Geoffrey Hinton is right. AI will replace knowledge work far sooner than most people are prepared for. The digital world scales instantly. The physical world does not. Most people are massively underestimating the speed of this shift. Which jobs do you think disappear first?

He’s right but it’s meaningless. The rate of progress is such that by the time anyone has started and completed training in any of those things the ai will have surpassed humans. We already have astrophysicists saying 90% of physics can now be done by ai, and it will soon be doing things beyond human comprehension. The rate of robotics development means in 4 years “plumbing” won’t be an obstacle for them. Far better advice, would be work out what brings you joy, do that. If you can make money off it, great, but in reality it’s likely not going to be your job, we will just have things we do for the joy of doing them. If you spend years training in something that doesn’t bring you joy in the hope of a job/career at the end, but never took the time within yourself to work out what you actually love to do, then it’ll be a very painful transition into a post ASI world.

Hinton is right, but most people don't know what to do. I previously compiled a "task breakdown method," a 3-step self-rescue method: 1. List 10 things you do every day. Mark which tasks are "repetitive" (dangerous) and which "require judgment and creativity" (safe). 2. Delegate dangerous tasks to AI Instead of waiting to be replaced, we proactively use AI to improve efficiency and free up time to do higher-value things. 3. Extract your methodology Transform your experience into Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) and leverage them with AI to amplify their impact (see the case of the unemployed customer service representative who transitioned to a product manager). The first to disappear are not specific positions, but those who "only know how to complete tasks but not how to extract methods."

Routine goes first.

He is wrong. The man is charlatan.

How is he a charlatan?

Again, LLM's are brute force statistically systems. It's nothing new. Just the ridiculous scale, which is inefficient, and the massive IP theft.

@VraserX Well then it will statistically brute force your job away silly man. Observable emergent capabilities from a nonlinear system not yet understood by our brightest scientists won't evaporate bcus some nonse chose to oversimplify to a contextually isolated, featureless object

@VraserX You're babbling utter nonsense.

@VraserX Your response reveals your low IQ lmao. As you were.

@VraserX Actually, you fall into that category.

Hinton isn't right on everything but I follow him intently. His tone, willingness to explain and calmness steadies a boat on rough waters. I think he is right about speed though and consciousness though.

I remember back in 2003, (23 years ago now?!?), Marshall Brain wrote "Manna," and he pointed out that it was managers that were going to be replaced first. The body will be replaced last. Employees would go to work, and a headset would just tell you what to do, in moment by moment detail.

When my office job is replaced I will then worry about it No one knows timelines What's the point in even discussing it

data people like me will hit the slag heap very soon

Digital admin, basic paralegal, entry-level copywriting? Already slipping backstage. I’m betting creativity blended with tech will always have a front row seat.

@VraserX, I believe roles heavily reliant on routine tasks may be the first affected. Adapting to this shift will be crucial for many in the workforce.

I pray it roots out destructive corruption first 🙏🙏🙏

Sorry, that’s the wrong question.😉 The right one is: Which jobs will be so simplified and devalued by AI that no one will be willing to pay good or even adequate wages for them?😂

Any job where the modality is keyboard, screen & mouse. It will be slow at first as small routine tasks are automated then there will be a Cambrian Explosion as trust in the process builds.

Translation - welcome to the hustle economy everyone. May the odds be ever in your favor.

I don't listen to people who struggle to setup and turn on a computer about the future of tech

It’s not roles, it’s task density. Jobs with high % of automatable tasks collapse from the inside

Policy must lead, not lag. Smart governance integrates AI to create opportunity, not just displace workers.

Geoffrey Hinton keeps selling sci‑fi as science. Looks like he watched a bit too much Terminator in his youth.

Which jobs disappeared in last 4 years? That is the amount of time that we are listening all those prophecies.

IMO the first stage would be diminishing roles, where people have to babysit Agent as HITL in the bargain getting diminished returns as pay. Full replacements will take time, only when the HITL becomes irrelevant.

I’m pretty sure God hits the reset button every time a species reaches ASI in the physical universe. Archeology has left many clues to indicate this is the case on earth.

Software development.

If your job can be templated-copywriting, entry-level analyst, data entry-it's gg. This shift's not waiting for anyone; time to upskill or get left behind.

Front desk + back office & a lot of logistic roles are gone I can tell you that.

Este senhor delira. Sua IA Estatistica é cheia de limitações e sem supervisão humana provocará verdadeiros desastres.

The "digital world" IS physical. Computation requires massive amounts of energy, raw materials, engineering, etc. It's not fairies and unicorns...

He is lying sack of shit!

A este hombre solo le queda EGO

1/ An oligopoly squared fitting in a handshake, obeying nothing but capital maximization holds the three locks of AI: - compute, - data, - and political influence. ⤵️

Welcome to the future, where white-collar jobs start disappearing before blue-collar ones because bits are easier to automate than atoms.

Human teachers, tutors, administrators

AI's reshaping jobs fast! Admin and data roles might be the first to change. What do you think comes next?

@aliamjadrizvi He's just one "expert" among many, and they don't all think what he thinks. He's not "the" godfather of AI, he's just one guy involved in it.

ignorance is bliss until you get hit by a loaded truck

@grok answer this