Загрузка видео...

Не удалось загрузить видео

Возникла проблема при загрузке этого видео. Это может быть связано с временными проблемами сети или видео может быть недоступно.

На главную

🚨🇺🇸🇷🇺 Global leaders are increasingly finding themselves trapped in dangerous escalation cycles with no clear off-ramps in sight. History shows leaders who face strategic failures on the ground frequently resort to punishment attacks or leadership decapitation attempts simply because they have no better options left. Professor Robert Pape warns... show more

Mario Nawfal

3,503,529 subscribers

34,265 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад •via X (Twitter)

Новости и политика

Anya Rossi• Live Now

Private livecam show

Комментарии: 0

Нет доступных комментариев

Здесь появятся комментарии из оригинального поста

Похожие видео

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Washington is stumbling headfirst into an orchestrated geopolitical trap in the Middle East. Geopolitical analyst Robert Pape warns that while the White House uses social media to blast "happy talk" about an imminent peace deal, Tehran is systematically securing actual escalation dominance on the ground. Following a string of tight regional operations, Professor Pape notes that global observers are starting to find Iran's strategic maneuvers far more credible than any empty rhetoric coming from the Trump administration. Robert A. Pape

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Washington is stumbling headfirst into an orchestrated geopolitical trap in the Middle East. Geopolitical analyst Robert Pape warns that while the White House uses social media to blast "happy talk" about an imminent peace deal, Tehran is systematically securing actual escalation dominance on the ground. Following a string of tight regional operations, Professor Pape notes that global observers are starting to find Iran's strategic maneuvers far more credible than any empty rhetoric coming from the Trump administration. Robert A. Pape

Mario Nawfal

65,832 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇱 Israel is rapidly approaching a dangerous "escalation trap" where it may soon decide to launch major military operations entirely without American approval. Professor Robert Pape pointed out that nearly half of the Israeli public is now allegedly onboard with the nation going solo in its foreign policy initiatives. The professor warns that domestic political pressures are making rogue Israeli strikes highly likely. Robert A. Pape

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇱 Israel is rapidly approaching a dangerous "escalation trap" where it may soon decide to launch major military operations entirely without American approval. Professor Robert Pape pointed out that nearly half of the Israeli public is now allegedly onboard with the nation going solo in its foreign policy initiatives. The professor warns that domestic political pressures are making rogue Israeli strikes highly likely. Robert A. Pape

Mario Nawfal

60,525 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Escalation might be the only card left on the table as the U.S. runs out of options in the Middle East. Professor Robert Pape argues that chaos in Lebanon is handing the Trump administration consecutive political losses that make them look incredibly weak. He suggested the pressure to avoid looking like an embarrassment on the world stage could trigger another massive military escalation in the coming months. Robert A. Pape

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Escalation might be the only card left on the table as the U.S. runs out of options in the Middle East. Professor Robert Pape argues that chaos in Lebanon is handing the Trump administration consecutive political losses that make them look incredibly weak. He suggested the pressure to avoid looking like an embarrassment on the world stage could trigger another massive military escalation in the coming months. Robert A. Pape

Mario Nawfal

55,961 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The current U.S.-Iran negotiations represent a massive strategic shift. Professor Robert Pape argued that despite Western media spin, Iran is actually in the driver's seat and setting the terms while the Trump administration scrambles to adjust. He suggested the escalation trap the world is facing signals a permanent new era of global energy and economic instability, rather than a temporary hurdle. "We are in an era of instability, not a moment of instability." Robert A. Pape

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The current U.S.-Iran negotiations represent a massive strategic shift. Professor Robert Pape argued that despite Western media spin, Iran is actually in the driver's seat and setting the terms while the Trump administration scrambles to adjust. He suggested the escalation trap the world is facing signals a permanent new era of global energy and economic instability, rather than a temporary hurdle. "We are in an era of instability, not a moment of instability." Robert A. Pape

Mario Nawfal

58,085 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

🚨🇮🇱🇱🇧 Is Israel ready to launch a full-scale military campaign into Lebanon even if it means losing critical backing from Washington? Professor Robert Pape highlights polling showing up to 80% of the Israeli public allegedly supporting a maximum-pressure escalation against Hezbollah. Prof. Robert suggested this is the result of the political left virtually vanishing since October 7th in Israel, providing a massive domestic mandate for hawkish leaders looking to expand the war. Robert A. Pape

🚨🇮🇱🇱🇧 Is Israel ready to launch a full-scale military campaign into Lebanon even if it means losing critical backing from Washington? Professor Robert Pape highlights polling showing up to 80% of the Israeli public allegedly supporting a maximum-pressure escalation against Hezbollah. Prof. Robert suggested this is the result of the political left virtually vanishing since October 7th in Israel, providing a massive domestic mandate for hawkish leaders looking to expand the war. Robert A. Pape

Mario Nawfal

51,442 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

🚨🇷🇺🇨🇳 The rapidly evolving economic and military alliance between Russia and China is completely reshaping global logistics. Massive trade deals settled entirely in local currencies, and joint nuclear drills signal that a new multi-polar order is already here. Professor Robert Pape explains that foreign policy blunders usually happen because Western leaders fundamentally misjudge how domestic politics will play out on the global stage, allowing figures like Xi and Putin to outmaneuver them. Robert A. Pape

🚨🇷🇺🇨🇳 The rapidly evolving economic and military alliance between Russia and China is completely reshaping global logistics. Massive trade deals settled entirely in local currencies, and joint nuclear drills signal that a new multi-polar order is already here. Professor Robert Pape explains that foreign policy blunders usually happen because Western leaders fundamentally misjudge how domestic politics will play out on the global stage, allowing figures like Xi and Putin to outmaneuver them. Robert A. Pape

Mario Nawfal

40,059 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

$🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 HORIZONTAL ESCALATION: THE MILLION-MAN ARMY Iran has been preparing for this day since 1979, and Robert Pape explains why "homegrown" regime change is failing. Separatist groups are no match for a million-man army that knows the rugged, mountainous terrain of its own homeland. The recent strikes in Azerbaijan were no accident; they were warning shots in a well-designed campaign to fracture the coalition. Robert A. Pape$

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 HORIZONTAL ESCALATION: THE MILLION-MAN ARMY Iran has been preparing for this day since 1979, and Robert Pape explains why "homegrown" regime change is failing. Separatist groups are no match for a million-man army that knows the rugged, mountainous terrain of its own homeland. The recent strikes in Azerbaijan were no accident; they were warning shots in a well-designed campaign to fracture the coalition. Robert A. Pape

Mario Nawfal

55,532 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Are we on the verge of a massive regional war in the Middle East, or are we trapped in a slow-burning fuse? Professor Robert Pape argues that while immediate risks remain moderate over the summer, the real danger spikes by January as prolonged instability weakens Gulf governments. Much like the catastrophic trajectory of the Iran-Iraq War, history shows that states rarely find an easy exit from the compounding escalation traps that the world is seeing. "18 months from now it's 90% likely that Iran will test nuclear weapons." Robert A. Pape

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Are we on the verge of a massive regional war in the Middle East, or are we trapped in a slow-burning fuse? Professor Robert Pape argues that while immediate risks remain moderate over the summer, the real danger spikes by January as prolonged instability weakens Gulf governments. Much like the catastrophic trajectory of the Iran-Iraq War, history shows that states rarely find an easy exit from the compounding escalation traps that the world is seeing. "18 months from now it's 90% likely that Iran will test nuclear weapons." Robert A. Pape

Mario Nawfal

60,176 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 WAR BY YEAR’S END: IRAN’S GROWING GRIP By the end of the year, Robert Pape predicts that the strategic playing field will likely tilt even further in Tehran’s favor. History shows the probability of a "mechanistic" regime change is only about 5% which is a gamble the U.S. can't afford to rely on. With no good military option to change the current trajectory, Iran is already looking to China and Russia to cement their influence. Robert A. Pape

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 WAR BY YEAR’S END: IRAN’S GROWING GRIP By the end of the year, Robert Pape predicts that the strategic playing field will likely tilt even further in Tehran’s favor. History shows the probability of a "mechanistic" regime change is only about 5% which is a gamble the U.S. can't afford to rely on. With no good military option to change the current trajectory, Iran is already looking to China and Russia to cement their influence. Robert A. Pape

Mario Nawfal

103,074 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

🚨🇺🇸🇨🇳 THE ENERGY RACE: CHINA, AI, AND THE STRAIT Control over the Strait of Hormuz is about much more than uranium; Robert Pape identifies it as the center of the global AI race. The U.S. and China are in a consequential battle for energy dominance, and this chokepoint is the most powerful lever available. While leaders may like "clobbering" opponents, that strategy fails when the balloon bursts and there is no easy way out. Robert A. Pape

🚨🇺🇸🇨🇳 THE ENERGY RACE: CHINA, AI, AND THE STRAIT Control over the Strait of Hormuz is about much more than uranium; Robert Pape identifies it as the center of the global AI race. The U.S. and China are in a consequential battle for energy dominance, and this chokepoint is the most powerful lever available. While leaders may like "clobbering" opponents, that strategy fails when the balloon bursts and there is no easy way out. Robert A. Pape

Mario Nawfal

58,081 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

The Iran war is sliding toward a point of no return. 🚨 Prof. Robert Pape (Robert A. Pape) warns that current U.S. strategy is drifting towards what he calls the "escalation trap." If Trump falls into this trap of his own making, he risks a catastrophic failure because seeking the millitarily unattainable political objective of regime change solely though the air “leads directly to a ground conflict that begins limited and then expands.” We are fast approaching “stage three: limited territorial control, which never stays limited.” This was President LBJ's fatal miscalculation in the early stages of the Vietnam War, and Trump is careening towards the same mistake in Iran. While initial strikes caused much damage and death in Iran, it did not produce the hoped for politcal outcome (unconditional surrender). The next phase could trigger an uncontrollable escalation. This is “the true red line in this escalation cycle” that must not be crossed if we are to avoid a total Middle East conflict spiral. 👇 WATCH the full analysis here: 👉 #IranWar #USStrategy #MiddleEastConflict #RobertPape #NationalSecurity #WarRoom #Geopolitics #ForeignPolicy #BreakingNews #DanielDavisDeepDive #StraitOfHormuz #Escalation

The Iran war is sliding toward a point of no return. 🚨 Prof. Robert Pape (Robert A. Pape) warns that current U.S. strategy is drifting towards what he calls the "escalation trap." If Trump falls into this trap of his own making, he risks a catastrophic failure because seeking the millitarily unattainable political objective of regime change solely though the air “leads directly to a ground conflict that begins limited and then expands.” We are fast approaching “stage three: limited territorial control, which never stays limited.” This was President LBJ's fatal miscalculation in the early stages of the Vietnam War, and Trump is careening towards the same mistake in Iran. While initial strikes caused much damage and death in Iran, it did not produce the hoped for politcal outcome (unconditional surrender). The next phase could trigger an uncontrollable escalation. This is “the true red line in this escalation cycle” that must not be crossed if we are to avoid a total Middle East conflict spiral. 👇 WATCH the full analysis here: 👉 #IranWar #USStrategy #MiddleEastConflict #RobertPape #NationalSecurity #WarRoom #Geopolitics #ForeignPolicy #BreakingNews #DanielDavisDeepDive #StraitOfHormuz #Escalation

Daniel Davis Deep Dive

36,354 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Prof. Robert Pape says Trump's repeated Iran walk-backs aren't signs of peace. They show that Washington is out of moves. Every time Trump pulls back from striking Iran, markets breathe a sigh of relief and headlines declare tensions are easing. Prof. Robert Pape says that's the wrong conclusion. His view is that the U.S. is trapped between two options it doesn't want. Either accept Iran's growing leverage over the Strait of Hormuz, or escalate into a conflict with no clear endgame. Neither is politically attractive. So Washington hesitates. Pape argues the real risk is a slow grind of escalation, where rising oil prices, retaliation, economic pressure, and domestic politics gradually leave Trump with fewer and fewer alternatives. His broader warning is even more significant: this is more than just a crisis over Iran. It's a sign that the post-1991 unipolar era is fading, while Iran continues expanding its regional influence. His takeaway is simple: don't confuse hesitation with peace. Sometimes paralysis is just conflict waiting for its next trigger. Robert A. Pape

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Prof. Robert Pape says Trump's repeated Iran walk-backs aren't signs of peace. They show that Washington is out of moves. Every time Trump pulls back from striking Iran, markets breathe a sigh of relief and headlines declare tensions are easing. Prof. Robert Pape says that's the wrong conclusion. His view is that the U.S. is trapped between two options it doesn't want. Either accept Iran's growing leverage over the Strait of Hormuz, or escalate into a conflict with no clear endgame. Neither is politically attractive. So Washington hesitates. Pape argues the real risk is a slow grind of escalation, where rising oil prices, retaliation, economic pressure, and domestic politics gradually leave Trump with fewer and fewer alternatives. His broader warning is even more significant: this is more than just a crisis over Iran. It's a sign that the post-1991 unipolar era is fading, while Iran continues expanding its regional influence. His takeaway is simple: don't confuse hesitation with peace. Sometimes paralysis is just conflict waiting for its next trigger. Robert A. Pape

Mario Nawfal

294,544 просмотров • 5 дней назад

⭕️ Robert Pape vs. the “Joe Kent Plan”: Is There a Third Way Out of the Iran Escalation Trap? 🔸Joe Kent, a former senior Trump administration official who resigned in protest over the Iran war, has proposed a third path absent a deal with Iran— walk away from active military escalation, keep sanctions in place, and let regional powers negotiate bilateral deals over Hormuz passage with Iran. 🔸Professor Robert Pape, a political scientist at the University of Chicago and author of the Escalation Trap Substack, says Kent’s plan doesn’t stop Iran from becoming the fourth center of world power, though it may slow it down slightly. ▪️“There’s no actual way to stop Iran from exerting more power… Donald Trump has doomed us to a trap,” Pape told Breaking Points. ▪️On the economy, Professor Pape says Kent’s plan doesn’t necessarily reopen the Strait for Gulf oil exporters — meaning the global economic damage continues regardless. ▪️His conclusion is that Kent is choosing a fork in the road, but is not escaping the trap Trump built for the United States by entering “this catastrophic disaster, [which] will probably go down certainly the worst since Vietnam.” ▪️“Vietnam did not wreck the world’s economy. The 2003 Iraq war did not wreck the world’s economy… This is all on his back,” the Professor said. “He’s given Iran actual knowledge they did not have before — they can beat America. Not just survive. They can actually beat America.”

⭕️ Robert Pape vs. the “Joe Kent Plan”: Is There a Third Way Out of the Iran Escalation Trap? 🔸Joe Kent, a former senior Trump administration official who resigned in protest over the Iran war, has proposed a third path absent a deal with Iran— walk away from active military escalation, keep sanctions in place, and let regional powers negotiate bilateral deals over Hormuz passage with Iran. 🔸Professor Robert Pape, a political scientist at the University of Chicago and author of the Escalation Trap Substack, says Kent’s plan doesn’t stop Iran from becoming the fourth center of world power, though it may slow it down slightly. ▪️“There’s no actual way to stop Iran from exerting more power… Donald Trump has doomed us to a trap,” Pape told Breaking Points. ▪️On the economy, Professor Pape says Kent’s plan doesn’t necessarily reopen the Strait for Gulf oil exporters — meaning the global economic damage continues regardless. ▪️His conclusion is that Kent is choosing a fork in the road, but is not escaping the trap Trump built for the United States by entering “this catastrophic disaster, [which] will probably go down certainly the worst since Vietnam.” ▪️“Vietnam did not wreck the world’s economy. The 2003 Iraq war did not wreck the world’s economy… This is all on his back,” the Professor said. “He’s given Iran actual knowledge they did not have before — they can beat America. Not just survive. They can actually beat America.”

Drop Site

336,649 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump may still be far away from showing real signs he is willing to make the concessions needed to end the war. While headlines blast that the U.S. naval blockade on Iran is lifting, Professor Robert Pape warns that Trump’s hidden conditions are essentially demanding complete Iranian capitulation. Professor Pape argued that by demanding zero shipping tolls and the right to place U.S. personnel on the ground to destroy nuclear material, Washington is publicly proposing terms Tehran has absolutely no intention of swallowing. "This is like saying I want to buy your house and I also want you to put on a new roof and a brand new garage." Robert A. Pape

Mario Nawfal

40,340 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

🚨🇺🇦 ON THE GROUND: UKRAINE – “IS PUTIN HOLDING THE WORLD HOSTAGE?” Defense Tech investor Deborah Fairlamb warns Putin’s nuclear threats could corner the West into a no-win negotiation. Deborah Fairlamb: “U.S. and China have made it clear to Putin that nuclear escalation is not going to be perceived well. But If Putin can hold out the threat of dropping a nuclear bomb or planting one, that at some point becomes blackmail of the West.” Source: On the Ground with 🇺🇸 ERIC BOLLING 🇺🇸 – only on 𝕏.

🚨🇺🇦 ON THE GROUND: UKRAINE – “IS PUTIN HOLDING THE WORLD HOSTAGE?” Defense Tech investor Deborah Fairlamb warns Putin’s nuclear threats could corner the West into a no-win negotiation. Deborah Fairlamb: “U.S. and China have made it clear to Putin that nuclear escalation is not going to be perceived well. But If Putin can hold out the threat of dropping a nuclear bomb or planting one, that at some point becomes blackmail of the West.” Source: On the Ground with 🇺🇸 ERIC BOLLING 🇺🇸 – only on 𝕏.

Mario Nawfal

62,214 просмотров • 11 месяцев назад

Avdiivka is on the verge of falling under the control of russian forces due to a shortage of ammunition in Ukrainian forces, the White House said NO. Avdiivka is on the verge of falling under the control of the russian armed forces because the West, with its vast GDP and military superiority, is led by incompetent politicians who have proven in 23 months that they have zero strategic foresight. Politicians who in 23 months have not understood that with Putin de-escalation leads to more and more escalation. Politicians who have invented more and more red lines in 23 months because they are afraid to make critical decisions. #avdiivka

Avdiivka is on the verge of falling under the control of russian forces due to a shortage of ammunition in Ukrainian forces, the White House said NO. Avdiivka is on the verge of falling under the control of the russian armed forces because the West, with its vast GDP and military superiority, is led by incompetent politicians who have proven in 23 months that they have zero strategic foresight. Politicians who in 23 months have not understood that with Putin de-escalation leads to more and more escalation. Politicians who have invented more and more red lines in 23 months because they are afraid to make critical decisions. #avdiivka

Jürgen Nauditt 🇩🇪🇺🇦

320,636 просмотров • 2 лет назад

⭕️ University of Chicago Political Scientist Robert Pape: “Iran Is Beating America… Trump Is A Wounded Animal” Professor Robert Pape, one of the country’s leading scholars on military escalation, appeared on Breaking Points to assess the state of the war. Here’s what he said: 🔹 On who’s in control: “America’s not winning. Trump is not in control. Iran has cards to play. They are more in control as each day passes. And since the first hour of the bombing, America has been less in control and has less cards to play.” 🔹 On why talks keep failing: Pape argues the ceasefire breakdown is not a miscommunication problem — it’s a zero-sum problem. Iran cannot both control and not control the Strait of Hormuz. It cannot both have enriched uranium and not have it. “One side has to give up essentially. And what you’re seeing is both sides rather than give up prefer to escalate.” 🔹 On what Iran wants: Pape believes Iran has three goals — control of the Strait, nuclear weapons within roughly a year or two, and torpedoing Trump’s presidency. He claims Iran’s strategy is to string this out at least until November — keeping the economic pressure on and the Strait closed long enough to make Trump’s presidency unrecoverable. 🔹 On Iran denying Trump a way out: Pape argues Trump is desperately seeking a symbolic concession from Iran — any gesture that lets him declare victory and exit. Iran isn’t giving it to him. Instead, every time Trump signals a win, Iran responds with a fresh move like seizing ships, parading missiles. Pape argues this is deliberate: Iran knows that every U.S. victory claim it undercuts pushes Trump further into a trap, and over time gives Tehran greater leverage in negotiations and in the region. 🔹 On what Iran learned: “They learned something in the last eight weeks they did not know before — which is they can beat America. Not just survive. They can actually beat America. And they’re not just beating Donald Trump. Nobody in America is coming up with a brilliant plan.” 🔹 On the ship seizures today: Professor Pape predicted “demonstration attacks” on his Substack hours before Iran seized the vessels Wednesday morning. “What they’re doing is moving up a standard rung of escalation. This is not going to be over anytime soon.“ Ryan Grim | Emily Jashinsky | Robert A. Pape

⭕️ University of Chicago Political Scientist Robert Pape: “Iran Is Beating America… Trump Is A Wounded Animal” Professor Robert Pape, one of the country’s leading scholars on military escalation, appeared on Breaking Points to assess the state of the war. Here’s what he said: 🔹 On who’s in control: “America’s not winning. Trump is not in control. Iran has cards to play. They are more in control as each day passes. And since the first hour of the bombing, America has been less in control and has less cards to play.” 🔹 On why talks keep failing: Pape argues the ceasefire breakdown is not a miscommunication problem — it’s a zero-sum problem. Iran cannot both control and not control the Strait of Hormuz. It cannot both have enriched uranium and not have it. “One side has to give up essentially. And what you’re seeing is both sides rather than give up prefer to escalate.” 🔹 On what Iran wants: Pape believes Iran has three goals — control of the Strait, nuclear weapons within roughly a year or two, and torpedoing Trump’s presidency. He claims Iran’s strategy is to string this out at least until November — keeping the economic pressure on and the Strait closed long enough to make Trump’s presidency unrecoverable. 🔹 On Iran denying Trump a way out: Pape argues Trump is desperately seeking a symbolic concession from Iran — any gesture that lets him declare victory and exit. Iran isn’t giving it to him. Instead, every time Trump signals a win, Iran responds with a fresh move like seizing ships, parading missiles. Pape argues this is deliberate: Iran knows that every U.S. victory claim it undercuts pushes Trump further into a trap, and over time gives Tehran greater leverage in negotiations and in the region. 🔹 On what Iran learned: “They learned something in the last eight weeks they did not know before — which is they can beat America. Not just survive. They can actually beat America. And they’re not just beating Donald Trump. Nobody in America is coming up with a brilliant plan.” 🔹 On the ship seizures today: Professor Pape predicted “demonstration attacks” on his Substack hours before Iran seized the vessels Wednesday morning. “What they’re doing is moving up a standard rung of escalation. This is not going to be over anytime soon.“ Ryan Grim | Emily Jashinsky | Robert A. Pape

Drop Site

42,990 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

Professor Robert Pape says Trump has lost control of the Iran war and is now being dragged toward something almost nobody expected: U.S. troops seizing Iranian territory along the Strait of Hormuz. He thinks the Battle of Hormuz has begun, and his argument is that Trump is no longer choosing whether to escalate; the war itself is beginning to make those choices for him. For months, Prof. Pape has warned about what he calls the "escalation trap." America bombs Iran, they refuse to surrender, Washington increases the pressure, the bombing creates more anger and nationalism inside Iran, they retaliate, and America escalates again. Prof. Pape thinks America may be preparing for stage three of the escalation trap: Ground operations. Not an invasion of Tehran, but a limited seizure of strategic Iranian territory along the Strait of Hormuz to physically weaken Tehran's ability to control shipping. He says Iranian nationalism is already exploding after the killing of the Supreme Leader, members of his family, senior officials, and thousands of Iranians. Calls for revenge are growing that could inspire attacks against Americans around the world. Then imagine one of those attacks succeeds. Americans are killed, U.S. nationalism surges, and suddenly walking away from Iran isn't seen as ending a stupid war; it's seen as dishonouring dead Americans. That's why he doesn't think Trump can simply wake up tomorrow and decide he's had enough. He faces a political crisis if his own base decides Iran humiliated him. Trump may think he's escalating to reverse a defeat, but Prof. Pape thinks every escalation is removing another exit. And America may now be moving toward putting troops on Iranian soil in a war that neither Trump nor Iran will soon have the political power to stop. Robert A. Pape

Professor Robert Pape says Trump has lost control of the Iran war and is now being dragged toward something almost nobody expected: U.S. troops seizing Iranian territory along the Strait of Hormuz. He thinks the Battle of Hormuz has begun, and his argument is that Trump is no longer choosing whether to escalate; the war itself is beginning to make those choices for him. For months, Prof. Pape has warned about what he calls the "escalation trap." America bombs Iran, they refuse to surrender, Washington increases the pressure, the bombing creates more anger and nationalism inside Iran, they retaliate, and America escalates again. Prof. Pape thinks America may be preparing for stage three of the escalation trap: Ground operations. Not an invasion of Tehran, but a limited seizure of strategic Iranian territory along the Strait of Hormuz to physically weaken Tehran's ability to control shipping. He says Iranian nationalism is already exploding after the killing of the Supreme Leader, members of his family, senior officials, and thousands of Iranians. Calls for revenge are growing that could inspire attacks against Americans around the world. Then imagine one of those attacks succeeds. Americans are killed, U.S. nationalism surges, and suddenly walking away from Iran isn't seen as ending a stupid war; it's seen as dishonouring dead Americans. That's why he doesn't think Trump can simply wake up tomorrow and decide he's had enough. He faces a political crisis if his own base decides Iran humiliated him. Trump may think he's escalating to reverse a defeat, but Prof. Pape thinks every escalation is removing another exit. And America may now be moving toward putting troops on Iranian soil in a war that neither Trump nor Iran will soon have the political power to stop. Robert A. Pape

Mario Nawfal

469,588 просмотров • 26 дней назад

🚨🇺🇸 🇷🇺 Russia has sent its harshest warning yet: any U.S. ground operation on Iranian territory is "entirely unacceptable." In a 90-minute call with Trump, Putin made it clear that a renewed attack would have catastrophic global consequences. Ex-CIA Larry Johnson explained why America's missile supply problem might put the U.S. on the losing side of escalation.

🚨🇺🇸 🇷🇺 Russia has sent its harshest warning yet: any U.S. ground operation on Iranian territory is "entirely unacceptable." In a 90-minute call with Trump, Putin made it clear that a renewed attack would have catastrophic global consequences. Ex-CIA Larry Johnson explained why America's missile supply problem might put the U.S. on the losing side of escalation.

Mario Nawfal

57,061 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

Professor Robert Pape argues Trump arrives in China looking weak, dragging with him a “strategic defeat.” He says the rest of the world is noticing too — pointing to Iranian negotiators brushing off Trump’s outreach efforts. “Trump is trying to send Kushner and Witkoff to Pakistan to meet with them, and the Iranian negotiators said: Go ahead, land in Islamabad. We’re going to Russia.” “Think how insulting that is.” Watch the full interview on the Sanchez Effect.

Professor Robert Pape argues Trump arrives in China looking weak, dragging with him a “strategic defeat.” He says the rest of the world is noticing too — pointing to Iranian negotiators brushing off Trump’s outreach efforts. “Trump is trying to send Kushner and Witkoff to Pakistan to meet with them, and the Iranian negotiators said: Go ahead, land in Islamabad. We’re going to Russia.” “Think how insulting that is.” Watch the full interview on the Sanchez Effect.

Rick Sanchez

91,330 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад