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Gavin on why Elon's new chip fab, Terafab, will be successful: "One, they have a partnership with Intel, which is very important. They're getting access to 50 years of institutional knowledge. The A teams at the semi cap equipment companies will be working with them. ASML, KLA, Lam Research,...

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Patrick OShaughnessy

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292,054 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce •via X (Twitter)

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Gavin Baker: "I've been optimistic that the fundamental shortage of wafers, which is really controlled by Taiwan Semi, will prevent a bubble." "If Taiwan Semi did what Jensen wanted, Nvidia could sell $2 trillion of GPUs in 2026 or 2027. But there is a limit where consumers would consume so much that you'd probably be in an overbuild. And you are starting to see companies go to Intel and Samsung. A lot of this may come down to the degree to which Taiwan Semi can maintain a lead over Intel and Samsung and the pace at which they expand capacity. If I were to watch one thing to understand whether there's a bubble, it's Taiwan Semi's capacity decisions. There's a Goldilocks zone where they expand enough to make it hard for Intel or Samsung to emerge as a second source, but they also keep the fundamental constraint on wafers that helps us avoid a bubble."
2:20

Gavin Baker: "I've been optimistic that the fundamental shortage of wafers, which is really controlled by Taiwan Semi, will prevent a bubble." "If Taiwan Semi did what Jensen wanted, Nvidia could sell $2 trillion of GPUs in 2026 or 2027. But there is a limit where consumers would consume so much that you'd probably be in an overbuild. And you are starting to see companies go to Intel and Samsung. A lot of this may come down to the degree to which Taiwan Semi can maintain a lead over Intel and Samsung and the pace at which they expand capacity. If I were to watch one thing to understand whether there's a bubble, it's Taiwan Semi's capacity decisions. There's a Goldilocks zone where they expand enough to make it hard for Intel or Samsung to emerge as a second source, but they also keep the fundamental constraint on wafers that helps us avoid a bubble."

Patrick OShaughnessy

542,684 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

Everyone thinks giving Taiwan to China is a concession. It's not. Taiwan blocks China from the Pacific. That's its only strategic value to America. But if China owns Taiwan — Taiwan now blocks Japan and South Korea from the Strait of Malacca. Suddenly Japan and South Korea have to stop China from taking Taiwan. At their own expense. Their own military. Their own risk. Trump just transferred the Taiwan problem from America to its allies. And in return China opens its financial markets. 1.4 billion people finance American debt. Giving Taiwan to China is not a concession. It is the trade of the century.
2:08

Everyone thinks giving Taiwan to China is a concession. It's not. Taiwan blocks China from the Pacific. That's its only strategic value to America. But if China owns Taiwan — Taiwan now blocks Japan and South Korea from the Strait of Malacca. Suddenly Japan and South Korea have to stop China from taking Taiwan. At their own expense. Their own military. Their own risk. Trump just transferred the Taiwan problem from America to its allies. And in return China opens its financial markets. 1.4 billion people finance American debt. Giving Taiwan to China is not a concession. It is the trade of the century.

Predictive History

35,185 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

"It's like being dropped into a zone of shocking competence." Marc Andreessen on working at one of Elon Musk’s companies: "Everybody is like ultra competent... If they're not, Elon sniffs it out and fires them." "The best engineers in the world want to work for him because he's the one CEO like this who's able to work with them as a peer." "So he just has this incredible positive selection where the smartest people in the world want to work for him and anybody who can't cut it gets fired." "The world sees this as raw aggression." "But it's beyond that. It's a very systematic way of optimizing these companies to be able to take on these profound challenges and then being able to actually solve all the problems... at a speed that's just completely unmatched." Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸 with David Senra
1:00

"It's like being dropped into a zone of shocking competence." Marc Andreessen on working at one of Elon Musk’s companies: "Everybody is like ultra competent... If they're not, Elon sniffs it out and fires them." "The best engineers in the world want to work for him because he's the one CEO like this who's able to work with them as a peer." "So he just has this incredible positive selection where the smartest people in the world want to work for him and anybody who can't cut it gets fired." "The world sees this as raw aggression." "But it's beyond that. It's a very systematic way of optimizing these companies to be able to take on these profound challenges and then being able to actually solve all the problems... at a speed that's just completely unmatched." Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸 with David Senra

a16z

210,812 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce

"Working at SpaceX is like being dropped into a zone of shocking competence." "Everybody is ultra competent. If they're not, Elon sniffs it out and fires them. The best engineers in the world want to work for him because he's the one CEO like this who's able to work with them as a peer. He has this incredible positive selection where the smartest people in the world want to work for him and anybody who can't cut it gets fired. The world sees this as raw aggression. But it's beyond that. It's a very systematic way of optimizing these companies to be able to take on these profound challenges and then being able to actually solve all the problems... at a speed that's just completely unmatched." Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸 on working at one of Elon Musk's companies.
0:50

"Working at SpaceX is like being dropped into a zone of shocking competence." "Everybody is ultra competent. If they're not, Elon sniffs it out and fires them. The best engineers in the world want to work for him because he's the one CEO like this who's able to work with them as a peer. He has this incredible positive selection where the smartest people in the world want to work for him and anybody who can't cut it gets fired. The world sees this as raw aggression. But it's beyond that. It's a very systematic way of optimizing these companies to be able to take on these profound challenges and then being able to actually solve all the problems... at a speed that's just completely unmatched." Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸 on working at one of Elon Musk's companies.

David Senra

55,623 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce

Darren on Xi and Taiwan He explains why Xi may not need to invade. But if he does, it wouldn't stop at Taiwan. "You've gotten to a certain age and you view it as the apotheosis of your life's achievement in order to complete the journey. Imperial China is what Taiwan is, and the takeover by the CCP is not complete until Taiwan falls. I don't think Xi needs to go if KMT wins the election coming up. KMT almost won last time, and that is a rapprochement party to the CCP. It's an accommodation party. I believe a bullet may never need to be fired in order for China to get what they want. That's the more likely outcome. If Taiwan is overtaken in a military exercise, is there any doubt that these other countries that have real historical beefs will be next? That's why Japan has been so vociferous at advocating for strong defense now under this new prime minister. There's a real historical beef between China and Japan. I think that would be exercised. It would not stop at Taiwan."
1:41

Darren on Xi and Taiwan He explains why Xi may not need to invade. But if he does, it wouldn't stop at Taiwan. "You've gotten to a certain age and you view it as the apotheosis of your life's achievement in order to complete the journey. Imperial China is what Taiwan is, and the takeover by the CCP is not complete until Taiwan falls. I don't think Xi needs to go if KMT wins the election coming up. KMT almost won last time, and that is a rapprochement party to the CCP. It's an accommodation party. I believe a bullet may never need to be fired in order for China to get what they want. That's the more likely outcome. If Taiwan is overtaken in a military exercise, is there any doubt that these other countries that have real historical beefs will be next? That's why Japan has been so vociferous at advocating for strong defense now under this new prime minister. There's a real historical beef between China and Japan. I think that would be exercised. It would not stop at Taiwan."

Patrick OShaughnessy

70,955 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

🚨PALMER LUCKEY: "Taiwan is not the end state for China. All the people who think this fight over Taiwan is the real fight are missing the point. China believes that the Philippines is their territory. They believe that Korea is their territory. They also believe that North Korea is their territory but they like them as a buffer state with South Korea but that would change the moment they could actually capture South Korea. They even think that most of Japan belongs to them. They think that it's theirs. They've tried over and over for 1000s of years and even today, even publicly, they won't say they own all of Japan but they do maintain they own part of Japan. It is really dangerous to let people with millennia long ambitions of ruling those areas go unchecked. Because even if you don't give a shit about Taiwan, which you should because our entire economy runs on chips from them and until we figure out how to make them better or as good ourselves we have to keep them around, there's a lot of reasons to make sure we're spooking China on Day 8, Day 80, Day 800."
1:26

🚨PALMER LUCKEY: "Taiwan is not the end state for China. All the people who think this fight over Taiwan is the real fight are missing the point. China believes that the Philippines is their territory. They believe that Korea is their territory. They also believe that North Korea is their territory but they like them as a buffer state with South Korea but that would change the moment they could actually capture South Korea. They even think that most of Japan belongs to them. They think that it's theirs. They've tried over and over for 1000s of years and even today, even publicly, they won't say they own all of Japan but they do maintain they own part of Japan. It is really dangerous to let people with millennia long ambitions of ruling those areas go unchecked. Because even if you don't give a shit about Taiwan, which you should because our entire economy runs on chips from them and until we figure out how to make them better or as good ourselves we have to keep them around, there's a lot of reasons to make sure we're spooking China on Day 8, Day 80, Day 800."

Autism Capital 🧩

2,652,083 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

🚨 JUST IN: President Trump recommends chip manufacturers IMMEDIATELY move their manufacturing facilities to AMERICA, as conversations with Xi confirmed how eager China is to take over Taiwan Chips are ESSENTIAL for AI and technological advances, and Taiwan is the world's chip manufacturing hub at the moment. That's one of the main reasons China wants to take Taiwan. TRUMP: "I would like to see everybody making chips in Taiwan come into America. To be honest with you, I think it's the greatest thing can you do. It's a heated situation. There is no question about it. As you know, we have massive amounts of chip companies now from Taiwan already coming in. "We expect to have 40% to 50% of the world chip business by the end of my term."
1:22

🚨 JUST IN: President Trump recommends chip manufacturers IMMEDIATELY move their manufacturing facilities to AMERICA, as conversations with Xi confirmed how eager China is to take over Taiwan Chips are ESSENTIAL for AI and technological advances, and Taiwan is the world's chip manufacturing hub at the moment. That's one of the main reasons China wants to take Taiwan. TRUMP: "I would like to see everybody making chips in Taiwan come into America. To be honest with you, I think it's the greatest thing can you do. It's a heated situation. There is no question about it. As you know, we have massive amounts of chip companies now from Taiwan already coming in. "We expect to have 40% to 50% of the world chip business by the end of my term."

Nick Sortor

1,983,771 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

Ben on Intel and TSMC: "A lot of tech companies didn't fully appreciate the extent to which TSMC offloaded risk onto the big tech companies. The risk TSMC is worried about is overcapacity. If we build a fab, we expect that fab to run for 30 years. So they are very biased toward being much more conservative. Risk doesn't disappear. It just moves. Today, when we say there's not enough compute, it's not like all the money that companies are putting in today manifests in compute tomorrow. It manifests in compute in 2028 and 2029. But this is where TSMC in some respects made the same mistake as the memory makers. Because they didn't invest, the shortages are going to be so acute, big tech companies that were foregoing so much revenue and so many profits will go through the pain of getting Intel up to speed, of getting Samsung up to speed. It never made rational sense for anyone to go work with Intel. In an unchanging world, TSMC would just win forever. The scarcity is what ultimately saved Intel. It was ultimately TSMC brought it on themselves."
1:42

Ben on Intel and TSMC: "A lot of tech companies didn't fully appreciate the extent to which TSMC offloaded risk onto the big tech companies. The risk TSMC is worried about is overcapacity. If we build a fab, we expect that fab to run for 30 years. So they are very biased toward being much more conservative. Risk doesn't disappear. It just moves. Today, when we say there's not enough compute, it's not like all the money that companies are putting in today manifests in compute tomorrow. It manifests in compute in 2028 and 2029. But this is where TSMC in some respects made the same mistake as the memory makers. Because they didn't invest, the shortages are going to be so acute, big tech companies that were foregoing so much revenue and so many profits will go through the pain of getting Intel up to speed, of getting Samsung up to speed. It never made rational sense for anyone to go work with Intel. In an unchanging world, TSMC would just win forever. The scarcity is what ultimately saved Intel. It was ultimately TSMC brought it on themselves."

Patrick OShaughnessy

100,885 görüntüleme • 7 gün önce

🇺🇸🇹🇼Trump says Taiwan "stole our chip industry" and tells them to "cool it": "If we would have had one of our presidents put 100% tariff on chips, they would have never left. They stole our chip industry." He just reframed the world's most critical semiconductor supply chain as theft. Taiwan didn't build TSMC into the most important company on earth through decades of investment, engineering talent, and strategic vision. They "stole" it because American presidents "didn't know what the hell they were doing." Then the warning: "Taiwan would be very smart to cool it a little bit." Cool what? Being a democracy? Wanting to remain self-governing? In 48 hours Trump called Taiwan "a place nobody knows how to define," held their arms sales hostage as a "negotiating chip," said he's "not looking" to defend their independence, blamed them for stealing American industry, and told them to cool it. Taiwan just learned what it costs when America needs something from China...
0:56

🇺🇸🇹🇼Trump says Taiwan "stole our chip industry" and tells them to "cool it": "If we would have had one of our presidents put 100% tariff on chips, they would have never left. They stole our chip industry." He just reframed the world's most critical semiconductor supply chain as theft. Taiwan didn't build TSMC into the most important company on earth through decades of investment, engineering talent, and strategic vision. They "stole" it because American presidents "didn't know what the hell they were doing." Then the warning: "Taiwan would be very smart to cool it a little bit." Cool what? Being a democracy? Wanting to remain self-governing? In 48 hours Trump called Taiwan "a place nobody knows how to define," held their arms sales hostage as a "negotiating chip," said he's "not looking" to defend their independence, blamed them for stealing American industry, and told them to cool it. Taiwan just learned what it costs when America needs something from China...

Mario Nawfal

894,031 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

ELON: I ENSURE GREAT ENGINEERS CAN FLOURISH AT MY COMPANIES “I consider one of my core responsibilities in running companies to have an environment where great engineers can flourish. And I think in a lot of companies, maybe most companies, if somebody is a really talented, driven engineer, their talents are suppressed. At some of the companies, engineering talent is suppressed in a way that is maybe not obviously bad, but where it's just so comfortable, and you're paid so much money, but the output you actually have to produce is so low that it's like a honey trap. They don't necessarily seem like bad places for engineers, but you have to say, a good engineer went in and what did they get out? The output of that engineering talent seems very low. Tesla is not a honey trap. We're demanding. You're going to get a lot of shit done. And it's going to be really cool, and it's not going to be easy. But if you are a super-talented engineer, your talents will be used, I think, to a greater degree than anywhere else. SpaceX is also that way.” Source: Tesla AI Day, September 2022
1:18

ELON: I ENSURE GREAT ENGINEERS CAN FLOURISH AT MY COMPANIES “I consider one of my core responsibilities in running companies to have an environment where great engineers can flourish. And I think in a lot of companies, maybe most companies, if somebody is a really talented, driven engineer, their talents are suppressed. At some of the companies, engineering talent is suppressed in a way that is maybe not obviously bad, but where it's just so comfortable, and you're paid so much money, but the output you actually have to produce is so low that it's like a honey trap. They don't necessarily seem like bad places for engineers, but you have to say, a good engineer went in and what did they get out? The output of that engineering talent seems very low. Tesla is not a honey trap. We're demanding. You're going to get a lot of shit done. And it's going to be really cool, and it's not going to be easy. But if you are a super-talented engineer, your talents will be used, I think, to a greater degree than anywhere else. SpaceX is also that way.” Source: Tesla AI Day, September 2022

Mario Nawfal

20,354,729 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

.David Deutsch on why the people in favor of regulating AI are wrong: “They look at problems and they think they’re insoluble because they haven’t been solved, and therefore they want to prevent the progress that is going to cause the problems. Now, generically, what that will do is it will make the progress happen in the wrong place. It will happen among people who do not obey the regulation, and those people are people who are alienated from the best culture, and they will then become a danger to the best culture. Now, I’m speaking in general terms about progress—progress in computing and so on—but I think this particular thing you’ve mentioned is actually not going to be that much of a danger. AGI (artificial general intelligence) will present a whole load of new problems which will have to be solved, no doubt with the help of AGI. But AI, the kind of thing we have now with ChatGPT and that kind of thing, which is amazingly and increasingly useful and is going to have unpredictable effects on society—most of them good—isn’t anything profound. It’s no different from having a calculator or a slide rule.”
1:41

.David Deutsch on why the people in favor of regulating AI are wrong: “They look at problems and they think they’re insoluble because they haven’t been solved, and therefore they want to prevent the progress that is going to cause the problems. Now, generically, what that will do is it will make the progress happen in the wrong place. It will happen among people who do not obey the regulation, and those people are people who are alienated from the best culture, and they will then become a danger to the best culture. Now, I’m speaking in general terms about progress—progress in computing and so on—but I think this particular thing you’ve mentioned is actually not going to be that much of a danger. AGI (artificial general intelligence) will present a whole load of new problems which will have to be solved, no doubt with the help of AGI. But AI, the kind of thing we have now with ChatGPT and that kind of thing, which is amazingly and increasingly useful and is going to have unpredictable effects on society—most of them good—isn’t anything profound. It’s no different from having a calculator or a slide rule.”

Arjun Khemani

30,132 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

.Anish Acharya says the future of AI isn’t one model to rule them all—and explains why platforms that integrate multiple models will benefit the most: "I think we're going to need and rely on all of the models." "It's sort of like if you have a team of people... if you have five people, they could all do a basic set of things pretty capably." "But then they all have their specializations. Maybe one of them is really good at closing a customer who doesn't want to sign the deal, and one of them is really good at culture and getting the best out of the team." "There are some areas in which they are going to build apps, and that will be a threat to app companies. But there are many areas in which app companies are advantaged. Cursor and Krea are great examples of this—products where you benefit from being multi-model." "When you actually use a creative tool, you don't want to just use Nano Banana, you want to have access to OpenAI, Nano Banana, Kling—all of them—Qwen, you name it. So using a single interface to access all the models is powerful." Anish Acharya on BILLIONS with Guillaume Moubeche
2:13

.Anish Acharya says the future of AI isn’t one model to rule them all—and explains why platforms that integrate multiple models will benefit the most: "I think we're going to need and rely on all of the models." "It's sort of like if you have a team of people... if you have five people, they could all do a basic set of things pretty capably." "But then they all have their specializations. Maybe one of them is really good at closing a customer who doesn't want to sign the deal, and one of them is really good at culture and getting the best out of the team." "There are some areas in which they are going to build apps, and that will be a threat to app companies. But there are many areas in which app companies are advantaged. Cursor and Krea are great examples of this—products where you benefit from being multi-model." "When you actually use a creative tool, you don't want to just use Nano Banana, you want to have access to OpenAI, Nano Banana, Kling—all of them—Qwen, you name it. So using a single interface to access all the models is powerful." Anish Acharya on BILLIONS with Guillaume Moubeche

a16z

33,251 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce

Q: What did President Xi say to you about Taiwan? And are you still going to approve the arms sale? TRUMP: So President Xi and I talked a lot about Taiwan. He thinks they cannot have anything to do with what they're doing. He's against very much what they're doing. I think we have a very good understanding. On Taiwan, he does not want to see a fight for independence.
1:24

Q: What did President Xi say to you about Taiwan? And are you still going to approve the arms sale? TRUMP: So President Xi and I talked a lot about Taiwan. He thinks they cannot have anything to do with what they're doing. He's against very much what they're doing. I think we have a very good understanding. On Taiwan, he does not want to see a fight for independence.

Aaron Rupar

49,041 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

'China is waiting for a 'green light' from Trump to attack Taiwan' – British journalist Matt Fry 'What does China really want from Trump, besides access to American markets? It wants America to keep its hands off Taiwan. And if the US steps back from Taiwan, it will be much easier for the Chinese to try to invade the island and take it over. However, this is a very difficult and costly operation, possibly even more complicated than the invasion of Ukraine, since Taiwan is an island with a high, hard-to-reach coastline, and the Taiwanese are very motivated to fight, just like the Ukrainians. And if Donald Trump, as part of a trade deal, hints or even gives China the green light that he can simply step aside because it doesn't matter to him, and the main thing is his power and influence in his hemisphere, then Taiwan will be in big trouble.' - SK
1:03

'China is waiting for a 'green light' from Trump to attack Taiwan' – British journalist Matt Fry 'What does China really want from Trump, besides access to American markets? It wants America to keep its hands off Taiwan. And if the US steps back from Taiwan, it will be much easier for the Chinese to try to invade the island and take it over. However, this is a very difficult and costly operation, possibly even more complicated than the invasion of Ukraine, since Taiwan is an island with a high, hard-to-reach coastline, and the Taiwanese are very motivated to fight, just like the Ukrainians. And if Donald Trump, as part of a trade deal, hints or even gives China the green light that he can simply step aside because it doesn't matter to him, and the main thing is his power and influence in his hemisphere, then Taiwan will be in big trouble.' - SK

Zlatti71

39,499 görüntüleme • 10 ay önce

Intel CEO on Terafab and Elon Musk: "Elon Musk is one of the best entrepreneur in this century. He & we share the same view. We both are going to learn a lot together. We are delighted to work on Terafab. He has a very good team that I work with weekly."
1:25

Intel CEO on Terafab and Elon Musk: "Elon Musk is one of the best entrepreneur in this century. He & we share the same view. We both are going to learn a lot together. We are delighted to work on Terafab. He has a very good team that I work with weekly."

DogeDesigner

81,349 görüntüleme • 21 gün önce

Chamath: Taiwan Loses Its Strategic Importance in 18 Months Chamath Palihapitiya: “ We're 18 months from Taiwan not being an important moment of conversation the way it is today. Why 18 months? Because we are at a point where we're probably 1-2 nanometers away from being able to do what we need Taiwan to strategically do for us. And so as we scale up our chip fabs, as we get more capacity, and interestingly, there are these orthogonal technologies being developed. I don't know if you guys saw, but Neuralink was showcasing a machine that is literally operating at the almost nanometer scale to do the brain operations for the implantation, all automatically. When you have the dexterity and the capability mechanically to make these things, the real reason then is a very different one than what it is today. Today, it's economic. And if you take that off the table, I think we'll have a very different attitude to Taiwan.”
0:45

Chamath: Taiwan Loses Its Strategic Importance in 18 Months Chamath Palihapitiya: “ We're 18 months from Taiwan not being an important moment of conversation the way it is today. Why 18 months? Because we are at a point where we're probably 1-2 nanometers away from being able to do what we need Taiwan to strategically do for us. And so as we scale up our chip fabs, as we get more capacity, and interestingly, there are these orthogonal technologies being developed. I don't know if you guys saw, but Neuralink was showcasing a machine that is literally operating at the almost nanometer scale to do the brain operations for the implantation, all automatically. When you have the dexterity and the capability mechanically to make these things, the real reason then is a very different one than what it is today. Today, it's economic. And if you take that off the table, I think we'll have a very different attitude to Taiwan.”

The All-In Podcast

1,855,138 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

Elon Musk: America is going bankrupt extremely quickly. We have to reduce the spending or this will not have a good ending. "America is going bankrupt extremely quickly. And everyone seems to be whistling past the graveyard on this one. The Defense Department budget is a very big budget, okay? It's a trillion dollars a year, DoD, Intel, a trillion dollars. And interest payments on the national debt just exceeded the Defense Department budget. They're over a trillion dollars a year, just in interest and rising. We're adding a trillion dollars to our debt, which our kids and grandkids are going to have to pay somehow, every three months, and then soon it's going to be every two months and then every month. And then, the only thing we'll be able to pay is interests. And it's just like a person at scale that has racked up too much credit card debt. This does not have a good ending. We have to reduce the spending." Source: The All-In Podcast The All-In Podcast, September 9, 2024
1:03

Elon Musk: America is going bankrupt extremely quickly. We have to reduce the spending or this will not have a good ending. "America is going bankrupt extremely quickly. And everyone seems to be whistling past the graveyard on this one. The Defense Department budget is a very big budget, okay? It's a trillion dollars a year, DoD, Intel, a trillion dollars. And interest payments on the national debt just exceeded the Defense Department budget. They're over a trillion dollars a year, just in interest and rising. We're adding a trillion dollars to our debt, which our kids and grandkids are going to have to pay somehow, every three months, and then soon it's going to be every two months and then every month. And then, the only thing we'll be able to pay is interests. And it's just like a person at scale that has racked up too much credit card debt. This does not have a good ending. We have to reduce the spending." Source: The All-In Podcast The All-In Podcast, September 9, 2024

ELON CLIPS

5,811,027 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce