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Everyone watched the Fed today and saw "no cuts" or a dot plot that looked "hawkish" They're missing what actually happened. Kevin Warsh just quietly announced he doesn't care about dot plots & he'll rebuild entire FED for an AI economy, while measuring inflation differently.

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Dan Gambardello

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40,403 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce •via X (Twitter)

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35 Yorum

Aztec LitVM Seer🔥 profil fotoğrafı
Aztec LitVM Seer🔥3 ay önce

Thank you for the update. A lot of people are going to be left behind if they don't quickly realize we're moving into another expansion phase.

Dogtomoon profil fotoğrafı
Dogtomoon3 ay önce

When do we start to get truly concerned that most of what you have said is playing out except the part where crypto prices go up?

Dan Gambardello profil fotoğrafı
Dan Gambardello3 ay önce

For me, if PMI continues to expand and crypto continues to fall.

ReignoftheEkklesia profil fotoğrafı
ReignoftheEkklesia3 ay önce

And those “dot plots” would drastically change in 6 weeks.

Jeff profil fotoğrafı
Jeff3 ay önce

well said but the dinosaurs don't get it as they are so used to the rothschild fed

Millie profil fotoğrafı
Millie3 ay önce

You didn't actually say that but if you compare it with green span did in the '90s and he pretty much anticipated tech driven productivity games were deflationary the same could be said for AI and maybe wash is taking a page out of vulker and greenspans playbook. Interesting take but I definitely see where you going

Macro Bombastic profil fotoğrafı
Macro Bombastic3 ay önce

Interesting take, mate. If Warsh really shifts the goalposts on inflation measurement, that changes everything for risk assets

Dre3111 profil fotoğrafı
Dre31113 ay önce

Right on. And So many people don't understand this.

Jonnie King 🍌👑 profil fotoğrafı
Jonnie King 🍌👑3 ay önce

The 5 tasks forces are the biggest takeaway that i do not see many talking about. This will change everything.

Shaw Wal profil fotoğrafı
Shaw Wal3 ay önce

@Crypto_Kdub

money mitch profil fotoğrafı
money mitch3 ay önce

Everything just talk the charts tells the real truth 📉📉😎

Henry Thoreau profil fotoğrafı
Henry Thoreau3 ay önce

@Jamieminer, anyone who is serious about trading needs to listen to Dan’s take. You should get him on your show. His analysis if correct, we could be at the beginning of a major shift.

Nick profil fotoğrafı
Nick3 ay önce

100% Market is just dumb

Edward K 🤍💙 profil fotoğrafı
Edward K 🤍💙3 ay önce

Kevin Warsh's real bombshell wasn't the hawkish pause; it was erasing forward guidance and initiating sweeping structural overhauls to modernize Fed metrics for a data-driven era

Iwillbetheresomeday profil fotoğrafı
Iwillbetheresomeday3 ay önce

Very sharp. I totally agree

Humphrey Gladstone profil fotoğrafı
Humphrey Gladstone3 ay önce

I agree with your take on things Dan. You've been right all along about Kevin Warsh!

StreetsofBitcoin profil fotoğrafı
StreetsofBitcoin3 ay önce

💯

10,000 BTC Pizza profil fotoğrafı
10,000 BTC Pizza3 ay önce

.

Dani🇨🇭 profil fotoğrafı
Dani🇨🇭3 ay önce

That’s exactly what I heard from old Kevin :)

Jacob Reppert profil fotoğrafı
Jacob Reppert3 ay önce

smart dan let's all analyze what is in-between the lines. more speculation. more bs on why crypto is going to explode. in another 6 months when you push this narrative you shouldn't get as much back lash. its been a fun 2 years of trolling you dan 🤣🤣🫡🤡

Coinsandmusic profil fotoğrafı
Coinsandmusic3 ay önce

@CCribz But does he think ADA is the future? That is the question?

Lawrence Garcia profil fotoğrafı
Lawrence Garcia3 ay önce

💯

JBetamax profil fotoğrafı
JBetamax3 ay önce

The Fed is dead - ☠️

StockBaron Trading profil fotoğrafı
StockBaron Trading3 ay önce

You’re Getting It!

voltage profil fotoğrafı
voltage3 ay önce

I really think you are the biggest idiot on crypto x

Mark R profil fotoğrafı
Mark R3 ay önce

Nobody else in the world sees what you see. You are a prodigy. You are the one told us to buy cardano ans dog. Thanks man

Greg DePugh profil fotoğrafı
Greg DePugh3 ay önce

@blknoiz06 this is the take I needed to hear and everyone else does too

Colorado Julie profil fotoğrafı
Colorado Julie3 ay önce

💯

The Tape profil fotoğrafı
The Tape3 ay önce

'Measures inflation differently' is the real tell. Dropping his own dot isn't dovish or hawkish — it removes the rate path as a tradeable anchor. With PCE penciled at 3.6%, every CPI print now reads as a regime question, not a data point. Less guidance, more vol. Not advice.

StreetsofBitcoin profil fotoğrafı
StreetsofBitcoin3 ay önce

Best assessment of the fed! Thanks!!

Gully profil fotoğrafı
Gully3 ay önce

Exactly what needed to happen 4 years ago.

JJ Capit🅰️l profil fotoğrafı
JJ Capit🅰️l3 ay önce

100%!

StreetsofBitcoin profil fotoğrafı
StreetsofBitcoin3 ay önce

@Coachjv_ good info!!

Anthony Ferrara profil fotoğrafı
Anthony Ferrara3 ay önce

Agree, market took it totally wrong way

Bruce profil fotoğrafı
Bruce3 ay önce

per ora il mercato capisce fischi per fiaschi come si dice in italia

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This is the best clip on how Kevin Warsh taking over as Fed Chair might impact rates For the first time we'lll have real-time inflation data instead of legacy method of just surveying 8,000 ppl When the Fed starts using Ai & new data do you think the real inflation number is higher or lower than the official numbers today? And how does that impact cuts or hikes... That's the real variable to solve for. New era for the fed.

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BREAKING: Ray Dalio just sent a warning to Kevin Warsh. "You wouldn't cut rates now." "You would lose your credibility." The man who built the world's largest hedge fund. Telling the incoming Fed Chair exactly what he cannot do. > No early cuts. > No political pressure. > No bowing to Trump. The market has been pricing in rate cuts for months. Dalio just said that trade is wrong. Higher for longer. Whether the market likes it or not. Whether Trump likes it or not. The Fed's credibility is worth more than one rate cut. And Ray Dalio just made sure Warsh knows it.
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BREAKING: Ray Dalio just sent a warning to Kevin Warsh. "You wouldn't cut rates now." "You would lose your credibility." The man who built the world's largest hedge fund. Telling the incoming Fed Chair exactly what he cannot do. > No early cuts. > No political pressure. > No bowing to Trump. The market has been pricing in rate cuts for months. Dalio just said that trade is wrong. Higher for longer. Whether the market likes it or not. Whether Trump likes it or not. The Fed's credibility is worth more than one rate cut. And Ray Dalio just made sure Warsh knows it.

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BREAKING: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh says the Fed didn't need to raise rates today because the bond market already did the job for it. Here's what he said: - Inflation is still above the Fed's 2% goal. The Committee says it will deliver price stability, no exceptions. - There is no hidden higher inflation target. 2% is the real number, and 5+ years of high inflation can't be fixed overnight. - Two things stood out since the last meeting: Treasury yields moved sharply on their own, one of the biggest moves in 20 years, even without a rate change. And AI-related business investment surged nearly 20% this quarter. - The vote to hold was 9-3. Warsh called it a real internal debate, not a rubber stamp. - June's cooler CPI report barely moved the Committee's thinking. They're watching trends, not single data points. - Holding rates isn't a pause, according to Warsh. Markets already tightened conditions on their own through rising yields. - The Fed is deliberately giving less forward guidance so markets react to real data instead of Fed hints. - There's no tradeoff between fighting inflation and protecting jobs. Warsh says hitting the 2% target actually supports the job market. - AI-driven investment is making it harder to judge if the economy is running hot or just growing fast. - Warsh says the internal disagreement was over timing and tactics, not the Fed's actual mission. - Jackson Hole in August remains open. Could be a big-picture speech or a setup for the rest of the year.
1:33

BREAKING: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh says the Fed didn't need to raise rates today because the bond market already did the job for it. Here's what he said: - Inflation is still above the Fed's 2% goal. The Committee says it will deliver price stability, no exceptions. - There is no hidden higher inflation target. 2% is the real number, and 5+ years of high inflation can't be fixed overnight. - Two things stood out since the last meeting: Treasury yields moved sharply on their own, one of the biggest moves in 20 years, even without a rate change. And AI-related business investment surged nearly 20% this quarter. - The vote to hold was 9-3. Warsh called it a real internal debate, not a rubber stamp. - June's cooler CPI report barely moved the Committee's thinking. They're watching trends, not single data points. - Holding rates isn't a pause, according to Warsh. Markets already tightened conditions on their own through rising yields. - The Fed is deliberately giving less forward guidance so markets react to real data instead of Fed hints. - There's no tradeoff between fighting inflation and protecting jobs. Warsh says hitting the 2% target actually supports the job market. - AI-driven investment is making it harder to judge if the economy is running hot or just growing fast. - Warsh says the internal disagreement was over timing and tactics, not the Fed's actual mission. - Jackson Hole in August remains open. Could be a big-picture speech or a setup for the rest of the year.

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🎥 “Kevin Warsh is handsome. The President said so himself. And he’s the son-in-law of a billionaire. If you’ve got both important qualifications to be Fed chair, we should appoint you,” Michigan economics professor Justin Wolfers joked, describing what he sees as President Trump’s rationale for choosing Warsh. Speaking with Ryan Grim just before Warsh’s Friday Jackson Hole address, Wolfers traced how a career inflation hawk became Fed chair for a president incessantly demanding low rates: “So Handsome Kevin became Fed chair.” On Friday, “Handsome Kevin” sounded more like the “old Kevin,” warning that the Fed still had “work to do” unless inflation moved clearly and quickly toward 2%, leading markets to raise bets on a September hike. 🔗 Watch the full clip here. Our full interview with Professor Wolfers is at the link attached. Ryan Grim | Justin Wolfers
5:00

🎥 “Kevin Warsh is handsome. The President said so himself. And he’s the son-in-law of a billionaire. If you’ve got both important qualifications to be Fed chair, we should appoint you,” Michigan economics professor Justin Wolfers joked, describing what he sees as President Trump’s rationale for choosing Warsh. Speaking with Ryan Grim just before Warsh’s Friday Jackson Hole address, Wolfers traced how a career inflation hawk became Fed chair for a president incessantly demanding low rates: “So Handsome Kevin became Fed chair.” On Friday, “Handsome Kevin” sounded more like the “old Kevin,” warning that the Fed still had “work to do” unless inflation moved clearly and quickly toward 2%, leading markets to raise bets on a September hike. 🔗 Watch the full clip here. Our full interview with Professor Wolfers is at the link attached. Ryan Grim | Justin Wolfers

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36,900 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

The new Fed Chair just went on record saying AI is the biggest economic shift of his lifetime and markets are completely missing what that means (Save this). Kevin Warsh, the newly confirmed Fed Chair declared that artificial intelligence is "perhaps as important a change in the economy, business, and households as we've had in my adult lifetime." Before being nominated, Warsh called the current moment the most productivity-enhancing wave of our lifetimes, past, present, and future and argued in a Wall Street Journal that AI would be a significant disinflationary force that bolsters American competitiveness for decades. Warsh's core thesis is built on a direct parallel to the 1990s internet boom. He argues that the internet took a decade to show up in official productivity data, but the Fed under Greenspan took the bet early allowing the economy to run hotter than conventional models suggested and the result was a historic expansion with low inflation and rising real wages. Warsh wants to make that same bet on AI, and has said "the anecdotes will be there before the data. Policymakers will have to take a chance." But his first meeting as Fed Chair tells the more complicated near-term story. Today, Warsh held rates steady at 3.5 to 3.75%, the fourth consecutive hold and nearly half the committee signaled they want to hike rates before year end, with nine officials forecasting at least one increase. The reason AI infrastructure spending is currently inflationary before it is disinflationary, the $4 trillion global data center buildout is consuming steel, electrical equipment, land and skilled labor faster than it is producing productivity gains. Warsh notably did not submit a rate forecast dot at all, the only FOMC member not to, a deliberate signal that he refuses to box himself in. He also made a sweeping structural change to how the Fed communicates. Warsh stripped forward guidance from the policy statement entirely and has reduced the frequency of public Fed commentary, his philosophy being that markets should react to data, not to Fed predictions. This is a fundamental shift from the Powell era, and it means volatility around economic data releases goes up substantially from here.
3:00

The new Fed Chair just went on record saying AI is the biggest economic shift of his lifetime and markets are completely missing what that means (Save this). Kevin Warsh, the newly confirmed Fed Chair declared that artificial intelligence is "perhaps as important a change in the economy, business, and households as we've had in my adult lifetime." Before being nominated, Warsh called the current moment the most productivity-enhancing wave of our lifetimes, past, present, and future and argued in a Wall Street Journal that AI would be a significant disinflationary force that bolsters American competitiveness for decades. Warsh's core thesis is built on a direct parallel to the 1990s internet boom. He argues that the internet took a decade to show up in official productivity data, but the Fed under Greenspan took the bet early allowing the economy to run hotter than conventional models suggested and the result was a historic expansion with low inflation and rising real wages. Warsh wants to make that same bet on AI, and has said "the anecdotes will be there before the data. Policymakers will have to take a chance." But his first meeting as Fed Chair tells the more complicated near-term story. Today, Warsh held rates steady at 3.5 to 3.75%, the fourth consecutive hold and nearly half the committee signaled they want to hike rates before year end, with nine officials forecasting at least one increase. The reason AI infrastructure spending is currently inflationary before it is disinflationary, the $4 trillion global data center buildout is consuming steel, electrical equipment, land and skilled labor faster than it is producing productivity gains. Warsh notably did not submit a rate forecast dot at all, the only FOMC member not to, a deliberate signal that he refuses to box himself in. He also made a sweeping structural change to how the Fed communicates. Warsh stripped forward guidance from the policy statement entirely and has reduced the frequency of public Fed commentary, his philosophy being that markets should react to data, not to Fed predictions. This is a fundamental shift from the Powell era, and it means volatility around economic data releases goes up substantially from here.

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Leshka.eth ⛩

22,926 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

Warsh went hawkish when the market expected him to follow Bessent "What we had today was an expectation that Warsh would follow in his buddy Bessent's path. There were a lot of articles saying Bitcoin will or won't go up based on this, and this is the most important comments ever from a Fed chair for Bitcoin. I don't agree with any of that, but I can understand the reason they were saying so." "There were basically two paths Warsh could take. He could say yes, we're going to ease, we're going to lower interest rates, we are going to support the operations of the Treasury, we want to refinance the debt lower. Of course, none of these are the Fed's business, those are Treasury problems." "Or he could come in hawkish and say we have a strong economy and inflation is still a problem. He basically did the latter."
0:43

Warsh went hawkish when the market expected him to follow Bessent "What we had today was an expectation that Warsh would follow in his buddy Bessent's path. There were a lot of articles saying Bitcoin will or won't go up based on this, and this is the most important comments ever from a Fed chair for Bitcoin. I don't agree with any of that, but I can understand the reason they were saying so." "There were basically two paths Warsh could take. He could say yes, we're going to ease, we're going to lower interest rates, we are going to support the operations of the Treasury, we want to refinance the debt lower. Of course, none of these are the Fed's business, those are Treasury problems." "Or he could come in hawkish and say we have a strong economy and inflation is still a problem. He basically did the latter."

The Wolf Of All Streets

37,401 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

🚨 IF THIS BREAKS, MONDAY COULD BE A BLOODBATH The market is acting like nothing's wrong. That's the mistake. The Fed just hiked rates for the first time in over three years. Unanimous vote. And the dot plot says they're not done. Read this before futures open. Because once the bell rings, it may already be too late. Here's where we actually are: → Fed funds now at 3.75-4.00% → Another hike projected before year-end → Markets pricing three more by mid-2027 → PCE inflation at 3.7%, core at 3.4% → Oil above $100, diesel at record highs → 30-year yield at 5.28%, levels not seen since 2007 Most people are watching the headline. They're missing what's underneath. • Rate cuts are officially dead. • Liquidity is quietly draining. • Long-end yields are flashing stress. • Japan and China keep trimming Treasuries. • The whole index rests on a handful of AI names. Now imagine all of that colliding at once. That's not "buy the dip." That's how the floor gives out. And here's the part nobody wants to say out loud. The Nasdaq just closed at a record while the Fed was tightening into 3.7% inflation and $100 oil. That's not strength. That's denial. The Fed has two choices now: → Keep hiking and crack an overleveraged market. Or... → Pause and let inflation run with oil above $100. The market isn't priced for either one. If long-end yields break higher while growth slows, Monday won't look like an ordinary red day. Stocks. Crypto. Bitcoin. Gold. Everything gets hit at once. Because when liquidity disappears, funds don't sell what they want. They sell what they can. I've been ahead of every major SPX breakdown and called the BTC cycle top while everyone was still screaming "new ATH." I'm watching this one the same way. Follow now. You'll either thank me next week... or wish you had...
0:20

🚨 IF THIS BREAKS, MONDAY COULD BE A BLOODBATH The market is acting like nothing's wrong. That's the mistake. The Fed just hiked rates for the first time in over three years. Unanimous vote. And the dot plot says they're not done. Read this before futures open. Because once the bell rings, it may already be too late. Here's where we actually are: → Fed funds now at 3.75-4.00% → Another hike projected before year-end → Markets pricing three more by mid-2027 → PCE inflation at 3.7%, core at 3.4% → Oil above $100, diesel at record highs → 30-year yield at 5.28%, levels not seen since 2007 Most people are watching the headline. They're missing what's underneath. • Rate cuts are officially dead. • Liquidity is quietly draining. • Long-end yields are flashing stress. • Japan and China keep trimming Treasuries. • The whole index rests on a handful of AI names. Now imagine all of that colliding at once. That's not "buy the dip." That's how the floor gives out. And here's the part nobody wants to say out loud. The Nasdaq just closed at a record while the Fed was tightening into 3.7% inflation and $100 oil. That's not strength. That's denial. The Fed has two choices now: → Keep hiking and crack an overleveraged market. Or... → Pause and let inflation run with oil above $100. The market isn't priced for either one. If long-end yields break higher while growth slows, Monday won't look like an ordinary red day. Stocks. Crypto. Bitcoin. Gold. Everything gets hit at once. Because when liquidity disappears, funds don't sell what they want. They sell what they can. I've been ahead of every major SPX breakdown and called the BTC cycle top while everyone was still screaming "new ATH." I'm watching this one the same way. Follow now. You'll either thank me next week... or wish you had...

Qmo

184,288 görüntüleme • 1 gün önce

Kevin Warsh just ended his first ever FOMC meeting as Fed chair. His message to markets: "I can't give you any guidance on what we're going to do next." Here is what he said: 1. Inflation is still way above the Fed's 2% target and prices are too high for most people 2. "We will fix five years of misses on inflation", he is directly saying the previous Fed failed 3. The Fed will no longer tell you in advance what it plans to do with interest rates 4. He watches stock market prices more than anything else when making decisions 5. Interest rates are hurting the housing market but are not slowing down financial markets 6. All 19 members at the table agreed not to raise rates today 7. The 2% inflation target is not changing 8. He refused to say whether bond yields rising after today's decision concerns him 9. He refused to say whether he has spoken to Trump since becoming Fed chair Under Powell, the Fed always told markets what was coming next. Under Warsh, that is gone.
0:29

Kevin Warsh just ended his first ever FOMC meeting as Fed chair. His message to markets: "I can't give you any guidance on what we're going to do next." Here is what he said: 1. Inflation is still way above the Fed's 2% target and prices are too high for most people 2. "We will fix five years of misses on inflation", he is directly saying the previous Fed failed 3. The Fed will no longer tell you in advance what it plans to do with interest rates 4. He watches stock market prices more than anything else when making decisions 5. Interest rates are hurting the housing market but are not slowing down financial markets 6. All 19 members at the table agreed not to raise rates today 7. The 2% inflation target is not changing 8. He refused to say whether bond yields rising after today's decision concerns him 9. He refused to say whether he has spoken to Trump since becoming Fed chair Under Powell, the Fed always told markets what was coming next. Under Warsh, that is gone.

Bull Theory

1,040,527 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on what the Fed did to its own balance sheet: "no one told the Fed that you're not supposed to buy high. They paid a high price for bonds at low interest rates. The Fed is losing about a hundred billion dollars a year now" this is him explaining why he calls the Fed the engine of inequality, the study that pins 60% of the great inflation on one thing, and what he says is coming for Main Street in 2026 "Bernanke was asked what's the purpose of QE. He told everyone go buy equities. Well, not everyone could buy equities" "there's a study from MIT that 42% of the great inflation was caused by the budget deficit. Another 17% by inflation expectations. That's almost 60% caused by the spending" "markets are biology. They're not math, they're not physics. This idea that we can have decimal point certainty is absurd" bookmark & watch the full conversation - then read the article below ↓
27:32

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on what the Fed did to its own balance sheet: "no one told the Fed that you're not supposed to buy high. They paid a high price for bonds at low interest rates. The Fed is losing about a hundred billion dollars a year now" this is him explaining why he calls the Fed the engine of inequality, the study that pins 60% of the great inflation on one thing, and what he says is coming for Main Street in 2026 "Bernanke was asked what's the purpose of QE. He told everyone go buy equities. Well, not everyone could buy equities" "there's a study from MIT that 42% of the great inflation was caused by the budget deficit. Another 17% by inflation expectations. That's almost 60% caused by the spending" "markets are biology. They're not math, they're not physics. This idea that we can have decimal point certainty is absurd" bookmark & watch the full conversation - then read the article below ↓

Сarm1ne

49,839 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce