Everyone is talking about the chart that predicts Bitcoin using global M2 and they are using terrible analytics. I explain why. 00:00 M2 Astrology 02:15 Measurement Problems 04:08 Illiteracy 1 05:14 Illiteracy 2 07:01 Illiteracy 3 08:15 Illiteracy 4 09:29 What is Overfitting? Also available on our YT channel.

Great breakdown. Important information for everyone to understand, so they aren’t misled by the latest trendy nonsense charts on X.

@RaoulGMI thoughts on this analysis on the M2 Money Supply being overfitted? I'm not looking to spark an fight on social media, but would love to understand your perspective as well since it'll benefit the Bitcoin community as a whole. Cheers

@BittelJulien @RaoulGMI can we have your formal rebuttal? And pls don’t say “don’t mid curve it”.

@BittelJulien @RaoulGMI "Rebuttal" with what? they will have to use statistics for a rebuttal at which point we will all agree.

@ColinTCrypto - what's your response to this?

When you take this same chart back a few years the correlation is not so good.

M2 money supply is liquidity. That liquidity finds its way into Bitcoin. It’s not tick for tick in a chart, although these charts clearly do a trend. Don’t think anyone is saying M2 and Bitcoin are pegged in anyway to move like an ETF.

@Sina_21st you should reconfirm or refute the finding of @crossbordercap that 10-12 weeks lead time is granger causal.

@crossbordercap I have not read the analysis. If you have it let me see.