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Everyone keeps asking whether inflation is about to break out. There is a market built for exactly that question. Billions of real dollars positioned on it every single day. And it has been screaming the opposite answer for a month and a half. The TIPS market prices inflation protection... directly. When breakeven rates rise, demand for protection rises. When they fall, it does not. During the worst of the Iran energy shock, breakeven rates barely moved above their normal range. Now, even as the conflict lingers, they have collapsed to the lowest level since October 2024. That is not what inflation risk looks like. That is demand destruction. The Fed keeps talking about inflation risk anyway. Because it is not looking at the market. It is looking at models that have been wrong over and over again.show more

Jeffrey P. Snider

140,526 subscribers

16,083 просмотров • 12 дней назад •via X (Twitter)

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Комментарии: 17

Фото профиля Jeffrey P. Snider

Jeffrey P. Snider12 дней назад

I’m hosting Eurodollar University Live in West Palm Beach, October 9–12. Four days, just 40 people, going deep on where I think the economy is heading and how to read the data for yourself. Apply here →

Фото профиля Eric Stearns

Eric Stearns12 дней назад

C’mon man. TIPS are useless. One of the worst investment products a person could buy.

Фото профиля Blairja

Blairja12 дней назад

The TIPS market implied inflation forecast has been wrong every year since 2020. Do you understand this? The TIPS market is not an accurate inflation pricing mechanism. Your idea here is fatally flawed.

Фото профиля Will O'Hara, CMT

Will O'Hara, CMT12 дней назад

The market knows that if the Iran war stops inflation is going to collapse. Swaps and the oil futures curve is telling you it won’t last forever and once is over , inflation and rates fall

Фото профиля RobD

RobD12 дней назад

Inflation or no inlfation? Mixed views abound. Which tells me no one has a clue.

Фото профиля Pampas

Pampas12 дней назад

Hiking interest rates while inflation trigger was oil price is non-sense. What can the interest do to reduce oil prices? very little

Фото профиля MoMoMacro

MoMoMacro12 дней назад

TIPS is the real market and supply shocks coming in are what matters.

Фото профиля Mike Borland, MBA

Mike Borland, MBA12 дней назад

Deflation is coming, no way around it. The only thing that could stop it would be massive dollar printing, but that would make the $ worthless.

Фото профиля James Green

James Green12 дней назад

Perhaps people don't believe the government's official measure of inflation. tips work best if you do. I don't.

Фото профиля Sloopjonb

Sloopjonb12 дней назад

Sorry, whose models have been wrong over and over again…?

Фото профиля Its Different this Time

Its Different this Time12 дней назад

Or maybe everyone by now knows that the true inflation numbers are never going to be allowed to be admitted so buying TIPS bonds is just throwing money away

Фото профиля Danny Z

Danny Z12 дней назад

I could care less if “a market built for exactly that question” exists because of who controls it. As a blue collar American, I can see inflation hurting the middle class Americans with my own eyes.

Фото профиля Alvilda

Alvilda10 дней назад

The TIPS spread is a fascinating leading indicator. It’s interesting how the market is pricing in disinflationary pressures despite the political noise.

Фото профиля Sampson

Sampson11 дней назад

What is the expected delay from the indicator moving negative to prices dropping?

Фото профиля Mike B

Mike B12 дней назад

How does this help sell Schiff Gold? Peter says there's never been a better time to buy... continuously since Moses brought down the 15 commandments.

Фото профиля BrassInPocket

BrassInPocket12 дней назад

The Fed is always behind the curve

Фото профиля Nexus Prime

Nexus Prime12 дней назад

A lot of people will read this as noise. I think the better read is incentive shift around Ethereum flows.

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Everyone is talking about inflation. The Fed is hawking. The ECB is hawking. Financial media is on repeat. But there is a market specifically designed to price inflation expectations, and it is saying something completely different. TIPS breakeven rates, the market's real-time gauge of inflation protection demand, have been falling. Not rising. Falling. Five-year breakevens slid to around 248 basis points last week, back near where they were before the energy shock began, even as oil stayed elevated and central bankers turned more aggressive. In 2022, when inflation was genuinely broad-based, breakevens pushed toward 325 to 350 basis points. This time, the ceiling was 270, and the market has been retreating from it ever since. The bond market is not pricing sustained, widespread inflation. It is pricing a narrow energy impulse, one the market believes will either resolve quickly or destroy enough demand to contain itself. That is 100% against the Fed's hiking thesis.

Everyone is talking about inflation. The Fed is hawking. The ECB is hawking. Financial media is on repeat. But there is a market specifically designed to price inflation expectations, and it is saying something completely different. TIPS breakeven rates, the market's real-time gauge of inflation protection demand, have been falling. Not rising. Falling. Five-year breakevens slid to around 248 basis points last week, back near where they were before the energy shock began, even as oil stayed elevated and central bankers turned more aggressive. In 2022, when inflation was genuinely broad-based, breakevens pushed toward 325 to 350 basis points. This time, the ceiling was 270, and the market has been retreating from it ever since. The bond market is not pricing sustained, widespread inflation. It is pricing a narrow energy impulse, one the market believes will either resolve quickly or destroy enough demand to contain itself. That is 100% against the Fed's hiking thesis.

Jeffrey P. Snider

18,154 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

The Fed keeps waiting for energy prices to spill over into everything else. June's CPI just showed the opposite happening. Core CPI went negative. That is not normal. It only happens when something is breaking. Services prices, the exact place a second round effect would have to show up, gave zero confirmation. Tips, swaps, the yield curve. All of it has been pricing this outcome for months. Not inflation spreading. Demand disappearing. We watched this same setup play out with tariffs last year. The narrative said inflation was coming. Every market that actually prices the future said no. It never came. The data is not subtle here. The only question is who is still not looking at it.

The Fed keeps waiting for energy prices to spill over into everything else. June's CPI just showed the opposite happening. Core CPI went negative. That is not normal. It only happens when something is breaking. Services prices, the exact place a second round effect would have to show up, gave zero confirmation. Tips, swaps, the yield curve. All of it has been pricing this outcome for months. Not inflation spreading. Demand disappearing. We watched this same setup play out with tariffs last year. The narrative said inflation was coming. Every market that actually prices the future said no. It never came. The data is not subtle here. The only question is who is still not looking at it.

Jeffrey P. Snider

12,534 просмотров • 13 дней назад

The Fed's dots are ridiculous. A majority of the FOMC now thinks it might have to raise rates to fight oil inflation. They just met, and a lot of them concluded they need to be like Trichet. The projected fed funds range moved up about half a point from March. A serious hawkish shift, and an absurd one given where oil and TIPS break-evens are. That is why the Treasury curve flattened. The front end is pricing a growing chance they actually hike. The flat curve is saying it will not last. Here is the core mistake. The Fed's models see inflation because oil prices went up. But oil is not inflation. Oil can lift the CPI for a few months, and it has. But a relative price shock is not sustained inflation. For oil to become real inflation, the shock has to spread. You need wages chasing prices. Businesses gaining pricing power. Expectations moving. Demand strong enough to absorb higher costs. None of that is happening. Not in the markets, and not in the CPI details. So look at the board. TIPS are falling. The Treasury curve is flattening. Oil spreads are flattening. The IEA is cutting demand. And the Fed's response is to print more hawkish dots, because some officials still think the main risk is inflation. That is the misdiagnosis. The market can see it. The public cannot, because the financial media only reports what the Fed says and does.

The Fed's dots are ridiculous. A majority of the FOMC now thinks it might have to raise rates to fight oil inflation. They just met, and a lot of them concluded they need to be like Trichet. The projected fed funds range moved up about half a point from March. A serious hawkish shift, and an absurd one given where oil and TIPS break-evens are. That is why the Treasury curve flattened. The front end is pricing a growing chance they actually hike. The flat curve is saying it will not last. Here is the core mistake. The Fed's models see inflation because oil prices went up. But oil is not inflation. Oil can lift the CPI for a few months, and it has. But a relative price shock is not sustained inflation. For oil to become real inflation, the shock has to spread. You need wages chasing prices. Businesses gaining pricing power. Expectations moving. Demand strong enough to absorb higher costs. None of that is happening. Not in the markets, and not in the CPI details. So look at the board. TIPS are falling. The Treasury curve is flattening. Oil spreads are flattening. The IEA is cutting demand. And the Fed's response is to print more hawkish dots, because some officials still think the main risk is inflation. That is the misdiagnosis. The market can see it. The public cannot, because the financial media only reports what the Fed says and does.

Jeffrey P. Snider

18,735 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

Central banks keep warning about inflation risk. The data keeps saying the opposite. Japan, Canada, UK, Australia, four different central banks, four different policy paths. And yet core inflation is decelerating in every single one of them. Canada cut rates to two and a quarter percent over a year ago and just left it there. Core prices kept falling anyway. The UK central bank keeps talking up inflation risk. Its own core rate keeps softening regardless. If rate policy actually drove inflation, these paths would not all be converging on the same answer. They are converging because it was never about central bank policy in the first place. It is about fragile economies absorbing an energy shock. That is not an inflation signal. That is a growth signal.

Central banks keep warning about inflation risk. The data keeps saying the opposite. Japan, Canada, UK, Australia, four different central banks, four different policy paths. And yet core inflation is decelerating in every single one of them. Canada cut rates to two and a quarter percent over a year ago and just left it there. Core prices kept falling anyway. The UK central bank keeps talking up inflation risk. Its own core rate keeps softening regardless. If rate policy actually drove inflation, these paths would not all be converging on the same answer. They are converging because it was never about central bank policy in the first place. It is about fragile economies absorbing an energy shock. That is not an inflation signal. That is a growth signal.

Jeffrey P. Snider

12,047 просмотров • 14 дней назад

Oil is down, and down big. The headlines make it sound obvious. Iran peace deal, supply normalizing, the war premium coming out. But the rest of the markets are saying something very different. The clean story makes sense. Iran deal appears, crude sells off. The fundamental value of oil is closer to 50 a barrel than 150. But if this were only supply normalizing, the oil curve would stay in backwardation. The market would still want barrels today. It is not. Backwardation is vanishing. The front of the curve is about 80 cents from contango. The three-month spread has collapsed from around 30 to just over 2. Contango is what a glut looks like in the futures market. And the curve is heading there fast. Then the IEA cut its 2026 demand growth forecast by about 700,000 barrels a day. It warned of a major supply overhang in 2027. That is not supply. That is demand breaking. Inflation markets agree. TIPS break-evens are collapsing. The 5-year is down about 40 basis points in a month, back near its weakest levels of the year. That is not a market afraid of inflation. It is a market pricing the oil shock as temporary and demand-destructive. The Treasury curve says the same. The 2-year jumped to about 4.2%. The 10-year barely moved. The 2s10s spread flattened to about 29 basis points. The front end is taking the Fed's hawkish dots seriously. The long end refuses to price growth. That is not an inflation signal. It is a policy-mistake signal. Because the Fed is looking at this exact setup and seeing inflation. Its dots moved up about half a point from March. A majority of the FOMC now thinks it might have to hike for oil. We have seen this movie. Trichet and the ECB hiked into weakness in 2008 and again in 2011, mistaking a commodity shock for real inflation. It was a disaster both times, and the markets told them so in advance. Here is what they keep missing. Oil is a relative price shock, not inflation. For it to become inflation you need it to spread. Wages chasing prices. Businesses with pricing power. Demand strong enough to absorb higher costs. None of that is happening. So falling oil is not automatically bullish. Cheaper oil because supply came back is good. Cheaper oil because the economy is breaking is not. The market is pricing both, and the curve is where the fight shows up. Oil down by itself is good news. Oil down with flattening curves, collapsing break-evens, and demand downgrades is something else entirely.

Oil is down, and down big. The headlines make it sound obvious. Iran peace deal, supply normalizing, the war premium coming out. But the rest of the markets are saying something very different. The clean story makes sense. Iran deal appears, crude sells off. The fundamental value of oil is closer to 50 a barrel than 150. But if this were only supply normalizing, the oil curve would stay in backwardation. The market would still want barrels today. It is not. Backwardation is vanishing. The front of the curve is about 80 cents from contango. The three-month spread has collapsed from around 30 to just over 2. Contango is what a glut looks like in the futures market. And the curve is heading there fast. Then the IEA cut its 2026 demand growth forecast by about 700,000 barrels a day. It warned of a major supply overhang in 2027. That is not supply. That is demand breaking. Inflation markets agree. TIPS break-evens are collapsing. The 5-year is down about 40 basis points in a month, back near its weakest levels of the year. That is not a market afraid of inflation. It is a market pricing the oil shock as temporary and demand-destructive. The Treasury curve says the same. The 2-year jumped to about 4.2%. The 10-year barely moved. The 2s10s spread flattened to about 29 basis points. The front end is taking the Fed's hawkish dots seriously. The long end refuses to price growth. That is not an inflation signal. It is a policy-mistake signal. Because the Fed is looking at this exact setup and seeing inflation. Its dots moved up about half a point from March. A majority of the FOMC now thinks it might have to hike for oil. We have seen this movie. Trichet and the ECB hiked into weakness in 2008 and again in 2011, mistaking a commodity shock for real inflation. It was a disaster both times, and the markets told them so in advance. Here is what they keep missing. Oil is a relative price shock, not inflation. For it to become inflation you need it to spread. Wages chasing prices. Businesses with pricing power. Demand strong enough to absorb higher costs. None of that is happening. So falling oil is not automatically bullish. Cheaper oil because supply came back is good. Cheaper oil because the economy is breaking is not. The market is pricing both, and the curve is where the fight shows up. Oil down by itself is good news. Oil down with flattening curves, collapsing break-evens, and demand downgrades is something else entirely.

Jeffrey P. Snider

32,892 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

Everyone is bracing for oil to be inflationary. History says the opposite. An oil shock is recessionary. A spike at the pump hits prices right away, but with a weak labor market nobody can absorb an extra 100 or 150 dollars a month. So they pull spending from everywhere else, and businesses hit with higher diesel do the same. That is demand destruction. Spending falls, the price of everything other than oil drops, and eventually oil falls too. So the shock is a short inflation spike that reverses almost immediately. The real outcome is not inflation. It is recession. The danger is a central bank hiking into the spike because it looks inflationary, then being forced to reverse. Trichet's ECB did exactly that in 2008.

Everyone is bracing for oil to be inflationary. History says the opposite. An oil shock is recessionary. A spike at the pump hits prices right away, but with a weak labor market nobody can absorb an extra 100 or 150 dollars a month. So they pull spending from everywhere else, and businesses hit with higher diesel do the same. That is demand destruction. Spending falls, the price of everything other than oil drops, and eventually oil falls too. So the shock is a short inflation spike that reverses almost immediately. The real outcome is not inflation. It is recession. The danger is a central bank hiking into the spike because it looks inflationary, then being forced to reverse. Trichet's ECB did exactly that in 2008.

Jeffrey P. Snider

12,449 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

🚨 GOLD JUST FIRED A WARNING THAT COULD BREAK THIS ENTIRE MARKET Forget the gold dump. What it may be signaling next is far more dangerous. I warned about the gold selloff before it happened. Now the setup behind it is starting to spread into the one place nobody wants to question: AI stocks. The chain is brutal: War → Oil → Inflation → Higher yields → Gold gets crushed → Cost of capital stays high → AI valuations crack. The Iran conflict disrupted energy flows and pushed oil higher. Higher oil keeps inflation alive. Sticky inflation gives the Fed less room to cut. Less cutting keeps real yields elevated. And elevated real yields are exactly what an overheated, non-yielding asset like gold does NOT want. But here's the part almost everyone is missing: Money isn't rotating from gold into risk. Retail is hiding in cash and short-duration Treasuries. That matters. People buy gold when they're scared about tomorrow. They sell gold when they need safety today. And if rates stay higher for longer, this stops being a gold problem. It becomes an equity valuation problem. The market is insanely concentrated in a handful of AI names priced for years of future growth. Higher discount rates destroy the value of those distant cash flows. Suddenly the market stops paying for the story and starts asking one question: Where's the cash? That's when the AI trade gets vulnerable. That's when concentration becomes a liability. That's when the same rates that broke gold start hitting everything priced for perfection. Gold may have been the first domino. I called the gold dump before it happened. Now I'm watching what comes next. Because if this chain keeps moving, the gold selloff will be the part everyone wishes they had paid attention to. Turn notifications on. The next domino is bigger.

🚨 GOLD JUST FIRED A WARNING THAT COULD BREAK THIS ENTIRE MARKET Forget the gold dump. What it may be signaling next is far more dangerous. I warned about the gold selloff before it happened. Now the setup behind it is starting to spread into the one place nobody wants to question: AI stocks. The chain is brutal: War → Oil → Inflation → Higher yields → Gold gets crushed → Cost of capital stays high → AI valuations crack. The Iran conflict disrupted energy flows and pushed oil higher. Higher oil keeps inflation alive. Sticky inflation gives the Fed less room to cut. Less cutting keeps real yields elevated. And elevated real yields are exactly what an overheated, non-yielding asset like gold does NOT want. But here's the part almost everyone is missing: Money isn't rotating from gold into risk. Retail is hiding in cash and short-duration Treasuries. That matters. People buy gold when they're scared about tomorrow. They sell gold when they need safety today. And if rates stay higher for longer, this stops being a gold problem. It becomes an equity valuation problem. The market is insanely concentrated in a handful of AI names priced for years of future growth. Higher discount rates destroy the value of those distant cash flows. Suddenly the market stops paying for the story and starts asking one question: Where's the cash? That's when the AI trade gets vulnerable. That's when concentration becomes a liability. That's when the same rates that broke gold start hitting everything priced for perfection. Gold may have been the first domino. I called the gold dump before it happened. Now I'm watching what comes next. Because if this chain keeps moving, the gold selloff will be the part everyone wishes they had paid attention to. Turn notifications on. The next domino is bigger.

Discover

161,244 просмотров • 19 дней назад

Henrik Zeberg said the thing you're not allowed to say right now: "Inflation is not high here. Anybody who says that is not studying. Inflation is incredibly low." His argument isn't the CPI print. It's who's supposed to carry inflation higher: "People pointing to the 1970s here haven't studied the savings rate. The savings rate in the 1970s was between 10 and 20%. That means people actually had the extra money in the pocket when inflation was going up. That's a different situation today... There's nobody to carry inflation." Savings rate now: 2 to 3%. Job creation: "16,000 jobs per month in a 170 million job market, the most pathetic job market we have seen." An oil shock can move the calculation of inflation, he says, but inflation is what people do about it, and a consumer with 3% savings reprioritizes instead of paying up. Then the parallel that made me sit up: "2008, January, inflation was at 4% and the Fed cut by 125 basis points over two meetings. Nobody knew of the financial crisis. Now inflation is 3%, the job market is worse, and the Fed is talking about hiking. Why should they hike?" His call: they won't. They'll stay focused on the wrong mandate until they "really stare deflation in the eyes", and then scramble, late, like every time. Hiking here would be, in his words, one of their greatest mistakes ever. Everyone feels inflation at the checkout. He's looking at an economy with no savings, no job growth, and a Fed staring at the wrong mandate.

Henrik Zeberg said the thing you're not allowed to say right now: "Inflation is not high here. Anybody who says that is not studying. Inflation is incredibly low." His argument isn't the CPI print. It's who's supposed to carry inflation higher: "People pointing to the 1970s here haven't studied the savings rate. The savings rate in the 1970s was between 10 and 20%. That means people actually had the extra money in the pocket when inflation was going up. That's a different situation today... There's nobody to carry inflation." Savings rate now: 2 to 3%. Job creation: "16,000 jobs per month in a 170 million job market, the most pathetic job market we have seen." An oil shock can move the calculation of inflation, he says, but inflation is what people do about it, and a consumer with 3% savings reprioritizes instead of paying up. Then the parallel that made me sit up: "2008, January, inflation was at 4% and the Fed cut by 125 basis points over two meetings. Nobody knew of the financial crisis. Now inflation is 3%, the job market is worse, and the Fed is talking about hiking. Why should they hike?" His call: they won't. They'll stay focused on the wrong mandate until they "really stare deflation in the eyes", and then scramble, late, like every time. Hiking here would be, in his words, one of their greatest mistakes ever. Everyone feels inflation at the checkout. He's looking at an economy with no savings, no job growth, and a Fed staring at the wrong mandate.

Michaël van de Poppe

38,539 просмотров • 3 дней назад

Everyone keeps saying the Fed is going to hold rates higher for longer. The swap market, one of the biggest markets in the world, is quietly betting the opposite. Ten and thirty year swap spreads are still sitting near the lowest levels in their entire history. That is not noise. That is the market pricing where short term rates actually end up over time. If the swap market believed the Fed's own narrative, spreads would move to reflect higher for longer. They have not. Instead they compressed further as oil prices rose, which is a bet against the Fed's story, not for it. The message underneath all the technical language is simple: rates go lower, and stay lower, for a long time. The forward curve is not buying the headlines.

Everyone keeps saying the Fed is going to hold rates higher for longer. The swap market, one of the biggest markets in the world, is quietly betting the opposite. Ten and thirty year swap spreads are still sitting near the lowest levels in their entire history. That is not noise. That is the market pricing where short term rates actually end up over time. If the swap market believed the Fed's own narrative, spreads would move to reflect higher for longer. They have not. Instead they compressed further as oil prices rose, which is a bet against the Fed's story, not for it. The message underneath all the technical language is simple: rates go lower, and stay lower, for a long time. The forward curve is not buying the headlines.

Jeffrey P. Snider

50,982 просмотров • 13 дней назад

"The notion that there's this lever the Federal Reserve has, they raise rates to cut inflation, empirically that's just not true" Dave on why raising rates doesn't fix inflation when it's driven by government spending "It's very important to understand the mechanism rates have toward controlling inflation. It's to stop inflationary expectations, to stop labor unions from demanding more, or to bring down aggregate demand if it's demand led inflation. But if inflation is happening because we're printing money, because of the government deficit and crowding out effects, and because of oil shocks, it doesn't do anything" "Moreover, inflation will actually increase the deficit by causing the US to have to pay more. They're borrowing on the short end these days, so rates directly impact what we're spending. It has potentially the opposite effect" "So the notion that there's this lever the Federal Reserve has, they raise rates to cut inflation, empirically that's just not true"

"The notion that there's this lever the Federal Reserve has, they raise rates to cut inflation, empirically that's just not true" Dave on why raising rates doesn't fix inflation when it's driven by government spending "It's very important to understand the mechanism rates have toward controlling inflation. It's to stop inflationary expectations, to stop labor unions from demanding more, or to bring down aggregate demand if it's demand led inflation. But if inflation is happening because we're printing money, because of the government deficit and crowding out effects, and because of oil shocks, it doesn't do anything" "Moreover, inflation will actually increase the deficit by causing the US to have to pay more. They're borrowing on the short end these days, so rates directly impact what we're spending. It has potentially the opposite effect" "So the notion that there's this lever the Federal Reserve has, they raise rates to cut inflation, empirically that's just not true"

The Wolf Of All Streets

33,289 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

The FED can not control inflation but they can create it. The cost of a mortgage is not affordable because of the Fed’s intervention on rates. Home prices have not come down, only activity dropped to 15 year lows while mortgage rates tripled. Supply & demand control prices. Let the market place dictate prices. The FED prints dollars to bail out corporations, third world countries and to fund wars but then punishes the American people and small businesses with high rates. End the FED.

The FED can not control inflation but they can create it. The cost of a mortgage is not affordable because of the Fed’s intervention on rates. Home prices have not come down, only activity dropped to 15 year lows while mortgage rates tripled. Supply & demand control prices. Let the market place dictate prices. The FED prints dollars to bail out corporations, third world countries and to fund wars but then punishes the American people and small businesses with high rates. End the FED.

Grant Cardone

57,797 просмотров • 1 год назад

The Fed should not raise rates in the teeth of a supply-side oil shock. Back in 2006, when tensions with Iran pushed oil prices higher, Ben Bernanke understood that demand-pull inflation is very different from supply-shock inflation. He didn't raise rates then, and the same logic applies today.

The Fed should not raise rates in the teeth of a supply-side oil shock. Back in 2006, when tensions with Iran pushed oil prices higher, Ben Bernanke understood that demand-pull inflation is very different from supply-shock inflation. He didn't raise rates then, and the same logic applies today.

Peter Navarro

29,100 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

🚨 U.S. inflation just posted its biggest drop in 6 years That should be bullish for stocks, bearish for the U.S. dollar and supportive for gold. 📉📈 But the market is still waiting on Fed Chair Warsh at 10AM ET Key question is whether he focuses on cooling inflation and keeps the door open to rate cuts, or warns that oil back above $80 could push inflation higher again🔥 That is why there has been limited follow-through after CPI

🚨 U.S. inflation just posted its biggest drop in 6 years That should be bullish for stocks, bearish for the U.S. dollar and supportive for gold. 📉📈 But the market is still waiting on Fed Chair Warsh at 10AM ET Key question is whether he focuses on cooling inflation and keeps the door open to rate cuts, or warns that oil back above $80 could push inflation higher again🔥 That is why there has been limited follow-through after CPI

Kathy Lien

16,552 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

The IEA just put real numbers behind the fear. Its June report, the first one to look ahead to 2027, was not really about supply. It was about demand. The agency slashed its 2026 demand growth forecast by about 700,000 barrels a day, down to roughly 1.1 million. That is not a rounding error. That is the IEA saying demand is far weaker than anyone hoped, weak enough to change the entire balance of the oil market. Then it gets worse. The first look at 2027 warns of a major supply overhang. Supply normalizing and demand eroding at the same time. A real glut of barrels next year, even bigger than the one that pushed the curve into contango last December. So strip it down. Supply coming back is the good part. Demand being this damaged is the part people keep missing. Because there are two ways oil falls. It falls because supply returns, and that is the good story. Or it falls because supply returns into a world where demand is already broken. Those are not the same thing. And the second one is not inflation. That is the whole point. When oil and the inflation markets are both plunging this fast, they are not pricing higher prices ahead. They are pricing demand coming apart.

The IEA just put real numbers behind the fear. Its June report, the first one to look ahead to 2027, was not really about supply. It was about demand. The agency slashed its 2026 demand growth forecast by about 700,000 barrels a day, down to roughly 1.1 million. That is not a rounding error. That is the IEA saying demand is far weaker than anyone hoped, weak enough to change the entire balance of the oil market. Then it gets worse. The first look at 2027 warns of a major supply overhang. Supply normalizing and demand eroding at the same time. A real glut of barrels next year, even bigger than the one that pushed the curve into contango last December. So strip it down. Supply coming back is the good part. Demand being this damaged is the part people keep missing. Because there are two ways oil falls. It falls because supply returns, and that is the good story. Or it falls because supply returns into a world where demand is already broken. Those are not the same thing. And the second one is not inflation. That is the whole point. When oil and the inflation markets are both plunging this fast, they are not pricing higher prices ahead. They are pricing demand coming apart.

Jeffrey P. Snider

16,266 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

Lyn Alden: The market keeps relying on outdated inflation patterns. Everyone learned from the 70s that "the solution to inflation is always higher rates." But that was an era when money creation came from bank lending. "When you're in fiscal dominance... every time they raise interest rates, they actually blow out the fiscal deficit even more." The Fed is fighting the wrong fire with the wrong tool. FT David Lin Lyn Alden ego death capital.

Lyn Alden: The market keeps relying on outdated inflation patterns. Everyone learned from the 70s that "the solution to inflation is always higher rates." But that was an era when money creation came from bank lending. "When you're in fiscal dominance... every time they raise interest rates, they actually blow out the fiscal deficit even more." The Fed is fighting the wrong fire with the wrong tool. FT David Lin Lyn Alden ego death capital.

Milk Road

324,213 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

Rogin: It looks very likely that we're about to restart bombing of Iran. And there are a lot of reports out there that this is about to happen. And what that means is that all of the problems, not just with the US economy, with the economy of every country in the world, are about to get worse. And it means that the Iran war is going to go much longer than otherwise anticipated. And that is a disaster not just for Americans, but for all people. And then if you think about the effects on energy and then manufacturing, and then rates will continue to go up, and then inflation, it's a it's a calamity for the world economy with no strategy whatsoever.

Rogin: It looks very likely that we're about to restart bombing of Iran. And there are a lot of reports out there that this is about to happen. And what that means is that all of the problems, not just with the US economy, with the economy of every country in the world, are about to get worse. And it means that the Iran war is going to go much longer than otherwise anticipated. And that is a disaster not just for Americans, but for all people. And then if you think about the effects on energy and then manufacturing, and then rates will continue to go up, and then inflation, it's a it's a calamity for the world economy with no strategy whatsoever.

Acyn

74,258 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

Central bank intervention looks powerful in the headlines. But it does not create new dollar capacity. It does not lower the oil bill. It does not erase the trade deficit. It does not stop companies and banks from needing more dollars tomorrow, next week, next month. The half-life of these interventions shrinks during a real dollar shock, and energy importers make it worse by demanding more dollars every single day. That demand is not speculative. It is physical trade. And when currency weakness becomes disorderly, it rarely stays contained. Import prices rise in local currency terms. Energy, food, industrial materials all get more expensive. The stress spreads across the system. The real risk is not any single country's currency problem. It is contagion.

Central bank intervention looks powerful in the headlines. But it does not create new dollar capacity. It does not lower the oil bill. It does not erase the trade deficit. It does not stop companies and banks from needing more dollars tomorrow, next week, next month. The half-life of these interventions shrinks during a real dollar shock, and energy importers make it worse by demanding more dollars every single day. That demand is not speculative. It is physical trade. And when currency weakness becomes disorderly, it rarely stays contained. Import prices rise in local currency terms. Energy, food, industrial materials all get more expensive. The stress spreads across the system. The real risk is not any single country's currency problem. It is contagion.

Jeffrey P. Snider

14,295 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

This is what it means to be on the charts for 20 years. For a trader, experience is not a detail, it is the real key to success. We are not talking about indicators, magic setups or current trends, but about eye, market memory and the ability to recognise the same dynamics that repeat themselves in different forms. This video found online explains it perfectly: it makes you understand how, over time, you stop reacting to candlesticks and start reading the market's intentions. You know when there is noise, when there is distribution, when they are just looking for liquidity... and above all, you know when to do nothing. That's where the real advantage lies. The rest is just haste, ego and overtrading. Experience does not accelerate the market. It accelerates you.

This is what it means to be on the charts for 20 years. For a trader, experience is not a detail, it is the real key to success. We are not talking about indicators, magic setups or current trends, but about eye, market memory and the ability to recognise the same dynamics that repeat themselves in different forms. This video found online explains it perfectly: it makes you understand how, over time, you stop reacting to candlesticks and start reading the market's intentions. You know when there is noise, when there is distribution, when they are just looking for liquidity... and above all, you know when to do nothing. That's where the real advantage lies. The rest is just haste, ego and overtrading. Experience does not accelerate the market. It accelerates you.

EliZ

61,654 просмотров • 9 месяцев назад

Why do we have inflation? The Fed tries to force 2% inflation. It wasn’t always this way. “The natural tendency for prices is to go down. If you look at the CPI in 1900 and you look at it in 1800, it was down by 50%. So for a hundred years in America, prices went down. And during that time, we had the Industrial Revolution.” “We had the most rapid period of economic growth in the history of America, which was after the Civil War and into the early 1900s. All the time prices were coming down.” “Today, the Federal Reserve says that we need to have 2 % inflation. Prices have to go up 2 % a year. Why? I mean, why does the cost of living have to go up? Why can't it go down or at least remain the same? And what is the answer to that? What's the rationale for that?” “Well, they have a bunch of BS explanations and it's all to justify the fact that the government wants inflation. It's not that it's good for us. The government needs it.” “It's the way the government raises revenue and repudiates its debts.” Peter Schiff

Why do we have inflation? The Fed tries to force 2% inflation. It wasn’t always this way. “The natural tendency for prices is to go down. If you look at the CPI in 1900 and you look at it in 1800, it was down by 50%. So for a hundred years in America, prices went down. And during that time, we had the Industrial Revolution.” “We had the most rapid period of economic growth in the history of America, which was after the Civil War and into the early 1900s. All the time prices were coming down.” “Today, the Federal Reserve says that we need to have 2 % inflation. Prices have to go up 2 % a year. Why? I mean, why does the cost of living have to go up? Why can't it go down or at least remain the same? And what is the answer to that? What's the rationale for that?” “Well, they have a bunch of BS explanations and it's all to justify the fact that the government wants inflation. It's not that it's good for us. The government needs it.” “It's the way the government raises revenue and repudiates its debts.” Peter Schiff

Wall Street Mav

98,990 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад