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Everyone keeps debating “affordability” like it’s some giant mystery... It’s not. We printed nearly 40% more dollars in two years during COVID. Asset prices and everyday costs exploded as a direct result. Homes, food, insurance, and borrowing costs all reset higher. Mortgage rates that were once near historic lows...

129,937 次观看 • 1 天前 •via X (Twitter)

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Housing Affordability Will Return the Hard Way New homes selling for less than existing homes means builders are being forced to respond to the market before homeowners are. Builders carry construction loans, land costs, payroll and unsold inventory. They cannot wait indefinitely, so they cut prices, reduce square footage and offer mortgage rate buydowns. Existing owners with 3% or 4% mortgages can simply refuse to sell. Price discovery is therefore appearing first in new construction while resale prices remain supported by restricted supply. The comparison is not perfectly equal because new homes are increasingly smaller and concentrated in lower-cost regions. Even so, the reversal matters. A market that historically placed a premium on new construction now requires discounts to move inventory. Mortgage Demand Has Collapsed The deeper signal is mortgage activity. The purchase application index is roughly 35% below its long term average and about 70% below its 2005 peak. Application volume has fallen toward levels last seen around 1995 even though the U.S. population is nearly 29% larger. Measured per person, purchase application activity is therefore about 22% lower than it was three decades ago. In practical terms, a much larger country is producing nearly one quarter fewer mortgage applications per capita. This is not a lack of interest in owning a home. It is a failure of affordability. Mortgage rates were around 7.5% to 8% in 1995, but the median new home cost roughly $133,000. Today rates are somewhat lower, yet home prices are more than three times higher. Monthly payments have risen much faster than household incomes, while down payments, taxes and insurance have become larger barriers of their own. Transactions Usually Break Before Prices The historical pattern is that housing volume weakens before home prices fully adjust. That happened during the 2006 to 2008 downturn. Buyers disappeared first, inventory accumulated later, and prices fell more decisively once unemployment rose and forced selling increased. Today the mortgage lock in has delayed that process. Owners with low rates are holding properties off the market, preventing inventory from rising enough to clear prices. Builders do not have that luxury, which is why they are cutting first. Why Lower Rates May Not Be Enough Lower mortgage rates alone could bring sidelined buyers back and place another floor under prices. Real affordability requires both lower financing costs and lower home prices relative to income. That combination usually appears when the economy is weakening. Rising unemployment reduces household formation, forces some owners to sell and breaks the lock in effect. Inventory rises just as demand falls. Mortgage rates decline because growth and inflation are deteriorating, but lending standards tighten and fewer people feel secure enough to buy. That is the cruel part of the housing cycle. Homes become more affordable only after buyers become scarcer. The people who benefit most are those who retain employment, liquidity and access to credit through the downturn. Hormuz Could Accelerate The Reset A sustained Strait of Hormuz disruption would intensify this process with a lag. Higher oil prices raise gasoline, freight, airline, food and production costs. Households lose discretionary income, businesses see margins compressed and hiring slows. At first, the inflation shock could keep long term yields and mortgage rates elevated even as demand weakens. Later, if unemployment continues to rise and consumption deteriorates, rates would fall because the economy is breaking beneath the surface. That is the most likely path back to affordability. Not a painless return to cheap mortgages, but a recessionary reset in which employment weakens, forced supply increases and falling rates arrive too late to protect everyone.

EndGame Macro

250,798 次观看 • 24 天前

#DemsAct #DemVoice1 #wtpBLUE #ONEV1 #FAM46 For anyone puzzled by persistent inflation numbers. PLEASE WAKE UP. THIS IS REALLY IMPORTANT It is NOT as Republicans would have you believe, fiscal mismanagement. It’s their rich donors stealing money from you with impunity. This is something Biden has little to no control of. Unless he takes some important and in my view, very necessary action. There is now irrefutable evidence which shows that high corporate profits are a main driver of ongoing inflation. Companies continue to keep prices high even as their inflationary costs drop. Prices for consumers rose by 3.4% over the past year, but input costs for producers increased by just 1%. When business costs rise the cost is passed on in the blink of an eye. When their costs drop they do NOTHING. Corporations are enjoying windfall profits worth $billions as a direct result of their costs dropping while consumer costs remain static and in some cases increase. The imperative action needed is a significant windfall tax based on the difference between input costs plus a normal margin and current consumer costs. Businesses see every global shock like the pandemic or Russia invading Ukraine, as an opportunity to exploit consumers to increase their margins. As a direct result, the Fed increases interest rates and consumer prices remain high. It’s a lose lose for American families, as yet more money is stole from the bottom and the middle to feed the greed of the rich. This is not a conspiracy theory it is a simple fact. Action needs to be taken, otherwise NOTHING WILL CHANGE as everyday Americans pay for the private jets and yachts of the rich.

𝔗𝔯𝔲𝔱𝔥 𝔐𝔞𝔱𝔱𝔢𝔯𝔰

17,814 次观看 • 2 年前

🚨 THIS NUMBER SHOULD NOT EXIST The U.S. housing market is now at the most unaffordable level in history. Worse than the legendary 2006 housing bubble: The median U.S. home now costs $436,000. Five years ago? $270,000. That’s a 61.5% price increase. Wages over the same period? +29%. To qualify for a mortgage on a median-priced home today, Americans need a minimum of $127,000 in household income. The median household earns about $80,000. That means 75% of homes on the market are unaffordable for the average American family. 3 out of 4. Mortgage rates are the second punch. They went from 2.7% to 6.3% in just five years. Even if prices hadn’t moved, monthly payments would’ve nearly doubled. And here’s the part nobody wants to say out loud: On January 29th, Trump told his Cabinet he does not want housing prices to fall. He wants them higher. That’s great if you already own. It’s brutal if you’re trying to buy your first home. 99% of U.S. counties are less affordable than their historical norms. The country is short roughly 7.1 million homes. And construction is slowing. Existing home sales in 2025 are tracking around 4.1 million. That’s near the lowest level in three decades. Homeownership has fallen to 65%, down from 69% in 2004. This is the largest affordability crisis in modern U.S. housing history. Prices went up. Rates went up. Wages did not. And politicians do not want prices to fall. The average American family is not waiting for a better entry. That is the trap. They are locked out of the market. Reminder: I’ve called all the market tops and bottoms for the last 15 years, including the Bitcoin bottom at $16,000 and the top at $126,000. The next call will be even more important. When I exit the markets completely, I’ll post it here publicly like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.

Alex Mason 👁△

76,397 次观看 • 2 个月前

🚨BREAKING: Iran is striking major ports and oil tankers in the Middle East and this could trigger a crash in stock markets. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively blocked. Around 20 million barrels of oil per day pass through this route. Nearly 20% of global LNG exports, mainly from Qatar, also move through here. If this route stays disrupted, the impact spreads fast. 1. It could push oil toward $100–$120 per barrel. If that happens, petrol and diesel prices rise globally. Electricity costs also increase in countries that rely on gas. Airlines, logistics companies, and manufacturers all face higher fuel costs. 2. Qatar is one of the world’s largest LNG exporters. If LNG shipments are delayed or blocked, Europe and Asia face tighter gas supply. Power generation costs go up. Governments may need to use emergency reserves again. That’s why some analysts are comparing this to the 2022 energy crisis. 3. Shipping routes are being rerouted around Africa. That adds: 10–14 extra days to deliveries, higher fuel costs, and higher freight rates. Car manufacturers depend on just-in-time parts. If parts are delayed for weeks, production lines slow or temporarily stop. 4. The Gulf region exports key petrochemicals used to make fertilizer. If fertilizer supply tightens, farming costs rise and food prices increase in the coming months. This doesn’t hit instantly, but it builds over time. 5. War-risk insurance costs have reportedly jumped around 50%. For large vessels, that means hundreds of thousands of dollars in extra cost per trip. That reduces trade flow and pushes freight costs higher globally. The UAE has already shut its stock market for two days. Global markets are reacting. This is not just about oil prices moving up. It impacts energy supply, trade routes, inflation pressure, and global growth. If the disruption lasts more than a few weeks, the economic effects will compound quickly.

Bull Theory

1,417,400 次观看 • 5 个月前

Governor, you’re absolutely right, affordability is no hoax. It’s a harsh reality hitting Maryland families who are already struggling under your big-government policies. Let’s not forget, you inherited a $5.5 billion surplus from Governor Hogan. Yet just nine months ago, you pushed through the largest tax increase in state history, slapping hardworking families with $1.6 billion in new taxes and fees. That is $2 billion in tax and fee increases in the last two years. And then there’s your green energy mandates, which have saddled Maryland with the highest energy bills in the nation, all to pursue extreme climate policies that are not grounded in reality and ignore the everyday costs families are facing. Now, let’s address housing. You keep dodging the real reasons behind skyrocketing prices and demand. Right now, an estimated 60,000 recent non-citizens are on our Medicaid rolls, while hundreds of thousands of illegal immigrants call Maryland home. Maryland schools are now funneling over half a billion dollars into funding for Limited English Proficient students. International migration, both legal and illegal, isn’t just a footnote; it’s driving up demand in a strained housing market, further pushing prices higher. Marylanders want a fair system, fiscal responsibility, and policies that prioritize their needs. They’re tired of watching their friends and family move, while their own financial stability is strained. Maryland doesn't need to be a state in constant decline, that is by choice. Vote smart this year.

Matt Morgan

55,109 次观看 • 7 个月前