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Google DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis on how big AGI really is: "I sometimes quantify the coming of AGI as 10 times the industrial revolution at 10 times the speed, unfolding over a decade instead of a century. Literally today, things are a bit overhyped in AI. There couldn't be...

111,314 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад •via X (Twitter)

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Demis Hassabis just put a number on what’s coming. It’s the most important number nobody is talking about. Hassabis: “I think it’s going to be something like 10 times the impact of the Industrial Revolution, but happening at 10 times the speed.” Read that twice. Not ten times the impact. Not ten times the speed. Both. Simultaneously. The Industrial Revolution rewired every aspect of human civilization. How we work. Where we live. How economies organize. How societies structure themselves. It took a hundred years to fully unfold. Hassabis is describing ten times that disruption compressed into a decade. Hassabis: “Probably something more like the advent of fire or electricity.” Not the internet. Not the smartphone. Fire. Electricity. The discoveries that didn’t just change how humans lived but what humans could become. That’s the category he’s placing AGI in. Hassabis: “I think it’s going to be one of the most momentous periods in human history.” The most dangerous variable isn’t the technology. It’s the velocity. Every previous civilizational shift gave society time to adapt. Generations to absorb the disruption. Decades to build new institutions, new economic models, new social contracts around the new reality. AGI gives us a decade. The jobs that disappear won’t wait for policy. The economic models that collapse won’t wait for replacements. The power structures that shift won’t wait for democratic consensus. Hassabis: “Really this is an enormous amount of change is gonna come. It’s still to be written how we can make that beneficial for the whole world.” That last sentence is the one that keeps people like Hassabis awake at night. Not whether AGI arrives. Not whether it’s powerful. Whether a decade is enough time to get it right. The survivors of this window won’t be the ones who predicted it most accurately. They’ll be the ones who moved while everyone else was still processing what just happened. By the time most people realize the world changed, the decade is half over. And the infrastructure determining everything is already built and owned by whoever moved first. A century of change. Ten years to live through it. That clock is already running.

Dustin

32,201 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад