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"Expert" AI forecasters are actually really good at predicting developments 'internal' to AI, like progress on model benchmarks, but pretty bad at predicting what AI's real-world impact will be (and when it will show up). @thestalwart and John Coogan:

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@TheStalwart @johncoogan It would be great if your clips pointed to the actual show on Youtube.

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@TheStalwart @johncoogan my favourite framing of this is by @DAcemogluMIT. Engineers have accurately predicted that models have developed fast. Economists have accurately predicted that the real world impact has been minimal. That's perfect! They've both been right about their own areas of expertise

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