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31,212 次观看 • 6 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

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Ray Dalio warns of "something worse than recession" and points to 5 forces converging right now: The billionaire investor isn't worried about a typical downturn. He's mapping something bigger. "There's a financial problem. There's an imbalance problem," Dalio explains. "There are basically five big forces through history that drive everything." Force #1: The debt cycle "First, there's the money, credit, debt, economic cycle in which there's a building up of debt in a cyclical way that becomes too large and we're going to have problems. We're going to have a government debt problem." In Dalio's framing, this is what's changing our monetary order. Force #2: Internal conflict "The second big force through time is the internal conflict force. The left and the right. Differences in wealth and values causing a conflict that we're seeing it changing our political order." This is what's changing our political order internally. Force #3: The great world order "How countries deal with each other. When there's a rising power challenging existing power." Dalio sees a major shift underway: "Now we are going from multilateralism which is largely an American world order type of thing to a unilateral world order in which there's great conflict." Force #4: Acts of nature "Droughts, floods, and pandemics." The historical wildcard that compounds every other pressure. Force #5: Technology "Technology changing and how they are coming together are the main forces behind this." Dalio's core warning is about convergence. No single force is the whole story: "There can't be imbalances anymore in that environment."

Big Brain Investing

29,120 次观看 • 2 个月前