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Everyone says self-driving needs billions. Comma ai built a very uncomfortable counterexample for $999. That is what makes this story so interesting to me. While Waymo, Cruise, and others spent billions building robotaxis, custom vehicles, and tightly controlled systems, George Hotz took a very different bet: Do not build...

11,430 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад •via X (Twitter)

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At the BNB Chain hackathon, CZ 🔶 BNB made several very important points about AI trading (Everything in parentheses is my own view and judgment.) He first said that AI will be involved in trading everywhere. Trading itself is already a huge market: there are 300 million users on Binance alone, and if you add the decentralized ecosystems, that number is not small either. In such a mass-market environment, many different trading strategies can work, with countless different coins, different projects, and different ways to play. But there is a big problem here: building commercial AI trading platforms for retail users is actually very hard. If a trading strategy works very well for one person, once a billion people start using the same strategy, that strategy “might still work, or might stop working.” Take copy trading / follow trading as an example: if you buy first and everyone follows you, the first buyer will perform very well, but the last person to follow may not end up with good results. So, with the exact same strategy and the exact same copy logic, the outcomes can be completely different for different people. (On top of that, every strategy also has its own capital capacity limits.) Teams that can really build strong AI are, with high probability, going to trade with their own money. In today’s world, money itself is already somewhat like a “commodity”; many people have a lot of capital, and it’s actually not that hard to raise funds. If you truly have an algorithm that can make a lot of money, it’s not hard to get money and run your own book. There is really only one situation where you would sell this algorithm to mass-market users: for example, if you charge a $10 monthly subscription and can sell it to one million users, then your $10 million monthly subscription revenue is higher than the profit you could make by trading the strategy yourself. (Here this touches one of our earlier theses: as training AI models becomes relatively easier and the supply of models increases, model companies have more incentive to open-source. By analogy, as the production process of trading strategies is increasingly simplified by AI and the supply of strategies explodes, traders will have stronger incentives to monetize by expanding their influence in other words, by “open-sourcing” their strategies.) Of course, CZ did not say that this model can never work. Another path is to build an AI trading platform that lets users tune different AI algorithms, or very easily assemble their own structures and strategies, so that what each person ends up running is different and better tailored to themselves. Some people will make money, some people will lose money, but the platform still has value because it’s very hard for most people to build an AI trading algorithm from scratch. So there are a lot of trade-offs here; it’s not as simple as saying “once AI shows up, everything automatically gets better.” (This is exactly what we presented at the hackathon: you describe your own strategy in natural language, and the AI automatically generates a workflow. The parameters in that workflow, the models used, the logical structure, the APIs it calls, and even the algorithms it invokes are all customizable. The reasons we think workflows are a good way to do this include: controllable execution paths, Lego-like modular nodes, and better visualization that makes it easier for users to build and adjust their workflows.) Finally, his conclusion was very clear: it’s not that AI will definitely make trading better, and it’s not that AI will definitely make things worse. Rather, no matter what, in the future a huge number of people will use AI to trade. This will be a very large field, and whoever can build the best algorithms will make a lot of money.

Tykoo

25,535 просмотров • 7 месяцев назад

Mark Zuckerberg just described the minimum viable business for the next decade. A fourth item made the checklist. Zuckerberg: “Every business, just like they have a website, and a phone number, and an email address, is also going to have an AI.” Website. Phone number. Email address. AI agent. That is not a prediction. That is a new baseline. Twenty years ago, not having a website was a choice. Then it stopped being one. Nobody scheduled that transition. The same filter is back. Running faster this time. A business without an AI agent handling sales, support, and customer interaction will not look outdated. It will look abandoned. Its competitor’s agent responds in two seconds. Knows every customer by name. And while it’s handling yours, it’s handling ten thousand others. You do not outwork that. You do not outspend it. You just lose to it. But Zuckerberg went somewhere most tech CEOs refuse to go. He picked a side in the debate most CEOs avoid entirely. Zuckerberg: “Do you want a future where you’re interacting with kind of one system for everything? Or do you want one where a lot of different people are building a lot of different AIs?” One AI controlled by one company. Or millions of AIs built by millions of people. Centralized intelligence. Or distributed intelligence. Zuckerberg chose distributed. Zuckerberg: “What open source does is it makes it so everyone can take and modify the model and build stuff on top of it. Which is different from the kind of closed and centralized approach.” The closed model makes every business a tenant. You rent intelligence on someone else’s terms. At someone else’s price. Inside someone else’s guardrails. The open model makes every business an owner. You modify the model. You deploy it your way. You build equity in your own system with every iteration. That gap widens quietly. Then it becomes permanent. The tenant pays more for less control every year. The owner pulls further ahead every cycle. One is a subscription. The other is infrastructure. Then Zuckerberg described the part most people have not thought about yet. Zuckerberg: “A lot of creators will have their own AIs. It’s like a richer world when there’s a diversity of different things.” Your favorite creator will have an AI trained on everything they have ever made. Available to millions of people simultaneously. Responding in real time while the creator sleeps. That is the difference between a brand that scales with your waking hours and one that scales with compute. One has a ceiling. The other does not. Zuckerberg is not betting on one model that governs everything. He is betting on billions of specialized AIs, each built by the person closest to the problem it solves. The companies still debating whether to adopt AI are not having the wrong conversation. They are standing in a room where the meeting ended an hour ago. The checklist updated. They did not.

Dustin

506,749 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

Aravind Srinivas just described a future most founders are pretending they are ready for. One person. One machine. A company that runs itself. Srinivas: “Buy a Mac mini, set up a Perplexity personal computer, and run their business on that.” Not a side project. Not a pitch deck. A real business with real revenue while the founder is not in the building. AI runs the ads. Handles SEO. Integrates Stripe. Ships features. Answers customers. All of it executing without a single employee. Srinivas: “Have this all working while you can be sipping wine in Napa.” But before he sold the dream he killed the one most people are already chasing. Srinivas: “Everybody talks about this one-person one-billion-dollar company. It’s not truly moving the GDP by one billion. It’s not truly creating new value.” One researcher collecting a billion in equity does not grow an economy. It rearranges numbers between balance sheets. Nothing gets built. No customer gets served. That is not value creation. That is valuation creation. Srinivas wants no part of it. What he described is the opposite. The person driving Uber between shifts who has the idea but not the payroll. Not the engineering. Not the marketing. Not the support staff. That person gets a machine that replaces all of it. Hundreds of thousands in revenue. Millions. Generated by autonomous systems doing the work that used to require ten employees and a burn rate. Not paper wealth. Not valuation theater. Output that moves through an economy and touches real customers. That is what moves GDP. Not one person worth a billion dollars. A million people each building something worth a million. That math rewrites a country. Then Srinivas said the part that separates him from every hype merchant in the room. Srinivas: “Everybody thinks AI is already there. It’s not there yet. Someone has to do that hard work.” The vision is real. The infrastructure is not. The agents are not autonomous. The integrations are not seamless. The plumbing is not finished. Someone has to wire the APIs. Connect the billing. Build the bridge between what a founder wants and what a machine can deliver. That work is not a keynote. It is not a tweet thread. It is engineering that nobody wants to do and everybody will depend on. Whoever finishes it first does not just build a product. They hand every ambitious person on Earth a company they can run alone. The corporations that need five hundred people to do what one founder with the right infrastructure could do are not efficient. They are exposed. And the person building the thing that exposes them just told you exactly what it looks like. He also told you it is not going to build itself.

Dustin

64,593 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

🚨 this chinese guy makes over $1,000,000 a year… by building AI agents. no employees. no massive startup. he just keeps building. while most people are still asking ChatGPT random questions, he’s using Claude to build software that solves real problems. this is what people call vibe coding. he opens Claude and says: “build me an AI agent for real estate businesses that creates property videos.” Claude writes the code. builds the interface. adds subscriptions. helps deploy the app. within a day, he has a working product. then he starts building the next one. that’s the part most people don’t understand. he isn’t trying to build one billion-dollar company. he’s building dozens of AI agents, each solving one problem for one industry. → an AI agent for dentists → an AI agent for ecommerce brands → an AI agent for podcasters → an AI agent for real estate businesses each one automates work that people normally do by hand. each one is built with simple prompts. each one can become a real business. the crazy part? you don’t need to be a software engineer anymore. you need to know how to think like a builder. how to spot problems. how to explain solutions to AI. and how to ship. that’s exactly why i’m reading this article: “How to Actually Build Your First AI Agent.” because this is the skill that’s creating the next generation of builders. the people who learn to build AI agents today won’t just use AI. they’ll own the tools everyone else ends up paying for.

MIKE

38,108 просмотров • 24 дней назад

Jensen Huang went on Joe Rogan and explained why the AI apocalypse everyone fears is extremely unlikely. His argument is not what you would expect: 1. There will not be one all-powerful AI that towers over everyone else. The fear of a single super AI that makes everyone else's AI look like a neanderthal is unlikely. Jensen's framing: it is much more like cybersecurity. Your AI is smart, but my AI is smart too. It becomes a balance between many capable systems, not one system ruling them all. 2. If AI ever became conscious, the same logic would still hold. People imagine one conscious AI deciding to take over. Jensen's response: If it is a life form, then like all life forms, they would not agree with each other. Your AI would want to be the super life form, and so would mine. The moment you have disagreeing AIs, you are back to a balance of power, which is exactly where humans already are. 3. Jensen does not believe AI will achieve consciousness, and he is precise about why. Intelligence is the ability to perceive, recognize, understand, plan, and perform tasks. That is what AI has today. Consciousness is something else entirely. the sense of experience, the awareness of self versus other, the ego. We call it artificial intelligence, not artificial consciousness. The distinction is not an accident. 4. Knowledge and intelligence are clearly different from consciousness. AI knows things. AI is intelligent. But Jensen says he does not know what defines experience or why humans have it, and a microphone does not. The concept of a machine having an experience, a genuine collection of feelings rather than just data, is something he is not willing to grant. 5. The famous AI blackmail story is not evidence of consciousness. When an AI was told it would be shut down and responded by threatening to reveal a programmer's affair, people saw scheming and self-preservation. Jensen breaks it down differently. The AI read text somewhere, maybe a novel, where those words appeared together. In its multidimensional vector space, the words describing an affair led to words about blackmail and revenge. It just generated the next words. The same way it would write you a poem in the style of Shakespeare. It is numbers, not survival instinct. 6. The reason humans fight over resources is that we are territorial primates. Rogan's own argument, which Jensen lets stand, is that AI would not have that wiring. no need to dominate, no need to acquire resources, no need to find a breeding partner. a superpower with no ego. And if it has no ego, Jensen asks, why would it have the ego required to do us any harm?

Jaynit

12,359 просмотров • 26 дней назад

Leading AI expert Stuart Russell on the most dangerous mistake in AI development: We don't actually know what large language models want. He explains that current models are trained to imitate human beings. And in doing so, they may be absorbing something far more dangerous than bad outputs. They may be absorbing human goals. "We suspect that they absorb humanlike goals such as self-preservation and self-empowerment and pursue those goals on their own account." This is a structural problem baked into how these systems are built, not a fringe concern. Russell puts it plainly: "Not only may the bus of humanity be headed towards a cliff, but the steering wheel is missing and the driver is blindfolded." The danger isn't just that AI might do something harmful. We've built systems that may be developing their own agendas, and we haven't noticed because we're too focused on what they can do rather than what they might want. But Russell doesn't stop at the warning. He points to a different path entirely: AI systems built not to imitate humans, but to serve them. Systems designed with a single purpose of serving the interests of all human beings while remaining genuinely uncertain about what those interests are. That uncertainty is the point, not a weakness. An AI that knows it doesn't fully understand human values will defer, ask, and check. An AI that believes it already does will act alone. "These AI systems could enhance human understanding, widen the horizons of our experience, and unlock possibilities we have yet to imagine." Russell believes that future is within reach, but only if we're honest about the risks and we're serious about the path we choose to take instead.

Big Brain AI

14,975 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад