From Copernicus: This shows how the expected date for breaching 1.5C has been creeping ever closer in recent years. The orange date shows the baseline for the extrapolation; the red date shows when 1.5C is breached based on the trend...

According to James Hansen, we are effectively there, at +1.5°C, and I'm not going back anytime soon. Recently, he has also said that the goal of staying under +2.0°C is effectively dead: "implausible." By most projections we'll hit +2.0°C before 2040, and at +3.0°C soon after.

Let's talk about what life was like when it was 1.5C colder. I will start, mass starvation/food insecurity and frequent crop failures. Deaths from climate related events were much much higher than today. This is what that 1.5C rise brought us, prosperity.

Of course, the data has been changed and fabricated. Also, much of the warming (esp early 20th century) was natural and the anthropogenic portion is unknown. Actual anthropogenic warming is likely just 0.7°

The historical data is changed every day adding artificial warming. No anthropogenic warming was detectable before 1978. Warming since then 0.7°. Quite simple to those doing honest accounting which you appear unacquainted with.

@ryankatzrosene WtF.. Show your data and we can start talking.. Otherwise.. GTFO

@ryankatzrosene It’s truly amazing how the data has just been changed. And it keeps happening. Every data set, every time it’s adjusted the warming trend increases. Every time. Always.

It seems like it’s been breached already, and we are still alive. 🤷‍♂️🤯😳😂

What made you think it would be otherwise?

Aren’t we moving away from the “optimum for humanity” climate? And triggering all kinds of positive feedback loops that make global boiling inevitable?

@ryankatzrosene it is death over time and not like a massive atomic bomb

@ryankatzrosene The Earth population has been growing and poverty has been decreasing while the CO2 levels were going up. At which point do you project a reversal?

@Scam_Kwon @ryankatzrosene Almost all countries on the world aren't at replacement levels in terms of population so we are expected to reach peak population in a couple of decades.

@Scam_Kwon @ryankatzrosene I’m sure the effect of rich people becoming too lazy to have kids has a lot to do with the increased CO2 levels. 😂

It’s all about CO2 lvls. Earth is at 460 ppm. CO2 not harmful to humans until 4-5,000 ppm. CO2 samples of over 100,000 yrs(ice core) have NEVER shown over 2800 ppm. We (EARTH)are actually low in CO2. Higher levels of CO2 is what creates life on this planet. Learn the facts.

hmm, I guess we better reduce emissions by 0.5% by economically crippling the average person in the west and shipping off all intense carbon production to third world countries who will do it far less efficiently. It's the only solution

1.5 is a political number that was agreed on, not scientific. Quote from Kathern Hayhoe (hardly a climate denier)

Excellent simulation. It's wrong though cause I think we're there already. We're due an el Nino and the rate is going to likely jump in the next 18 mths. We're going to 2C very soon.

Blah Blah Blah.... Fun Fact, 1997 Hottest Year on Record h/t @NOAAClimate

Nice animation. Note that since July 2023, the temperature anomaly has averaged +1.57°C. Yes some months might dip below 1.5, but very very likey not enough to bring the average back under 1.5.

Humans would have been wise to listen to listen to the experts of the past, when it was known that even 1C of warming over 1,000 years would occasion great changes on earth over time, being approximately 1/4 of the change between the climate of the late 19th century and that of the glacial age, as evidenced by this 1892 Popular Science Monthly excerpt.

Is that really from climate models though or just extrapolating from short-term warming rate? Models have been pretty damn good, even going back like 50 years.

@mrwx4caster I wouldn't be surprised if it happens earlier, sometime in 2028 or earlier.

Spoiler alert: The climate continousely changed over the last 4 billion years. We won't change it. Question is: Are we going to adapt ourselves or cry a river over "good ol'times"?

We are already at +1.5 ºC above pre-industrial. I am very disappointed to see Copernicus fitting the data with a straight line.

Who cares if it's 1.5C more , I don't it's -15C here.

happens when you keep projecting a linear trend on what is clearly an exponential

The 1.5 C “limit” has always been an unattainable goal. Even the trolls… pardon, the “climate scientists” of CoP 15 in Paris knew it, but the reward was too good to let it go💵💴💶💴💵💰💷

Times are changing. It seems to be speeding up. The future is closer now…. In 2008, a simple projection suggested the world would pass 1.5C of warming in 2048. In 2016, it suggested 2038. In 2022, 2032. Today, current trend lines suggest 2029. The date has moved up nearly a decade in just a decade, and nearly two decades since the 2008 election.

Q: As the extrapolatation technically both "smooths over" recent acceleration, and assumes last 30 years as basis for future, do u see likely risk for earlier than 2029?

Tampered temperature records serve the purpose of communistic take over of the world. They have been planning this for decades, and now is their time of action. But the coup will fail.

Tell me about the difference, in your mind, between +1.499 and +1.501.

I'd be very interested to see a plot of "predicted 1.5C breach date" vs. "last date of data set used to compute the trend", to see the trend in breach date. By any chance is that easy to make from the data used to create that excellent gif? Thanks.

Anyone else notice the sudden barrage of so-called experts post eco-terrorist propaganda?

Those predictions keep on happening.

The global average passes 1.5 in the next three years. But areas in the 2-3 standard deviations above the average (land areas) are already experiencing 4-5+ degrees. By 2029 they're unsurvivably hot, multiyear crop failures surge migrancy, civil society starts to implode.

Even more reason (even though it was dead obvious previously) to immediately reduce funding to research and mitigation and divert it to adaptation. You can't stop it. Human nature dictates that. Only adaptation makes sense.

Not good

squeeze play

Nice game. The warming rate will decrease in the coming decades.

That's a good thing

All manipulated, the GH gas’s effect is derctrasing logarithmic.

And when will the next little ice age start?

Better yet last week the temperature was in the 30’s and this week it’s in the high 40’s! True evidence of global warming! 😂