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🇮🇷🇺🇸 Everyone keeps calling the top of this war. And Professor Robert Pape thinks they're about to be very wrong. The Political scientist and foreign policy scholar warns it'll play out like Iraq in 2003: a "mission accomplished" lull, then the real violence 6 months later, with an allegedly... show more

Mario Nawfal

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63,221 просмотров • 1 месяц назад •via X (Twitter)

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🇺🇸🇮🇷History doesn't lie, and Political Scientist Robert Pape has 30 years of data to prove it. "American sanctions, oil sanctions is the American way of war. It is not the peace path." Trump is caught in an escalation trap, and every exit costs him everything. Robert A. Pape

🇺🇸🇮🇷History doesn't lie, and Political Scientist Robert Pape has 30 years of data to prove it. "American sanctions, oil sanctions is the American way of war. It is not the peace path." Trump is caught in an escalation trap, and every exit costs him everything. Robert A. Pape

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Look closely at where the bombs are actually falling in Iran, and a bigger picture snaps into focus: this looks like the setup for a ground grab on Hormuz. Political Scientist and Foreign Policy Scholar Robert Pape, reads the strike map as "Stage 3," knocking on the door of a ground operation. Pape's catch: those carriers get dangerously exposed the moment Russia starts feeding Iran satellite data. Robert A. Pape

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Look closely at where the bombs are actually falling in Iran, and a bigger picture snaps into focus: this looks like the setup for a ground grab on Hormuz. Political Scientist and Foreign Policy Scholar Robert Pape, reads the strike map as "Stage 3," knocking on the door of a ground operation. Pape's catch: those carriers get dangerously exposed the moment Russia starts feeding Iran satellite data. Robert A. Pape

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Iran's next weapon could be a toll booth on the Strait of Hormuz. Professor Robert Pape lays out his "August shock" scenario: Tehran charging "friendly" states like China next to nothing, then dangling that same discount to Gulf countries willing to quietly drop their US bases. "They're not deterred by another 6 week bombing campaign." Robert A. Pape

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Iran's next weapon could be a toll booth on the Strait of Hormuz. Professor Robert Pape lays out his "August shock" scenario: Tehran charging "friendly" states like China next to nothing, then dangling that same discount to Gulf countries willing to quietly drop their US bases. "They're not deterred by another 6 week bombing campaign." Robert A. Pape

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇱 Israel is rapidly approaching a dangerous "escalation trap" where it may soon decide to launch major military operations entirely without American approval. Professor Robert Pape pointed out that nearly half of the Israeli public is now allegedly onboard with the nation going solo in its foreign policy initiatives. The professor warns that domestic political pressures are making rogue Israeli strikes highly likely. Robert A. Pape

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇱 Israel is rapidly approaching a dangerous "escalation trap" where it may soon decide to launch major military operations entirely without American approval. Professor Robert Pape pointed out that nearly half of the Israeli public is now allegedly onboard with the nation going solo in its foreign policy initiatives. The professor warns that domestic political pressures are making rogue Israeli strikes highly likely. Robert A. Pape

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🇮🇷🇺🇸 University of Chicago political scientist Robert Pape says “we’re about to enter the period of maximum leverage for Iran.” He told CNN that as global oil inventories hit a projected “cliff” in late July and early August, Tehran’s bargaining power will surge. “Why would it cut a deal when its leverage is about to grow?” he asked. Robert A. Pape

🇮🇷🇺🇸 University of Chicago political scientist Robert Pape says “we’re about to enter the period of maximum leverage for Iran.” He told CNN that as global oil inventories hit a projected “cliff” in late July and early August, Tehran’s bargaining power will surge. “Why would it cut a deal when its leverage is about to grow?” he asked. Robert A. Pape

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Escalation might be the only card left on the table as the U.S. runs out of options in the Middle East. Professor Robert Pape argues that chaos in Lebanon is handing the Trump administration consecutive political losses that make them look incredibly weak. He suggested the pressure to avoid looking like an embarrassment on the world stage could trigger another massive military escalation in the coming months. Robert A. Pape

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Escalation might be the only card left on the table as the U.S. runs out of options in the Middle East. Professor Robert Pape argues that chaos in Lebanon is handing the Trump administration consecutive political losses that make them look incredibly weak. He suggested the pressure to avoid looking like an embarrassment on the world stage could trigger another massive military escalation in the coming months. Robert A. Pape

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 TARGETING LIFE: THE GULF’S NEW VULNERABILITY Desalination plants are the new front line of this conflict. Robert Pape warns that strikes on Bahrain and Iran are targeting the very survival of the region. Israel’s "opportunistic expansion" in moments of chaos is a strategy that often results in a long-run loss for security. Water and oil facilities are being traded as targets, creating a cycle of retaliation that threatens every nation in the Gulf. Robert A. Pape

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 TARGETING LIFE: THE GULF’S NEW VULNERABILITY Desalination plants are the new front line of this conflict. Robert Pape warns that strikes on Bahrain and Iran are targeting the very survival of the region. Israel’s "opportunistic expansion" in moments of chaos is a strategy that often results in a long-run loss for security. Water and oil facilities are being traded as targets, creating a cycle of retaliation that threatens every nation in the Gulf. Robert A. Pape

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🚨🇺🇸 🇮🇷 THE ESCALATION LADDER: BEYOND RED LINES The regional war we are witnessing is far more than a "Venezuela-style" operation. Professor Robert Pape explains that Iran has leaped over critical steps on the escalation ladder. Daily strikes in the Gulf and tight control over the Strait of Hormuz prove the strategy is backfiring. Two weeks into the bombing, and Iran is actually stronger and more in control of oil than when it started. Robert A. Pape

🚨🇺🇸 🇮🇷 THE ESCALATION LADDER: BEYOND RED LINES The regional war we are witnessing is far more than a "Venezuela-style" operation. Professor Robert Pape explains that Iran has leaped over critical steps on the escalation ladder. Daily strikes in the Gulf and tight control over the Strait of Hormuz prove the strategy is backfiring. Two weeks into the bombing, and Iran is actually stronger and more in control of oil than when it started. Robert A. Pape

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Are we on the verge of a massive regional war in the Middle East, or are we trapped in a slow-burning fuse? Professor Robert Pape argues that while immediate risks remain moderate over the summer, the real danger spikes by January as prolonged instability weakens Gulf governments. Much like the catastrophic trajectory of the Iran-Iraq War, history shows that states rarely find an easy exit from the compounding escalation traps that the world is seeing. "18 months from now it's 90% likely that Iran will test nuclear weapons." Robert A. Pape

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Are we on the verge of a massive regional war in the Middle East, or are we trapped in a slow-burning fuse? Professor Robert Pape argues that while immediate risks remain moderate over the summer, the real danger spikes by January as prolonged instability weakens Gulf governments. Much like the catastrophic trajectory of the Iran-Iraq War, history shows that states rarely find an easy exit from the compounding escalation traps that the world is seeing. "18 months from now it's 90% likely that Iran will test nuclear weapons." Robert A. Pape

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Three tankers hit near the Strait of Hormuz in a matter of day, and somehow it's barely making the news. Professor Robert Pape says this isn't a one-week story but the opening act of a "gathering storm," with Iran allegedly behind a wave of strikes the West keeps shrugging off. "They're simply not giving it the attention it deserves and that's going to set up for some pretty big surprises going forward." Robert A. Pape

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Three tankers hit near the Strait of Hormuz in a matter of day, and somehow it's barely making the news. Professor Robert Pape says this isn't a one-week story but the opening act of a "gathering storm," with Iran allegedly behind a wave of strikes the West keeps shrugging off. "They're simply not giving it the attention it deserves and that's going to set up for some pretty big surprises going forward." Robert A. Pape

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🇮🇷🇺🇸 Bessent told Iranian soldiers to lay down their arms and invoked the fall of the Berlin Wall. Political scientist Robert Pape says that removed any remaining doubt about the goal being regime replacement, which changes the calculation for everyone inside Iran. Roughly 20% of the population, tens of millions of people, are tied to that government and turned out for the supreme leader's funeral: "Once they see the existential nature of this, they're going to fight to the end." Robert A. Pape

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Bessent told Iranian soldiers to lay down their arms and invoked the fall of the Berlin Wall. Political scientist Robert Pape says that removed any remaining doubt about the goal being regime replacement, which changes the calculation for everyone inside Iran. Roughly 20% of the population, tens of millions of people, are tied to that government and turned out for the supreme leader's funeral: "Once they see the existential nature of this, they're going to fight to the end." Robert A. Pape

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🇺🇸 🇮🇷 Robert Pape says people are misreading the canceled U.S. strikes on Iran. The political scientist argues the real story isn't whether the operation was a bluff, but what the cancellation reveals about Washington's decision-making. In his view, this is the White House caught between military action and restraint, unable to commit fully to either. Pape says the answer to whether the strikes were genuine lies in the military preparations, from pilots and tankers to launch orders, all of which can be traced after the fact. "This is not a sign of de-escalation... what you're seeing is strategic paralysis." Robert A. Pape

🇺🇸 🇮🇷 Robert Pape says people are misreading the canceled U.S. strikes on Iran. The political scientist argues the real story isn't whether the operation was a bluff, but what the cancellation reveals about Washington's decision-making. In his view, this is the White House caught between military action and restraint, unable to commit fully to either. Pape says the answer to whether the strikes were genuine lies in the military preparations, from pilots and tankers to launch orders, all of which can be traced after the fact. "This is not a sign of de-escalation... what you're seeing is strategic paralysis." Robert A. Pape

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🚨🇺🇸🇻🇳🇮🇷 The White House is facing a high-stakes test that could turn the Middle East into Trump's version of the Vietnam War. According to renowned professor Robert Pape, an Iranian surface-to-air missile allegedly downing a U.S. Apache helicopter signals that a major regional confrontation is locking into place. If Tehran launches a surprise tactical offensive in the fall to completely shatter Washington's narrative, Pape warns the administration will be left completely blind-sided while markets continue to sleepwalk through the crisis. Robert A. Pape

🚨🇺🇸🇻🇳🇮🇷 The White House is facing a high-stakes test that could turn the Middle East into Trump's version of the Vietnam War. According to renowned professor Robert Pape, an Iranian surface-to-air missile allegedly downing a U.S. Apache helicopter signals that a major regional confrontation is locking into place. If Tehran launches a surprise tactical offensive in the fall to completely shatter Washington's narrative, Pape warns the administration will be left completely blind-sided while markets continue to sleepwalk through the crisis. Robert A. Pape

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Every concession Iran makes is just setup for the next squeeze. Geopolitical Analyst Robert Pape just laid it all out. "They're already planning for the next round of the squeeze. Let's get Trump to go down this road, because then they're going to squeeze them again and again." Robert A. Pape

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Every concession Iran makes is just setup for the next squeeze. Geopolitical Analyst Robert Pape just laid it all out. "They're already planning for the next round of the squeeze. Let's get Trump to go down this road, because then they're going to squeeze them again and again." Robert A. Pape

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What happens next in Iran? Political scientist Robert A. Pape thinks the war is likely to get 'bigger' and 'much worse', with a chance of US troops being sent in. Hear his full discussion with Richard Engel on The World podcast. 🎧 👉

What happens next in Iran? Political scientist Robert A. Pape thinks the war is likely to get 'bigger' and 'much worse', with a chance of US troops being sent in. Hear his full discussion with Richard Engel on The World podcast. 🎧 👉

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Controlling the Persian Gulf is now a high-stakes chess match over the pipeline choke points. Professor Robert Pape explains that Iran is weaponizing cheap drone tech to manipulate global shipping routes, and simply building alternative routes may be insufficient to change the dynamics of control. "They want to control the areas where the pipelines would come out as well." Robert A. Pape

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Controlling the Persian Gulf is now a high-stakes chess match over the pipeline choke points. Professor Robert Pape explains that Iran is weaponizing cheap drone tech to manipulate global shipping routes, and simply building alternative routes may be insufficient to change the dynamics of control. "They want to control the areas where the pipelines would come out as well." Robert A. Pape

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Sanctions get sold as the off-ramp from war, and they've been the on-ramp since 1914. Political scientist Robert Pape has spent 30 years studying blockades alongside bombing campaigns, and calls them the two great escalation traps: "They are likely to be tactically successful and strategically fail." They'll bite, they'll hurt, and they'll harden the regime rather than topple it. Then comes the real damage, because failed sanctions retire the argument that force is a last resort, priming the country doing the squeezing to reach for it. Robert A. Pape

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Sanctions get sold as the off-ramp from war, and they've been the on-ramp since 1914. Political scientist Robert Pape has spent 30 years studying blockades alongside bombing campaigns, and calls them the two great escalation traps: "They are likely to be tactically successful and strategically fail." They'll bite, they'll hurt, and they'll harden the regime rather than topple it. Then comes the real damage, because failed sanctions retire the argument that force is a last resort, priming the country doing the squeezing to reach for it. Robert A. Pape

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EP-27 with Top U.S. Political Scientist Prof. Robert Pape (Robert A. Pape) premieres today at 5 PM IST | ANI Broadcast “President Trump could effectively lose his presidency in a war of attrition.” “Iran is becoming the oil hegemon, on the cusp of nuclear weapons.” “Iran is now among the 5th most powerful countries on the planet.” “Pakistan gave Iran somewhere between 600 and 900 centrifuges from its nuclear program” “There is a 70% chance that the U.S. would invade Iran.” Tap 'notify me' to get episode alerts: #ANIBroadcast #IshaanPrakash #RobertPape #DonaldTrump #USA #Iran #War #Israel #Netanyahu #Pakistan #SaudiArabia #Gulf

EP-27 with Top U.S. Political Scientist Prof. Robert Pape (Robert A. Pape) premieres today at 5 PM IST | ANI Broadcast “President Trump could effectively lose his presidency in a war of attrition.” “Iran is becoming the oil hegemon, on the cusp of nuclear weapons.” “Iran is now among the 5th most powerful countries on the planet.” “Pakistan gave Iran somewhere between 600 and 900 centrifuges from its nuclear program” “There is a 70% chance that the U.S. would invade Iran.” Tap 'notify me' to get episode alerts: #ANIBroadcast #IshaanPrakash #RobertPape #DonaldTrump #USA #Iran #War #Israel #Netanyahu #Pakistan #SaudiArabia #Gulf

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🇮🇷 🇺🇸 Robert Pape says the real growing danger is the power vacuum emerging across the Middle East. Recent attacks and proxy activity shouldn't be viewed only as coordinated Iranian signaling. Instead, he says they're part of a broader regional scramble as America's long-standing dominance weakens. According to Pape, when a dominant power retreats, other states and armed groups move to fill the space, increasing the risk of horizontal escalation across multiple fronts rather than one direct U.S.-Iran war. "When the preeminent power declines, you get a power vacuum... and power vacuums don't stay still." Robert A. Pape

🇮🇷 🇺🇸 Robert Pape says the real growing danger is the power vacuum emerging across the Middle East. Recent attacks and proxy activity shouldn't be viewed only as coordinated Iranian signaling. Instead, he says they're part of a broader regional scramble as America's long-standing dominance weakens. According to Pape, when a dominant power retreats, other states and armed groups move to fill the space, increasing the risk of horizontal escalation across multiple fronts rather than one direct U.S.-Iran war. "When the preeminent power declines, you get a power vacuum... and power vacuums don't stay still." Robert A. Pape

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Economic sanctions are being sold as an alternative to war. But according to Professor Robert Pape, they can become an escalation trap. Pape argues that Trump’s “maximum economic pressure” campaign may succeed tactically by inflicting enormous economic pain on Iran, while failing strategically to force Tehran to surrender. Instead, it could harden the regime and make retaliation more likely. The historical record is ugly. Pape points to Japan in 1941, when American oil sanctions helped convince Japanese leaders that they were facing political and economic extinction. Their response was Pearl Harbor. Iran could face a similar calculation: if sanctions are designed to eventually destroy the regime, Tehran has less reason to simply absorb the punishment and wait. It has every reason to lash back. And Iran has thousands of miles of land borders through which sanctioned goods can still move. Closing those corridors would require military force, potentially dragging the U.S. deeper into the war just to make the sanctions work. Pape's warning is brutally simple: Sanctions may not be the off-ramp from war. They may be the road to the next escalation. Robert A. Pape

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Economic sanctions are being sold as an alternative to war. But according to Professor Robert Pape, they can become an escalation trap. Pape argues that Trump’s “maximum economic pressure” campaign may succeed tactically by inflicting enormous economic pain on Iran, while failing strategically to force Tehran to surrender. Instead, it could harden the regime and make retaliation more likely. The historical record is ugly. Pape points to Japan in 1941, when American oil sanctions helped convince Japanese leaders that they were facing political and economic extinction. Their response was Pearl Harbor. Iran could face a similar calculation: if sanctions are designed to eventually destroy the regime, Tehran has less reason to simply absorb the punishment and wait. It has every reason to lash back. And Iran has thousands of miles of land borders through which sanctioned goods can still move. Closing those corridors would require military force, potentially dragging the U.S. deeper into the war just to make the sanctions work. Pape's warning is brutally simple: Sanctions may not be the off-ramp from war. They may be the road to the next escalation. Robert A. Pape

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