Tell me what you survived. I'm reading every comment.

Paula White-Cain

11,447 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

NVIDIA founder Jensen Huang: "We never talk about market share” “We never talk about market share in our company… Why are you fighting people for market share? The whole concept of market share says there’s a whole bunch of other people doing the same thing. And if they’re doing the same thing, why are we doing it? Why am I squandering the lives of these incredibly talented people to do something that has already been done?” Instead Jensen believes in building your company around “doing something that has never been done before.” Sometimes this means walking away from commodity work: “That demonstrates very clearly to your employees that we’re not going to do commodity work. The combination of choosing the right work and walking away from the wrong work is the best way to create the conditions [for employees to do their life’s work.]” Video source: Sana (2023)
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NVIDIA founder Jensen Huang: "We never talk about market share” “We never talk about market share in our company… Why are you fighting people for market share? The whole concept of market share says there’s a whole bunch of other people doing the same thing. And if they’re doing the same thing, why are we doing it? Why am I squandering the lives of these incredibly talented people to do something that has already been done?” Instead Jensen believes in building your company around “doing something that has never been done before.” Sometimes this means walking away from commodity work: “That demonstrates very clearly to your employees that we’re not going to do commodity work. The combination of choosing the right work and walking away from the wrong work is the best way to create the conditions [for employees to do their life’s work.]” Video source: Sana (2023)

Startup Archive

130,939 Aufrufe • vor 10 Monaten

ELON: ORDINARY CITIZENS VERY OFTEN KNOW MORE THAN JOURNALISTS “I think the media is a driver of misinformation much more than the media would like to admit that they are. In a lot of cases, it is the average citizen that knows more than the journalist. Very often, when I see an article about something that I know a lot about, and I read the article, they get a lot wrong. It's the best interpretation of someone who doesn't really understand what's going on in the industry, has only a few facts to play with, and has to come up with an article. It's not going to hit the bullseye. If you read an article about something you know about, how accurate is that article? Now, imagine that that is how essentially all articles are. They're an approximation of what's going on, but not an exact situation. If somebody is actually an expert in the field, and was actually there and then writes about their experience of being actually there, I think that actually that's, in a lot of cases, going to be better than a journalist because the journalist wasn't there.” Source: Interview with the BBC, April 2023
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ELON: ORDINARY CITIZENS VERY OFTEN KNOW MORE THAN JOURNALISTS “I think the media is a driver of misinformation much more than the media would like to admit that they are. In a lot of cases, it is the average citizen that knows more than the journalist. Very often, when I see an article about something that I know a lot about, and I read the article, they get a lot wrong. It's the best interpretation of someone who doesn't really understand what's going on in the industry, has only a few facts to play with, and has to come up with an article. It's not going to hit the bullseye. If you read an article about something you know about, how accurate is that article? Now, imagine that that is how essentially all articles are. They're an approximation of what's going on, but not an exact situation. If somebody is actually an expert in the field, and was actually there and then writes about their experience of being actually there, I think that actually that's, in a lot of cases, going to be better than a journalist because the journalist wasn't there.” Source: Interview with the BBC, April 2023

Mario Nawfal

8,733,042 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr