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"Expert" AI forecasters are actually really good at predicting developments 'internal' to AI, like progress on model benchmarks, but pretty bad at predicting what AI's real-world impact will be (and when it will show up). @thestalwart and John Coogan:

TBPN

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56,505 次观看 • 1 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

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Cloudbring (📎,📎) 的头像

Cloudbring (📎,📎)1 个月前

@TheStalwart @johncoogan It would be great if your clips pointed to the actual show on Youtube.

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lima1 个月前

@TheStalwart @johncoogan my favourite framing of this is by @DAcemogluMIT. Engineers have accurately predicted that models have developed fast. Economists have accurately predicted that the real world impact has been minimal. That's perfect! They've both been right about their own areas of expertise

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.Casey Neistat believes it's inevitable that AI video will get so good that even people who hate AI-generated content will have to admit when something is great. "I think it'll get to a point where something's made on AI that's 100% undeniably good." "It will force people to say, 'I hated it because it was made with AI, but it was a really good movie.'" "Eventually that negativity will start to wane." "I am highly optimistic that there are going to be these diamonds among lumps of coal that will have real impact and be meaningful."

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