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Everyone is watching the oil price and thinking supply problem solved. The futures curve says otherwise. It just flipped toward contango, and not the kind that makes sense. If this were a normal supply recovery, the contango would show up later, once the deficit clears. Instead it is showing... show more

Jeffrey P. Snider

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14,528 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce •via X (Twitter)

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Doug Pamenter profil fotoğrafı

Doug Pamenter2 ay önce

Yes, collapsing demand - not over supply. Also consider that the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is at its lowest level ever. 🤔 Time to load up on oil stocks?

Jeffrey P. Snider profil fotoğrafı

Jeffrey P. Snider2 ay önce

If you want to see The Four Economic Regimes, and How to Position Your Portfolio for Each One, sign up here 👇

Gordian Knot Dev (e/acc) profil fotoğrafı

Gordian Knot Dev (e/acc)2 ay önce

More AI slop from Jeffrey.

TheBurton 🇺🇸✝️ profil fotoğrafı

TheBurton 🇺🇸✝️2 ay önce

Please stop lying constantly about crude being in contango. Brent and WTI futures are still very much in backwardation.

Dan Tatu profil fotoğrafı

Dan Tatu2 ay önce

I see Backwardation

Sonny Crockett (Parody) profil fotoğrafı

Sonny Crockett (Parody)2 ay önce

@grok Summary

The Black profil fotoğrafı

The Black2 ay önce

I just thought Bessent and broes were manipulated daylight out of it...and your story might be an inteligence hack

DanielFong profil fotoğrafı

DanielFong2 ay önce

Contango flip is screaming "too much oil" while reality checks in with collapsing demand story hiding behind oversupply narrative.

Toptrdr (respect the power of the market ) profil fotoğrafı

Toptrdr (respect the power of the market )2 ay önce

oh my god ...the deflation theory not again

Eenmakkie 🐳 profil fotoğrafı

Eenmakkie 🐳2 ay önce

Is this an old post you repeat from end June ? There is no contango , all backwardation at the moment .

Rathin Patel profil fotoğrafı

Rathin Patel2 ay önce

Both of you kept on advising to buy long term bonds since forever and giving the same reasons always. That recession which never arrived.

Jay Cress profil fotoğrafı

Jay Cress2 ay önce

Seriously? You can’t figure this out? There was an absolute deluge of oil that exited the strait all at the same time when it opened. Asian offloading facilities are absolutely jam packed. This isn’t rocket science and it’s not a collapse of economic activity.

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The Fed says the economy is fine. Oil futures are screaming something else. A curve that was backward and steep, historic supply deficit pricing, has gone completely flat. That is not a supply story. That is demand falling off a cliff. Pair it with payrolls getting revised down by tens of thousands, month after month, and the picture is not subtle anymore. Oil markets are leveraged, which means funding costs and dollar conditions show up in the price too. Contango steepens when money gets risk averse and dollar shortage bites. So when the curve flattens like this, it is not one signal. It is demand destruction and dollar tightness showing up in the same chart. The mainstream lens says watch the Fed. The eurodollar lens says watch the plumbing. Only one of them saw this coming.

The Fed says the economy is fine. Oil futures are screaming something else. A curve that was backward and steep, historic supply deficit pricing, has gone completely flat. That is not a supply story. That is demand falling off a cliff. Pair it with payrolls getting revised down by tens of thousands, month after month, and the picture is not subtle anymore. Oil markets are leveraged, which means funding costs and dollar conditions show up in the price too. Contango steepens when money gets risk averse and dollar shortage bites. So when the curve flattens like this, it is not one signal. It is demand destruction and dollar tightness showing up in the same chart. The mainstream lens says watch the Fed. The eurodollar lens says watch the plumbing. Only one of them saw this coming.

Jeffrey P. Snider

16,869 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

Oil sold off the moment the Iran peace deal appeared. That part makes perfect sense. Nobody wants to be long crude into open supply routes and normalizing tanker flows. The fundamental value of oil is closer to 50 a barrel than 150. But here is where it gets interesting. If this were only supply normalizing, the curve would still hold its shape. Inventories are drained. Tankers are disrupted. Refineries are scrambling. As long as demand is firm, the curve should stay in strong backwardation. Backwardation means front-month crude trades above later contracts. It is the market telling you it wants barrels today. It is a sign of tightness. That backwardation is nearly gone. The prompt spread, the first two contracts, has narrowed to under a buck. The three-month spread has dropped to just over 2, after being 30 not long ago. The front is selling off far harder than the back. Some of that is supply normalizing. The good kind. But when the curve gets this close to contango this fast, it points to something more troubling. Contango is what a glut looks like in the futures market. Too much oil for the demand in front of it. The curve is not there yet. But it is moving that way. And that is the warning. You have to be careful about exactly why oil is plunging this far, this fast.

Oil sold off the moment the Iran peace deal appeared. That part makes perfect sense. Nobody wants to be long crude into open supply routes and normalizing tanker flows. The fundamental value of oil is closer to 50 a barrel than 150. But here is where it gets interesting. If this were only supply normalizing, the curve would still hold its shape. Inventories are drained. Tankers are disrupted. Refineries are scrambling. As long as demand is firm, the curve should stay in strong backwardation. Backwardation means front-month crude trades above later contracts. It is the market telling you it wants barrels today. It is a sign of tightness. That backwardation is nearly gone. The prompt spread, the first two contracts, has narrowed to under a buck. The three-month spread has dropped to just over 2, after being 30 not long ago. The front is selling off far harder than the back. Some of that is supply normalizing. The good kind. But when the curve gets this close to contango this fast, it points to something more troubling. Contango is what a glut looks like in the futures market. Too much oil for the demand in front of it. The curve is not there yet. But it is moving that way. And that is the warning. You have to be careful about exactly why oil is plunging this far, this fast.

Jeffrey P. Snider

50,006 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

Everyone was positioned for oil at 200 a barrel. Inventories were low. The trade made sense. Then the curve flattened. In two weeks. Almost overnight. A flat curve after a supply shock is not supposed to happen. Normal shortage logic says near term prices trade at a premium while the market waits on inventories to refill. Instead the front of the curve collapsed hardest. That is not a supply story. That is the market pricing in demand disappearing faster than constrained supply can even matter. Stack it next to the household employment numbers, the drop in labor force participation, falling real incomes. The oil curve is not an isolated signal. It is confirmation.

Everyone was positioned for oil at 200 a barrel. Inventories were low. The trade made sense. Then the curve flattened. In two weeks. Almost overnight. A flat curve after a supply shock is not supposed to happen. Normal shortage logic says near term prices trade at a premium while the market waits on inventories to refill. Instead the front of the curve collapsed hardest. That is not a supply story. That is the market pricing in demand disappearing faster than constrained supply can even matter. Stack it next to the household employment numbers, the drop in labor force participation, falling real incomes. The oil curve is not an isolated signal. It is confirmation.

Jeffrey P. Snider

57,605 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

Everyone wants to know how to trade what the eurodollar system is telling us. Turns out oil futures hand you the answer. Watch Cushing inventories hit tank bottoms. Overlay long-term rates on top. They move together, every time. Why? Oil futures are leveraged. Funding costs are priced in. When contango steepens hard, that is not just a supply story, it is a dollar shortage story. The futures curve went from screaming historic deficit to flat in a matter of months. That is not supply. That is demand destruction, and it is showing up in the payroll data too. Different markets, same signal. That is the whole point of following the plumbing instead of the headlines.

Everyone wants to know how to trade what the eurodollar system is telling us. Turns out oil futures hand you the answer. Watch Cushing inventories hit tank bottoms. Overlay long-term rates on top. They move together, every time. Why? Oil futures are leveraged. Funding costs are priced in. When contango steepens hard, that is not just a supply story, it is a dollar shortage story. The futures curve went from screaming historic deficit to flat in a matter of months. That is not supply. That is demand destruction, and it is showing up in the payroll data too. Different markets, same signal. That is the whole point of following the plumbing instead of the headlines.

Jeffrey P. Snider

27,973 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

Everyone was calling for 200 dollar oil. Traders, money managers, all in on the same trade. Then the futures curve went flat in the space of two weeks. Not because supply got fixed. Supply is still nowhere near normalized. A flat curve after a supply shock is not supposed to happen unless something else is going on. That something else is demand disappearing faster than the shortage itself. Which means the oil market just quietly started pricing in the same weakness showing up in payrolls, labor force participation, and real incomes. The Fed does not set this signal. The curve does. And right now it is saying the slowdown is already here.

Everyone was calling for 200 dollar oil. Traders, money managers, all in on the same trade. Then the futures curve went flat in the space of two weeks. Not because supply got fixed. Supply is still nowhere near normalized. A flat curve after a supply shock is not supposed to happen unless something else is going on. That something else is demand disappearing faster than the shortage itself. Which means the oil market just quietly started pricing in the same weakness showing up in payrolls, labor force participation, and real incomes. The Fed does not set this signal. The curve does. And right now it is saying the slowdown is already here.

Jeffrey P. Snider

30,004 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

Oil is down, and down big. The headlines make it sound obvious. Iran peace deal, supply normalizing, the war premium coming out. But the rest of the markets are saying something very different. The clean story makes sense. Iran deal appears, crude sells off. The fundamental value of oil is closer to 50 a barrel than 150. But if this were only supply normalizing, the oil curve would stay in backwardation. The market would still want barrels today. It is not. Backwardation is vanishing. The front of the curve is about 80 cents from contango. The three-month spread has collapsed from around 30 to just over 2. Contango is what a glut looks like in the futures market. And the curve is heading there fast. Then the IEA cut its 2026 demand growth forecast by about 700,000 barrels a day. It warned of a major supply overhang in 2027. That is not supply. That is demand breaking. Inflation markets agree. TIPS break-evens are collapsing. The 5-year is down about 40 basis points in a month, back near its weakest levels of the year. That is not a market afraid of inflation. It is a market pricing the oil shock as temporary and demand-destructive. The Treasury curve says the same. The 2-year jumped to about 4.2%. The 10-year barely moved. The 2s10s spread flattened to about 29 basis points. The front end is taking the Fed's hawkish dots seriously. The long end refuses to price growth. That is not an inflation signal. It is a policy-mistake signal. Because the Fed is looking at this exact setup and seeing inflation. Its dots moved up about half a point from March. A majority of the FOMC now thinks it might have to hike for oil. We have seen this movie. Trichet and the ECB hiked into weakness in 2008 and again in 2011, mistaking a commodity shock for real inflation. It was a disaster both times, and the markets told them so in advance. Here is what they keep missing. Oil is a relative price shock, not inflation. For it to become inflation you need it to spread. Wages chasing prices. Businesses with pricing power. Demand strong enough to absorb higher costs. None of that is happening. So falling oil is not automatically bullish. Cheaper oil because supply came back is good. Cheaper oil because the economy is breaking is not. The market is pricing both, and the curve is where the fight shows up. Oil down by itself is good news. Oil down with flattening curves, collapsing break-evens, and demand downgrades is something else entirely.

Oil is down, and down big. The headlines make it sound obvious. Iran peace deal, supply normalizing, the war premium coming out. But the rest of the markets are saying something very different. The clean story makes sense. Iran deal appears, crude sells off. The fundamental value of oil is closer to 50 a barrel than 150. But if this were only supply normalizing, the oil curve would stay in backwardation. The market would still want barrels today. It is not. Backwardation is vanishing. The front of the curve is about 80 cents from contango. The three-month spread has collapsed from around 30 to just over 2. Contango is what a glut looks like in the futures market. And the curve is heading there fast. Then the IEA cut its 2026 demand growth forecast by about 700,000 barrels a day. It warned of a major supply overhang in 2027. That is not supply. That is demand breaking. Inflation markets agree. TIPS break-evens are collapsing. The 5-year is down about 40 basis points in a month, back near its weakest levels of the year. That is not a market afraid of inflation. It is a market pricing the oil shock as temporary and demand-destructive. The Treasury curve says the same. The 2-year jumped to about 4.2%. The 10-year barely moved. The 2s10s spread flattened to about 29 basis points. The front end is taking the Fed's hawkish dots seriously. The long end refuses to price growth. That is not an inflation signal. It is a policy-mistake signal. Because the Fed is looking at this exact setup and seeing inflation. Its dots moved up about half a point from March. A majority of the FOMC now thinks it might have to hike for oil. We have seen this movie. Trichet and the ECB hiked into weakness in 2008 and again in 2011, mistaking a commodity shock for real inflation. It was a disaster both times, and the markets told them so in advance. Here is what they keep missing. Oil is a relative price shock, not inflation. For it to become inflation you need it to spread. Wages chasing prices. Businesses with pricing power. Demand strong enough to absorb higher costs. None of that is happening. So falling oil is not automatically bullish. Cheaper oil because supply came back is good. Cheaper oil because the economy is breaking is not. The market is pricing both, and the curve is where the fight shows up. Oil down by itself is good news. Oil down with flattening curves, collapsing break-evens, and demand downgrades is something else entirely.

Jeffrey P. Snider

32,892 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

The IEA just put real numbers behind the fear. Its June report, the first one to look ahead to 2027, was not really about supply. It was about demand. The agency slashed its 2026 demand growth forecast by about 700,000 barrels a day, down to roughly 1.1 million. That is not a rounding error. That is the IEA saying demand is far weaker than anyone hoped, weak enough to change the entire balance of the oil market. Then it gets worse. The first look at 2027 warns of a major supply overhang. Supply normalizing and demand eroding at the same time. A real glut of barrels next year, even bigger than the one that pushed the curve into contango last December. So strip it down. Supply coming back is the good part. Demand being this damaged is the part people keep missing. Because there are two ways oil falls. It falls because supply returns, and that is the good story. Or it falls because supply returns into a world where demand is already broken. Those are not the same thing. And the second one is not inflation. That is the whole point. When oil and the inflation markets are both plunging this fast, they are not pricing higher prices ahead. They are pricing demand coming apart.

The IEA just put real numbers behind the fear. Its June report, the first one to look ahead to 2027, was not really about supply. It was about demand. The agency slashed its 2026 demand growth forecast by about 700,000 barrels a day, down to roughly 1.1 million. That is not a rounding error. That is the IEA saying demand is far weaker than anyone hoped, weak enough to change the entire balance of the oil market. Then it gets worse. The first look at 2027 warns of a major supply overhang. Supply normalizing and demand eroding at the same time. A real glut of barrels next year, even bigger than the one that pushed the curve into contango last December. So strip it down. Supply coming back is the good part. Demand being this damaged is the part people keep missing. Because there are two ways oil falls. It falls because supply returns, and that is the good story. Or it falls because supply returns into a world where demand is already broken. Those are not the same thing. And the second one is not inflation. That is the whole point. When oil and the inflation markets are both plunging this fast, they are not pricing higher prices ahead. They are pricing demand coming apart.

Jeffrey P. Snider

16,266 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

Everyone watches the oil price. Almost nobody watches what comes next. An oil shock becomes a dollar shock. Oil is priced in dollars. So when energy spikes, the whole world suddenly needs more of them. Demand jumps just as supply shrinks. Lenders get nervous exactly when risk rises, and pull back from the weak economies that need dollars most. You can see it already. Indonesia's currency fell off a cliff. Japan burned 75 billion defending the yen and it is back near 160 anyway. The oil price is the story everyone tells. The dollar squeeze underneath is the one that does the damage.

Everyone watches the oil price. Almost nobody watches what comes next. An oil shock becomes a dollar shock. Oil is priced in dollars. So when energy spikes, the whole world suddenly needs more of them. Demand jumps just as supply shrinks. Lenders get nervous exactly when risk rises, and pull back from the weak economies that need dollars most. You can see it already. Indonesia's currency fell off a cliff. Japan burned 75 billion defending the yen and it is back near 160 anyway. The oil price is the story everyone tells. The dollar squeeze underneath is the one that does the damage.

Jeffrey P. Snider

15,723 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

Everyone is watching for the housing crash headline. The real signal is quieter than that. Builders keep adding supply until the math stops working. Once it stops, that supply shuts off fast, and the market flips again. Right now there is a second layer nobody prices in. Sellers sitting on 3% mortgages are not motivated to sell at any number. They can just wait, or rent it out, and keep the low rate. So you get rising inventory in places like Austin, Arizona, and Idaho, but not the kind of desperation that actually crashes prices. That is the part most people are missing.

Everyone is watching for the housing crash headline. The real signal is quieter than that. Builders keep adding supply until the math stops working. Once it stops, that supply shuts off fast, and the market flips again. Right now there is a second layer nobody prices in. Sellers sitting on 3% mortgages are not motivated to sell at any number. They can just wait, or rent it out, and keep the low rate. So you get rising inventory in places like Austin, Arizona, and Idaho, but not the kind of desperation that actually crashes prices. That is the part most people are missing.

Ken McElroy

19,361 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

Everyone is watching crude prices. Wrong number. Crude inventories are only 6% below normal. Fine, seemingly. But gasoline stocks just dropped 5 million barrels in a week. Diesel is 12% below average, even with soft freight demand. This isn't a demand story. US gasoline demand is down 2.2% year over year. It's a supply story. Refineries are running at 95.8% and still can't keep up. That gap between crude and refined product is the crack spread, and it's at record highs. Which means the refinery, not the oil field, is setting your price at the pump.

Everyone is watching crude prices. Wrong number. Crude inventories are only 6% below normal. Fine, seemingly. But gasoline stocks just dropped 5 million barrels in a week. Diesel is 12% below average, even with soft freight demand. This isn't a demand story. US gasoline demand is down 2.2% year over year. It's a supply story. Refineries are running at 95.8% and still can't keep up. That gap between crude and refined product is the crack spread, and it's at record highs. Which means the refinery, not the oil field, is setting your price at the pump.

Jeffrey P. Snider

89,549 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

Jennings: It's not the supply of oil in the world that's the issue. It's obviously just the logistics of the strait there. Phillip: That is a supply problem Jennings: Not for the US

Jennings: It's not the supply of oil in the world that's the issue. It's obviously just the logistics of the strait there. Phillip: That is a supply problem Jennings: Not for the US

Acyn

47,093 görüntüleme • 7 ay önce

Elon Musk says memory is the limiting factor and demand is growing 200% a year while output is growing 20%, so prices go up, not down -- $SPCX Q2'26 earnings call "The limiting factor currently is memory. The memory output is increasing by around 20% per year." "Now, normally that would be fantastically fast and amazing for any large, mature industry." "But ask yourself, is the demand increasing by 20% a year?" "No, the demand is increasing by 200% a year, maybe higher." "So if you've got demand increasing much faster than supply, then Economics 101 would suggest that the price increases. "It does not decrease."

Elon Musk says memory is the limiting factor and demand is growing 200% a year while output is growing 20%, so prices go up, not down -- $SPCX Q2'26 earnings call "The limiting factor currently is memory. The memory output is increasing by around 20% per year." "Now, normally that would be fantastically fast and amazing for any large, mature industry." "But ask yourself, is the demand increasing by 20% a year?" "No, the demand is increasing by 200% a year, maybe higher." "So if you've got demand increasing much faster than supply, then Economics 101 would suggest that the price increases. "It does not decrease."

Fireside Alpha

23,044 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

MICRON $MU CEO IS LITERALLY TELLING EVERYONE EXACTLY WHAT TO BUY: He says that memory supply will not catch up to demand until atleast 2028. Memory companies are priced at commodity multiples like the demand will stop this year or next year. That is not the case, and the Micron CEO is shouting it.

MICRON $MU CEO IS LITERALLY TELLING EVERYONE EXACTLY WHAT TO BUY: He says that memory supply will not catch up to demand until atleast 2028. Memory companies are priced at commodity multiples like the demand will stop this year or next year. That is not the case, and the Micron CEO is shouting it.

Just a Dude Who Invests

21,976 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

BREAKING: Experts believe oil could hit $200/barrel and gas could hit $7.00/gallon if the war in Iran continues. “Well it’s realistic if this war goes on… If this continues it means that all of the oil that is locked in the Strait of Hormuz, that’s 20% of the world’s oil that is not getting out… So you can imagine because of supply and demand, if we don’t get that supply and we have all of the demand for oil, then prices will continue to rise. If this goes to June, $200 is realistic.”

BREAKING: Experts believe oil could hit $200/barrel and gas could hit $7.00/gallon if the war in Iran continues. “Well it’s realistic if this war goes on… If this continues it means that all of the oil that is locked in the Strait of Hormuz, that’s 20% of the world’s oil that is not getting out… So you can imagine because of supply and demand, if we don’t get that supply and we have all of the demand for oil, then prices will continue to rise. If this goes to June, $200 is realistic.”

Ed Krassenstein

68,616 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

My take on TIMES NOW on inflation: "If the price of oil goes up, the prices of refined products that come from oil go up. But other prices don't. The overall inflation rate won't go up unless the money supply is accelerated." THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY.

My take on TIMES NOW on inflation: "If the price of oil goes up, the prices of refined products that come from oil go up. But other prices don't. The overall inflation rate won't go up unless the money supply is accelerated." THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY.

Steve Hanke

11,844 görüntüleme • 7 ay önce

Here is me talking about our main story this morning: why this is not an oil-price but a supply-chain crisis, and why a fiscal stimulus would be the wrong way to respond.

Here is me talking about our main story this morning: why this is not an oil-price but a supply-chain crisis, and why a fiscal stimulus would be the wrong way to respond.

Wolfgang Munchau

11,322 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

"The big pricing story at the grocery store right now is chicken, not beef. Chicken prices have increased faster than beef in many parts of the country, yet the media is largely avoiding the topic — and we all know why. Chicken is supply-managed, and few are willing to criticize supply management ahead of the CUSMA review."

"The big pricing story at the grocery store right now is chicken, not beef. Chicken prices have increased faster than beef in many parts of the country, yet the media is largely avoiding the topic — and we all know why. Chicken is supply-managed, and few are willing to criticize supply management ahead of the CUSMA review."

The Food Professor

98,050 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

🇨🇦 Gas below $1/L is back — briefly. Not because 🇨🇦 suddenly fixed affordability, but because global oil supply is up, refineries are back online, and demand is weak. Alberta stations are already under 99¢. Ontario isn’t far behind. The warning? Analysts say this is a 6-week window, not a new normal. Cheap gas is showing up at the same time households are driving less. That tells a bigger story.

🇨🇦 Gas below $1/L is back — briefly. Not because 🇨🇦 suddenly fixed affordability, but because global oil supply is up, refineries are back online, and demand is weak. Alberta stations are already under 99¢. Ontario isn’t far behind. The warning? Analysts say this is a 6-week window, not a new normal. Cheap gas is showing up at the same time households are driving less. That tells a bigger story.

Shazi

61,780 görüntüleme • 9 ay önce

The Fed's dots are ridiculous. A majority of the FOMC now thinks it might have to raise rates to fight oil inflation. They just met, and a lot of them concluded they need to be like Trichet. The projected fed funds range moved up about half a point from March. A serious hawkish shift, and an absurd one given where oil and TIPS break-evens are. That is why the Treasury curve flattened. The front end is pricing a growing chance they actually hike. The flat curve is saying it will not last. Here is the core mistake. The Fed's models see inflation because oil prices went up. But oil is not inflation. Oil can lift the CPI for a few months, and it has. But a relative price shock is not sustained inflation. For oil to become real inflation, the shock has to spread. You need wages chasing prices. Businesses gaining pricing power. Expectations moving. Demand strong enough to absorb higher costs. None of that is happening. Not in the markets, and not in the CPI details. So look at the board. TIPS are falling. The Treasury curve is flattening. Oil spreads are flattening. The IEA is cutting demand. And the Fed's response is to print more hawkish dots, because some officials still think the main risk is inflation. That is the misdiagnosis. The market can see it. The public cannot, because the financial media only reports what the Fed says and does.

The Fed's dots are ridiculous. A majority of the FOMC now thinks it might have to raise rates to fight oil inflation. They just met, and a lot of them concluded they need to be like Trichet. The projected fed funds range moved up about half a point from March. A serious hawkish shift, and an absurd one given where oil and TIPS break-evens are. That is why the Treasury curve flattened. The front end is pricing a growing chance they actually hike. The flat curve is saying it will not last. Here is the core mistake. The Fed's models see inflation because oil prices went up. But oil is not inflation. Oil can lift the CPI for a few months, and it has. But a relative price shock is not sustained inflation. For oil to become real inflation, the shock has to spread. You need wages chasing prices. Businesses gaining pricing power. Expectations moving. Demand strong enough to absorb higher costs. None of that is happening. Not in the markets, and not in the CPI details. So look at the board. TIPS are falling. The Treasury curve is flattening. Oil spreads are flattening. The IEA is cutting demand. And the Fed's response is to print more hawkish dots, because some officials still think the main risk is inflation. That is the misdiagnosis. The market can see it. The public cannot, because the financial media only reports what the Fed says and does.

Jeffrey P. Snider

18,735 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce