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🇺🇸FED funds rate, yield curve & stocks historical correlation: when yield curve un-inverting, FED cut rates & stock markets sell-off. Will it repeat in Q1? James Lavish The Wolf Of All Streets Mike McGlone $SPY $QQQ $NVDA $AAPL $AMZN $TSLA $META $GOOG $MSFT $MSTR $BTC

Marco ₿attistoni

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Out now- how Alf is seeing things in macro: - bullish stocks and bonds because the Fed put is back - yield curve to bull steepen as Fed cuts interest rates as inflation moderates - the abundance of long-term fixed-rate debt in the U.S. has shielded the American private sector from the ravages of higher rates - however, to say that high rates are actually stimulative is going too far. borrowers will have to refinance eventually - much of European economy has already felt the contractionary effects of higher rates. That is why the Swedish central bank has already begun to cut interest rates. expect more of this This interview is brought to you by VanEck, a global leader in asset management since 1955. I'm very proud to say that VanEck is Forward Guidance's exclusive sponsor - check them out! Recorded on May 8 Enjoy 🔥

Out now- how Alf is seeing things in macro: - bullish stocks and bonds because the Fed put is back - yield curve to bull steepen as Fed cuts interest rates as inflation moderates - the abundance of long-term fixed-rate debt in the U.S. has shielded the American private sector from the ravages of higher rates - however, to say that high rates are actually stimulative is going too far. borrowers will have to refinance eventually - much of European economy has already felt the contractionary effects of higher rates. That is why the Swedish central bank has already begun to cut interest rates. expect more of this This interview is brought to you by VanEck, a global leader in asset management since 1955. I'm very proud to say that VanEck is Forward Guidance's exclusive sponsor - check them out! Recorded on May 8 Enjoy 🔥

Jack Farley

36,817 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren

$NXXT exploded +134% in just 55 minutes while volume surged past 51.58 million shares traded versus a 65-day average of only 3.14 million. The move was not random. Q1 2026 revenue climbed to $21.1 million from $16.3 million, up 29% year over year, while gross profit jumped to $1.71 million from $518 thousand. Gross margins also expanded sharply from 3.2% to 8.1%, showing the company kept significantly more money from every dollar of sales. The chart showed a vertical breakout followed by consolidation instead of an immediate collapse, which traders watch closely in momentum names. This is why small-cap stocks with rising revenue, improving margins, and extreme relative volume can reprice incredibly fast in a single session. Now traders are watching the next market open closely to see whether momentum and volume continue or fade after one of the wildest moves of the day. $NXXT $NVDA $MSFT $AMD $SMCI $PLTR $TSLA $META $AMZN $GOOGL $AAPL $FCX $HBM $SCCO $TECK $RIO $BHP $NRED $SMR $OKLO $CCJ $LEU $MSTR $COIN $BTC $ETH $SPY $QQQ $DIA $IWM $SOUN $BBAI $IONQ $RKLB $ASTS $HOOD

$NXXT exploded +134% in just 55 minutes while volume surged past 51.58 million shares traded versus a 65-day average of only 3.14 million. The move was not random. Q1 2026 revenue climbed to $21.1 million from $16.3 million, up 29% year over year, while gross profit jumped to $1.71 million from $518 thousand. Gross margins also expanded sharply from 3.2% to 8.1%, showing the company kept significantly more money from every dollar of sales. The chart showed a vertical breakout followed by consolidation instead of an immediate collapse, which traders watch closely in momentum names. This is why small-cap stocks with rising revenue, improving margins, and extreme relative volume can reprice incredibly fast in a single session. Now traders are watching the next market open closely to see whether momentum and volume continue or fade after one of the wildest moves of the day. $NXXT $NVDA $MSFT $AMD $SMCI $PLTR $TSLA $META $AMZN $GOOGL $AAPL $FCX $HBM $SCCO $TECK $RIO $BHP $NRED $SMR $OKLO $CCJ $LEU $MSTR $COIN $BTC $ETH $SPY $QQQ $DIA $IWM $SOUN $BBAI $IONQ $RKLB $ASTS $HOOD

Victor Renard

3,380,509 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

🚨 THIS COULD BE THE WORST MONDAY OF 2026 FOR THE STOCK MARKET Markets are facing pressure from every direction. → The US–Iran peace deal is showing signs of falling apart. → Traders are now pricing in the possibility of Fed rate hikes in 2026. → Investors are rotating out of high-risk growth stocks as risk sentiment weakens. → AI stocks remain heavily overvalued as concerns over an AI bubble continue to grow. The Nasdaq, S&P 500, and NVIDIA could all open with red candles. If you hold any positions, read this carefully. When markets open this week, this won't be just another dip. Stocks will dump. Bonds will dump. Gold and Silver will dump. Bitcoin will collapse. Keep in mind: I called BTC at $16K and the top at $126K When I exit, you'll see it here first. Turn notifications on.

🚨 THIS COULD BE THE WORST MONDAY OF 2026 FOR THE STOCK MARKET Markets are facing pressure from every direction. → The US–Iran peace deal is showing signs of falling apart. → Traders are now pricing in the possibility of Fed rate hikes in 2026. → Investors are rotating out of high-risk growth stocks as risk sentiment weakens. → AI stocks remain heavily overvalued as concerns over an AI bubble continue to grow. The Nasdaq, S&P 500, and NVIDIA could all open with red candles. If you hold any positions, read this carefully. When markets open this week, this won't be just another dip. Stocks will dump. Bonds will dump. Gold and Silver will dump. Bitcoin will collapse. Keep in mind: I called BTC at $16K and the top at $126K When I exit, you'll see it here first. Turn notifications on.

winkle.

24,167 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

the long bond is breaking ranks and equity bulls are entirely ignoring the mechanic. everybody is begging the Fed for cuts to save their bags. they dont realize the bond vigilantes just took the wheel on the back end of the curve. straight out of 1994. back then the market mutinied and ripped the 30-year Treasury yield from 5.8% to over 8% in under a year. the Fed completely lost control. leveraged funds got vaporized. we are watching the exact same duration mutiny form right now. megacap tech is masking the rot while small caps are already choking on the cost of capital. retail is sitting long on automakers and new construction trusts assuming short rate cuts will act as an instant bailout. lower short rates do absolutely nothing for you if the long end refuses to catch a bid. the trigger hits 12 to 18 months from now. political panic over frozen auto and home sales will force Congress to demand aggressive cuts. when the Fed slashes but the long bond throws a tantrum and yields spike anyway, the private credit market freezes solid.

the long bond is breaking ranks and equity bulls are entirely ignoring the mechanic. everybody is begging the Fed for cuts to save their bags. they dont realize the bond vigilantes just took the wheel on the back end of the curve. straight out of 1994. back then the market mutinied and ripped the 30-year Treasury yield from 5.8% to over 8% in under a year. the Fed completely lost control. leveraged funds got vaporized. we are watching the exact same duration mutiny form right now. megacap tech is masking the rot while small caps are already choking on the cost of capital. retail is sitting long on automakers and new construction trusts assuming short rate cuts will act as an instant bailout. lower short rates do absolutely nothing for you if the long end refuses to catch a bid. the trigger hits 12 to 18 months from now. political panic over frozen auto and home sales will force Congress to demand aggressive cuts. when the Fed slashes but the long bond throws a tantrum and yields spike anyway, the private credit market freezes solid.

Macro Alpha

14,076 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🚨SoSoValue Flash: Great Power Diplomacy & Liquidity Squeeze, Markets Brace for NVDA Earnings 💥 Core Catalyst: Truce Extensions & Tehran ShadowsTrump has warned of fresh strikes within 2–3 days if no deal is reached (potentially Friday–Sunday or early next week), though the market continues to price in "TACO" (Talk-and-Carry-On) as the base case. On Monday night, Vladimir Putin landed in Beijing ahead of his summit with Xi, signaling deepening China-Russia coordination. 🔍 Key Logic Shifts: 1️⃣ Macro & Yields: The 10Y U.S. Treasury yield briefly neared 4.7% as major sell-side desks lifted targets above 4.6%, triggering a wave of stop-loss selling. G7 finance ministers, including Bessent, provided no rate-soothing signals, deflating expectations for a "policy backstop" and further pressuring liquidity. 2️⃣ AI Portfolio: The "is AI topping?" debate continues to build, but strong industry trends and earnings fundamentals argue against a structural reversal—a pullback remains the more likely scenario. 3️⃣ Event Pivot: NVIDIA’s (NVDA) earnings on Wednesday after the bell stand as this week's primary pivot. With expectations at a fever pitch, the results are set to be the dominant source of market volatility. 📊 Trade Setup (SoDEX Assets to Watch): Core: $USTECH-100 | $CL (Crude) | $XAUT | $BTC MAG7: $NVDA | $AMZN | $GOOGL | $META | $MSFT | $TSLA | $AAPL AI Hardware: $SNDK | $MU | $AMD | $INTC

🚨SoSoValue Flash: Great Power Diplomacy & Liquidity Squeeze, Markets Brace for NVDA Earnings 💥 Core Catalyst: Truce Extensions & Tehran ShadowsTrump has warned of fresh strikes within 2–3 days if no deal is reached (potentially Friday–Sunday or early next week), though the market continues to price in "TACO" (Talk-and-Carry-On) as the base case. On Monday night, Vladimir Putin landed in Beijing ahead of his summit with Xi, signaling deepening China-Russia coordination. 🔍 Key Logic Shifts: 1️⃣ Macro & Yields: The 10Y U.S. Treasury yield briefly neared 4.7% as major sell-side desks lifted targets above 4.6%, triggering a wave of stop-loss selling. G7 finance ministers, including Bessent, provided no rate-soothing signals, deflating expectations for a "policy backstop" and further pressuring liquidity. 2️⃣ AI Portfolio: The "is AI topping?" debate continues to build, but strong industry trends and earnings fundamentals argue against a structural reversal—a pullback remains the more likely scenario. 3️⃣ Event Pivot: NVIDIA’s (NVDA) earnings on Wednesday after the bell stand as this week's primary pivot. With expectations at a fever pitch, the results are set to be the dominant source of market volatility. 📊 Trade Setup (SoDEX Assets to Watch): Core: $USTECH-100 | $CL (Crude) | $XAUT | $BTC MAG7: $NVDA | $AMZN | $GOOGL | $META | $MSFT | $TSLA | $AAPL AI Hardware: $SNDK | $MU | $AMD | $INTC

SoSoValue

52,496 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

🚨Chamath on why the Fed could keep holding off rate cuts: "The only answer is political." The FOMC's June rate cut decision is happening this week. It is expected they will keep rates unchanged. The chances of a Summer rate cut are extremely small. According to Polymarket: -- June: ~98% chance of "No change" -- July: ~87% chance of "No change" Chamath's take: "Let's just scenario play. What happens if Powell rips in a 100 basis point cut right now?" "I'll tell you. So one part, which is mathematical, is the interest on the debt goes down. We save $300B." "But there's something else that happens, which is the Fed does control the front end of the curve." "Meaning how do people borrow money for small amounts of time from one day to about two years." "If you make that cheaper, it's a test as true as time, what happens is people borrow more money." "That fuels more growth. That will end up in GDP." "So what actually happens if you cut rates 100 basis points is not just the $300B, but you can get this reflexive positivity in the economy." "What that allows you to do is, even if that causes a little bit more inflation, you're actually growing yourself out of this whole thing." "If the numerical justification is there to lower rates and it has all of these other positive externalities for the United States economy, why don't (you) do it?" "The only answer is political."

🚨Chamath on why the Fed could keep holding off rate cuts: "The only answer is political." The FOMC's June rate cut decision is happening this week. It is expected they will keep rates unchanged. The chances of a Summer rate cut are extremely small. According to Polymarket: -- June: ~98% chance of "No change" -- July: ~87% chance of "No change" Chamath's take: "Let's just scenario play. What happens if Powell rips in a 100 basis point cut right now?" "I'll tell you. So one part, which is mathematical, is the interest on the debt goes down. We save $300B." "But there's something else that happens, which is the Fed does control the front end of the curve." "Meaning how do people borrow money for small amounts of time from one day to about two years." "If you make that cheaper, it's a test as true as time, what happens is people borrow more money." "That fuels more growth. That will end up in GDP." "So what actually happens if you cut rates 100 basis points is not just the $300B, but you can get this reflexive positivity in the economy." "What that allows you to do is, even if that causes a little bit more inflation, you're actually growing yourself out of this whole thing." "If the numerical justification is there to lower rates and it has all of these other positive externalities for the United States economy, why don't (you) do it?" "The only answer is political."

The All-In Podcast

632,242 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

THE FED IS OUT OF EXITS The 10-Year Treasury yield just broke above 4.40% First time since June 2025. Remember the last time we crossed that line? April 2025. Trump's "90-day tariff pause." The emergency button got slammed for a reason. That same line is back. Right on schedule. And here's what nobody on cable news is telling you: Rate HIKES are now what the Fed is expected to do next. Not cuts. Hikes. In plain English: the Fed is about to make borrowing more expensive, not cheaper. What that means for you: ➮ 30-year mortgage rates are heading back to 7% ➮ Inflation just hit a 3-year high ➮ "Higher for longer" - the policy everyone thought was dead is officially back Seemingly overnight. Now here's the math nobody on TV wants to do out loud: The US government has to refinance trillions in debt this year at these higher rates. Every tick higher in rates costs the Treasury billions more in interest. Which puts the Fed in a corner with two exits. If they HIKE to crush inflation - the stock market, housing, and credit markets crack at the same time. If they HOLD or CUT to save the markets - inflation spirals again and the dollar bleeds out. There is no third door. This isn't a policy decision anymore. It's a math problem with no solution. The clock is ticking. Most people will keep believing "the Fed has it under control" until their mortgage payment, their grocery bill, and their portfolio tell them otherwise. Don't worry though - my system flags the exact moment the market shifts from caution to DANGER. I called every major top and bottom of the last decade. You'll be warned before it hits, like always. So make sure to TURN ON NOTIFS and follow

THE FED IS OUT OF EXITS The 10-Year Treasury yield just broke above 4.40% First time since June 2025. Remember the last time we crossed that line? April 2025. Trump's "90-day tariff pause." The emergency button got slammed for a reason. That same line is back. Right on schedule. And here's what nobody on cable news is telling you: Rate HIKES are now what the Fed is expected to do next. Not cuts. Hikes. In plain English: the Fed is about to make borrowing more expensive, not cheaper. What that means for you: ➮ 30-year mortgage rates are heading back to 7% ➮ Inflation just hit a 3-year high ➮ "Higher for longer" - the policy everyone thought was dead is officially back Seemingly overnight. Now here's the math nobody on TV wants to do out loud: The US government has to refinance trillions in debt this year at these higher rates. Every tick higher in rates costs the Treasury billions more in interest. Which puts the Fed in a corner with two exits. If they HIKE to crush inflation - the stock market, housing, and credit markets crack at the same time. If they HOLD or CUT to save the markets - inflation spirals again and the dollar bleeds out. There is no third door. This isn't a policy decision anymore. It's a math problem with no solution. The clock is ticking. Most people will keep believing "the Fed has it under control" until their mortgage payment, their grocery bill, and their portfolio tell them otherwise. Don't worry though - my system flags the exact moment the market shifts from caution to DANGER. I called every major top and bottom of the last decade. You'll be warned before it hits, like always. So make sure to TURN ON NOTIFS and follow

Reflection🪩

132,195 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

On July 29, the Fed could cut every retail portfolio in America. Rate hike odds just tripled in 7 days. Trillions in housing, small caps, and tech are one Warsh sentence away from collapse. Here's what Wall Street already knows and retail doesn't: Seven days ago, the market was pricing in a rate cut this summer. Retail investors piled into every trade that benefits from lower rates. Housing stocks, small caps, unprofitable tech, and long-term bonds all ran on one assumption. That assumption was simple: rates were coming down. Then everything changed this week: > Oil surged near $100 after Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers this week. > WTI closed Friday above $90. Brent stayed above $95 through the weekend. > Gas prices are already climbing back toward $4 a gallon. > New global tariffs kicked in the same week. Inflation expectations jumped overnight. > The 10-year Treasury yield ripped to 4.71%. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is publicly split with his own board. By Friday, the rate hike odds for the July 29 meeting had tripled. In just one week, the entire outlook flipped. A Wells Fargo strategist said rising oil weakens consumers and complicates the inflation fight. His conclusion: the Fed may need to hike more and faster than anyone expected. This is the trap retail investors keep walking into. The consensus trade always feels safe until the day it isn't. Buy the dip, ride the cut, and wait for the pivot - that works until oil spikes, inflation runs hot, and the Fed changes direction. Here's the worst part. Consumer spending is already fragile. Real wages have been negative for months. The average household is paying thousands more on essentials than two years ago. Now add a rate hike into that picture: > Small caps get repriced overnight. > Housing stocks lose their entire 2026 rally in a week. > Every unprofitable tech name that ran on cheap money gets crushed. Retail investors holding those positions find out only after the announcement. Wednesday is the Fed decision. Thursday brings Q2 GDP and PCE inflation data. Those are two of the year's most important reports, arriving back to back. This is exactly the setup where emotional investors get flattened. They panic sell on the headline, then chase the bounce out of FOMO. That cycle repeats on every intraday swing until the account is bleeding. The investors who come out ahead don't watch the Fed feed refresh. They already have a strategy running before the announcement hits. It runs on automated, rules-based logic, with no emotion and no guesswork. That's exactly what Surmount was built for:

On July 29, the Fed could cut every retail portfolio in America. Rate hike odds just tripled in 7 days. Trillions in housing, small caps, and tech are one Warsh sentence away from collapse. Here's what Wall Street already knows and retail doesn't: Seven days ago, the market was pricing in a rate cut this summer. Retail investors piled into every trade that benefits from lower rates. Housing stocks, small caps, unprofitable tech, and long-term bonds all ran on one assumption. That assumption was simple: rates were coming down. Then everything changed this week: > Oil surged near $100 after Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers this week. > WTI closed Friday above $90. Brent stayed above $95 through the weekend. > Gas prices are already climbing back toward $4 a gallon. > New global tariffs kicked in the same week. Inflation expectations jumped overnight. > The 10-year Treasury yield ripped to 4.71%. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is publicly split with his own board. By Friday, the rate hike odds for the July 29 meeting had tripled. In just one week, the entire outlook flipped. A Wells Fargo strategist said rising oil weakens consumers and complicates the inflation fight. His conclusion: the Fed may need to hike more and faster than anyone expected. This is the trap retail investors keep walking into. The consensus trade always feels safe until the day it isn't. Buy the dip, ride the cut, and wait for the pivot - that works until oil spikes, inflation runs hot, and the Fed changes direction. Here's the worst part. Consumer spending is already fragile. Real wages have been negative for months. The average household is paying thousands more on essentials than two years ago. Now add a rate hike into that picture: > Small caps get repriced overnight. > Housing stocks lose their entire 2026 rally in a week. > Every unprofitable tech name that ran on cheap money gets crushed. Retail investors holding those positions find out only after the announcement. Wednesday is the Fed decision. Thursday brings Q2 GDP and PCE inflation data. Those are two of the year's most important reports, arriving back to back. This is exactly the setup where emotional investors get flattened. They panic sell on the headline, then chase the bounce out of FOMO. That cycle repeats on every intraday swing until the account is bleeding. The investors who come out ahead don't watch the Fed feed refresh. They already have a strategy running before the announcement hits. It runs on automated, rules-based logic, with no emotion and no guesswork. That's exactly what Surmount was built for:

Surmount

10,856 Aufrufe • vor 19 Tagen

🚨 THIS IS NOT NORMAL SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are preparing to go public. All at once. To absorb these giants, the market will need to find $200 BILLION in fresh liquidity. This is a brutal stress test for global investors. To buy into these IPOs, big funds need a lot of cash. They will ruthlessly cut overextended tech. First in line: NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Google. But these companies hold up the entire S&P 500. If they start to fall, the index will follow. We saw this before during the COVID bubble. Dozens of tech companies (Rivian, Coinbase, Robinhood) hit the market at crazy high prices. When the Fed hiked rates and liquidity dried up, these stocks crashed 80%. The AI and tech sectors are already running on fumes. Add a $200B drain, and you get a systemic flush. Get positioned before this massive rotation begins. As a reminder, I’ve called every major market turn for the last 10 years, including the $111K BTC peak in October. Turn on notifications. I will guide you through this liquidity squeeze, and when the real bottom finally forms, I’ll call it here publicly.

🚨 THIS IS NOT NORMAL SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are preparing to go public. All at once. To absorb these giants, the market will need to find $200 BILLION in fresh liquidity. This is a brutal stress test for global investors. To buy into these IPOs, big funds need a lot of cash. They will ruthlessly cut overextended tech. First in line: NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Google. But these companies hold up the entire S&P 500. If they start to fall, the index will follow. We saw this before during the COVID bubble. Dozens of tech companies (Rivian, Coinbase, Robinhood) hit the market at crazy high prices. When the Fed hiked rates and liquidity dried up, these stocks crashed 80%. The AI and tech sectors are already running on fumes. Add a $200B drain, and you get a systemic flush. Get positioned before this massive rotation begins. As a reminder, I’ve called every major market turn for the last 10 years, including the $111K BTC peak in October. Turn on notifications. I will guide you through this liquidity squeeze, and when the real bottom finally forms, I’ll call it here publicly.

MARMOT

1,435,253 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

🚨 WARNING: SOMETHING TERRIBLE WILL HAPPEN ON MONDAY!! → Fed rate cuts are CANCELLED. → U.S.-Iran peace deal has officially COLLAPSED. → China and Japan are SELLING U.S. Treasuries. → Stock markets are DUMPING amid AI bubble fears. If you're holding any assets now, you MUST know this: When markets open next week, this won't be "just another dip." Stocks will dump again. Metals will crash hard. Bitcoin and crypto will collapse. Large institutions and major funds are already dumping ALL risk assets. They're not seeking upside. They're minimizing risk and preparing for a market crash. At the same time, pressure is intensifying across the global financial system. The Federal Reserve has made it clear that interest rates will remain higher for longer. Japan has officially intervened in the market with yen support. Meanwhile, China and Japan continue to sell their U.S. Treasury holdings, adding even more strain to the world's largest bond market. When the largest foreign holders of U.S. debt retreat, liquidity starts to evaporate. → Interest rates will stay elevated. → Japan is actively propping up the yen. → China and Japan continue reducing U.S. Treasury holdings. → The U.S.-Iran ceasefire is officially off the table. → Liquidity conditions are constricting across financial markets. → Bond market volatility keeps escalating. → Funds are slashing equity exposure. → The AI-driven rally is rapidly losing steam. → Risk appetite is dwindling across multiple asset classes. This is no longer just a single-market issue. Multiple sources of stress are unfolding simultaneously. That's how financial chain reactions begin. As liquidity tightens and capital flows reverse, fear spreads rapidly across every major asset class. This is no longer just about market positioning. It's about systemic pressure building beneath the surface. I have spent decades studying macro cycles, liquidity flows, and systemic market reactions like these. That's how I knew Bitcoin would peak in October 2025 and called the $126K top. I'll share my next call here first. Follow and turn on notifications.

🚨 WARNING: SOMETHING TERRIBLE WILL HAPPEN ON MONDAY!! → Fed rate cuts are CANCELLED. → U.S.-Iran peace deal has officially COLLAPSED. → China and Japan are SELLING U.S. Treasuries. → Stock markets are DUMPING amid AI bubble fears. If you're holding any assets now, you MUST know this: When markets open next week, this won't be "just another dip." Stocks will dump again. Metals will crash hard. Bitcoin and crypto will collapse. Large institutions and major funds are already dumping ALL risk assets. They're not seeking upside. They're minimizing risk and preparing for a market crash. At the same time, pressure is intensifying across the global financial system. The Federal Reserve has made it clear that interest rates will remain higher for longer. Japan has officially intervened in the market with yen support. Meanwhile, China and Japan continue to sell their U.S. Treasury holdings, adding even more strain to the world's largest bond market. When the largest foreign holders of U.S. debt retreat, liquidity starts to evaporate. → Interest rates will stay elevated. → Japan is actively propping up the yen. → China and Japan continue reducing U.S. Treasury holdings. → The U.S.-Iran ceasefire is officially off the table. → Liquidity conditions are constricting across financial markets. → Bond market volatility keeps escalating. → Funds are slashing equity exposure. → The AI-driven rally is rapidly losing steam. → Risk appetite is dwindling across multiple asset classes. This is no longer just a single-market issue. Multiple sources of stress are unfolding simultaneously. That's how financial chain reactions begin. As liquidity tightens and capital flows reverse, fear spreads rapidly across every major asset class. This is no longer just about market positioning. It's about systemic pressure building beneath the surface. I have spent decades studying macro cycles, liquidity flows, and systemic market reactions like these. That's how I knew Bitcoin would peak in October 2025 and called the $126K top. I'll share my next call here first. Follow and turn on notifications.

0xNobler

149,216 Aufrufe • vor 26 Tagen

3/18/2026 Daily Recap: Time to rip the band aid off? - PPI came in above expectations .7% v .3% and that sent the market tumbling before the opening bell. - Jerome Powell than spoke in the afternoon and the market proceeds to roll over some more into the close. - $QQQ -1.4% aided by $AAPL $MSFT $TSLA $NVDA $AMZN all closing lower. - $ARKK looks like a bear flag about ready to breakdown. Cathy's holdings are just acting like absolute garbage. - $USO $XLE $XOP continue its tear higher. $COP $FANG $DVN $OXY $VLO $MPC $APA all higher - $MU reported incredible earnings after the close today and down a modest 1%. Not a group we want to lose here or we start running out of bull cases on this market. $SNDK $WDC - $RKLB $ASTS $KTOS all rejected their 50sma today just after it looked like a renewed trend was possible - $BTC $ETH lead the markets on the down move today but is this just some digestion before trying to resume higher? - $XLV already losing ground quickly on the back $LLY - $XLP a defensive sector also taken down quickly. - $XLF also no real signs of life which is hard to imagine we kick into a real bullish trend without financials. - $MAGS look like they need life support soon starting to establish themselves below the 200sma. - Traction remains hard to come by and for me it's been a better environment shorting into supply

3/18/2026 Daily Recap: Time to rip the band aid off? - PPI came in above expectations .7% v .3% and that sent the market tumbling before the opening bell. - Jerome Powell than spoke in the afternoon and the market proceeds to roll over some more into the close. - $QQQ -1.4% aided by $AAPL $MSFT $TSLA $NVDA $AMZN all closing lower. - $ARKK looks like a bear flag about ready to breakdown. Cathy's holdings are just acting like absolute garbage. - $USO $XLE $XOP continue its tear higher. $COP $FANG $DVN $OXY $VLO $MPC $APA all higher - $MU reported incredible earnings after the close today and down a modest 1%. Not a group we want to lose here or we start running out of bull cases on this market. $SNDK $WDC - $RKLB $ASTS $KTOS all rejected their 50sma today just after it looked like a renewed trend was possible - $BTC $ETH lead the markets on the down move today but is this just some digestion before trying to resume higher? - $XLV already losing ground quickly on the back $LLY - $XLP a defensive sector also taken down quickly. - $XLF also no real signs of life which is hard to imagine we kick into a real bullish trend without financials. - $MAGS look like they need life support soon starting to establish themselves below the 200sma. - Traction remains hard to come by and for me it's been a better environment shorting into supply

Ariel Hernandez

13,345 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

$NRED is up 3,300% in one year. The math is VERY STRONG - $25,000 position last year would be worth roughly $850,000 today. In just 6 months, the stock is up 451%. So the question is not only what already moved. The question is what the market is seeing now. Copper just hit all-time highs above $6.50/lb, up roughly 40% in 12 months. Analysts are warning about potential copper deficits in 2026 as AI infrastructure, data centers, EVs, robotics, military systems, and power-grid expansion continue accelerating. This is not only a mining story. It is a copper story. An AI infrastructure story. A power-grid story. NovaRed Mining ($NRED / $NREDF) is focused on copper-gold porphyry projects in British Columbia. Its Wilmac Copper-Gold Project spans approximately 39,000 acres near the producing Copper Mountain Mine. (Near 3 times the size of Manhattan, NY) Then comes MetalCore — NovaRed’s AI-driven mineral exploration platform designed to help evaluate mineral opportunities faster using available geological and satellite data. Most people see land. But what matters is what the data can reveal. Now NovaRed is adding strategic advisor Jake Amsterdam of Amsterdam & Partners LLP to support ESG positioning, governance, stakeholder engagement, and critical-minerals strategy. Because this story is not only geology. It is land. Data. Capital. Policy. Reputation. And timing. Copper is moving now. AI infrastructure is expanding now. Supply chains are tightening now. Major market symbols currently trending across AI, mining, energy, semiconductors, crypto, and momentum trading include: $NVDA $MSFT $AMD $SMCI $PLTR $TSLA $META $AMZN $GOOGL $AAPL $FCX $HBM $SCCO $TECK $RIO $BHP $NRED $SMR $OKLO $CCJ $LEU $MSTR $COIN $BTC $ETH $SPY $QQQ $DIA $IWM $SOUN $BBAI $IONQ $RKLB $ASTS $HOOD Some market commentary points to upside targets near $5 for NRED, but nothing is guaranteed. Do your own research. This is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities.

$NRED is up 3,300% in one year. The math is VERY STRONG - $25,000 position last year would be worth roughly $850,000 today. In just 6 months, the stock is up 451%. So the question is not only what already moved. The question is what the market is seeing now. Copper just hit all-time highs above $6.50/lb, up roughly 40% in 12 months. Analysts are warning about potential copper deficits in 2026 as AI infrastructure, data centers, EVs, robotics, military systems, and power-grid expansion continue accelerating. This is not only a mining story. It is a copper story. An AI infrastructure story. A power-grid story. NovaRed Mining ($NRED / $NREDF) is focused on copper-gold porphyry projects in British Columbia. Its Wilmac Copper-Gold Project spans approximately 39,000 acres near the producing Copper Mountain Mine. (Near 3 times the size of Manhattan, NY) Then comes MetalCore — NovaRed’s AI-driven mineral exploration platform designed to help evaluate mineral opportunities faster using available geological and satellite data. Most people see land. But what matters is what the data can reveal. Now NovaRed is adding strategic advisor Jake Amsterdam of Amsterdam & Partners LLP to support ESG positioning, governance, stakeholder engagement, and critical-minerals strategy. Because this story is not only geology. It is land. Data. Capital. Policy. Reputation. And timing. Copper is moving now. AI infrastructure is expanding now. Supply chains are tightening now. Major market symbols currently trending across AI, mining, energy, semiconductors, crypto, and momentum trading include: $NVDA $MSFT $AMD $SMCI $PLTR $TSLA $META $AMZN $GOOGL $AAPL $FCX $HBM $SCCO $TECK $RIO $BHP $NRED $SMR $OKLO $CCJ $LEU $MSTR $COIN $BTC $ETH $SPY $QQQ $DIA $IWM $SOUN $BBAI $IONQ $RKLB $ASTS $HOOD Some market commentary points to upside targets near $5 for NRED, but nothing is guaranteed. Do your own research. This is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities.

Victor Renard

70,646,190 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

🚨 WARNING: MONDAY COULD BE THE WORST DAY OF 2026!! Urgently take a quick look before the weekend. Markets will be hit from ALL sides. → Fed just confirmed rate HIKES. → Iran violated the ceasefire, and the peace deal is CANCELLED. → Japan is DUMPING U.S. Treasuries. → The AI bubble is starting to COLLAPSE. If you hold any assets today, you MUST read this: When markets open next week, this won't be “just another dip.” Stocks will dump. Bonds will dump. Gold and Silver will dump. Bitcoin will collapse. And insiders already know what's coming. They are not buying assets right now. They are reducing exposure and preparing for the biggest sell-off event of the year. At the same time, pressure is intensifying throughout the global financial system. China is continuing to reduce Treasury exposure. Japan's bond market remains under severe pressure, forcing the BOJ into continued support operations. When the world's largest creditors step away from sovereign debt markets simultaneously, liquidity evaporates. → Global bond markets are under extreme stress → Japanese bond yields continue surging higher → Demand for U.S. Treasuries is deteriorating → Liquidity conditions are tightening across markets → Volatility is spreading through every major asset class → Energy markets remain highly unstable → The AI bubble is starting to deflate as equities already weaken → Asset managers are dumping stocks and reducing market exposure This is no longer a localized issue. This is systemic stress building across MULTIPLE sectors simultaneously. And now geopolitical risk has escalated even further. New strikes between the U.S. and Iran have erupted after the ceasefire was violated. That is how energy markets become impossible to control. Oil does not rise slowly. It goes parabolic. Inflation accelerates worldwide. Which means interest rates stay higher for longer. And risk assets? They do not dip. They DUMP HARD. This is exactly how financial chain reactions begin. Because once markets start pricing long-term instability instead of short-term uncertainty, everything changes. Liquidity is already being withdrawn across multiple layers of the financial system. This is no longer about positioning alone - it is about the systemic stress. When one node breaks, it does not stay contained. It collapses EVERYTHING. Keep in mind: I’ve called every major market top and bottom for over 10 YEARS. I was one of the only people who called the top in October, and I’ll do it again, that’s literally my job. If you still haven’t followed me, you’ll regret it.

🚨 WARNING: MONDAY COULD BE THE WORST DAY OF 2026!! Urgently take a quick look before the weekend. Markets will be hit from ALL sides. → Fed just confirmed rate HIKES. → Iran violated the ceasefire, and the peace deal is CANCELLED. → Japan is DUMPING U.S. Treasuries. → The AI bubble is starting to COLLAPSE. If you hold any assets today, you MUST read this: When markets open next week, this won't be “just another dip.” Stocks will dump. Bonds will dump. Gold and Silver will dump. Bitcoin will collapse. And insiders already know what's coming. They are not buying assets right now. They are reducing exposure and preparing for the biggest sell-off event of the year. At the same time, pressure is intensifying throughout the global financial system. China is continuing to reduce Treasury exposure. Japan's bond market remains under severe pressure, forcing the BOJ into continued support operations. When the world's largest creditors step away from sovereign debt markets simultaneously, liquidity evaporates. → Global bond markets are under extreme stress → Japanese bond yields continue surging higher → Demand for U.S. Treasuries is deteriorating → Liquidity conditions are tightening across markets → Volatility is spreading through every major asset class → Energy markets remain highly unstable → The AI bubble is starting to deflate as equities already weaken → Asset managers are dumping stocks and reducing market exposure This is no longer a localized issue. This is systemic stress building across MULTIPLE sectors simultaneously. And now geopolitical risk has escalated even further. New strikes between the U.S. and Iran have erupted after the ceasefire was violated. That is how energy markets become impossible to control. Oil does not rise slowly. It goes parabolic. Inflation accelerates worldwide. Which means interest rates stay higher for longer. And risk assets? They do not dip. They DUMP HARD. This is exactly how financial chain reactions begin. Because once markets start pricing long-term instability instead of short-term uncertainty, everything changes. Liquidity is already being withdrawn across multiple layers of the financial system. This is no longer about positioning alone - it is about the systemic stress. When one node breaks, it does not stay contained. It collapses EVERYTHING. Keep in mind: I’ve called every major market top and bottom for over 10 YEARS. I was one of the only people who called the top in October, and I’ll do it again, that’s literally my job. If you still haven’t followed me, you’ll regret it.

DANNY

94,133 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Barry Sternlicht recently went on an EPIC rant about the Fed, predicting when they'll lower rates and the challenges the US is facing "Inflation will fall below 2% as soon as the rent component catches up to the data. The question is, when will the Fed lower rates? But here's where it gets really tricky... The economy is too strong. It's too strong because of public spending. It's not too strong because of private spending. Private spending is rolling over.... Everyone's laying workers off. But the federal government's hiring them.... They're spending enough money to keep these guys employed. So the Fed keeps using this really blunt, horrible instrument 5.5% interest rates with two huge victims, because we have a $34 trillion deficit, and the debt is going to roll over. A third of our debt rolls over this year. He can pay 5.3% on it, or he can pay 3% if he lowers rates. That's $200 billion. That's a quarter of the defense budget, which is the largest component of our budget. So he has a choice. Pay $300 billion on $13 trillion, or pay $500 billion on $13 trillion. It's up to you, right? So it's 3% or 5%. So that's one problem. Second problem is the regional banks. He's blown a hole through their balance sheets. There's $1.9 trillion of real estate loans in the regional banks... there's only $800 billion in the money center banks, and he blew their banks to garbage. These banks are out of business. They can't make money offering us 5.5% CD rates. So he's gonna have the next crisis if he doesn't lower rates. It's a serious mess in the capital markets and real estate and fixed income... anything that was yield related. Will he keep rates here? Yes, unfortunately. Why? He's up for, he's leaving in January. Powell's out. He's not going to be the guy who let inflation come back... I don't think we'll get the March cut. I think the data, as soon as inflation falls below 2%, there'll be a lot of pressure on him. That might be May. So I think June, you'll see cuts. It'll become very obvious that the private sector is struggling as the consumer runs out of money... And why has this economy kept going? Not only his spending, people have jobs. And b/c they have jobs and employment rates are good, so they're spending. But they're spending money they don't have. It's not in their savings account. It's all gone. And now they're on the credit cards. [And now] Americans are willing to live on Affirm. Now we have new ways to spend money we don't have."

Barry Sternlicht recently went on an EPIC rant about the Fed, predicting when they'll lower rates and the challenges the US is facing "Inflation will fall below 2% as soon as the rent component catches up to the data. The question is, when will the Fed lower rates? But here's where it gets really tricky... The economy is too strong. It's too strong because of public spending. It's not too strong because of private spending. Private spending is rolling over.... Everyone's laying workers off. But the federal government's hiring them.... They're spending enough money to keep these guys employed. So the Fed keeps using this really blunt, horrible instrument 5.5% interest rates with two huge victims, because we have a $34 trillion deficit, and the debt is going to roll over. A third of our debt rolls over this year. He can pay 5.3% on it, or he can pay 3% if he lowers rates. That's $200 billion. That's a quarter of the defense budget, which is the largest component of our budget. So he has a choice. Pay $300 billion on $13 trillion, or pay $500 billion on $13 trillion. It's up to you, right? So it's 3% or 5%. So that's one problem. Second problem is the regional banks. He's blown a hole through their balance sheets. There's $1.9 trillion of real estate loans in the regional banks... there's only $800 billion in the money center banks, and he blew their banks to garbage. These banks are out of business. They can't make money offering us 5.5% CD rates. So he's gonna have the next crisis if he doesn't lower rates. It's a serious mess in the capital markets and real estate and fixed income... anything that was yield related. Will he keep rates here? Yes, unfortunately. Why? He's up for, he's leaving in January. Powell's out. He's not going to be the guy who let inflation come back... I don't think we'll get the March cut. I think the data, as soon as inflation falls below 2%, there'll be a lot of pressure on him. That might be May. So I think June, you'll see cuts. It'll become very obvious that the private sector is struggling as the consumer runs out of money... And why has this economy kept going? Not only his spending, people have jobs. And b/c they have jobs and employment rates are good, so they're spending. But they're spending money they don't have. It's not in their savings account. It's all gone. And now they're on the credit cards. [And now] Americans are willing to live on Affirm. Now we have new ways to spend money we don't have."

Triple Net Investor

334,267 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren

🚨 WARNING: MONDAY WILL BE THE WORST DAY OF 2026!! → Fed just confirmed rate HIKES. → Iran violated the ceasefire, and the peace deal is CANCELLED. → Japan is DUMPING U.S. Treasuries. → The AI bubble is starting to COLLAPSE. If you hold any assets today, you MUST read this: When markets open next week, this won't be “just another dip.” Stocks will dump. Bonds will dump. Gold and Silver will dump. Bitcoin will collapse. And insiders already know what's coming. They are not buying assets right now. They are reducing exposure and preparing for the biggest sell-off event of the year. At the same time, pressure is intensifying throughout the global financial system. China is continuing to reduce Treasury exposure. Japan's bond market remains under severe pressure, forcing the BOJ into continued support operations. When the world's largest creditors step away from sovereign debt markets simultaneously, liquidity evaporates. → Global bond markets are under extreme stress → Japanese bond yields continue surging higher → Demand for U.S. Treasuries is deteriorating → Liquidity conditions are tightening across markets → Volatility is spreading through every major asset class → Energy markets remain highly unstable → The AI bubble is starting to deflate as equities already weaken → Asset managers are dumping stocks and reducing market exposure This is no longer a localized issue. This is systemic stress building across MULTIPLE sectors simultaneously. And now geopolitical risk has escalated even further. New strikes between the U.S. and Iran have erupted after the ceasefire was violated. That is how energy markets become impossible to control. Oil does not rise slowly. It goes parabolic. Inflation accelerates worldwide. Which means interest rates stay higher for longer. And risk assets? They do not dip. They DUMP HARD. This is exactly how financial chain reactions begin. Because once markets start pricing long-term instability instead of short-term uncertainty, everything changes. Liquidity is already being withdrawn across multiple layers of the financial system. This is no longer about positioning alone - it is about the systemic stress. When one node breaks, it does not stay contained. It collapses EVERYTHING. I have spent decades studying macro cycles, liquidity flows, and systemic market reactions like this. That's how I knew Bitcoin would top out in October 2025 and called the $126K top. When the next move becomes clear, I will share it here first. Follow and turn notifications on. By the time mainstream media starts reporting it, it's already too late.

🚨 WARNING: MONDAY WILL BE THE WORST DAY OF 2026!! → Fed just confirmed rate HIKES. → Iran violated the ceasefire, and the peace deal is CANCELLED. → Japan is DUMPING U.S. Treasuries. → The AI bubble is starting to COLLAPSE. If you hold any assets today, you MUST read this: When markets open next week, this won't be “just another dip.” Stocks will dump. Bonds will dump. Gold and Silver will dump. Bitcoin will collapse. And insiders already know what's coming. They are not buying assets right now. They are reducing exposure and preparing for the biggest sell-off event of the year. At the same time, pressure is intensifying throughout the global financial system. China is continuing to reduce Treasury exposure. Japan's bond market remains under severe pressure, forcing the BOJ into continued support operations. When the world's largest creditors step away from sovereign debt markets simultaneously, liquidity evaporates. → Global bond markets are under extreme stress → Japanese bond yields continue surging higher → Demand for U.S. Treasuries is deteriorating → Liquidity conditions are tightening across markets → Volatility is spreading through every major asset class → Energy markets remain highly unstable → The AI bubble is starting to deflate as equities already weaken → Asset managers are dumping stocks and reducing market exposure This is no longer a localized issue. This is systemic stress building across MULTIPLE sectors simultaneously. And now geopolitical risk has escalated even further. New strikes between the U.S. and Iran have erupted after the ceasefire was violated. That is how energy markets become impossible to control. Oil does not rise slowly. It goes parabolic. Inflation accelerates worldwide. Which means interest rates stay higher for longer. And risk assets? They do not dip. They DUMP HARD. This is exactly how financial chain reactions begin. Because once markets start pricing long-term instability instead of short-term uncertainty, everything changes. Liquidity is already being withdrawn across multiple layers of the financial system. This is no longer about positioning alone - it is about the systemic stress. When one node breaks, it does not stay contained. It collapses EVERYTHING. I have spent decades studying macro cycles, liquidity flows, and systemic market reactions like this. That's how I knew Bitcoin would top out in October 2025 and called the $126K top. When the next move becomes clear, I will share it here first. Follow and turn notifications on. By the time mainstream media starts reporting it, it's already too late.

0xNobler

186,467 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

5/28/2026 Daily Recap: When Drones Fly! - We were given some news that the U.S. government could be investing directly into drone companies. $AVEX $RCAT $RDW $AVAV $DRS $KTOS $UMAC $ONDS and just about every aerospace and defense name had a great day today! - Software continues to act like a group that has bottomed $MSFT $ORCL $TEAM $NOW $RBRK - Industrial metals are really acting incredible $STLD $NUE $AA $CENX $ATI $TECK $RIO $SCCO. - $MAGS continue to act fantastic $AAPL $GOOGL $AMZN $TSLA and $NVDA trying to reclaim the 20sma. - Crypto both down on the day while markets push into new all time highs. Easy avoid for now. $BTC $ETH - $CLOU ETF starting to look a heck of a lot better. Names in that group have already been acting well $DDOG $DOCN $AKAM $TWLO - $ARKG genomics incredible past few sessions $TXG $TWST $CRSP $PSNL $ILMN - $TAN continues to speed up $FSLR $SEDG $ENPH - $QQQ getting back towards 10x ATR from the 50sma so keep new positions on a tight leash - $CL_F continues to weaken which is reducing inflation fears and helping drive names higher. - Ignoring what the index is doing and focusing on your entries will pay you far better than being worried about how stretched the Q's might be. - Getting stopped out in quick succession on new positions and seeing leaders have failed breakouts would be the only reason to get negative. We haven't seen much of that yet.

5/28/2026 Daily Recap: When Drones Fly! - We were given some news that the U.S. government could be investing directly into drone companies. $AVEX $RCAT $RDW $AVAV $DRS $KTOS $UMAC $ONDS and just about every aerospace and defense name had a great day today! - Software continues to act like a group that has bottomed $MSFT $ORCL $TEAM $NOW $RBRK - Industrial metals are really acting incredible $STLD $NUE $AA $CENX $ATI $TECK $RIO $SCCO. - $MAGS continue to act fantastic $AAPL $GOOGL $AMZN $TSLA and $NVDA trying to reclaim the 20sma. - Crypto both down on the day while markets push into new all time highs. Easy avoid for now. $BTC $ETH - $CLOU ETF starting to look a heck of a lot better. Names in that group have already been acting well $DDOG $DOCN $AKAM $TWLO - $ARKG genomics incredible past few sessions $TXG $TWST $CRSP $PSNL $ILMN - $TAN continues to speed up $FSLR $SEDG $ENPH - $QQQ getting back towards 10x ATR from the 50sma so keep new positions on a tight leash - $CL_F continues to weaken which is reducing inflation fears and helping drive names higher. - Ignoring what the index is doing and focusing on your entries will pay you far better than being worried about how stretched the Q's might be. - Getting stopped out in quick succession on new positions and seeing leaders have failed breakouts would be the only reason to get negative. We haven't seen much of that yet.

Ariel Hernandez

27,071 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

BREAKING: 10 days into the job, Trump is already throwing his new Fed Chair under the bus. The market priced his confirmation as a guaranteed rate cut. Hours after the swearing-in, Trump was on Truth Social demanding cuts that aren't coming. Here's why the entire 2026 rate cut thesis just broke: For most of 2026, Wall Street traded on one assumption. Trump replaces Powell with his own guy. The Fed delivers the cuts the President has been demanding for two years, and risk assets rip. Every long-duration asset on the board priced it in. Warsh's Senate confirmation passed 54-45 in May. The closest Fed Chair vote in modern history. The political fight was taken as proof Warsh would be loyal to the man who picked him. Then everyone read his actual Senate testimony: Warsh has been a public critic of the Fed's bloated balance sheet for over a decade. His pitch was what he called "regime change" at the Fed. He's philosophically closer to Paul Volcker than to a yes-man. Volcker pushed rates above 19% in 1981 to break inflation. Wall Street hated him at the time. History celebrates him today. That's the model Warsh has been studying for years. Not the easing playbook Trump wants. Then the macro data turned on him before he even took office. The May 28th PCE reading was the highest in nearly three years. WTI crude jumped almost 6% on June 1st to $92.54 a barrel. Iran had just suspended indirect talks with the US. Tariff costs from Trump's own February executive orders are still working through goods prices. Sticky inflation from policy decisions Trump made himself. Warsh walked into the worst possible setup. Hot inflation, an energy shock, and a President demanding the one move that would make inflation worse. Yesterday, June 2nd, Trump went back on Truth Social to attack Warsh for not cutting fast enough. 10 days into the job. From his own hand-picked Chair. This is where retail investors get trapped. The narrative all year was simple. Trump installs his guy. Cheap money returns. Buy everything that benefits. That trade required three things to be true at once. 1. Warsh has to be a puppet. 2. Inflation has to cooperate. 3. There has to be political room to cut. Right now, zero of those three are true. Markets have already priced out 2026 rate cuts entirely. A rate hike by year-end is now considered more likely than a cut. Retail positioning hasn't caught up. Most portfolios are still leaning long-duration tech and rate-sensitive assets that work in a cutting cycle and bleed in a holding cycle. Institutional positioning has caught up months ago. Berkshire sits on a record $397 billion in cash. Hedge funds rotated into commodities and short-duration. The S&P sits at all-time highs while the smart money is positioned for the cuts not arriving. A Fed Chair who believes in inflation credibility doesn't cut into rising prices regardless of who appointed him. The investors who win stopped trying to predict the next Fed move years ago. The market will reprice when it stops pretending otherwise. You can guess which week that happens. Or you can run a system that doesn't have to guess. Surmount automates your investments with rules-based strategies built on data, not political headlines...

BREAKING: 10 days into the job, Trump is already throwing his new Fed Chair under the bus. The market priced his confirmation as a guaranteed rate cut. Hours after the swearing-in, Trump was on Truth Social demanding cuts that aren't coming. Here's why the entire 2026 rate cut thesis just broke: For most of 2026, Wall Street traded on one assumption. Trump replaces Powell with his own guy. The Fed delivers the cuts the President has been demanding for two years, and risk assets rip. Every long-duration asset on the board priced it in. Warsh's Senate confirmation passed 54-45 in May. The closest Fed Chair vote in modern history. The political fight was taken as proof Warsh would be loyal to the man who picked him. Then everyone read his actual Senate testimony: Warsh has been a public critic of the Fed's bloated balance sheet for over a decade. His pitch was what he called "regime change" at the Fed. He's philosophically closer to Paul Volcker than to a yes-man. Volcker pushed rates above 19% in 1981 to break inflation. Wall Street hated him at the time. History celebrates him today. That's the model Warsh has been studying for years. Not the easing playbook Trump wants. Then the macro data turned on him before he even took office. The May 28th PCE reading was the highest in nearly three years. WTI crude jumped almost 6% on June 1st to $92.54 a barrel. Iran had just suspended indirect talks with the US. Tariff costs from Trump's own February executive orders are still working through goods prices. Sticky inflation from policy decisions Trump made himself. Warsh walked into the worst possible setup. Hot inflation, an energy shock, and a President demanding the one move that would make inflation worse. Yesterday, June 2nd, Trump went back on Truth Social to attack Warsh for not cutting fast enough. 10 days into the job. From his own hand-picked Chair. This is where retail investors get trapped. The narrative all year was simple. Trump installs his guy. Cheap money returns. Buy everything that benefits. That trade required three things to be true at once. 1. Warsh has to be a puppet. 2. Inflation has to cooperate. 3. There has to be political room to cut. Right now, zero of those three are true. Markets have already priced out 2026 rate cuts entirely. A rate hike by year-end is now considered more likely than a cut. Retail positioning hasn't caught up. Most portfolios are still leaning long-duration tech and rate-sensitive assets that work in a cutting cycle and bleed in a holding cycle. Institutional positioning has caught up months ago. Berkshire sits on a record $397 billion in cash. Hedge funds rotated into commodities and short-duration. The S&P sits at all-time highs while the smart money is positioned for the cuts not arriving. A Fed Chair who believes in inflation credibility doesn't cut into rising prices regardless of who appointed him. The investors who win stopped trying to predict the next Fed move years ago. The market will reprice when it stops pretending otherwise. You can guess which week that happens. Or you can run a system that doesn't have to guess. Surmount automates your investments with rules-based strategies built on data, not political headlines...

Logan Weaver

39,785 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten