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Former #Ravens OL’er Wally Williams on why he believes Ronnie Stanley does not fit well into the Ravens’ offensive line. Full chat ➡️ Jerry Coleman Mike Preston #RavensFlock #RavensFootball #NFL

22,107 Aufrufe • vor 9 Monaten •via X (Twitter)

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OIL $120 BY NOVEMBER — AND HE STILL SAYS DEMAND DESTRUCTION IS NOT HERE Cédric Spahr, Ex Head of Investment at Credit Suisse Securities Europe Ltd in Switzerland, puts a number on the next move in crude — then refuses the panic that usually follows. Higher oil is coming, in his view. The rich-world economy breaking at the pump is not. That gap is the whole argument. HIS OIL CALL ➡️ From his market work, oil can easily rise toward $120 by October or November. ➡️ That is another 20% from here, as he frames it. ➡️ Diesel and jet fuel have already become tighter, and more expensive, than gasoline. ➡️ In Germany and France he sees about €2.10 a litre at the pump for gasoline. ➡️ Diesel, he says, is likely to get more expensive over the next four months. THE QUESTION ON THE TABLE ➡️ Then comes the question every logistics boss and farmer is whispering: if diesel hits €3 or €4 a litre, do companies stop producing and do farmers let the harvest rot? ➡️ Empty shelves are the fear. Trucks move the system. Without diesel, the system stalls. ➡️ That is the “magic border” people want named. Spahr refuses to name it as already crossed. STILL FAR FROM THE BREAK ➡️ “I think we are still far from that,” Spahr said. ➡️ A path toward $120 is pain at the pump. ➡️ In his read, it is not yet the point where rich economies shut the factory door. THE 1980s REALITY CHECK ➡️ Spahr lived the early-1980s pump in Switzerland: about one franc a litre. ➡️ Today the sticker looks twice as high. After forty years of inflation, he still calls fuel “relatively cheap.” ➡️ The number on the totem pole is not the same as the burden on a high-value economy. WHY RICH COUNTRIES CAN STILL TAKE IT ➡️ It depends on how much value an economy adds per litre burned. ➡️ Switzerland sells expensive watches, medicines, and financial services. In that model, Spahr says fuel costs could probably be doubled and the machine would still run. ➡️ Some farmers on the Swiss plateau might quit or raise prices. The wider economy does not stop. ➡️ Germany and France are a different story. He can picture some SMEs throwing in the towel. That is strain, not system death. THE REAL SQUEEZE IS NOT THE DIESEL PUMP ➡️ “The main energy source for the modern economy today is electricity, not diesel,” Spahr said. ➡️ He expects European gas prices to rise hard into winter. That feeds through into power bills fast. ➡️ That is where he sees real consequences for small and mid-size firms — stacked on fuel, not instead of it. Energy inflation stays a longer problem. THE BOTTOM LINE Spahr’s sequence is simple: crude can still run toward $120 into autumn, diesel gets dearer than gasoline, and rich high-value economies can still absorb it. The €3–€4 horror line is not the tripwire yet. The quieter threat is power prices arriving on top of diesel, not a sudden collapse at the pump. #OilPrice #DemandDestruction #Diesel #FuelPrices #EnergyInflation #Spahr #EuropeEnergy HT: YouTube Dr. Dietmar Peetz

Mark

19,387 Aufrufe • vor 13 Tagen

This is why the Colin / Allie pickup story has never sat right with me. In Trial 1, Colin Albert and Allie McCabe both seem very comfortable with the clean parts of the story12:10. Allie was there. Colin came out. It was starting to snow. But then the details that would actually make the story feel real suddenly get blurry. Colin says Allie texted him that she was there. He says he responded “come in.” He says he came out 30 seconds to a minute later. But when asked where Allie’s car was in the driveway, he does not remember. When asked what part of the car he got into, he does not remember. Front passenger seat? “Could have been.” Was anyone else in the car? He does not remember. Was anyone else in the car when she dropped him off? He does not remember. Then Allie says she believes she was in the driveway, on the left side, but she is not entirely sure. She does not remember whether she came from Chapman or Cedarcrest. She does not know which front door Colin came out of. She says “I believe” like she is saying what she is supposed to say, not what she actually remembers. So they both remember the time. They both remember it was starting to snow. But they cannot clearly remember the driveway, the route, the door, the seat, or who was in the car. Now add the new Life360 details, which raise even more questions about Allie’s movements and whether the documentary record actually supports the simple version we were told. At some point, this stops looking like a normal memory gap and starts looking like a story that was built around a timestamp. I am not saying what definitely happened. I am saying the testimony and the data do not line up cleanly enough to just wave it away. If the pickup happened exactly the way they said it did, why are the most basic details so hard to answer?

Dixie Normus

33,469 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

IRAN FIRED BALLISTIC MISSILES AT A U.S. CARRIER — NANCE SAYS IT WAS A WARNING, NOT A KILL SHOT CENTCOM admitted Iran fired ballistic missiles — not cruise missiles — at a U.S. aircraft carrier near Hormuz. The USS Washington executed an evasion maneuver. IRGC then claimed the carrier and a destroyer were hit, damaged, and forced to flee. Malcolm Nance, former U.S. Navy senior chief and naval intelligence officer, sat with Mario Nawfal and drew a hard line between the shot, the propaganda, and what it would actually take to sink a carrier. THE SHOT ➡️ CENTCOM confirmed ballistic missiles were aimed at the carrier group, and the Washington maneuvered to avoid them. ➡️ IRGC claimed both the carrier and a destroyer were damaged and driven out of the engagement area. ➡️ Nance’s split verdict is blunt: he believes they were forced to leave the box. He does not believe they were damaged. THE HALF-TRUTH ➡️ Nance says Iran’s pattern is always the same: verify one real act, then pile a lie on top of it. ➡️ “The best form of propaganda is a truth, a half-truth capitalized by a lie.” ➡️ That is why a few ballistic missiles get sold as a carrier kill. The launch happened. The Hollywood ending did not. WHY FIVE MISSILES IS NOT A SINK ATTEMPT ➡️ Mario argued Iran would not try a real carrier kill with two or three rounds. Nance said Mario won that debate. ➡️ A serious attempt, in Nance’s math, looks like a massive coordinated salvo — he used the extreme of hundreds of missiles plus drones punching through the screen. ➡️ Five ballistic missiles is not that. “That’s not even attempting it.” ➡️ He calls yesterday’s fire technically warning shots: get off Fujairah, sit farther south near Salalah, do not loiter inside easy range. WHAT ACTUALLY KILLS A CARRIER ➡️ Ballistic missiles launched from Iran give the Navy about 20 to 30 minutes of warning. Computers plot the box while the bird is still climbing. ➡️ Aegis destroyers sit on the carrier with dozens of interceptors. Hitting those escorts is already hard. Hitting the carrier through them with a handful of rounds is harder. ➡️ Carriers die from fire, not from a clean hole in the paint. Nance’s yardstick is the Forrestal blaze and World War II hanger-deck disasters: a lucky pierce, ammunition cooking off, a conflagration eating stem to stern. ➡️ One or two hits can wreck aircraft, shut the flight deck, and send the ship running for Diego Garcia. That is not the same as sinking 6,000 sailors. ➡️ If Iran ever “lost their mind” and actually burned a carrier, Nance’s read is the United States does not climb back down the ladder. A carrier is one-twelfth of U.S. strike aviation. That is the line he will not treat as a game. THE NEW REALITY IN HORMUZ ➡️ This is not Nance’s young-sailor Gulf, when the Navy hunted Boghammers and expected to dominate the strait. ➡️ Hormuz at its narrowest is 21 to 32 nautical miles. You can see both sides. Iran can now touch U.S. ships in a way almost nobody believed before this war. ➡️ “Now they have the capacity to sink us, not just hurt us.” ➡️ That is why he is glad CENTCOM’s naval side is not taking dumb risk just to look tough. THE BOTTOM LINE Iran launched ballistic missiles at a U.S. carrier. The carrier moved. The damage claim is propaganda stacked on a real shot. Five missiles is a warning. A real kill shot is a different war — and Nance’s point is that Iran already proved it can reach the deck if someone is stupid enough to keep the ship in the wrong box. #Iran #USSWashington #Hormuz #MalcolmNance #USNavy #BallisticMissiles #CarrierGroup HT: YouTube Mario Nawfal Mario Nawfal

Mark

71,392 Aufrufe • vor 21 Tagen

SERIOUS NEGOTIATIONS ONGOING: CROOKE SAYS SAUDI IS BEING PULLED TOWARD IRAN Former British diplomat and MI6 officer Alastair Crooke says the most important negotiations in the Gulf are not happening between Washington and Tehran. He argues a quieter campaign is already underway with Saudi tribal power brokers. In his reading, the destination is not a U.S.–Iran ceasefire paper. It is to pull the kingdom toward an Iranian–Houthi sphere — and leave American oil companies on the outside. THE TALKS YOU DO NOT SEE ➡️ Crooke says Yemen’s public line — the strait stays open except to Saudi vessels — looks like a prelude, not the endgame. ➡️ He suspects “serious negotiations that are going on that we don’t see.” He draws a sharp line between two layers of politics. Foreign ministers of Oman, Abu Dhabi and Egypt sit in visible rooms and talk about Iran. Another layer, he says, is talking to the tribes that actually hold the kingdom together. ➡️ “The unseen part is always the more important.” THE SEVEN-YEAR PREP Crooke’s account of the groundwork is specific. He says a senior regional figure told him that for seven years a named Hezbollah officer lived with the Houthis on Hassan Nasrallah’s instruction. ➡️ The order was blunt: do not command them. Do not tell them what to do. Everything they do must be theirs, not ours. He says that work was concerted with Iran and that the current Houthi campaign was planned for five to seven years. The point is not a sudden raid. It is a long build that keeps Yemeni ownership while aligning the outcome with Tehran. THE AFGHANISTAN METHOD Crooke does not claim a signed deal. He says he has no privileged intercept. He says he has seen this movie. ➡️ He recalls how Afghanistan’s government fell in ten days after years of patient tribal work under Qasem Soleimani. Clans that had been at war were brought to one sentence: we will change the government and we will not oppose it. ➡️ He suspects something similar is now being put to Saudi tribal leaders: do you want a more equitable outcome, or one family taking all the cash and all the credit while you are diminished and cast aside? THE FRAGILE PILLAR That pitch only works, in his telling, because the Saudi pillar is narrower than the skyline. ➡️ The state was built on a sectarian Wahhabi vanguard and then on one family holding the money, the politics, and the decisions. He points to the Ritz-Carlton episode as the moment senior tribal figures were squeezed until they turned over wealth. Southern borders, he says, are far from loyal to the palace. Three provinces taken from Yemen in the 1930s still sit on that fault line. ➡️ Many of those tribes, he argues, are “quite sympathetic” to folding the kingdom into what he calls the Iranian–Houthi revolution. Eastern provinces would have to be discussed with Iran because they are majority Shia. He does not say Tehran will annex them. He says the final say in this metamorphosis would sit with Iran. NO FUTURE FOR U.S. OIL COMPANIES Asked whether American majors still have a place if that shift happens, Crooke does not sell a comeback story. ➡️ Maybe later, he says, after tribes settle who gets what — and even then he calls a return of U.S. companies “highly doubtful.” Their experience of American firms, in his words, “has not been great.” Old concession papers would be treated as no longer current and forced into renegotiation. ➡️ The sentiment underneath, he says, is simple: people are going to take back what is theirs. A tribal Saudi still needs revenue. That does not mean the old Wall Street–petrodollar pipeline gets invited back. THE BOTTOM LINE Crooke’s claim is not that America is secretly cutting a new Iran deal. It is that another set of talks — tribal, unseen, years in the making — is aiming at a different prize: a Saudi Arabia no longer organized around one family, no longer the Western substitute for Persian power, and no longer a locked-in home for U.S. oil companies. He doubts those firms have a future in this scenario. He calls it a direction of travel, not a finished contract. If he is even half right, the map of the Gulf is being rewritten off-camera — and Washington’s energy champions are not in the draft. #AlastairCrooke #SaudiArabia #Iran #Houthis #USOil #HiddenTalks #MiddleEast HT: YouTube Danny Haiphong

Mark

169,999 Aufrufe • vor 8 Tagen