正在加载视频...

视频加载失败

返回首页

Everyone is asking why gasoline prices refuse to fall even as oil gets cheaper. The answer has nothing to do with crude supply. China is buying dramatically fewer barrels, pushing crude prices down. But refineries cannot flip a switch and instantly convert that crude into gasoline, diesel, and jet...

JeffSnider_EDU's profile picture

Jeffrey P. Snider

139,604 subscribers

21,354 次观看 • 1 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

LIVE

Anya Rossi• Live Now

Private livecam show

0 条评论

暂无评论

原始帖子的评论将显示在这里

相关视频

Gas prices aren't following oil down. Here's why. Crude supply is coming back. China stopped absorbing barrels. But refined fuel is different. Gasoline and diesel got drained during the disruption. Refineries can't refill overnight. That gap is the crack spread. Above sixty dollars, it means the bottleneck isn't crude anymore. It's turning crude into usable fuel. Record spreads don't last. Either runs catch up, bottlenecks persist, or demand crashes. Only one of those is good news.
3:11

Gas prices aren't following oil down. Here's why. Crude supply is coming back. China stopped absorbing barrels. But refined fuel is different. Gasoline and diesel got drained during the disruption. Refineries can't refill overnight. That gap is the crack spread. Above sixty dollars, it means the bottleneck isn't crude anymore. It's turning crude into usable fuel. Record spreads don't last. Either runs catch up, bottlenecks persist, or demand crashes. Only one of those is good news.

Jeffrey P. Snider

18,825 次观看 • 2 个月前

Crude oil isn’t just gasoline and diesel A possible blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is raising alarms because oil touches almost everything in your life. Inside a refinery, crude is split into key products that keep the world running. -Liquefied Petroleum Gas (cooking) -Gasoline (~20% of crude) -Naphtha (plastics, synthetic fibers for clothing) -Aviation fuel (stable for aircraft) -Diesel (>30% of crude, powers heavy industry) -Heavy fuel oil (large ships) -Lubricating oil (machinery) -Asphalt (road paving) at the bottom. When oil supply is threatened, the impact goes far beyond fuel prices and hits the entire system. Source: Quirksea YT
1:07

Crude oil isn’t just gasoline and diesel A possible blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is raising alarms because oil touches almost everything in your life. Inside a refinery, crude is split into key products that keep the world running. -Liquefied Petroleum Gas (cooking) -Gasoline (~20% of crude) -Naphtha (plastics, synthetic fibers for clothing) -Aviation fuel (stable for aircraft) -Diesel (>30% of crude, powers heavy industry) -Heavy fuel oil (large ships) -Lubricating oil (machinery) -Asphalt (road paving) at the bottom. When oil supply is threatened, the impact goes far beyond fuel prices and hits the entire system. Source: Quirksea YT

Mario Nawfal

75,372 次观看 • 6 个月前

Everyone is watching crude prices. Wrong number. Crude inventories are only 6% below normal. Fine, seemingly. But gasoline stocks just dropped 5 million barrels in a week. Diesel is 12% below average, even with soft freight demand. This isn't a demand story. US gasoline demand is down 2.2% year over year. It's a supply story. Refineries are running at 95.8% and still can't keep up. That gap between crude and refined product is the crack spread, and it's at record highs. Which means the refinery, not the oil field, is setting your price at the pump.
4:16

Everyone is watching crude prices. Wrong number. Crude inventories are only 6% below normal. Fine, seemingly. But gasoline stocks just dropped 5 million barrels in a week. Diesel is 12% below average, even with soft freight demand. This isn't a demand story. US gasoline demand is down 2.2% year over year. It's a supply story. Refineries are running at 95.8% and still can't keep up. That gap between crude and refined product is the crack spread, and it's at record highs. Which means the refinery, not the oil field, is setting your price at the pump.

Jeffrey P. Snider

89,549 次观看 • 2 个月前

Commodity market guru Jeff Currie on most of the world's exposure to higher gasoline and diesel prices: “The market is obsessed with the price of crude oil. It's ignoring the price of refined products. Ninety-nine percent of the world has gasoline and diesel exposure. They don't have crude oil exposure."
0:34

Commodity market guru Jeff Currie on most of the world's exposure to higher gasoline and diesel prices: “The market is obsessed with the price of crude oil. It's ignoring the price of refined products. Ninety-nine percent of the world has gasoline and diesel exposure. They don't have crude oil exposure."

Steve Hanke

16,950 次观看 • 27 天前

Commodity market guru Jeff Currie on the crisis in products refined from crude oil: “The product prices are what matters here. The crisis is here. It has arrived, and it's in the product prices, and it's not in the crude oil prices.”
0:27

Commodity market guru Jeff Currie on the crisis in products refined from crude oil: “The product prices are what matters here. The crisis is here. It has arrived, and it's in the product prices, and it's not in the crude oil prices.”

Steve Hanke

25,713 次观看 • 27 天前

The Australian economy is teetering on the brink of collapse amid a severe diesel and gasoline shortage. One of the nation’s two remaining refineries is now engulfed in flames, pushing the entire fuel supply network at risk. Australia imports most of it's diesel, gasoline and jet fuel from Singapore and South Korea. But those two sources are not receiving enough crude oil from the middle east, so they are not able to export anything to Australia. Why does Australia no longer have it's own refineries? Australia actually exports it's oil production to other countries because it cannot refine it in Australia.
11:32

The Australian economy is teetering on the brink of collapse amid a severe diesel and gasoline shortage. One of the nation’s two remaining refineries is now engulfed in flames, pushing the entire fuel supply network at risk. Australia imports most of it's diesel, gasoline and jet fuel from Singapore and South Korea. But those two sources are not receiving enough crude oil from the middle east, so they are not able to export anything to Australia. Why does Australia no longer have it's own refineries? Australia actually exports it's oil production to other countries because it cannot refine it in Australia.

Wall Street Mav

72,207 次观看 • 5 个月前

🇺🇸 U.S. gasoline and diesel inventories are already below the 5-year range, and a single refinery outage could tip the whole system over. Energy Economist Anas Alhajji breaks down why the crisis hiding in plain sight isn't crude oil at all. "If we have a major problem with the refinery outage, we are in deep trouble, not in terms of oil and crude oil. This is going to be literally jet fuel, gasoline and diesel." Airlines are hoarding. The EU just changed its fuel specs. And U.S. jet fuel exports to Europe are about to surge. Watch inventories drop fast. Anas Alhajji
13:04

🇺🇸 U.S. gasoline and diesel inventories are already below the 5-year range, and a single refinery outage could tip the whole system over. Energy Economist Anas Alhajji breaks down why the crisis hiding in plain sight isn't crude oil at all. "If we have a major problem with the refinery outage, we are in deep trouble, not in terms of oil and crude oil. This is going to be literally jet fuel, gasoline and diesel." Airlines are hoarding. The EU just changed its fuel specs. And U.S. jet fuel exports to Europe are about to surge. Watch inventories drop fast. Anas Alhajji

Mario Nawfal

54,771 次观看 • 4 个月前

WHY CRUDE IS RALLYING: CHINA IS BUYING THE MARGIN: OIL IS NOW A 100% PROFIT MACHINE Veteran commodity trader Jeff Currie says the oil rally is not a mystery. China started buying crude again for one reason: profit. Buy cheap barrels. Sell expensive diesel and gasoline. That bid is what is lifting the market now. THE REAL SIGNAL ➡️ “Nobody consumes oil,” Currie says. “They consume diesel and gasoline.” The headline barrel around $90 to $94 is the noise. The product barrel is the signal. In his telling, diesel was running near $189 while crude looked “cheap.” THE CHINA TRADE ➡️ China saw a crack near $106 to $107 a barrel and went after it. Buy oil near $90. Sell the product at a profit that Currie calls roughly 100% on the barrel. Why would you not? ➡️ “The Chinese are going, hey, we’re taking advantage of this.” They were not exporting product the same way. Then the margin exploded. Now they are buying crude they can barely find. That scramble is putting a bid under oil. THE MARKET PROOF ➡️ Russian ESPO crude into China was trading at a $7 premium to Brent. That is not a soft bid. That is China paying up for barrels that feed the product machine. Currie says look at price action, not talking-point flow numbers. The spread itself is the tell. WHAT COMES NEXT ➡️ He thinks the fat diesel crack starts to leak back into crude. China chasing those barrels is part of why. His trade framing is simple: long the crude, short the crack, as the profit gets redistributed into the oil price. THE BOTTOM LINE Oil is rising now because China is buying the margin, not because the world suddenly “needs more oil.” Cheap crude plus a $107 product spread is a profit machine. That machine is running. #JeffCurrie #ChinaOil #DieselCrack #CrudeRally #OilPrices #HardAssets #EnergyMarkets #ChinaOil #DieselCrack HT: YouTube David Lin
0:54

WHY CRUDE IS RALLYING: CHINA IS BUYING THE MARGIN: OIL IS NOW A 100% PROFIT MACHINE Veteran commodity trader Jeff Currie says the oil rally is not a mystery. China started buying crude again for one reason: profit. Buy cheap barrels. Sell expensive diesel and gasoline. That bid is what is lifting the market now. THE REAL SIGNAL ➡️ “Nobody consumes oil,” Currie says. “They consume diesel and gasoline.” The headline barrel around $90 to $94 is the noise. The product barrel is the signal. In his telling, diesel was running near $189 while crude looked “cheap.” THE CHINA TRADE ➡️ China saw a crack near $106 to $107 a barrel and went after it. Buy oil near $90. Sell the product at a profit that Currie calls roughly 100% on the barrel. Why would you not? ➡️ “The Chinese are going, hey, we’re taking advantage of this.” They were not exporting product the same way. Then the margin exploded. Now they are buying crude they can barely find. That scramble is putting a bid under oil. THE MARKET PROOF ➡️ Russian ESPO crude into China was trading at a $7 premium to Brent. That is not a soft bid. That is China paying up for barrels that feed the product machine. Currie says look at price action, not talking-point flow numbers. The spread itself is the tell. WHAT COMES NEXT ➡️ He thinks the fat diesel crack starts to leak back into crude. China chasing those barrels is part of why. His trade framing is simple: long the crude, short the crack, as the profit gets redistributed into the oil price. THE BOTTOM LINE Oil is rising now because China is buying the margin, not because the world suddenly “needs more oil.” Cheap crude plus a $107 product spread is a profit machine. That machine is running. #JeffCurrie #ChinaOil #DieselCrack #CrudeRally #OilPrices #HardAssets #EnergyMarkets #ChinaOil #DieselCrack HT: YouTube David Lin

Mark

83,478 次观看 • 1 个月前

The next question is... If the oil market is so tight, why haven't prices exploded? One theory: 🔹 China has dramatically reduced its oil imports. 🔹 But demand for gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel hasn't collapsed. So where is the oil coming from? If China has been drawing down its own stockpiles instead of buying on the global market... What happens when it has to start buying again?
2:30

The next question is... If the oil market is so tight, why haven't prices exploded? One theory: 🔹 China has dramatically reduced its oil imports. 🔹 But demand for gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel hasn't collapsed. So where is the oil coming from? If China has been drawing down its own stockpiles instead of buying on the global market... What happens when it has to start buying again?

Shazi

48,202 次观看 • 3 个月前

Fuel Hike: There Is A Greater Pull On Demand Because Supply Has Been Constrained, Leading To Increased Prices — Sowunmi Crude oil is a commodity, which means it is fungible and has a uniform price all over the world with a dollar or two difference. To that extent, there is a limit to which any government can determine the price of crude oil, so pricing is dependent on international market forces. One of the factors of that market forces is the ongoing war between Iran and the U.S. The fight has cause there to be a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz. Close to 25% of global crude oil passes through there, because of the blockade, one quarter of the available crude oil is not able to reach factors. Olabode Sowunmi Oil and Gas Expert
3:54

Fuel Hike: There Is A Greater Pull On Demand Because Supply Has Been Constrained, Leading To Increased Prices — Sowunmi Crude oil is a commodity, which means it is fungible and has a uniform price all over the world with a dollar or two difference. To that extent, there is a limit to which any government can determine the price of crude oil, so pricing is dependent on international market forces. One of the factors of that market forces is the ongoing war between Iran and the U.S. The fight has cause there to be a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz. Close to 25% of global crude oil passes through there, because of the blockade, one quarter of the available crude oil is not able to reach factors. Olabode Sowunmi Oil and Gas Expert

ARISE NEWS

41,395 次观看 • 23 天前

China stopped buying oil. Not because it ran out, because it stopped needing it. Crude imports collapsed 41 percent year over year in June. Refinery processing hit its lowest level since March 2020. No lockdown this time. Just a property downturn and a banking system under stress. China was the marginal buyer propping up global oil demand. Without it, exporters discount and reroute cargo just to find buyers. Bearish for crude. But less Chinese refining also means less gasoline, less diesel, less jet fuel reaching the market. Crude is bearish. Fuel can stay tight. Crude moves globally in weeks. Fuel is local and slow. A surplus of crude on a tanker doesn't become gasoline overnight.
3:56

China stopped buying oil. Not because it ran out, because it stopped needing it. Crude imports collapsed 41 percent year over year in June. Refinery processing hit its lowest level since March 2020. No lockdown this time. Just a property downturn and a banking system under stress. China was the marginal buyer propping up global oil demand. Without it, exporters discount and reroute cargo just to find buyers. Bearish for crude. But less Chinese refining also means less gasoline, less diesel, less jet fuel reaching the market. Crude is bearish. Fuel can stay tight. Crude moves globally in weeks. Fuel is local and slow. A surplus of crude on a tanker doesn't become gasoline overnight.

Jeffrey P. Snider

69,267 次观看 • 2 个月前

On the night of July 8, Ukraine's Special Operations Forces struck two Russian oil refineries in Nizhnekamsk, Republic of Tatarstan. The targets of the SOF were the TANECO oil refining complex and the TAIF-NK oil refinery. ◾️ TANECO is one of Russia's largest and most advanced refineries with a refining depth of up to 99%, meaning it produces more gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuel from each ton of crude oil than many older Russian refineries. ◾️ The TAIF-NK refinery has an annual processing capacity of up to 8.5 million tons of crude oil. The facility includes one of Russia's most sophisticated complexes for processing heavy oil residues. Glory!
0:06

On the night of July 8, Ukraine's Special Operations Forces struck two Russian oil refineries in Nizhnekamsk, Republic of Tatarstan. The targets of the SOF were the TANECO oil refining complex and the TAIF-NK oil refinery. ◾️ TANECO is one of Russia's largest and most advanced refineries with a refining depth of up to 99%, meaning it produces more gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuel from each ton of crude oil than many older Russian refineries. ◾️ The TAIF-NK refinery has an annual processing capacity of up to 8.5 million tons of crude oil. The facility includes one of Russia's most sophisticated complexes for processing heavy oil residues. Glory!

Anton Gerashchenko

21,460 次观看 • 3 个月前

“The UK is going to allow imports of diesel and jet fuel made from Russian crude oil. How do you feel about that?” Skys Sophy Ridge questions Exchequer Secretary to the Treasury Dan Tomlinson on government relaxing sanctions on Russian crude oil
2:14

“The UK is going to allow imports of diesel and jet fuel made from Russian crude oil. How do you feel about that?” Skys Sophy Ridge questions Exchequer Secretary to the Treasury Dan Tomlinson on government relaxing sanctions on Russian crude oil

Peter Stefanovic

20,843 次观看 • 4 个月前

🇪🇺 Europe is down to less than a month of jet fuel, and airlines are already starting to cut flights Europe's jet fuel cover just fell below a month, the lowest of any major market, and airlines in some pockets are already trimming schedules. Jeff Snider watches the airlines as this war's canary, and the canary is coughing. His map of the damage runs through the refinery, which is why crude at $82 undersells the problem. Refineries starved of crude wind down slowly and restart slower, the profit for turning oil into fuel just hit record highs, US gasoline stocks sit at mid 2010s lows after America exported fuel to plug holes abroad, and China is importing 41% LESS crude than last June, cooling oil prices while starving the world of diesel and jet fuel. The real energy shock is still ahead. Turns out the forecast is grimmer for being calmer. No 1929 rerun, since 2008 already cleaned out the banks. Instead, the silent depression the world has lived in since 2008 finally gets its 1970s fuel lines, and a world "somewhat short of 1929 is not a good place to live in." His clock is the hard part. This cannot run five years; it ends, one way or another, by New Year. And food prices join the story in the back half regardless.
25:04

🇪🇺 Europe is down to less than a month of jet fuel, and airlines are already starting to cut flights Europe's jet fuel cover just fell below a month, the lowest of any major market, and airlines in some pockets are already trimming schedules. Jeff Snider watches the airlines as this war's canary, and the canary is coughing. His map of the damage runs through the refinery, which is why crude at $82 undersells the problem. Refineries starved of crude wind down slowly and restart slower, the profit for turning oil into fuel just hit record highs, US gasoline stocks sit at mid 2010s lows after America exported fuel to plug holes abroad, and China is importing 41% LESS crude than last June, cooling oil prices while starving the world of diesel and jet fuel. The real energy shock is still ahead. Turns out the forecast is grimmer for being calmer. No 1929 rerun, since 2008 already cleaned out the banks. Instead, the silent depression the world has lived in since 2008 finally gets its 1970s fuel lines, and a world "somewhat short of 1929 is not a good place to live in." His clock is the hard part. This cannot run five years; it ends, one way or another, by New Year. And food prices join the story in the back half regardless.

Mario Nawfal

355,894 次观看 • 2 个月前

The crack spread just hit records. It's not a Fed story. Crude collapsed almost overnight after the Iran ceasefire. Tankers sailed again, storage cleared fast. Gasoline and diesel didn't follow. Crude reroutes in weeks. Refined fuel is regional, spec locked, bottlenecked by pipelines and refinery configs that take months to adjust. So crude is cheap again, fuel stays scarce, and the gap between them is sitting at a record. That spread isn't profit. It's a receipt for a supply shock still working itself out.
4:04

The crack spread just hit records. It's not a Fed story. Crude collapsed almost overnight after the Iran ceasefire. Tankers sailed again, storage cleared fast. Gasoline and diesel didn't follow. Crude reroutes in weeks. Refined fuel is regional, spec locked, bottlenecked by pipelines and refinery configs that take months to adjust. So crude is cheap again, fuel stays scarce, and the gap between them is sitting at a record. That spread isn't profit. It's a receipt for a supply shock still working itself out.

Jeffrey P. Snider

31,247 次观看 • 2 个月前

Refilling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve will drain commercial inventories, and that means prices have nowhere to go but up. Jeffrey Currie says we are sitting at a low point right now, but the real problem is what comes after. "You may have been wrong on crude oil. I was wrong on crude oil. I'd never seen cracks like this. But my question is, how are you going to turn this stuff into gasoline?" Cheap oil means nothing if you can't refine it. Jeffrey Currie 🆔++
1:41

Refilling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve will drain commercial inventories, and that means prices have nowhere to go but up. Jeffrey Currie says we are sitting at a low point right now, but the real problem is what comes after. "You may have been wrong on crude oil. I was wrong on crude oil. I'd never seen cracks like this. But my question is, how are you going to turn this stuff into gasoline?" Cheap oil means nothing if you can't refine it. Jeffrey Currie 🆔++

Mario Nawfal

81,094 次观看 • 3 个月前

Ukraine's Defense Forces struck the Yaroslavl Oil Refinery with FP-1 drones 🔥 The Yaroslavl Refinery is one of russia's largest oil refineries and a key facility in its refining industry. Its capacity is about 15 million tons of oil per year. The plant produces gasoline, diesel fuel, aviation kerosene and other petroleum products critical to the country's fuel supply.
0:27

Ukraine's Defense Forces struck the Yaroslavl Oil Refinery with FP-1 drones 🔥 The Yaroslavl Refinery is one of russia's largest oil refineries and a key facility in its refining industry. Its capacity is about 15 million tons of oil per year. The plant produces gasoline, diesel fuel, aviation kerosene and other petroleum products critical to the country's fuel supply.

Fire Point

73,577 次观看 • 2 个月前

🔥 Kstovo Refinery. Lukoil-Nizhegorodnefteorgsintez is one of the largest oil refineries in Russia. It has a capacity of about 17 million tons of oil per year. It produces gasoline, diesel, aviation fuel, bitumen and lubricants.
1:02

🔥 Kstovo Refinery. Lukoil-Nizhegorodnefteorgsintez is one of the largest oil refineries in Russia. It has a capacity of about 17 million tons of oil per year. It produces gasoline, diesel, aviation fuel, bitumen and lubricants.

MAKS 25 🇺🇦👀

14,450 次观看 • 6 个月前

Indian oil companies reporting profits while also losing nearly ₹1,000 crore a day is not a contradiction. It is how oil economics works during a global energy shock. The profits being reported today come from cheaper crude purchased before the Strait of Hormuz disruption. That older inventory is now being refined and sold at current market-linked prices, creating temporary inventory gains. But the crude arriving in India today is far more expensive. And unlike many countries that passed the entire burden directly to consumers, India chose partial consumer protection by preventing immediate full-price pass-through at the pump. So OMCs are currently absorbing a large part of the global crude shock in real time. Old crude = accounting profits. New crude = operational losses. If elevated crude prices continue, the financial impact will become visible in upcoming quarterly results.
1:55

Indian oil companies reporting profits while also losing nearly ₹1,000 crore a day is not a contradiction. It is how oil economics works during a global energy shock. The profits being reported today come from cheaper crude purchased before the Strait of Hormuz disruption. That older inventory is now being refined and sold at current market-linked prices, creating temporary inventory gains. But the crude arriving in India today is far more expensive. And unlike many countries that passed the entire burden directly to consumers, India chose partial consumer protection by preventing immediate full-price pass-through at the pump. So OMCs are currently absorbing a large part of the global crude shock in real time. Old crude = accounting profits. New crude = operational losses. If elevated crude prices continue, the financial impact will become visible in upcoming quarterly results.

Mr Sinha

30,925 次观看 • 4 个月前