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EXCLUSIVE Interview: Tesla’s Untapped $2 Trillion Jackpot Cern Basher Cern Basher back with a must watch for all $TSLA investors It blew my mind when he showed 50k Tesla Semis RoboTrucking will add nearly $1K per share! Tesla's Semi Factory will start volume production next year and soon building...

85,190 görüntüleme • 10 ay önce •via X (Twitter)

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ROBOTRUCKING (Tesla semi + FSD 14) can be more profitable than robotaxi. Everyone is missing the potential profitability and stock impact of Tesla's Semi truck equipped with Full Self-Driving (FSD), transforming it into a robotruck. FSD is making solid progress in Austin and FSD 14 will be released in September with 10X the parameters. Test pilot production has started for Tesla Semi as the factory in Nevada is done. Farzad 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 Herbert Ong Dave Lee Warren Redlich - Chasing Dreams 🇺🇸 Randy Kirk stevenmarkryan Sawyer Merritt ARK Invest Elon Musk Robotrucks could generate 10x the profit of Tesla's Cybercab robo taxis, with each truck potentially yielding $650,000 in annual profit compared to $50,000–$70,000 per year for a robotaxi. This is driven by trucks' ability to operate 22 hours/day, covering 200,000–350,000 miles/year (4–7x more than taxis), while maintaining similar revenue per mile ($2–$2.60) and lower costs (32–34 cents/mile total ownership cost without drivers). Production is ramping up to 50,000 units/year, and FSD is progressing rapidly. Unlike robo taxis, which may face revenue drops competing with personal cars (down to 70 cents/mile), trucking is purely commercial with a stable $2 trillion global market. This will drive massive Tesla valuation growth: conservative estimates add $3,000–$6,000 to share price by 2030, while capturing the full market could reach $80 trillion (including robotaxis) in share value. Optimus robots could further boost efficiency and demand by 4x, enabling new logistics and economic growth.

nextbigfuture

63,408 görüntüleme • 11 ay önce

🚨 AI + Tesla Optimus is about to rewrite the global economy. In our latest episode with Cern Basher, we break down why Tesla’s humanoid robots + robotaxis could drive double-digit GDP growth… and why this could ignite a Bitcoin supercycle. Key takeaways: - $TSLA Optimus ramp: 1M → 10M robots/year - One robot factory could generate output comparable to the GDP of an entire country - Robotaxis scaling could happen MUCH faster than Wall Street expects - AI agents will flood cyberspace… and Bitcoin may become the security gate - “AI consumes compute. Bitcoin prices compute.” - Strategy’s flywheel $MSTR + $STRC could be setting up the next massive phase This episode connects the dots between AI deflation, government printing, and why $BTC may become the backbone of the AI economy. 00:00 Introduction Cern Basher 02:11 AI Agents Pick Bitcoin (It’s Already Happening) 03:01 Elon’s Master Plan: xAI + SpaceX + Tesla Merger? 06:34 Why Bitcoin Might Be the BEST AI Investment 10:43 “AI Consumes Compute… Bitcoin Prices Compute” 13:46 MSTR / Strategy: Why Bitcoin Treasury Companies Win 19:16 Strategy’s New Flywheel: STRC + ATM Explained 25:04 Elon Predicts Double-Digit GDP Growth (Is He Right?) 34:55 Tesla Optimus Timeline: 1M → 10M Robots Per Year 40:16 Tesla Robotaxis Are Scaling FAST (Doubling Every Month?) 43:11 Why Robotaxi Delays Don’t Matter (Tesla Still Wins) 46:46 When Will Tesla Start Buying Bitcoin Again? 50:05 Nvidia + Bitcoin? Big Tech May Flip Soon 53:18 Why Most People STILL Don’t Understand Bitcoin 56:00 US Military Studying Bitcoin for Cybersecurity? 59:27 Final Warning: Every Country Must Build Robot Factories

One Chair

17,947 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce

I've never heard Elon Musk be so bullish on Tesla ⚡️ here's my video analysis of the $TSLA Q4 2024 earnings call: -Robotaxi launch in Austin, June 2025 -California & other states launch robotaxi late 2025 -Cybercab in 2026 -Optimus V1 in 2025, 1K/month production line -Optimus V2 in 2026, 10K/month production line -2026 good year for Tesla, 2027/28 insanely good & more!! Timestamps- 0:00 Intro 0:44 Elon Opening Remarks 13:29 SAY Retail Questions 22:37 Analyst Questions 25:04 Gali Final Thoughts/Rant also here are my notes I typed during the conference call if you're interested! (may be errors) Tesla Q4 2024 Earnings Call Notes INTRO- ELON OPENING REMARKS -Q4 set record, delivered cars at rate of almost 2M cars/year -Model Y best-selling vehicle of any kind on earth (elon focused and talking quickly) -10Xing on autonomy, not doubling -many investments made this year that will bear immense fruit in the future, for AI -see a path for Tesla to the worlds most valuable company by far, worth more than the next 5 companies combined, difficult but achievable path -overwhelmingly due to autonomous vehicles and autonomous robots -setting up for an epic 2026, and ridiculously good 2027 and 2028 -meeting FSD now is like meeting a toddler -human intuition is linear, we’re seeing exponential progress -#1 recommendation is try it -typical passenger car has 10 hours of use out of 168, when its autonomous, itll be used for 55 hours a week … can deliver packages in the middle of thenight, or supply restaurants, all hours of the day or night. 5X increase in utility -more on self driving, continued improvements in safety numbers, much safer to use FSD -V14 will be another big step from V13 -launched CORTEX training cluster at Giga Austin, big step for FSD, continue to invest in training needs -Optimus training needs are about 10X what’s needed for the car -cost of training is dropping dramatically over time -Optimus has potential to be north of $10T in revenue, can put a lot training compute into that situation, even pumping $500B into it would be a good deal -future very different from the past, incredible inflection point in human history -proof is in the pudding -launching in June this year in Austin, already have cars moving autonomously in Fremont, thousands of cars per day driving, soon in Austin then elsewhere in the world -toe in the water at first to make sure everything is cool, but we have a general solution for autonomy , then put a few more toes, then a foot. Safety of the general public and those in the car as the top priority -with regard to Optimus, making insane revenue projections that sound insane, i realize that. But i think they will prove to be accurate -several thousand bots made this year, they will be doing useful things by the end of this year, im confidence, production design one at the tesla factories, then will learn for production design two -ramp optimus production faster than anything has ever launched, doesn’t take very many years before we’er making 100M of these things per year , 500% growth per year -tried using all these suppliers to get it to build Optimus, but nothing worked, had to build it internally from first principles, the hand is increibdle -long term Optimus will be the value of the company -back to Energy,/earth, -energy storage is a big deal, becoming more important, enables far greater energy output to the grid than is currently possible. -grid has no storage, designed for peak storage, lots of waste -once you have grid energy storage, the potential of the grid is unlocked, at least double -this will drive demand of battery packs as to as much as we can possibly make -shanghai factory starting operation, starting another factory -cant shoot our selves in the foot, battery capacity can only go into storage or mobility, so always making that tradeoff -demand for total Gigawatt hours for batteries, transportation or stationary will grow in a very big way over time 2025 a pivotal year for tesla, launch of full self driving, biggest year in tesla history, maybe even bigger than first car or model s, 3 or y … probably most important year in tesla’s history I don’t even know who is in 2nd place in real world AI, would need a telescope to see them SAY QUESTIONS -FSD Unsupervised launched in California this year as well -most likely release it in many regions of the US by the end of this year -40K people day everyday no mention, some scrapes a shin with autonomous car its headlines news -need to use insane amounts of caution -discussions about licensing FSD? Yes -best way to know to work with us, bbuy a car and take it apart -only worth very high volume cars/production partners -tesla engineering very focused on getting it to roll out for tesla first -soon will be obvious that if you don’t have FSD you’re dead as an OEM -is Optimus design locked? -Optimus is not design locked, constantly iterating, best robotics engineers in the world, and other ingredients, battery pack, charging, great electronics, great communications, great connectivity, real world AI, then you need to scale that production to real world levels -prototypes are easy production is hard -thijs year close loop with using optimus internally at tesla, would could obviously use a few thousand robots for the most boring annoying tasks at the company -with production version 2, launches sometime next year, would like beginning, might be middle though, -production line will be doing 10K units per month capacity for v2, first line designing is for roughly 1,000 units per month, then next line will be for 100,000 units per month -could start delivering them late next year, will go so fast, will ramp like crazy, demand will not be a problem, even at a high price, once were above 1M units per year, production costs of optimus will be less than $20,000 -if you compare complexity of optimus to complexity of a car, its much less than a car -price of optimus will be set buy market demand -Semi ramping next year, TCO no brainer, like optimus, will be massive demand, will meaningfully contribute to tesla’s revenue at scale -tesla semi with autonomy, is incredibly valuable -we actually have a shortage of truck drivers here in the US -will HW3 owners need a hardware update, got 12.6 which is like a baby v13, have’t given up on it, releases will trail HW4 releases … “honest answer” is were going to have to upgrade for those who have bought full self driving, will be painful and difficult and we’ll get it done “Happy not many people bought FSD” -solar roof, given up on ramping it? -lots of customer interest despite premium, making easier to install, focused on growth through certified installers, many been installing for many years -supply product to the roofing industry -it’s a premium product like S/X -combined with Tesla powerwall you can be self sufficient for several days ANALYST QUETIONS -robotaxis in Austin and several other cities this year, and next year all over america -america innovates, europe regulates, to release FSD in europe, have to go through massive paperwork through netherlands, then presents to EU in may, some big country committee, nothing we can do to make it happen sooner. -can’t do training in china with video training, publicly available videos in china are being run through the tesla system to be used for training, bus lanes are complicated and a big challenge -tesla can keep manufacturing even if geopolitical tensions rise to very high levels -Pierre question on June in Austin, -can i try unsupervised myself, or will it be the Tesla fleet? -it will be the Tesla fleet testing it, that’s the toe in the water, scrutinizing everything -autonomous ride hailing for money in june -probably next year for you to put your car on network -trump removing EV incentives? -all transport will go electric, can’t be stopped, even planes, will be like stopping the steam engine or combustion engine -only thing holding back EVs was range, and thats a solved problem -right now solving battery production, not demand, big battery retooling for model y coming up, short term impact on output

Gali

78,874 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

The Cybercab is aiming to produce 2 million units per year. Let this sink in. Today, Tesla produces about ~1.7 million vehicles per year total, across its entire lineup. And now Tesla is preparing to outproduce that with one single vehicle, a fully autonomous one. This is Elon and Tesla going ALL-IN on autonomy. Production is scheduled to start April 2026 at Giga Texas, with volume ramping throughout the year. And as of early 2026, Cybercab prototypes are already being tested around the U.S. The Tesla Cybercab is built from the ground up for unsupervised autonomy. There is no steering wheel and no pedals, just cameras, AI, and Tesla’s custom inference computers. No lidar and radar like other companies, just pure vision and software. Elon put it best on the Q3 2024 earnings call: “It’s not just a revolutionary vehicle design, but a revolution in vehicle manufacturing that is also coming with the Cybercab.” That quote matters a lot bc that means the entire way a vehicle is manufactured is changing with the Cybercab. Tesla is designing what Elon calls “the machine that builds the machine.” The Cybercab uses Tesla’s unboxed manufacturing process, where major sections are built in parallel instead of one long assembly line. There are fewer parts, less steps & cost, and faster scale. That’s how you make 2 million Cybercabs per year possible. FYI, this is not going to be easy though. Elon has been brutally honest about production for many years: • “Prototypes are easy, production is hard.” • “The extreme difficulty of scaling production of new technology is poorly understood. It’s 1000% to 10,000% harder than making a few prototypes.” • “For cars, it’s maybe 100 times harder to design the manufacturing system than the car itself.” He reinforced this again in January 2026 when talking about Cybercab and Optimus on 𝕏: “Initial production is always very slow and follows an S-curve. The speed of the production ramp is inversely proportional to how many new parts and steps there are. For Cybercab and Optimus, almost everything is new, so the early production rate will be agonizingly slow - but eventually end up being insanely fast.” This is the key thing most people miss about Tesla manufacturing. Early output will be slow by design. Almost everything is new like the vehicle architecture, factory layout, AI hardware, and manufacturing flow. But once it works and clicks, it begins to scale hard. Tesla already proved they can do this. They survived Model 3 production hell. They turned Model Y into the BEST selling car in the world, of any kind. They ramped Cybertruck, which has over 30,000+ unique parts, to meaningful volume. Elon summed it up perfectly in 2024: “Compared to the insane pain of reaching high volume, positive margin production, prototypes are a piece of cake.” That’s why Tesla makes manufacturing look easy bc they already earned the scars from the last vehicle lineups. The Cybercab is aiming to be: 1/ Under $30,000 price 2/ ~$0.20 per mile operating cost 3/ 200+ mile range 4/ Up to 5x utilization vs personal cars 5/ Designed to run nearly nonstop 24/7 This is what you call manufacturing + AI + autonomy converging at scale. The competitors are still showing prototypes and demos, while Tesla is building new production lines, expanding factories, and actually building the product. I remember when Elon told me in the past that one of Tesla’s key advantage long term was going to be manufacturing technology. I get it now.

Teslaconomics

31,985 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce

A couple that makes $20k/mo will live a comfortable life in Toronto, Canada. Let me walk you through it $20k per month is $240k a year. Let’s say each person makes $120,000 per year In Ontario: Federal tax: $18,812.49 Provincial tax: $10,128.16 CPP contributions: $4,055.50 EI premiums $1,049.12 Net pay: $85,954.73 per person per year or $7,162.89 per person per month. Who are we talking about? A couple. No kids. For a couple: Net pay: $171,909.46 per year or $14,325.79 per month. What does “comfortable” mean? Let us say you are: - not living pay check to pay check - filling retirement accounts - paying for food, clothing, shelter, transportation Let us start: TFSA (equivalent to U.S. Roth IRA): $7,000 per adult per year, or $14k per couple per year total. But each person contributed $21,600 to their RRSP, paid $30,000 in tax, and had a refund of $8,900 which they used for their TFSA with $1,900 per person to spare. RRSP (equivalent to U.S. 401k/403b): $21,600 per adult, or $43,200 total per couple. For retirement (TFSA & RRSP): $43,200 per year or $3,600 per month. Let’s move to shelter: A 1b1b condo in Toronto costs $720,000. This should be affordable for a gross household income of $240,000 per year based on the 20/30/3 rule for buying a home: 1. 20% down 2. Shelter costs less than 30% gross household income 3. Shelter price less than 3x gross household income If no downpayment the couple needs to find $144,000 for downpayment, $13,275 land transfer tax (assuming first time home buyer otherwise $21,750) and legal. $162k+ Minimum. Monthly mortgage is $3,400 per month (20% down, 5.1% interest, 25 year amortization) Plus: Utilities Insurance Property tax Landscaping Maintenance Capital expenditures You get the picture. If non-recoverable shelter cost is 2% this is $14,400 per year or $1,200 per month. Let’s keep it simple and say that shelter equivalent is $4,600 per month Next add the following: Groceries: $1,000/mo Car: $1,000/mo (includes monthly payment, maintenance, insurance, gas) We are at $10,200 per month. ($3,600 retirement + $4,600 shelter + $1,000 food + $1,000 transportation) Now add: $200/mo Emergency fund $200/mo. Phone & Internet $400/mo Eating out $200/mo Entertainment $500/mo Clothes, Fitness, Grooming, Travel Total of $1,500 We are at $11,700 per month. This couple has $2,700 per month to spare and can consider having a child and/or a second car. Statistics Canada calculated that raising a child from birth until the age of 18 years of age will cost $1,400 per month. This excludes saving for the child’s post-secondary education in an RESP. In short to live a comfortable life in Toronto with adaquate contributions to retirement, money for shelter, food, clothing, transportation, entertainment, and a future that may include having a child, a couple needs to make $20k/mo. Otherwise we just decide to sacrifice, and live without something listed above. Get financially literate. You got this! 🙌

Lazy Canadian Investor

1,654,290 görüntüleme • 2 yıl önce

Everything Elon said about Optimus on the Q4 2024 earnings call: ⦿ I see a path for Tesla to be the most valuable company in the world, possibly bigger than the next five companies combined, overwhelmingly due to autonomous vehicles and autonomous humanoid robots. ⦿ The training compute needed for Optimus will ultimately probably be 10× what is needed for cars. Humanoids likely have 1,000× more useS than a car, which doesn't mean training scales by 1,000×, but probably close to 10×. The training compute will scale progressively as Optimus becomes more productive. ⦿ Long-term, Optimus has the potential to generate $10 trillion in revenue. In that scenario, we can support a lot of training compute. Even $500 billion in training compute is a good deal (chuckles). ⦿ There's a lot of uncertainty with timing because several aspects are being iterated simultaneously. The internal plan is for roughly 10,000 robots to be built this year, but we'll more likely produce several thousand. ⦿ I'm confident those several thousand robots will be able to do useful things. ⦿ The lessons from Production V1 will inform the changes in Production V2, which we expect to launch around mid-next year. ⦿ Our goal, aspirationally, is to ramp 10× every year, but perhaps we end up with 5× growth per year. With that kind of growth, it won't be many years before we're making 100 million robots a year. ⦿ The off-the-shelf components didn't work well, so we had to design everything in-house, including the most sophisticated hand ever made. Optimus will be able to play a piano and thread a needle. ⦿ My long-term prediction is that Optimus will overwhelmingly be the value of the company. ⦿ Optimus is not design-locked. It is rapidly evolving in a good direction. Tesla has by far the best humanoid robotics engineers in the world. Tesla also has all the other necessary ingredients: battery pack, power electronics, charging, communications, real-world AI, and the ability to scale production. ⦿ What other companies are missing is real-world AI and the ability to scale to millions of units a year. ⦿ This year, we aim to use Optimus internally at Tesla. We can easily use several thousand robots at Tesla for repetitive tasks, such as loading sheet metal at the welding line. ⦿ The Production V1 line is roughly 1,000 units per month. The Production V2, launching around mid-next year, will be for 10k units per month. The line after that will be for 100k units a month. Of course, it takes time for any given line to reach its maximum potential. ⦿ A very rough guess: we'll start delivering Optimus to companies outside of Tesla in the second half of 2026. The ramp is going to be exponential, and demand will not be a problem. ⦿ Once we're above 1 million units per year, the production cost of Optimus will be less than $20,000. Its total mass and complexity are much lower than a car. At a similar production volume to the Model Y, Optimus should be about half the cost of a Model Y. ⦿ The price is a different matter than cost. The price of Optimus will be set by market demand. [This is by far the longest Elon has ever spent discussing Optimus on an earnings call.]

The Humanoid Hub

96,475 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

SpaceX is going public on Nasdaq today under ticker SPCX and Elon Musk just showed you exactly what he is building (Save this). Elon Musk is standing inside a Gigabay being built to produce 1,000 Starships per year. He says a second facility is going up in Florida, so two factories, each designed at a scale that by some measures will make them the largest structures ever built. And then he said that the Starlink V3 satellites, each the size of a 737, manufactured at a rate of 5,000 to 10,000 per year. Tesla at its peak is still building far more complex manufactured tonnage than SpaceX which is his way of saying that 1,000 Starships a year is not science fiction, but rather an engineering problem that humans have already solved in other industries. That framing is the entire bull case. SpaceX priced at $135 per share, raising $75 billion at a $1.77 trillion valuation, the largest IPO ever recorded. The deal was well oversubscribed before the roadshow even closed. But the number that matters is not the valuation, it is the production target. SpaceX's prospectus identifies $28.5 trillion in total addressable markets across broadband, AI infrastructure, and space. When Musk says he is building Starships at the scale of commercial aviation, he is telling you the infrastructure layer underneath the entire AI economy is about to get a new backbone. The market will price that in starting today. Come join Milk Road Pro for our full breakdown, how to think about SPCX as part of an AI infrastructure portfolio, and out entire AI thesis. Link below!

Milk Road AI

48,270 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

Elon Musk: Why a 1 Terawatt AI is impossible on Earth?? "My estimate is that the cost-effectiveness of AI in space will be overwhelmingly better than AI on the ground. So, long before you exhaust potential energy sources on Earth, meaning perhaps in the four or five-year timeframe, the lowest cost way to do AI compute will be with solar-powered AI satellites. I'd say not more than five years from now Just look at the supercomputers we're building together. Let's say each rack is two tons; out of that two tons, 1.95 of it is probably for cooling. Just imagine how tiny that little supercomputer is Electricity generation is already becoming a challenge. If you start doing any kind of scaling for both electricity generation and cooling, you realize space is incredibly compelling Let's say you wanted to do 200 or 300 gigawatts per year of AI compute. It's very difficult to do that on Earth. The US average electricity usage, last time I checked, was around 460 gigawatts per year. So, if you're doing 300 gigawatts a year, that would be like two-thirds of US electricity production per year. There's no way you're building power plants at that level And then if you take it up to a Terawatt per year, impossible. You have to do that in space In space, you've got continuous solar. You don't need batteries because it's always sunny. The solar panels actually become cheaper because you don't need glass or framing, and the cooling is just radiative"

X Freeze

446,323 görüntüleme • 7 ay önce

GOOD NEWS 🚨 DAN IVES PREDICTS TESLA WILL OWN '80%' OF ROBOTAXI MARKET — SAYS $TSLA IN HIS TOP 5 LIST FOR 2026 🆙 Ives is doubling down on Tesla as one of his top conviction picks for 2026, insisting that investors need to stop viewing it as a "car story" and start treating it as a robotics and AI play. He sees the stock fundamentally heading toward $1,000, with a current base case of $600 and a bull case of $800. According to Ives, this is a defining moment for Elon Musk—arguably his most important year ever—as the company fully commits to the AI path. He expects this pivot to unlock massive value, projecting a $2 trillion market cap over the coming year and a bull case where Tesla hits $3 trillion by the end of 2026. The real engine behind this growth is the Robotaxi network, which Ives views as integral to the company's future. He predicts Tesla will eventually corner 80% of the autonomous driving market. While he admits that competitors like Waymo have had a huge head start with "phenomenal technology," he argues that no one else can match the sheer scale and scope of Tesla's venture in the long run. To prove the concept is working, Ives is looking for Tesla to hit a specific benchmark this year: launching Robotaxis in 30 cities to achieve critical scale, expanding beyond their initial start in Austin and moving into markets like California. When it comes to the speed of this rollout, Ives is fully supportive of Musk’s "brick by brick" strategy rather than a rushed launch. He emphasizes that because lives are at stake, safety has to take priority; it is far more important to expand the geospaced areas correctly than to just do it quickly. Ultimately, while he acknowledges Nvidia as the chip fueling the broader AI revolution, he sees Tesla standing apart as the dominant force in the physical autonomous world.

Ming

29,004 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

Whenever I tell people when you buy a Tesla, make sure you eat the cost and buy FSD outright, a majority of people always tell me “FSD is too expensive at $8,000,” without actually looking at the data and numbers behind the true value of FSD. Well, I did. Back in 2019, Elon explained the Robotaxi economics very clearly. “What would be the probable gross profit from a single Robotaxi? We think probably something on the order of $30,000 per year.” BTW, this number also came from conservative assumptions. • ~90,000 miles per year • ~50% utilization (half the miles are non-revenue) • Operating cost around $0.18 per mile (fyi, gas cars are closer to $0.60!) • Tesla takes 25-30% of the revenue • Robotaxi designed to last ~1 million miles So after costs, after Tesla’s cut, and after conservative usage, the estimate still came out to $30,000 per year from a single Robotaxi. So let me do the simple math for you. If a Robotaxi generates $30,000 per year, and you assume just 10 years of useful Robotaxi life, even though the car is going to be designed for more: 1/ $30,000 × 10 years = $300,000 Now, let’s cut that number by 50% for uncertainty, downtime, or slower rollout… I’m being conservative here. 2/ $300,000 ÷ 2 = $150,000 That means the FSD value is NOT $8,000. It’s six figures! This is why every Tesla owner should buy FSD outright right now! And is also the reason why Tesla is ending this option in February imo. You see, this is what happens when you see FSD as an income generating business, instead of just a feature. FSD is SIGNIFICANTLY undervalued. And whenever I tell people that I’m going to be the biggest Tesla Robotaxi fleet operator one day and show the world how much $ I’m making for each Robotaxi in operation, they all still laugh at me in disbelief. (I hope Elon and Tesla will let me be one of the first owners when the time comes… 🤞) But I also know that people always doubted me my whole life… until things actually became real. That’s why I’ve never seen my Tesla as just a car that depreciates like other non-Teslas. It’s the exact opposite. And one day, when these cars are driving themselves and generating $ income for me while I’m sleeping, all of the doubters will become silent. Mark my words.

Teslaconomics

112,667 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

A single gigawatt of orbital compute requires roughly 200 Starship launches and Elon Musk is not satisfied with gigawatts (Save this). The target is 100 gigawatts of orbital compute per year which means SpaceX is staring down a launch requirement that no organization in human history has ever attempted at anything close to that scale. He acknowledges that scaling to gigawatts per year in orbit is a very hard challenge, but then points to something most people have missed entirely, SpaceX has already demonstrated the foundational capability, because building and launching thousands of Starlink satellites per year is the same industrial problem applied to a different payload. When you understand the orbital compute satellite as a larger version of Starlink V3 with an Nvidia GPU rack at the center instead of a communications payload, the manufacturing and launch scaling challenge stops looking like science fiction and starts looking like a production ramp. The infrastructure to support that ramp is already being built. SpaceX is currently capacitizing for thousands of launches per year, two launch towers and pads in South Texas are operational, the first pad at Cape Canaveral is nearly complete, a second is on the way at Launch Complex 37, and additional locations are already in discussion. As the CFO says it "You need to have those cost curves as you ramp up in volume and time, your costs go down." The vision he describes for what this eventually enables is striking in its specificity. He imagines asking Grok a question on his phone, the inference running on an orbital compute satellite, and the answer coming back down through Starlink direct-to-cell, a complete AI query processed entirely in space, from prompt to response, without touching a single terrestrial data center. That moment, he says, is closer than the industry thinks, with initial capability demonstrations possible as soon as next year. The bottleneck that stands between now and that moment is not the satellite design, the cooling physics, or the silicon, all of which SpaceX has already worked through.

Milk Road AI

67,791 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce