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Food for thought #GamblingX

251,292 次观看 • 9 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

49 条评论

SpotSelector 的头像
SpotSelector9 个月前

Yeah but those are the sports books implied probabilities,not the actual ones.

Philly Sharp 的头像
Philly Sharp9 个月前

Ok

Cardio Kuhn 的头像
Cardio Kuhn9 个月前

@BornAgain____ Is he wrong ? What about the vig ? Do you run with the implied probability or find the true odds ?

SpotSelector 的头像
SpotSelector9 个月前

@PhillySharp1 I try to narrow it down to the true odds

Philly Sharp 的头像
Philly Sharp9 个月前

@CKuhn53777 regardless it gives you a great understanding of how it works and what the numbers mean. MOST people have zero understanding of this and especially people new to this

SpotSelector 的头像
SpotSelector9 个月前

@CKuhn53777 Agreed,it’s just important to formulate your own data rather than relying on the sports books.

Philly Sharp 的头像
Philly Sharp9 个月前

@CKuhn53777 I get it im just giving people a foundation or starting point to understand the numbers theyre betting.

SpotSelector 的头像
SpotSelector9 个月前

@CKuhn53777 💯

Blank Check Wagers 的头像
Blank Check Wagers9 个月前

I am well prepared 🔥🏌‍♂️

Philly Sharp 的头像
Philly Sharp9 个月前

Good shit!

Blank Check Wagers 的头像
Blank Check Wagers9 个月前

Its important gamblers know their break even % at the odds they play. Im convinced this is why recreational gamblers lose money. They're win percentage is below the break even % for the odds they play. If you can hit 42%+ and profit at 2.5 decimal odds, why play 1.6 decimal?

MrOnePickLive 的头像
MrOnePickLive9 个月前

If it was this easy and simple you would be rich any team can fcking win any given day

Philly Sharp 的头像
Philly Sharp9 个月前

That isnt even remotely the point. You completely missed what this is even about brother

MrOnePickLive 的头像
MrOnePickLive9 个月前

??????

Brian Campbell 的头像
Brian Campbell9 个月前

Great info! And plus lines too +8000 has about 1.1% of hitting. But the people pushing the big parlays won’t tell you that 😆. I have had some success at least in NFL when I like a couple favorites with teasers over laying the juice. But each week at least one favorites is an L

Andrew Grizwold 的头像
Andrew Grizwold9 个月前

I agree with everything you said, me personally I like to stack big juiced bets into a parley, particularly in a samegame nba parley, where I’ll stack 3 or 4 heavy juiced prop bets into a parley to get it to +money and done well with that strategy.

Philly Sharp 的头像
Philly Sharp9 个月前

look i know you hit some but thats exactly what the book wants you to do and you know that

Chazinmadhouse 的头像
Chazinmadhouse9 个月前

But betting lines fluctuate with money on the line itself. The heavy the bet, the shorter the price. That doesn’t mean anything is less or more likely to happen surely? This would only be for opening lines :)

Philly Sharp 的头像
Philly Sharp9 个月前

when the line is set. it still tells ya what it correlates to regardless

Stephen Hairston 的头像
Stephen Hairston9 个月前

Check my guy out 💪🏼💪🏼 This is some real shit thou.

South Carolina’s Governor 🦉💸 的头像
South Carolina’s Governor 🦉💸9 个月前

@ClutchTipss This is the simplest I’ve seen anyone break it down like this

WAGER DETECTIVE 🕵‍♂️📚🖋 的头像
WAGER DETECTIVE 🕵‍♂️📚🖋5 个月前

👩🏼‍💼💭Wager Detective Im your biggest fan!!!

Zach 的头像
Zach9 个月前

Or you can use the odds / (abs(odds) + 100) formula for juiced odds

Tj 的头像
Tj9 个月前

This is helpful I like this

Philly Sharp 的头像
Philly Sharp9 个月前

Im glad. Thanks

TravmanianDD 的头像
TravmanianDD9 个月前

I never knew this. Thank you for sharing this info.

outsider 的头像
outsider9 个月前

@upyourlocks If you haven’t given thought to that, you probably shouldn’t be gambling (also, it’s probably the majority of people gambling)

Steven Golden (Manhands) 的头像
Steven Golden (Manhands)9 个月前

@StackinPlenty Facts

FAMEU$ 的头像
FAMEU$9 个月前

This is tuff af

Philly Sharp 的头像
Philly Sharp9 个月前

appreciate that

Breakers Bet 的头像
Breakers Bet9 个月前

We want to book your action.

dakory 的头像
dakory9 个月前

I like to get down on that -130. Probably shouldn’t say that but I think there’s value in that range give or take. Makes you realize like -170 should be a once in a blue moon bet.

Benjamin Rash 的头像
Benjamin Rash9 个月前

Yep. Some of the sharpest guys in the industry, one you and I both know, stated on his show his largest and best wager ever was a -600 that he felt was above 99% to cash. The EV on it was utter worldly

Jerry Jone's Burner 的头像
Jerry Jone's Burner5 个月前

their is no mathematical probablities when their is humans involved in the equation. I could just mentally check out and say it

Carltoned 的头像
Carltoned9 个月前

Saved this before and saving again, thanks GreyBeard

Philly Sharp 的头像
Philly Sharp9 个月前

I know you aint talking lol

Carltoned 的头像
Carltoned9 个月前

lol sign of maturity fucko

Philly Sharp 的头像
Philly Sharp9 个月前

what happened w you then?

Carltoned 的头像
Carltoned9 个月前

Embracing eternal youth Go Knicks!

Philly Sharp 的头像
Philly Sharp9 个月前

Fuck the Knicks

Carltoned 的头像
Carltoned9 个月前

lol playoffs yes, tonight no

Philly Sharp 的头像
Philly Sharp9 个月前

Both fuck that and them

MrOnePickLive 的头像
MrOnePickLive9 个月前

None of this sht matters man

Ken Kaib 的头像
Ken Kaib9 个月前

You gotta take the vig out of that number to tho. -110 is 50% and the -10 is the house edge

Philly Sharp 的头像
Philly Sharp9 个月前

i get it but it still gives people an understanding of what they mean and in my experience a shit ton of folks have zero clue

McGavin Cash 的头像
McGavin Cash9 个月前

Interestingly enough I always thought those percentages were what you had to win in order to break even. They might mean something else but they also mean what your winning percentage must be in order to not lose.

Philly Sharp 的头像
Philly Sharp9 个月前

break even if you bet -110 lines is like 52.4 ish

McGavin Cash 的头像
McGavin Cash9 个月前

If there's chart out there that posts the (+) side of things I would like to see that as well. Example +105, +110, +115 etc.

Philly Sharp 的头像
Philly Sharp9 个月前

Ill see if i can find anything