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Flood explains how so much alpha comes from just having capital when others don't "I fundamentally believe this is where a lot of the returns come from." "Crypto is very leveraged, crypto is very volatile, and these opportunities just present themselves where everybody understands that something is heavily mispriced...

82,561 views • 4 months ago •via X (Twitter)

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Chamath: “Private equity in general is totally hosed.” 🏢🚨 “I think the history of this is important.” “There was a long standing belief that the best way to generate the best risk adjusted return was to have what's called a 60/40 allocation. 60% to bonds and 40% to equities.” “Over many years, especially when we artificially suppressed rates at zero, a lot of people started to move their allocations away from 60/40 and they started to make more and more investments further out on the risk curve.” “The biggest beneficiaries of that were venture capital, private equity, and hedge funds.” “The thing with private equity is that because rates were zero, they had an infinite amount of borrowing capacity at very little downside to them, and so they were able to manufacture returns much faster than venture capital and hedge funds could.” “So as a result, you had an initial group of people that were defining the asset class, making a ton of money, and then you had all these fast followers that said, ‘Well, if they're doing it, I can do it too.’” “But then always what happens is then you have this flood of laggards that just flood the zone.” “And it's these laggards that make it very difficult to generate returns because they start overpaying for assets, they start mismanaging and under managing the assets that they do own.” “That created a lot of competition, and so that's why you see this hockey stick graph.” “And when you see that kind of graph, it doesn't matter what asset class it is. The returns go to zero.” “And so we've seen this in venture capital. We've seen this in hedge funds. And we're now going to see this in private equity.”

The All-In Podcast

800,205 views • 9 months ago

Interview from 5 months ago with “RA” the new UFO whistleblower Randy Anderson by Gerb Here he describes the sphere encounter and the possible consciousness connection and how his memories of the incident are strangely fuzzy Link to full interview in comments H/T wow RA - “Both the items they had under there, they said somehow interacted with consciousness and, and the way he said it, this is why it's so fuzzy, he said, I wouldn't quote these things 'cause I'm gonna try to just remember the, the, the context. And I, and I can again, like when I meditate and I think about this, I can usually get more back. But just, just like sitting here talking to you and remembering it, it's difficult sometimes. But I remember him saying, we don't understand quite how to operate the systems or how they, but they do interact with consciousness so certain and some people they interact with and some people they don't. So certain people will go up to the object and it will respond. And some people go up to the object and it does nothing. So certain types of, I don't know if that's related to DNA or to consciousness or what, whatever, but it's different. People will have a different response and they, they had us kind of walked closer to the, the window and nothing happened. So we didn't, I mean, I don't know if we got closer or something would've happened, but they, I don't know if they were even looking for that, but maybe, you know, that they, that's one thing he said that like certain people will go near the object and will react. And he didn't describe how it would react. He instead it would react,” RA - “There's a really weird component to this, and I don't know what this means, but when I think back to this particular memory and, and this never happens to me in any other thing, I, I get real fuzzy. It gets real fuzzy, like, like almost like something was purposely done to to, to make it that way. Because I have a very photographic memory and things I've done in the military. Like I can tell you the color of the buttons on a shirt of a guy that I sniped from, you know, 800 feet, 800 meters away. So I mean, I, there's for me to not remember this is really bothers me, but there's, there's some cloudiness when I try to access this part of my brain, you know, I can definitely, maybe it's, it could definitely be the, the objects itself that had, and it felt this, this is why it's difficult because it obviously, it felt weird being down there. Okay. There's, there's something like, there was just, it is an unnatural feeling we're doing. It felt like we were doing something that wasn't normal. I mean, the fact that we were so deep underground, me and the dude were kind of freaked out and, and, but we didn't display that outwardly because we're trained to not do that, you know? But internally, yeah, I was like, what the hell is going on? And when they talk about optimal stuff, they didn't say it like, by the way, aliens are real like you or anything like of that sort. It was just, oh yeah, this is the off world technology division, this is Chuck, this is whatever. And just started talking like everything was normal and we just went along with it because we acted like it was normal, but the first time I'd ever been exposed to it and it, it was a lot to take in. So that could be part of it too.”

neandrewthal

41,422 views • 1 year ago

🚨 MOST PEOPLE AREN'T READY FOR WHAT HAPPENS BELOW $58K I’ve been trading crypto for 9 years and have never seen anything like this Everyone is screaming that bottom is in, or we're going to 30k, but it won't be either of these Reversals never happen without shaking out majority The chart won’t follow the same pattern forever If this macro pattern continues, Bitcoin must eventually drop to around 30-32k in a few months, despite macro and global demand But at some point, every pattern has to break When? When the fundamentals and market sentiment no longer support it A pattern should confirm reality - not contradict it. If it does, forget the pattern. It has outlived its usefulness, just like every pattern before it If you look at previous cycles, every major bottom took time to form. You had months to buy near the lows And that's exactly why almost nobody did Everyone was waiting for lower prices Everyone wants to buy the capitulation wick But what if that wick never comes? Then nobody buys $16k was obviously a great BTC entry last cycle I think everyone in crypto knew that... Yet almost nobody bought. Not because it wasn't cheap, but because everyone was waiting for a nice round number: $10k/$15k Or they bought too early, just like many are doing now, deployed all their capital, lost conviction, or even sold because they were convinced BTC had much further to fall That's how bottoms are formed My base case is that we'll spend the summer ranging, then slowly bleed toward $50k After that, maybe one final flush to ~$42k, just enough to convince everyone another capitulation, "the final dump to 30k" is coming But it never comes, just like it never came last cycle or the one before it Many things about BTC price action change over time, but one thing never does When it's the top, almost nobody believes it's the top. When it's the bottom, almost nobody believes it's the bottom. Today 50% think that the bottom is in Other 40% wait for 30-40k That's why I think it's not a bottom, and we won't bottom at 30-40k But if you read the sentiment differently, or read this later, and you already think today's price is attractive but believe it'll go even lower, don't overthink it Most likely everybody thinks so So just buy and hold until $240k It's much better to buy at $50k than wait for $30k that may never come and end up not buying at all. That's why I've already bought 30% here Will DCA at 58K, 55K, 52K, and 50% at 42k Want to remind you that I called each major top and bottom of the last 7 years, including exact 126K BTC top: And soon i will make this account private If you read this, you probably get the biggest informational edge in your lifetime So make sure to follow me and turn notifs on

𝗰𝘆𝗰𝗹𝗼𝗽

740,043 views • 28 days ago