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"Export controls have probably helped in the short term by preserving a gap between frontier AI labs and open-source competitors. But the long-term effect is less clear. By restricting access to chips, the US may be forcing China to become far better at building its own infrastructure, data centers,... show more

Harry Stebbings

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24,264 views • 3 months ago •via X (Twitter)

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"the only reason why there is even a 12-month gap between open source and frontier models is US export controls." Perplexity’s CEO Aravind Srinivas on why China’s open-source AI may become more powerful than ever. And why Anthropic has lobbied very hard for export control. "There is a chance that, because of the export controls, they now get really good at the physical layer. One advantage they (China) have is that they can actually build data centers a lot faster. Power is not a problem. Permits are not a problem. People are not a problem. Labor is not a problem. Expertise is not a problem. And so, by forcing them to go out there and build all this, you are converting them into a far more potent competitor." --- From "20VC with Harry Stebbings" YouTube channel (Harry Stebbings ), link in comment

"the only reason why there is even a 12-month gap between open source and frontier models is US export controls." Perplexity’s CEO Aravind Srinivas on why China’s open-source AI may become more powerful than ever. And why Anthropic has lobbied very hard for export control. "There is a chance that, because of the export controls, they now get really good at the physical layer. One advantage they (China) have is that they can actually build data centers a lot faster. Power is not a problem. Permits are not a problem. People are not a problem. Labor is not a problem. Expertise is not a problem. And so, by forcing them to go out there and build all this, you are converting them into a far more potent competitor." --- From "20VC with Harry Stebbings" YouTube channel (Harry Stebbings ), link in comment

Rohan Paul

34,754 views • 22 days ago

Aravind Srinivas just explained why China’s open-source AI may become more powerful than ever. And why Anthropic has lobbied very hard for export control. "the only reason why there is even a 12-month gap between open source and frontier models is export controls. But there is a chance that, because of that, they now get really good at the physical layer. One advantage they (China) have is that they can actually build data centers a lot faster. Power is not a problem. Permits are not a problem. People are not a problem. Labor is not a problem. Expertise is not a problem. And so, by forcing them to go out there and build all this, you are converting them into a far more potent competitor." --- From "20VC with Harry Stebbings" YouTube channel (Harry Stebbings ), link in comment

Aravind Srinivas just explained why China’s open-source AI may become more powerful than ever. And why Anthropic has lobbied very hard for export control. "the only reason why there is even a 12-month gap between open source and frontier models is export controls. But there is a chance that, because of that, they now get really good at the physical layer. One advantage they (China) have is that they can actually build data centers a lot faster. Power is not a problem. Permits are not a problem. People are not a problem. Labor is not a problem. Expertise is not a problem. And so, by forcing them to go out there and build all this, you are converting them into a far more potent competitor." --- From "20VC with Harry Stebbings" YouTube channel (Harry Stebbings ), link in comment

Rohan Paul

139,116 views • 3 months ago

Gavin Baker Gavin Baker says open source is "awesome" for AI infrastructure names because it shifts the economic value from the frontier labs to the infrastructure, and it is already 80% plus of all tokens processed. "A misconception that a lot of people have is that open source models are somehow bad for AI. They're awesome for the AI infrastructure providers. They just shift economic value from the margins of the frontier labs to the infrastructure." "But I do think there's still a role for these frontier models. And it may be true, to date, frontier tokens are capturing 90% of the economic value, and open source tokens are probably 80% plus of tokens processed, and those ratios may be here to stay." _______ Follow Fireside Alpha for more highlights of the best business and technology conversations.

Gavin Baker Gavin Baker says open source is "awesome" for AI infrastructure names because it shifts the economic value from the frontier labs to the infrastructure, and it is already 80% plus of all tokens processed. "A misconception that a lot of people have is that open source models are somehow bad for AI. They're awesome for the AI infrastructure providers. They just shift economic value from the margins of the frontier labs to the infrastructure." "But I do think there's still a role for these frontier models. And it may be true, to date, frontier tokens are capturing 90% of the economic value, and open source tokens are probably 80% plus of tokens processed, and those ratios may be here to stay." _______ Follow Fireside Alpha for more highlights of the best business and technology conversations.

Fireside Alpha

162,832 views • 2 months ago

JUST IN 🚨 : Jensen Huang explained how blocking China from Nvidia does not anymore means blocking China from AI. If you don’t give your competitor the best chips, they will lag behind. This is how export control stories go. China is not waiting at the door of American computer systems anymore. Huawei’s rise is an example of a ban becoming an economic boost. It creates a market and teaches domestic suppliers how to get stronger, grow and export. Now the real battle is over who controls the chips, the talent, the energy, the infrastructure, the models, the apps and the whole intelligence stack. Thinking of chip policy as a valve that can be opened and closed is wrong. Each barrier slows down one flow while speeding up another. In the long run, the threat may be to a world in which American technology is absent from the systems that the US wishes to change. --- From "Fox Business" YouTube channel, (full video link in comment)

JUST IN 🚨 : Jensen Huang explained how blocking China from Nvidia does not anymore means blocking China from AI. If you don’t give your competitor the best chips, they will lag behind. This is how export control stories go. China is not waiting at the door of American computer systems anymore. Huawei’s rise is an example of a ban becoming an economic boost. It creates a market and teaches domestic suppliers how to get stronger, grow and export. Now the real battle is over who controls the chips, the talent, the energy, the infrastructure, the models, the apps and the whole intelligence stack. Thinking of chip policy as a valve that can be opened and closed is wrong. Each barrier slows down one flow while speeding up another. In the long run, the threat may be to a world in which American technology is absent from the systems that the US wishes to change. --- From "Fox Business" YouTube channel, (full video link in comment)

Hasan

29,479 views • 2 months ago

Jensen Huang explained how blocking China from Nvidia does not anymore means blocking China from AI. If you don’t give your competitor the best chips, they will lag behind. This is how export control stories go. China is not waiting at the door of American computer systems anymore. Huawei’s rise is an example of a ban becoming an economic boost. It creates a market and teaches domestic suppliers how to get stronger, grow and export. Now the real battle is over who controls the chips, the talent, the energy, the infrastructure, the models, the apps and the whole intelligence stack. Thinking of chip policy as a valve that can be opened and closed is wrong. Each barrier slows down one flow while speeding up another. In the long run, the threat may be to a world in which American technology is absent from the systems that the US wishes to change. --- From "Fox Business" YouTube channel, (full video link in comment)

Jensen Huang explained how blocking China from Nvidia does not anymore means blocking China from AI. If you don’t give your competitor the best chips, they will lag behind. This is how export control stories go. China is not waiting at the door of American computer systems anymore. Huawei’s rise is an example of a ban becoming an economic boost. It creates a market and teaches domestic suppliers how to get stronger, grow and export. Now the real battle is over who controls the chips, the talent, the energy, the infrastructure, the models, the apps and the whole intelligence stack. Thinking of chip policy as a valve that can be opened and closed is wrong. Each barrier slows down one flow while speeding up another. In the long run, the threat may be to a world in which American technology is absent from the systems that the US wishes to change. --- From "Fox Business" YouTube channel, (full video link in comment)

Rohan Paul

721,917 views • 2 months ago

Elon Musk explains how data centers in Space could help the US compete with China in AI “Given that Chinese AI companies are doing as well as they are with a relatively small amount of compute, it seems that if they had a lot of compute, there’s a good chance they would be the leaders. The constraints on AI are essentially electricity and AI chips. China is very strong in digital AI, and it has far more electricity than the United States. In fact, China already has more electricity than the United States, Europe and India combined. The US government can prevent US companies from using Chinese models, but it can’t stop the rest of the world from using them. That won’t stop China from becoming the leader in AI. Digital intelligence comes down to how much AI compute, how many chips and how much electricity you have. The current constraint is electricity outside China. In China, the constraint is chips. China is also closer than most people realize to solving the lithography problem, which would enable it to make AI chips in very large volumes. Once we address the power constraint with AI data centers in space, the constraint will once again be chips outside China.”

Elon Musk explains how data centers in Space could help the US compete with China in AI “Given that Chinese AI companies are doing as well as they are with a relatively small amount of compute, it seems that if they had a lot of compute, there’s a good chance they would be the leaders. The constraints on AI are essentially electricity and AI chips. China is very strong in digital AI, and it has far more electricity than the United States. In fact, China already has more electricity than the United States, Europe and India combined. The US government can prevent US companies from using Chinese models, but it can’t stop the rest of the world from using them. That won’t stop China from becoming the leader in AI. Digital intelligence comes down to how much AI compute, how many chips and how much electricity you have. The current constraint is electricity outside China. In China, the constraint is chips. China is also closer than most people realize to solving the lithography problem, which would enable it to make AI chips in very large volumes. Once we address the power constraint with AI data centers in space, the constraint will once again be chips outside China.”

DogeDesigner

247,169 views • 2 months ago

VIDEO | India AI Summit 2026: AAP MP Raghav Chadha says, "In the 21st century, the levers of power will essentially be controlled by those who have access to AI, GPUs, compute capability and data centres. That was the key element of my argument, how India needs to build its own compute capability. Today, we are in an AI ecosystem where there is, in some sense, a monopoly. Design is controlled by one company based in the US, while nearly 90 per cent of chip manufacturing and fabrication is controlled by a company based in Taiwan. Then there are export controls, where certain countries, particularly the US, have defined these chips, GPUs and the entire AI architecture as strategic assets and imposed controls on their export." #PTIAtAIImpactSummit #IndiaAIImpactSummit2026 #AIImpactSummit2026 (Full video available on

VIDEO | India AI Summit 2026: AAP MP Raghav Chadha says, "In the 21st century, the levers of power will essentially be controlled by those who have access to AI, GPUs, compute capability and data centres. That was the key element of my argument, how India needs to build its own compute capability. Today, we are in an AI ecosystem where there is, in some sense, a monopoly. Design is controlled by one company based in the US, while nearly 90 per cent of chip manufacturing and fabrication is controlled by a company based in Taiwan. Then there are export controls, where certain countries, particularly the US, have defined these chips, GPUs and the entire AI architecture as strategic assets and imposed controls on their export." #PTIAtAIImpactSummit #IndiaAIImpactSummit2026 #AIImpactSummit2026 (Full video available on

Press Trust of India

47,600 views • 7 months ago

.Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸 says the winner of the US-China AI race could dictate what all 8 billion people on Earth use — but open source introduces a third possibility: "The stakes are basically: what is the world going to run on?" "In the long run, somebody's gonna win. And the world will either be running on American AI or be running on Chinese AI." "The open source thing is super fascinating because it throws a wrench into all of this. It raises a third possibility that neither the US nor China are going to be the platform — it may just be open source." Marc Andreessen with Jeetu Patel at Cisco AI Summit

.Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸 says the winner of the US-China AI race could dictate what all 8 billion people on Earth use — but open source introduces a third possibility: "The stakes are basically: what is the world going to run on?" "In the long run, somebody's gonna win. And the world will either be running on American AI or be running on Chinese AI." "The open source thing is super fascinating because it throws a wrench into all of this. It raises a third possibility that neither the US nor China are going to be the platform — it may just be open source." Marc Andreessen with Jeetu Patel at Cisco AI Summit

a16z

101,985 views • 8 months ago

🇺🇸 Bret Johnsen says Starship, Starlink, and massive data centers are becoming the backbone of the next technological era. As AI's demand for computing power explodes, SpaceX is building the infrastructure to connect, power, and scale it globally. The race for AI dominance may not be won by software alone… but it could depend on who controls the infrastructure of Earth and space. Source: SpaceX, Gavin Baker, Elon Musk / Writer: Val

🇺🇸 Bret Johnsen says Starship, Starlink, and massive data centers are becoming the backbone of the next technological era. As AI's demand for computing power explodes, SpaceX is building the infrastructure to connect, power, and scale it globally. The race for AI dominance may not be won by software alone… but it could depend on who controls the infrastructure of Earth and space. Source: SpaceX, Gavin Baker, Elon Musk / Writer: Val

Mario Nawfal

29,963 views • 4 months ago

🇺🇸🇨🇳 U.S. TRADE AMBASSADOR: CHINA JUST ORDERED THE WORLD TO SEEK ITS APPROVAL FOR EXPORTS “What the Chinese have done, in short, is they’ve ordered the entire world that they have to submit for approval and permission by the Chinese government to export any kinds of materials that include rare earths that have been touched, processed, or mined by China. This could include cars, microwaves with chips, even defense materials. China has taken this action, which is quite extreme.” Source: Bret Baier

🇺🇸🇨🇳 U.S. TRADE AMBASSADOR: CHINA JUST ORDERED THE WORLD TO SEEK ITS APPROVAL FOR EXPORTS “What the Chinese have done, in short, is they’ve ordered the entire world that they have to submit for approval and permission by the Chinese government to export any kinds of materials that include rare earths that have been touched, processed, or mined by China. This could include cars, microwaves with chips, even defense materials. China has taken this action, which is quite extreme.” Source: Bret Baier

Mario Nawfal

721,337 views • 1 year ago

In the 20th century, power depended on OIL and STEEL. In the 21st century, power depends on AI, CHIPS and COMPUTE CAPABILITY. At AI Summit 2026 India, I spoke about why the GPU challenge is not just a ‘supply chain issue’ but a ‘sovereignty issue’. In the AI century, power will rest with those who control chips, compute capacity and data centres. Today, design monopolies, manufacturing concentration and export controls determine who gets access. India controls none of these critical levers. We have the talent. We have the ambition. We have the intent. We have the capital. But talent without compute is aspiration. And compute without sovereignty is dependence. The role of policymakers is not to slow AI down; it is to remove bottlenecks, diversify access, set clear national targets, and build sovereign AI infrastructure in India. This is not partisan. It is strategic. #IndiaAIImpactSummit2026 #AI #ResponsibleAI #ArtificialIntelligence #BharatMandapam

In the 20th century, power depended on OIL and STEEL. In the 21st century, power depends on AI, CHIPS and COMPUTE CAPABILITY. At AI Summit 2026 India, I spoke about why the GPU challenge is not just a ‘supply chain issue’ but a ‘sovereignty issue’. In the AI century, power will rest with those who control chips, compute capacity and data centres. Today, design monopolies, manufacturing concentration and export controls determine who gets access. India controls none of these critical levers. We have the talent. We have the ambition. We have the intent. We have the capital. But talent without compute is aspiration. And compute without sovereignty is dependence. The role of policymakers is not to slow AI down; it is to remove bottlenecks, diversify access, set clear national targets, and build sovereign AI infrastructure in India. This is not partisan. It is strategic. #IndiaAIImpactSummit2026 #AI #ResponsibleAI #ArtificialIntelligence #BharatMandapam

Raghav Chadha

70,153 views • 7 months ago

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang breaks the myth: The US–China AI competition isn’t about one chip or one model, it’s a five-layer ecosystem. Energy, chips, infrastructure, models, applications. And on four of them, China is already ahead or catching up faster than sanctions can stop. When America bans, China builds. When export controls tighten, China accelerates. You don’t slow a rival by locking the gate, you only teach them how to build their own house.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang breaks the myth: The US–China AI competition isn’t about one chip or one model, it’s a five-layer ecosystem. Energy, chips, infrastructure, models, applications. And on four of them, China is already ahead or catching up faster than sanctions can stop. When America bans, China builds. When export controls tighten, China accelerates. You don’t slow a rival by locking the gate, you only teach them how to build their own house.

𝘊𝘰𝘳𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘦

45,130 views • 10 months ago

🇺🇸 ELON MUSK ON THE AI ENGAME. ''For the next few years, America is likely to win the AI race.'' Then it becomes a question of who controls the AI chip fabrication. If more of the factories are owned by China, China will win. Right now almost all the advanced factories are in Taiwan. ''If China invades Taiwan in the near term, the world will be cut off from advanced AI chips.'' "It's essential for national security that we begin manufacturing our own chips in the US." My take: China might not even need to invade. Huawei and other domestic players are already racing to close the gap. Turn on your notifications for updates on that.

🇺🇸 ELON MUSK ON THE AI ENGAME. ''For the next few years, America is likely to win the AI race.'' Then it becomes a question of who controls the AI chip fabrication. If more of the factories are owned by China, China will win. Right now almost all the advanced factories are in Taiwan. ''If China invades Taiwan in the near term, the world will be cut off from advanced AI chips.'' "It's essential for national security that we begin manufacturing our own chips in the US." My take: China might not even need to invade. Huawei and other domestic players are already racing to close the gap. Turn on your notifications for updates on that.

CryptoGoos

14,652 views • 4 months ago

🇨🇳🇺🇸 TREASURY SECRETARY BESSENT: “THIS IS CHINA VERSUS THE WORLD - NOT JUST A U.S.-CHINA PROBLEM” “We have things that are more powerful than the rarer export controls that the Chinese want to put on. And to be clear, this is China versus the world. It's not a U.S.-China problem. Good news is that this is IMF week. A lot of my counterparts, or all my counterparts, are here. We're going to be speaking with our European allies, with Australia, with Canada, with India, and the Asian democracies. And we're going to have a fulsome group response to this because bureaucrats in China cannot manage the supply chain or the manufacturing process for the rest of the world. We don't want to damage their economy. We don't believe that they want to damage ours." Source: Rapid Response 47

🇨🇳🇺🇸 TREASURY SECRETARY BESSENT: “THIS IS CHINA VERSUS THE WORLD - NOT JUST A U.S.-CHINA PROBLEM” “We have things that are more powerful than the rarer export controls that the Chinese want to put on. And to be clear, this is China versus the world. It's not a U.S.-China problem. Good news is that this is IMF week. A lot of my counterparts, or all my counterparts, are here. We're going to be speaking with our European allies, with Australia, with Canada, with India, and the Asian democracies. And we're going to have a fulsome group response to this because bureaucrats in China cannot manage the supply chain or the manufacturing process for the rest of the world. We don't want to damage their economy. We don't believe that they want to damage ours." Source: Rapid Response 47

Mario Nawfal

319,810 views • 1 year ago

WARREN: Trump purchased up to $1m of Nvidia stock. A week later, he changed US policy and loosened the rules on export controls so Nvidia could sell its chips to China. Now the stock is through the roof. Should the SEC be knocking on his door? BESSENT: Get your house in order, senator. Lead by example

WARREN: Trump purchased up to $1m of Nvidia stock. A week later, he changed US policy and loosened the rules on export controls so Nvidia could sell its chips to China. Now the stock is through the roof. Should the SEC be knocking on his door? BESSENT: Get your house in order, senator. Lead by example

Aaron Rupar

180,852 views • 4 months ago

🇨🇳 CHINA IS BUILDING AN AI ARMY IN THE DESERT WITH BANNED U.S. TECH China is planting 40 massive data centers in the Xinjiang desert, each packed with banned Nvidia chips. The aim isn’t subtle. They’re building a domestic AI force to match or surpass anything in the West. This isn’t theory, it’s hardware in motion, with government backing and national ambition baked in. Power, chips, and infrastructure are all being scaled at breakneck speed. While the U.S. cut off the supply, China’s response is to clone the machine and grow it bigger. The desert is now a launchpad. Source: *Walter Bloomberg

🇨🇳 CHINA IS BUILDING AN AI ARMY IN THE DESERT WITH BANNED U.S. TECH China is planting 40 massive data centers in the Xinjiang desert, each packed with banned Nvidia chips. The aim isn’t subtle. They’re building a domestic AI force to match or surpass anything in the West. This isn’t theory, it’s hardware in motion, with government backing and national ambition baked in. Power, chips, and infrastructure are all being scaled at breakneck speed. While the U.S. cut off the supply, China’s response is to clone the machine and grow it bigger. The desert is now a launchpad. Source: *Walter Bloomberg

Mario Nawfal

108,854 views • 1 year ago

China is planning to spend around 2 trillion yuan ($295 billion) over the next five years to build data centers across the country At least 80% of all AI chips must come from domestic suppliers, primarily Huawei. Nvidia and AMD are locked out by design. Nvidia once held a 95% market share in China's AI market. Now? Zero. America did not lose China’s AI chip market because China “closed its doors,” but because America chose to weaponize chips, sanctions, export controls, entity lists, national security hysteria, and technological apartheid against its own largest customer. Washington took the world’s largest chip consumption market — a market that could have funded American semiconductor dominance for another generation — and taught it the most important lesson: Never let your future depend on a supplier that can be turned off by one paranoid empire. So China did what any serious civilization-state would do. It localized. It substituted. It built its own stack. It turned a customer relationship into a sovereignty project. And the same people who tried to choke Huawei are watching Huawei become the backbone of China’s AI infrastructure. This is a textbook own goal. America thought it was denying China the future. In reality, it compelled China to architect the future beyond America.

China is planning to spend around 2 trillion yuan ($295 billion) over the next five years to build data centers across the country At least 80% of all AI chips must come from domestic suppliers, primarily Huawei. Nvidia and AMD are locked out by design. Nvidia once held a 95% market share in China's AI market. Now? Zero. America did not lose China’s AI chip market because China “closed its doors,” but because America chose to weaponize chips, sanctions, export controls, entity lists, national security hysteria, and technological apartheid against its own largest customer. Washington took the world’s largest chip consumption market — a market that could have funded American semiconductor dominance for another generation — and taught it the most important lesson: Never let your future depend on a supplier that can be turned off by one paranoid empire. So China did what any serious civilization-state would do. It localized. It substituted. It built its own stack. It turned a customer relationship into a sovereignty project. And the same people who tried to choke Huawei are watching Huawei become the backbone of China’s AI infrastructure. This is a textbook own goal. America thought it was denying China the future. In reality, it compelled China to architect the future beyond America.

𝘊𝘰𝘳𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘦

36,916 views • 4 months ago

David Sacks breaks down the true risk of AI David Sacks "It’s not that I think the AI is going to develop a mind of its own. I don’t think the technology is anywhere close to that. But I do think that it could be used by the government in a much more invasive and intrusive way, in the manner that the government was, the Deep State was already trying to get in bed with the social networks. There is a real risk that AI is used by future governments or the Deep State basically to surveil us, to censor us, and even potentially to brainwash us, because it is really good for that."

David Sacks breaks down the true risk of AI David Sacks "It’s not that I think the AI is going to develop a mind of its own. I don’t think the technology is anywhere close to that. But I do think that it could be used by the government in a much more invasive and intrusive way, in the manner that the government was, the Deep State was already trying to get in bed with the social networks. There is a real risk that AI is used by future governments or the Deep State basically to surveil us, to censor us, and even potentially to brainwash us, because it is really good for that."

jay plemons

102,370 views • 10 months ago

China produces 20x+ as much solar as the U.S. (over 1 TW vs. just 50 GW). If solar is the only scalable way to meet the 100s of GWs of extra demand we'll have because of AI, what exactly is the story of how America wins AI? Is China privileged in the long timelines world? SMIC will probably *eventually* catch up to TSMC - export controls won't preserve the lead forever. Forget training - even just to deploy AIs through the economy, we'll need tons of tons of new data centers. In the long run, what matters is putting up more energy. And doing that requires massive industrial scale ups across the entire supply chain. This is what China excels at (and not so much the US). China adds the equivalent of the entire US electricity grid every 4 years. If AI deployment is just gonna be a matter churning out solar panels, batteries, transformers, switches, substations, etc etc, why doesn't China just dominate by default? I asked Casey Handmer. Full episode out.

China produces 20x+ as much solar as the U.S. (over 1 TW vs. just 50 GW). If solar is the only scalable way to meet the 100s of GWs of extra demand we'll have because of AI, what exactly is the story of how America wins AI? Is China privileged in the long timelines world? SMIC will probably eventually catch up to TSMC - export controls won't preserve the lead forever. Forget training - even just to deploy AIs through the economy, we'll need tons of tons of new data centers. In the long run, what matters is putting up more energy. And doing that requires massive industrial scale ups across the entire supply chain. This is what China excels at (and not so much the US). China adds the equivalent of the entire US electricity grid every 4 years. If AI deployment is just gonna be a matter churning out solar panels, batteries, transformers, switches, substations, etc etc, why doesn't China just dominate by default? I asked Casey Handmer. Full episode out.

Dwarkesh Patel

309,939 views • 1 year ago