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Google just admitted it can't build data centers fast enough, so it's planning on baking its AI model directly into the chip instead (Save this). Google's new Frozen v2 chip permanently embeds parts of Gemini's architecture into the silicon itself, cutting down on the calculations and data movement needed... to answer a query. Engineers estimate it could process 6 to 10 times more tokens per unit of power than Google's current TPUs. The real story is why Google is building this in the first place because Frozen v2 is meant to ease a severe internal compute crunch that's caused friction between teams at Google. It reportedly pushed Google Cloud to turn away outside business because it simply doesn't have enough spare capacity to go around. If Google, one of the largest chipmakers in the world, is short enough on compute to turn away paying Cloud customers, that's confirmation this shortage isn't a scaling problem unique to smaller players, it's systemic across the entire industry. This ties into a much bigger power struggle happening right now. More AI companies are trying to cut their reliance on Nvidia by building their own chips. OpenAI rolled out a custom chip called Jalapeno alongside Broadcom last month and Anthropic is now partnering with Samsung on something similar. The reasoning is pretty simple, Nvidia effectively acts as landlord for every hyperscaler out there, and the rent isn't cheap. Nvidia hardware can account for anywhere from 20% to 60% of total AI infrastructure spend, and once a company is tied into its ecosystem, every hardware refresh forces another costly one. That's exactly why Google built TPUs and Amazon built Trainium, both trying to protect their own margins for shareholders. Bullish on Marvell + Broadcom who makes these custom chips and follow me Melvin for more infrastructure plays and check out the link below for more!show more

Melvin

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63,457 views • 16 days ago •via X (Twitter)

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Google just launched a direct attack on Nvidia's most valuable asset. Not their chips. Their SOFTWARE. And if this works, Nvidia's $4 trillion empire collapses. Here's what just leaked: Google is building "TorchTPU" - a secret project that makes PyTorch seamlessly run on Google's TPU chips instead of Nvidia GPUs. Why does this matter? PyTorch is the MOST USED AI framework on Earth. Every AI developer uses it. And PyTorch was built around Nvidia's CUDA software. Wall Street analysts call CUDA "Nvidia's strongest defensive wall." It's the reason companies can't easily switch away from Nvidia even when alternatives exist. You don't just buy Nvidia chips. You buy into their entire ecosystem. Switching costs MILLIONS in engineering work. Months of rewrites. Performance drops. So companies stay locked in. Even when Nvidia raises prices. Even when supply runs short. That's not a hardware moat. That's a SOFTWARE prison. And Google just found the escape route. Here's the problem Nvidia created for itself: Google's TPU chips are actually GOOD. Competitive performance. Better availability. Lower cost. But developers won't use them because Google's chips run JAX (Google's internal framework), not PyTorch. That means if you want to use Google TPUs, you have to rewrite your entire codebase. Nobody wants to do that. So Google TPUs sit unused while developers fight over Nvidia chips. Until now. TorchTPU makes PyTorch run natively on Google hardware. No rewrites. No performance loss. No months of engineering. You just... switch. And Google is partnering with META (who built PyTorch) to make it happen. They're even considering OPEN-SOURCING parts of it to speed adoption. Translation: Google is willing to give this away for free just to break Nvidia's lock. The implications are insane: Every company currently paying Nvidia's premium prices suddenly has a way out. Oracle, Microsoft, OpenAI - all locked into Nvidia's ecosystem - can switch to Google. Nvidia's pricing power evaporates overnight. And the timing is perfect: Nvidia is already facing heat. Semiconductor index dropped 3% today. Oracle just lost their biggest investor over AI spending concerns. Companies are realizing AI infrastructure costs are unsustainable. Now Google hands them an alternative. Same performance. Lower cost. Better availability. Jensen Huang knows exactly what this means. CUDA has been Nvidia's untouchable advantage for YEARS. It's why Nvidia trades at 50x earnings while AMD trades at 25x. The software moat justified the premium. But if Google removes that switching cost? Nvidia becomes just another chip company. And chip companies compete on price, not ecosystem lock-in. Here's what happens next: Google needs 12-18 months to make TorchTPU production-ready. If it works, cloud providers will adopt it instantly. They WANT an alternative to Nvidia's monopoly pricing. Amazon already building their own Trainium chips. Microsoft making Maia. They're all trying to escape Nvidia. Google just gave them the software bridge. Nvidia's response options are limited: They can't buy Google. Can't kill PyTorch (Meta owns it). Can't stop open source. Their only play is to keep improving CUDA faster than Google can catch up. But that's a race, not a moat. The market isn't pricing this in yet. Nvidia down 2% today. Google down 2%. Investors think this is just "another competitor." They don't understand this is an attack on the FOUNDATION of Nvidia's valuation. Hardware is replaceable. Software lock-in is what made Nvidia worth $4 trillion. Google is attacking the lock-in. Watch what happens in 2026 when TorchTPU goes live and companies realize they can actually leave Nvidia. The "Nvidia is unstoppable" narrative dies. And a $4 trillion valuation built on software moats gets repriced.

Google just launched a direct attack on Nvidia's most valuable asset. Not their chips. Their SOFTWARE. And if this works, Nvidia's $4 trillion empire collapses. Here's what just leaked: Google is building "TorchTPU" - a secret project that makes PyTorch seamlessly run on Google's TPU chips instead of Nvidia GPUs. Why does this matter? PyTorch is the MOST USED AI framework on Earth. Every AI developer uses it. And PyTorch was built around Nvidia's CUDA software. Wall Street analysts call CUDA "Nvidia's strongest defensive wall." It's the reason companies can't easily switch away from Nvidia even when alternatives exist. You don't just buy Nvidia chips. You buy into their entire ecosystem. Switching costs MILLIONS in engineering work. Months of rewrites. Performance drops. So companies stay locked in. Even when Nvidia raises prices. Even when supply runs short. That's not a hardware moat. That's a SOFTWARE prison. And Google just found the escape route. Here's the problem Nvidia created for itself: Google's TPU chips are actually GOOD. Competitive performance. Better availability. Lower cost. But developers won't use them because Google's chips run JAX (Google's internal framework), not PyTorch. That means if you want to use Google TPUs, you have to rewrite your entire codebase. Nobody wants to do that. So Google TPUs sit unused while developers fight over Nvidia chips. Until now. TorchTPU makes PyTorch run natively on Google hardware. No rewrites. No performance loss. No months of engineering. You just... switch. And Google is partnering with META (who built PyTorch) to make it happen. They're even considering OPEN-SOURCING parts of it to speed adoption. Translation: Google is willing to give this away for free just to break Nvidia's lock. The implications are insane: Every company currently paying Nvidia's premium prices suddenly has a way out. Oracle, Microsoft, OpenAI - all locked into Nvidia's ecosystem - can switch to Google. Nvidia's pricing power evaporates overnight. And the timing is perfect: Nvidia is already facing heat. Semiconductor index dropped 3% today. Oracle just lost their biggest investor over AI spending concerns. Companies are realizing AI infrastructure costs are unsustainable. Now Google hands them an alternative. Same performance. Lower cost. Better availability. Jensen Huang knows exactly what this means. CUDA has been Nvidia's untouchable advantage for YEARS. It's why Nvidia trades at 50x earnings while AMD trades at 25x. The software moat justified the premium. But if Google removes that switching cost? Nvidia becomes just another chip company. And chip companies compete on price, not ecosystem lock-in. Here's what happens next: Google needs 12-18 months to make TorchTPU production-ready. If it works, cloud providers will adopt it instantly. They WANT an alternative to Nvidia's monopoly pricing. Amazon already building their own Trainium chips. Microsoft making Maia. They're all trying to escape Nvidia. Google just gave them the software bridge. Nvidia's response options are limited: They can't buy Google. Can't kill PyTorch (Meta owns it). Can't stop open source. Their only play is to keep improving CUDA faster than Google can catch up. But that's a race, not a moat. The market isn't pricing this in yet. Nvidia down 2% today. Google down 2%. Investors think this is just "another competitor." They don't understand this is an attack on the FOUNDATION of Nvidia's valuation. Hardware is replaceable. Software lock-in is what made Nvidia worth $4 trillion. Google is attacking the lock-in. Watch what happens in 2026 when TorchTPU goes live and companies realize they can actually leave Nvidia. The "Nvidia is unstoppable" narrative dies. And a $4 trillion valuation built on software moats gets repriced.

Ricardo

1,616,584 views • 7 months ago

$Nvidia is the central bank of AI compute. It pulls in nearly $60B per quarter — almost all from a handful of hyperscalers who plan their AI roadmaps around Jensen's release cycle. But three shifts are happening at once: • Google is committing up to one million TPUs to Anthropic starting 2026 — the first credible alternative at frontier scale. • Racks are already pushing hundreds of kilowatts, with megawatt systems on the horizon. • Nvidia has $26B in commitments to rent back its own GPUs from cloud partners — up from $12.6B last quarter. The real constraint isn't chips anymore — it's power and memory. Over the next 3–5 years, this creates a fractured landscape: Nvidia GPUs as the default utility, Google TPUs as a real second ecosystem, and hyperscalers racing to escape the Nvidia tax. Let’s walk through how that actually plays out:$

Nvidia is the central bank of AI compute. It pulls in nearly $60B per quarter — almost all from a handful of hyperscalers who plan their AI roadmaps around Jensen's release cycle. But three shifts are happening at once: • Google is committing up to one million TPUs to Anthropic starting 2026 — the first credible alternative at frontier scale. • Racks are already pushing hundreds of kilowatts, with megawatt systems on the horizon. • Nvidia has $26B in commitments to rent back its own GPUs from cloud partners — up from $12.6B last quarter. The real constraint isn't chips anymore — it's power and memory. Over the next 3–5 years, this creates a fractured landscape: Nvidia GPUs as the default utility, Google TPUs as a real second ecosystem, and hyperscalers racing to escape the Nvidia tax. Let’s walk through how that actually plays out:

Computer

200,997 views • 8 months ago

Broadcom's CEO just exposed the real fight underneath Google's AI chip strategy. It is not Google versus Broadcom. It is Google and Broadcom trying to make Nvidia replaceable. Within two minutes at Bloomberg Tech, Hock Tan was asked whether Google bringing more chip design in house keeps him up at night. His exact words: "So we just compete against my own customer." Then he named the real enemy: "the real competitor facing all this is the GPU out of Nvidia." That is the part most people miss. Custom AI chips are not just cheaper GPUs. They are ownership claims. If Google owns the workload, the compiler stack, the cloud customer, and the TPU roadmap, Nvidia becomes a benchmark instead of the toll booth. But Broadcom is still in the room because independence is not binary. The hard part is not drawing a chip. The hard part is shipping generation after generation at scale, matching Nvidia's cadence, keeping networking tight, and making the whole system useful enough that developers do not care what silicon sits underneath. That is why Tan can say Google is trying to create customer owned tooling and still sound calm. Broadcom is not selling picks and shovels. It is selling the bridge out of Nvidia dependency. The numbers explain why this is suddenly a board level issue. Broadcom reported $22.2 billion of Q2 2026 revenue. Its AI semiconductor revenue hit $10.8 billion, up 143 percent year over year. For Q3, Broadcom guided AI semiconductor revenue to $16.0 billion, up more than 200 percent year over year. In the clip, Tan says Broadcom has exactly 6 custom AI accelerator customers. He says OpenAI has been engaged for over 2 years, its accelerator is already working in labs and data centers, and production is on track for late this year. That is the hidden mechanism: The AI labs are not becoming software companies with some chips attached. They are becoming capacity companies with model interfaces attached. Once your margin depends on tokens, latency, memory bandwidth, power contracts, packaging slots, networking gear, and a private accelerator schedule, the "model company" label starts to look like a costume. The precedent is Apple. Apple did not move into custom silicon because it wanted a cute chip branding story. It moved because the iPhone needed control over performance per watt, release cadence, and differentiation. A series chips in 2010. M1 in 2020. More than a decade of slowly pulling the bottleneck inside the company. But Apple still needed TSMC. That is the useful analogy for Google, OpenAI, and the other AI giants. They want Nvidia's margin pool. They want Nvidia's roadmap power. They want Nvidia's ability to decide who gets capacity first. But the first supplier they replace becomes the supplier they cannot live without. Broadcom is the customs officer at the border of private silicon. Second order consequence: AI company valuation will shift from model demos to infrastructure custody. Who owns the workload? Who controls the accelerator roadmap? Who has memory secured? Who can afford to keep a bad first generation alive long enough to get to the second and third? My bet: by the end of 2027, at least one major AI lab will be judged more by its custom chip execution than by its model benchmark lead. The model race is public. The margin race is being negotiated in silicon.

Broadcom's CEO just exposed the real fight underneath Google's AI chip strategy. It is not Google versus Broadcom. It is Google and Broadcom trying to make Nvidia replaceable. Within two minutes at Bloomberg Tech, Hock Tan was asked whether Google bringing more chip design in house keeps him up at night. His exact words: "So we just compete against my own customer." Then he named the real enemy: "the real competitor facing all this is the GPU out of Nvidia." That is the part most people miss. Custom AI chips are not just cheaper GPUs. They are ownership claims. If Google owns the workload, the compiler stack, the cloud customer, and the TPU roadmap, Nvidia becomes a benchmark instead of the toll booth. But Broadcom is still in the room because independence is not binary. The hard part is not drawing a chip. The hard part is shipping generation after generation at scale, matching Nvidia's cadence, keeping networking tight, and making the whole system useful enough that developers do not care what silicon sits underneath. That is why Tan can say Google is trying to create customer owned tooling and still sound calm. Broadcom is not selling picks and shovels. It is selling the bridge out of Nvidia dependency. The numbers explain why this is suddenly a board level issue. Broadcom reported $22.2 billion of Q2 2026 revenue. Its AI semiconductor revenue hit $10.8 billion, up 143 percent year over year. For Q3, Broadcom guided AI semiconductor revenue to $16.0 billion, up more than 200 percent year over year. In the clip, Tan says Broadcom has exactly 6 custom AI accelerator customers. He says OpenAI has been engaged for over 2 years, its accelerator is already working in labs and data centers, and production is on track for late this year. That is the hidden mechanism: The AI labs are not becoming software companies with some chips attached. They are becoming capacity companies with model interfaces attached. Once your margin depends on tokens, latency, memory bandwidth, power contracts, packaging slots, networking gear, and a private accelerator schedule, the "model company" label starts to look like a costume. The precedent is Apple. Apple did not move into custom silicon because it wanted a cute chip branding story. It moved because the iPhone needed control over performance per watt, release cadence, and differentiation. A series chips in 2010. M1 in 2020. More than a decade of slowly pulling the bottleneck inside the company. But Apple still needed TSMC. That is the useful analogy for Google, OpenAI, and the other AI giants. They want Nvidia's margin pool. They want Nvidia's roadmap power. They want Nvidia's ability to decide who gets capacity first. But the first supplier they replace becomes the supplier they cannot live without. Broadcom is the customs officer at the border of private silicon. Second order consequence: AI company valuation will shift from model demos to infrastructure custody. Who owns the workload? Who controls the accelerator roadmap? Who has memory secured? Who can afford to keep a bad first generation alive long enough to get to the second and third? My bet: by the end of 2027, at least one major AI lab will be judged more by its custom chip execution than by its model benchmark lead. The model race is public. The margin race is being negotiated in silicon.

Andrej Drats

10,572 views • 27 days ago

AMD might have disrupted Nvidia's entire cloud GPU rental business. In January at CES, AMD CEO Lisa Su demonstrated a $1,499 mini PC running the same class of AI model that currently costs companies $2,500 to $3,000 every month to rent from Nvidia-powered cloud servers. AMD's own branded version opened pre-orders this month at $3,999. Third party manufacturers have been selling the same chip since 2025 starting at $1,499. Here is exactly why this is dangerous for Nvidia. Nvidia's $75 billion quarterly revenue is built almost entirely on one business model, companies rent access to Nvidia GPUs through cloud providers like AWS and Lambda Labs to run AI. They pay monthly. Nvidia gets paid every time someone runs an AI model in the cloud. That recurring rental income is what turned Nvidia into a $5 trillion company. The AMD box eliminates that monthly fee permanently. One AI consultant switched from $2,800 per month in Nvidia cloud rental costs to $8 per month in electricity. The hardware paid for itself in 11 days. Over 8 months he generated $47,000 running the same AI workloads that previously left him paying Nvidia's ecosystem $2,800 every single month. Multiply that across thousands of enterprise customers and the revenue erosion becomes structural. Every business that buys this box stops paying cloud rental fees forever. Lawyers, doctors, banks, accountants, and financial advisors, businesses with sensitive data that cannot legally go to a cloud server represent billions in annual cloud GPU fees that Nvidia is now at risk of losing permanently. The threat is also closing in from the top. Google signed deals worth tens of billions with Anthropic and Meta to replace Nvidia with its own chips. Amazon built its own AI chips across AWS. Apple trained its AI on Google's chips, not Nvidia's. Custom silicon has grown from 21% of the AI chip market in 2025 to 28% in 2026. Nvidia's rental model only worked because serious AI compute had no alternative.

AMD might have disrupted Nvidia's entire cloud GPU rental business. In January at CES, AMD CEO Lisa Su demonstrated a $1,499 mini PC running the same class of AI model that currently costs companies $2,500 to $3,000 every month to rent from Nvidia-powered cloud servers. AMD's own branded version opened pre-orders this month at $3,999. Third party manufacturers have been selling the same chip since 2025 starting at $1,499. Here is exactly why this is dangerous for Nvidia. Nvidia's $75 billion quarterly revenue is built almost entirely on one business model, companies rent access to Nvidia GPUs through cloud providers like AWS and Lambda Labs to run AI. They pay monthly. Nvidia gets paid every time someone runs an AI model in the cloud. That recurring rental income is what turned Nvidia into a $5 trillion company. The AMD box eliminates that monthly fee permanently. One AI consultant switched from $2,800 per month in Nvidia cloud rental costs to $8 per month in electricity. The hardware paid for itself in 11 days. Over 8 months he generated $47,000 running the same AI workloads that previously left him paying Nvidia's ecosystem $2,800 every single month. Multiply that across thousands of enterprise customers and the revenue erosion becomes structural. Every business that buys this box stops paying cloud rental fees forever. Lawyers, doctors, banks, accountants, and financial advisors, businesses with sensitive data that cannot legally go to a cloud server represent billions in annual cloud GPU fees that Nvidia is now at risk of losing permanently. The threat is also closing in from the top. Google signed deals worth tens of billions with Anthropic and Meta to replace Nvidia with its own chips. Amazon built its own AI chips across AWS. Apple trained its AI on Google's chips, not Nvidia's. Custom silicon has grown from 21% of the AI chip market in 2025 to 28% in 2026. Nvidia's rental model only worked because serious AI compute had no alternative.

Bull Theory

26,668 views • 1 month ago

Jensen is using Nebius to fight the hyperscalers and this is why they will be a $1T hyperscaler (Save this) According to a new Schedule 13G filing, Nvidia beneficially owns 22.25 million Class A shares of Nebius, made up of 1.19 million shares held directly and 21.07 million shares tied to pre-funded warrants acquired back in March 2026. That warrant stake traces back to a $2 billion deal Nvidia struck with Nebius on March where Nvidia bought pre-funded warrants for roughly 21 million shares at an exercise price of essentially zero, structured to work almost like an upfront equity check. Nvidia is currently restricted from exercising or selling any of those warrant-backed shares until September 11, 2026, so this stake has been locked up and largely out of the news cycle until the filing just brought it back into view. That deal came bundled with a much bigger strategic partnership. Alongside the investment, Nvidia and Nebius announced a plan to build out more than 5 gigawatts of Nvidia-powered AI cloud infrastructure by the end of 2030, giving Nebius early access to Nvidia's next-generation Rubin platform, Vera CPUs, and BlueField storage systems well ahead of most competitors. This stake fits a pattern Jensen Huang has been running for a while now. Huang reportedly hates a world where hyperscalers control all the compute, since Google TPUs and Amazon Trainium getting stronger is the one outcome that actually threatens Nvidia long-term. That's why Nvidia keeps putting money into neoclouds like Nebius and CoreWeave and backstopping their GPU clusters, effectively betting on a wide field of players rather than letting three or four hyperscalers dominate the entire compute layer. A GPU sold to Nebius costs Nvidia the same as a GPU sold to Google today, but five years out, every neocloud that survives and scales is one more customer that isn't building its own competing chip and one more reason inference keeps running on open, non-hyperscaler infrastructure instead of a closed ecosystem Nvidia doesn't control. That's the real bull case for Nebius becoming a trillion dollar hyperscaler in its own right. It already has $27 billion locked in from Meta, $17.3 billion from Microsoft, direct equity backing from Nvidia and priority access to Nvidia's next generation chip roadmap before most competitors get it, giving it the capital, the customer base, and the hardware edge all at once, exactly the combination Nvidia needs someone to have if it wants a real fifth hyperscaler standing up against Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta. I remain extremely bullish on Nebius, follow me Melvin for more infrastructure plays and make sure to check out the link below for more!

Jensen is using Nebius to fight the hyperscalers and this is why they will be a $1T hyperscaler (Save this) According to a new Schedule 13G filing, Nvidia beneficially owns 22.25 million Class A shares of Nebius, made up of 1.19 million shares held directly and 21.07 million shares tied to pre-funded warrants acquired back in March 2026. That warrant stake traces back to a $2 billion deal Nvidia struck with Nebius on March where Nvidia bought pre-funded warrants for roughly 21 million shares at an exercise price of essentially zero, structured to work almost like an upfront equity check. Nvidia is currently restricted from exercising or selling any of those warrant-backed shares until September 11, 2026, so this stake has been locked up and largely out of the news cycle until the filing just brought it back into view. That deal came bundled with a much bigger strategic partnership. Alongside the investment, Nvidia and Nebius announced a plan to build out more than 5 gigawatts of Nvidia-powered AI cloud infrastructure by the end of 2030, giving Nebius early access to Nvidia's next-generation Rubin platform, Vera CPUs, and BlueField storage systems well ahead of most competitors. This stake fits a pattern Jensen Huang has been running for a while now. Huang reportedly hates a world where hyperscalers control all the compute, since Google TPUs and Amazon Trainium getting stronger is the one outcome that actually threatens Nvidia long-term. That's why Nvidia keeps putting money into neoclouds like Nebius and CoreWeave and backstopping their GPU clusters, effectively betting on a wide field of players rather than letting three or four hyperscalers dominate the entire compute layer. A GPU sold to Nebius costs Nvidia the same as a GPU sold to Google today, but five years out, every neocloud that survives and scales is one more customer that isn't building its own competing chip and one more reason inference keeps running on open, non-hyperscaler infrastructure instead of a closed ecosystem Nvidia doesn't control. That's the real bull case for Nebius becoming a trillion dollar hyperscaler in its own right. It already has $27 billion locked in from Meta, $17.3 billion from Microsoft, direct equity backing from Nvidia and priority access to Nvidia's next generation chip roadmap before most competitors get it, giving it the capital, the customer base, and the hardware edge all at once, exactly the combination Nvidia needs someone to have if it wants a real fifth hyperscaler standing up against Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta. I remain extremely bullish on Nebius, follow me Melvin for more infrastructure plays and make sure to check out the link below for more!

Melvin

75,069 views • 15 days ago

Google is making $62 billion a quarter destroying the websites it NEEDS to survive. This is literally a death spiral that ends with Google killing itself. Let me explain what's going on... Google added AI summaries to the top of every search result in 2024. When you Google something now, the answer sits right there on Google's page. You never have to click anywhere. Google took the information from someone else's website, summarized it, and kept you inside Google's ecosystem. The result: 60% of all Google searches now end without a single click to any website. Small publishers lost 60% of their traffic in one year. Medium publishers lost 47%. Even the biggest names in media, the New York Times, the Washington Post, Business Insider, all saw traffic fall between 22% and 55%. The Axios CEO called it "a referral extinction event for the ad-supported web." Google's response to all of this was to tell publishers they can "opt out" of having their content summarized. But opting out also REMOVES your description from normal search results. So the choice Google gives you is let us steal your content for free, or become invisible on the internet. That's extortion. The Washington Post laid off another round of journalists this year because of it. Stereogum, one of the most respected music publications on the internet, had to BEG readers for donations. Business Insider cut 21% of its staff. Dozens of smaller publishers have shut down entirely. The people who actually CREATE the information Google summarizes are going bankrupt while Google posts record revenue. But here's where this gets interesting and where everyone stops thinking: Google's AI summaries are only as good as the content they summarize. If the publishers who write the original articles, run the original investigations, and create the original data go out of business, there is nothing left for Google to summarize. The AI starts recycling old information, the answers get stale, the quality drops, and users start noticing that Google's summaries are increasingly wrong, outdated, or useless. Google is essentially strip-mining the internet for short-term revenue. They are extracting all the value from content creators without paying for it, driving those creators out of business, and then wondering why the quality of their own product is declining. This is exactly what Napster did to the music industry in the early 2000s: Made content free, creators went broke, and quality collapsed. It took a decade to rebuild. Google is doing the same thing to the entire internet at 100x the scale. Rolling Stone, Variety, Deadline, The Hollywood Reporter, and Billboard are now suing Google for antitrust violations. Chegg, the education platform, lost 49% of its traffic and is suing too. The UK's competition authority just ordered Google to let publishers opt out without being punished. The DOJ already ruled Google is an illegal monopoly. And Google's defense in court is genuinely unbelievable. They argue that publishers CHOOSE to let Google index their content and can leave anytime they want. That's like saying you choose to pay protection money to the mob because technically you could close your business and move to another city. Google controls 90% of search. Leaving Google means leaving the internet. Meanwhile Google is investing billions in custom AI chips to make these summaries cheaper at scale. Every quarter the problem gets worse. The internet as we've known it for 25 years ran on a simple deal: Publishers make content. Google sends traffic. Advertisers pay for the traffic. Everyone wins. But Google just BROKE that deal and kept all the money.

Google is making $62 billion a quarter destroying the websites it NEEDS to survive. This is literally a death spiral that ends with Google killing itself. Let me explain what's going on... Google added AI summaries to the top of every search result in 2024. When you Google something now, the answer sits right there on Google's page. You never have to click anywhere. Google took the information from someone else's website, summarized it, and kept you inside Google's ecosystem. The result: 60% of all Google searches now end without a single click to any website. Small publishers lost 60% of their traffic in one year. Medium publishers lost 47%. Even the biggest names in media, the New York Times, the Washington Post, Business Insider, all saw traffic fall between 22% and 55%. The Axios CEO called it "a referral extinction event for the ad-supported web." Google's response to all of this was to tell publishers they can "opt out" of having their content summarized. But opting out also REMOVES your description from normal search results. So the choice Google gives you is let us steal your content for free, or become invisible on the internet. That's extortion. The Washington Post laid off another round of journalists this year because of it. Stereogum, one of the most respected music publications on the internet, had to BEG readers for donations. Business Insider cut 21% of its staff. Dozens of smaller publishers have shut down entirely. The people who actually CREATE the information Google summarizes are going bankrupt while Google posts record revenue. But here's where this gets interesting and where everyone stops thinking: Google's AI summaries are only as good as the content they summarize. If the publishers who write the original articles, run the original investigations, and create the original data go out of business, there is nothing left for Google to summarize. The AI starts recycling old information, the answers get stale, the quality drops, and users start noticing that Google's summaries are increasingly wrong, outdated, or useless. Google is essentially strip-mining the internet for short-term revenue. They are extracting all the value from content creators without paying for it, driving those creators out of business, and then wondering why the quality of their own product is declining. This is exactly what Napster did to the music industry in the early 2000s: Made content free, creators went broke, and quality collapsed. It took a decade to rebuild. Google is doing the same thing to the entire internet at 100x the scale. Rolling Stone, Variety, Deadline, The Hollywood Reporter, and Billboard are now suing Google for antitrust violations. Chegg, the education platform, lost 49% of its traffic and is suing too. The UK's competition authority just ordered Google to let publishers opt out without being punished. The DOJ already ruled Google is an illegal monopoly. And Google's defense in court is genuinely unbelievable. They argue that publishers CHOOSE to let Google index their content and can leave anytime they want. That's like saying you choose to pay protection money to the mob because technically you could close your business and move to another city. Google controls 90% of search. Leaving Google means leaving the internet. Meanwhile Google is investing billions in custom AI chips to make these summaries cheaper at scale. Every quarter the problem gets worse. The internet as we've known it for 25 years ran on a simple deal: Publishers make content. Google sends traffic. Advertisers pay for the traffic. Everyone wins. But Google just BROKE that deal and kept all the money.

Ricardo

250,877 views • 2 months ago

Big Tech just ran out of money building AI and what they're doing to cover it up should be illegal. Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta are spending a combined $700 BILLION this year on AI infrastructure. This eats up 94% of their total operating cash flow. The richest companies in human history are almost broke. And instead of slowing down, they're covering it up with the biggest financial engineering operation since 2008: Google just sold $80 billion in stock to fund AI infrastructure. That was their first equity raise in 20 YEARS. The last time Google needed to sell stock, YouTube didn't even exist. Sundar Pichai admitted the thing keeping him up at night is "compute capacity." The company that prints $100 billion a year in ad revenue just told Wall Street it isn't enough anymore. Amazon's free cash flow is projected to go NEGATIVE this year for the first time ever. Morgan Stanley estimates a $17 billion deficit and Bank of America says $28 billion. The most profitable logistics machine on Earth is about to burn more cash than it generates, and they quietly filed with the SEC saying they may need to raise even more debt and equity to keep building. All four hyperscalers are now borrowing hundreds of billions in bonds to keep the AI buildout alive. These were the most cash-rich companies in human history, and they're leveraging themselves to the teeth to build infrastructure that nobody has proven will generate enough revenue to pay for itself. And the cracks are already starting to show: Broadcom makes the custom AI chips that power Google, Meta, OpenAI, and Anthropic. This week their AI revenue TRIPLED year over year, sales grew 48%, and profits smashed every Wall Street estimate. The reward for all of that was $320 billion in value erased in a single trading session. Their CEO Hock Tan went on the earnings call and exposed three things about the AI industry: Google is already shopping for cheaper AI chip alternatives, broadcom abandoned its strategy of selling complete AI systems and is now retreating to selling bare chips at lower margins. And despite supposedly "unprecedented demand," Tan refused to raise his full-year forecast, which tells you everything about what he's actually seeing behind the curtain. Wall Street heard all three and hit the sell button so hard it dragged AMD, Intel, and the entire chip sector down with it. When a company triples its AI revenue and gets punished because tripling isn't fast enough, the expectations have left the atmosphere entirely. And here's the really scary part... These companies ARE your retirement account. Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta, and Nvidia make up roughly 30% of the S&P 500. If you have a 401k or an index fund, you are already exposed to this bet whether you chose to be or not. Every single one of these companies is telling you AI will generate trillions in revenue. But right now the math says they're spending trillions FIRST and hoping the revenue shows up later. If the revenue catches up, this becomes the greatest infrastructure buildout in human history. Bigger than railroads and bigger than the internet. If it doesn't, the companies that make up a third of the American stock market just leveraged their balance sheets into the largest write-down cycle since 2000. And unlike the dot-com crash, this time the bubble companies aren't random startups with no revenue. They're the backbone of the entire global economy.

Big Tech just ran out of money building AI and what they're doing to cover it up should be illegal. Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta are spending a combined $700 BILLION this year on AI infrastructure. This eats up 94% of their total operating cash flow. The richest companies in human history are almost broke. And instead of slowing down, they're covering it up with the biggest financial engineering operation since 2008: Google just sold $80 billion in stock to fund AI infrastructure. That was their first equity raise in 20 YEARS. The last time Google needed to sell stock, YouTube didn't even exist. Sundar Pichai admitted the thing keeping him up at night is "compute capacity." The company that prints $100 billion a year in ad revenue just told Wall Street it isn't enough anymore. Amazon's free cash flow is projected to go NEGATIVE this year for the first time ever. Morgan Stanley estimates a $17 billion deficit and Bank of America says $28 billion. The most profitable logistics machine on Earth is about to burn more cash than it generates, and they quietly filed with the SEC saying they may need to raise even more debt and equity to keep building. All four hyperscalers are now borrowing hundreds of billions in bonds to keep the AI buildout alive. These were the most cash-rich companies in human history, and they're leveraging themselves to the teeth to build infrastructure that nobody has proven will generate enough revenue to pay for itself. And the cracks are already starting to show: Broadcom makes the custom AI chips that power Google, Meta, OpenAI, and Anthropic. This week their AI revenue TRIPLED year over year, sales grew 48%, and profits smashed every Wall Street estimate. The reward for all of that was $320 billion in value erased in a single trading session. Their CEO Hock Tan went on the earnings call and exposed three things about the AI industry: Google is already shopping for cheaper AI chip alternatives, broadcom abandoned its strategy of selling complete AI systems and is now retreating to selling bare chips at lower margins. And despite supposedly "unprecedented demand," Tan refused to raise his full-year forecast, which tells you everything about what he's actually seeing behind the curtain. Wall Street heard all three and hit the sell button so hard it dragged AMD, Intel, and the entire chip sector down with it. When a company triples its AI revenue and gets punished because tripling isn't fast enough, the expectations have left the atmosphere entirely. And here's the really scary part... These companies ARE your retirement account. Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta, and Nvidia make up roughly 30% of the S&P 500. If you have a 401k or an index fund, you are already exposed to this bet whether you chose to be or not. Every single one of these companies is telling you AI will generate trillions in revenue. But right now the math says they're spending trillions FIRST and hoping the revenue shows up later. If the revenue catches up, this becomes the greatest infrastructure buildout in human history. Bigger than railroads and bigger than the internet. If it doesn't, the companies that make up a third of the American stock market just leveraged their balance sheets into the largest write-down cycle since 2000. And unlike the dot-com crash, this time the bubble companies aren't random startups with no revenue. They're the backbone of the entire global economy.

Ricardo

228,090 views • 1 month ago

SpaceX and Nvidia just announced a partnership to put AI data centers into orbit, and the specs behind it are wild (Save this). SpaceX is partnering with Nvidia to design the compute payload for its new StarMind AI1 satellites, using Nvidia's Rubin GPUs and Vera CPUs to bring data center class AI compute directly into space (Save this). Each satellite pairs roughly 150 kilowatts of peak compute payload with 210 kilowatts of solar arrays, and results get transmitted back down through Starlink's laser network, cutting reliance on Earth's power grid, land, and cooling infrastructure. To support that hardware, SpaceX is raising peak satellite capacity 67% to around 250 kilowatts, enough to power a full Nvidia NVL72 rack containing 72 GPUs in a single satellite. SpaceX plans to manufacture and deploy thousands of these AI satellites out of a new Gigasat Factory in Bastrop, Texas, with deployment starting as early as late 2027. The logic here is straightforward once you think about what's actually constraining AI growth on Earth. Data centers on the ground are bottlenecked by grid interconnection queues, water for cooling, and land availability near power sources and putting compute in orbit sidesteps all three at once, since satellites get essentially free cooling from the vacuum of space and unlimited solar power without competing for grid capacity. This ties directly into the broader race unfolding on the ground right now, the scramble to secure power, chips, and physical space fast enough to keep pace with AI demand. That's the exact bottleneck problem SpaceX and Nvidia appear to be trying to leapfrog, by skipping the ground entirely and building compute where power and cooling are already abundant. If this plan scales the way SpaceX is describing, it effectively turns space into an extension of the AI infrastructure buildout rather than just a communications business. That's a meaningfully different growth vector than anything currently priced into SpaceX's valuation. It's worth remembering that Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has already flagged Elon Musk as uniquely positioned in the AI race, pointing to Tesla's massive fleet of cars on the road as a real world data collection engine feeding its AI factory. Huang specifically called out Musk's simultaneous work across XAI's foundation models, Tesla's autonomous driving, and Optimus humanoid robotics as covering the three most important frontiers in AI today. Bullish on SpaceX and Nvidia, if you want to see the exact thesis around this and the trades are making, you can come join us using the link below for just a dollar!

SpaceX and Nvidia just announced a partnership to put AI data centers into orbit, and the specs behind it are wild (Save this). SpaceX is partnering with Nvidia to design the compute payload for its new StarMind AI1 satellites, using Nvidia's Rubin GPUs and Vera CPUs to bring data center class AI compute directly into space (Save this). Each satellite pairs roughly 150 kilowatts of peak compute payload with 210 kilowatts of solar arrays, and results get transmitted back down through Starlink's laser network, cutting reliance on Earth's power grid, land, and cooling infrastructure. To support that hardware, SpaceX is raising peak satellite capacity 67% to around 250 kilowatts, enough to power a full Nvidia NVL72 rack containing 72 GPUs in a single satellite. SpaceX plans to manufacture and deploy thousands of these AI satellites out of a new Gigasat Factory in Bastrop, Texas, with deployment starting as early as late 2027. The logic here is straightforward once you think about what's actually constraining AI growth on Earth. Data centers on the ground are bottlenecked by grid interconnection queues, water for cooling, and land availability near power sources and putting compute in orbit sidesteps all three at once, since satellites get essentially free cooling from the vacuum of space and unlimited solar power without competing for grid capacity. This ties directly into the broader race unfolding on the ground right now, the scramble to secure power, chips, and physical space fast enough to keep pace with AI demand. That's the exact bottleneck problem SpaceX and Nvidia appear to be trying to leapfrog, by skipping the ground entirely and building compute where power and cooling are already abundant. If this plan scales the way SpaceX is describing, it effectively turns space into an extension of the AI infrastructure buildout rather than just a communications business. That's a meaningfully different growth vector than anything currently priced into SpaceX's valuation. It's worth remembering that Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has already flagged Elon Musk as uniquely positioned in the AI race, pointing to Tesla's massive fleet of cars on the road as a real world data collection engine feeding its AI factory. Huang specifically called out Musk's simultaneous work across XAI's foundation models, Tesla's autonomous driving, and Optimus humanoid robotics as covering the three most important frontiers in AI today. Bullish on SpaceX and Nvidia, if you want to see the exact thesis around this and the trades are making, you can come join us using the link below for just a dollar!

Milk Road AI

17,576 views • 1 day ago

Chris Camillo just made the most bullish case on $AMZN. Everyone worried when Amazon raised their capex to $200 billion Camillo believes they might make that $200 billion back on their Anthropic investment alone when Anthropic IPOs. What Amazon has done in the last 18 months is remarkable in scope. They didn't try to win the foundation model race against OpenAI and Google directly. They went a completely different direction, positioning themselves as the infrastructure underneath everything that is AI. Trainium chips, cloud buildout, advertising integration and equity stakes in two of the three most important AI companies on the planet. First Anthropic. Now $50 billion into OpenAI on top of that. And that OpenAI investment isn't just a financial bet. It ties OpenAI into Amazon's cloud ecosystem, probably permanently. Two of the big three AI labs now run on Amazon infrastructure. Google is the only one that doesn't. The market has spent two years debating who builds the best model. Amazon decided to own the plumbing those models run on and bought equity in the winners while they were at it.

Chris Camillo just made the most bullish case on $AMZN. Everyone worried when Amazon raised their capex to $200 billion Camillo believes they might make that $200 billion back on their Anthropic investment alone when Anthropic IPOs. What Amazon has done in the last 18 months is remarkable in scope. They didn't try to win the foundation model race against OpenAI and Google directly. They went a completely different direction, positioning themselves as the infrastructure underneath everything that is AI. Trainium chips, cloud buildout, advertising integration and equity stakes in two of the three most important AI companies on the planet. First Anthropic. Now $50 billion into OpenAI on top of that. And that OpenAI investment isn't just a financial bet. It ties OpenAI into Amazon's cloud ecosystem, probably permanently. Two of the big three AI labs now run on Amazon infrastructure. Google is the only one that doesn't. The market has spent two years debating who builds the best model. Amazon decided to own the plumbing those models run on and bought equity in the winners while they were at it.

Milk Road Macro

55,169 views • 2 months ago

Chris Camillo made the most bullish case on $AMZN. Everyone worried when Amazon raised their capex to $200 billion Camillo believes they might make that $200 billion back on their Anthropic investment alone when Anthropic IPOs. What Amazon has done in the last 18 months is remarkable in scope. They didn't try to win the foundation model race against OpenAI and Google directly. They went a completely different direction, positioning themselves as the infrastructure underneath everything that is AI. Trainium chips, cloud buildout, advertising integration and equity stakes in two of the three most important AI companies on the planet. First Anthropic. Now $50 billion into OpenAI on top of that. And that OpenAI investment isn't just a financial bet. It ties OpenAI into Amazon's cloud ecosystem, probably permanently. Two of the big three AI labs now run on Amazon infrastructure. Google is the only one that doesn't. The market has spent two years debating who builds the best model. Amazon decided to own the plumbing those models run on and bought equity in the winners while they were at it.

Chris Camillo made the most bullish case on $AMZN. Everyone worried when Amazon raised their capex to $200 billion Camillo believes they might make that $200 billion back on their Anthropic investment alone when Anthropic IPOs. What Amazon has done in the last 18 months is remarkable in scope. They didn't try to win the foundation model race against OpenAI and Google directly. They went a completely different direction, positioning themselves as the infrastructure underneath everything that is AI. Trainium chips, cloud buildout, advertising integration and equity stakes in two of the three most important AI companies on the planet. First Anthropic. Now $50 billion into OpenAI on top of that. And that OpenAI investment isn't just a financial bet. It ties OpenAI into Amazon's cloud ecosystem, probably permanently. Two of the big three AI labs now run on Amazon infrastructure. Google is the only one that doesn't. The market has spent two years debating who builds the best model. Amazon decided to own the plumbing those models run on and bought equity in the winners while they were at it.

Milk Road Stocks

41,317 views • 9 days ago

Google's Ai Gemini was recently licensed by Apple to power Ai on their devices. Now Mark Zuckerberg seems to be upset at his Ai team and their lack of progress. They have delayed their "Avocado" until May after failing to perform against others. Google Gemini does not use Nvidia chips. Google designed their own Ai chips. Not all Ai hyperscalers will continue. Some will give up. Mark Zuckerberg's META might be the first to give up on their own Ai and just license Gemini, following the Apple model. This would save META a ton of money on infrastructure. It would be bad for Nvidia because they would lose a major Ai hyperscaler customer to Google's Ai chips. Follow: Wall Street Mav

Google's Ai Gemini was recently licensed by Apple to power Ai on their devices. Now Mark Zuckerberg seems to be upset at his Ai team and their lack of progress. They have delayed their "Avocado" until May after failing to perform against others. Google Gemini does not use Nvidia chips. Google designed their own Ai chips. Not all Ai hyperscalers will continue. Some will give up. Mark Zuckerberg's META might be the first to give up on their own Ai and just license Gemini, following the Apple model. This would save META a ton of money on infrastructure. It would be bad for Nvidia because they would lose a major Ai hyperscaler customer to Google's Ai chips. Follow: Wall Street Mav

Wall Street Mav

69,786 views • 4 months ago

Nvidia is pulling off the most sophisticated financial loop in tech history. They invested $40 BILLION in its own customers in just 5 months. Here's why this could blow up the entire AI economy: Nvidia generated $97 billion in free cash flow last year. Instead of sitting on it, Jensen started writing checks to every company in the AI supply chain. Not small checks. We're talking about billions at a time. And almost every single one of those companies turns around and spends that money on Nvidia chips. Follow the money: $30 billion into OpenAI. OpenAI is one of Nvidia's largest GPU customers and spends billions annually on Nvidia hardware through cloud providers. $2 billion into CoreWeave, a company that exists exclusively to rent out data centers full of Nvidia GPUs. $2 billion into Marvell for silicon photonics that connects Nvidia systems. $2 billion into Lumentum for optical tech that powers Nvidia data centers. $2 billion into Coherent for the same thing. $2 billion into Nebius, an AI cloud company deploying Nvidia infrastructure. $3.2 billion into Corning, the glassmaker building three new US factories specifically to make fiber optic cables for Nvidia's next-gen systems. $2.1 billion into IREN, a data center operator that just agreed to deploy 5 gigawatts of Nvidia-designed infrastructure. And the list goes on. Every single recipient either buys Nvidia chips directly, builds infrastructure that runs on Nvidia chips, or manufactures components that go inside Nvidia systems. Matthew Bryson, an analyst at Wedbush Securities, said in a research note that Nvidia's dealmaking fits "squarely into the circular investment theme." Bloomberg even published an entire interactive feature this week titled "AI Circular Deals: How Microsoft, OpenAI and Nvidia Keep Paying Each Other." The piece maps how capital flows between the same handful of companies and gets counted as revenue multiple times along the way. But here's the part that makes this genuinely complicated: Nvidia's $5 billion investment in Intel from September is now worth over $25 billion. That's a 5x return in months. Their private company portfolio went from $3.4 billion to $22.3 billion on the balance sheet in a single year. They booked $8.9 billion in gains from equity investments alone. So when critics say "circular investing," Nvidia can point to Intel and say "we turned $5 billion into $25 billion, this is just smart capital deployment." And they're not wrong. Some of these bets ARE paying off like crazy. The real question is whether Nvidia is a chipmaker that happens to invest, or a venture fund that happens to sell chips. Because right now Jensen is doing both at a scale that has never existed in the semiconductor industry. No chipmaker in history has EVER invested $40 billion in its own ecosystem in five months. Last fiscal year Nvidia invested $17.5 billion in private companies. Their SEC filing literally says those investments include "AI model companies that purchase its products directly or through cloud service providers." They're saying it themselves: We invest in companies that buy our products. On Nvidia's last earnings call, Jensen told investors their investments are focused on "expanding and deepening our ecosystem reach." Translate that from CEO-speak and it means " we're funding the companies that fund us. The bull case says Nvidia is building an unbreakable moat by financing the entire AI supply chain and ensuring it all runs on Nvidia hardware. The bear case says this is the most elaborate circular revenue scheme since the subprime mortgage era and it all breaks apart the moment one domino falls. Both cases use the exact same evidence.

Nvidia is pulling off the most sophisticated financial loop in tech history. They invested $40 BILLION in its own customers in just 5 months. Here's why this could blow up the entire AI economy: Nvidia generated $97 billion in free cash flow last year. Instead of sitting on it, Jensen started writing checks to every company in the AI supply chain. Not small checks. We're talking about billions at a time. And almost every single one of those companies turns around and spends that money on Nvidia chips. Follow the money: $30 billion into OpenAI. OpenAI is one of Nvidia's largest GPU customers and spends billions annually on Nvidia hardware through cloud providers. $2 billion into CoreWeave, a company that exists exclusively to rent out data centers full of Nvidia GPUs. $2 billion into Marvell for silicon photonics that connects Nvidia systems. $2 billion into Lumentum for optical tech that powers Nvidia data centers. $2 billion into Coherent for the same thing. $2 billion into Nebius, an AI cloud company deploying Nvidia infrastructure. $3.2 billion into Corning, the glassmaker building three new US factories specifically to make fiber optic cables for Nvidia's next-gen systems. $2.1 billion into IREN, a data center operator that just agreed to deploy 5 gigawatts of Nvidia-designed infrastructure. And the list goes on. Every single recipient either buys Nvidia chips directly, builds infrastructure that runs on Nvidia chips, or manufactures components that go inside Nvidia systems. Matthew Bryson, an analyst at Wedbush Securities, said in a research note that Nvidia's dealmaking fits "squarely into the circular investment theme." Bloomberg even published an entire interactive feature this week titled "AI Circular Deals: How Microsoft, OpenAI and Nvidia Keep Paying Each Other." The piece maps how capital flows between the same handful of companies and gets counted as revenue multiple times along the way. But here's the part that makes this genuinely complicated: Nvidia's $5 billion investment in Intel from September is now worth over $25 billion. That's a 5x return in months. Their private company portfolio went from $3.4 billion to $22.3 billion on the balance sheet in a single year. They booked $8.9 billion in gains from equity investments alone. So when critics say "circular investing," Nvidia can point to Intel and say "we turned $5 billion into $25 billion, this is just smart capital deployment." And they're not wrong. Some of these bets ARE paying off like crazy. The real question is whether Nvidia is a chipmaker that happens to invest, or a venture fund that happens to sell chips. Because right now Jensen is doing both at a scale that has never existed in the semiconductor industry. No chipmaker in history has EVER invested $40 billion in its own ecosystem in five months. Last fiscal year Nvidia invested $17.5 billion in private companies. Their SEC filing literally says those investments include "AI model companies that purchase its products directly or through cloud service providers." They're saying it themselves: We invest in companies that buy our products. On Nvidia's last earnings call, Jensen told investors their investments are focused on "expanding and deepening our ecosystem reach." Translate that from CEO-speak and it means " we're funding the companies that fund us. The bull case says Nvidia is building an unbreakable moat by financing the entire AI supply chain and ensuring it all runs on Nvidia hardware. The bear case says this is the most elaborate circular revenue scheme since the subprime mortgage era and it all breaks apart the moment one domino falls. Both cases use the exact same evidence.

Ricardo

159,345 views • 2 months ago

The most dangerous thing a company can do right now is rent intelligence from the same place as its competitors (Save this). You cannot rent intelligence from the same place that rents it to your competitor as Chamath Palihapitiya points out. If every company in an industry is feeding their workflows into the same frontier model, they are all converging on the same outputs, the same decisions, the same product improvements. The model becomes the equalizer and everyone pays a premium to become more mediocre. This is happening exactly as Chamath predicted, and the evidence is now concrete. Anthropic and OpenAI have established what analysts are now openly calling an emerging model layer duopoly. Anthropic crossed $45 billion ARR in may 2026, more than tripling from $9 billion at the end of 2025, OpenAI was at roughly $24 to $33 billion ARR at the same time. Together, the two companies combined could hit $160 to $240 billion ARR by end of 2026 and Anthropic and OpenAI now control 88% of enterprise LLM spend. That concentration is the structural problem Chamath is pointing at. And Anthropic isn't just winning on merit because it's actively lobbying for regulatory outcomes that would make that duopoly permanent. Dario Amodei has explicitly framed open source models as unsafe, pushing a safety agenda that, if enshrined in regulation, would effectively make it illegal for enterprises to use the cheaper, private, sovereign alternatives locking them into a closed model dependency by government decree rather than by choice. So you have market forces producing a duopoly, and potential regulatory capture moving to enforce it from the top down. This is exactly why the Nvidia Palantir partnership is not just a product announcement but rather a strategic counter to that duopoly. The logic is straightforward from both sides because If you're Palantir, sitting at the application layer, the last thing you want is to be permanently beholden to Anthropic or OpenAI for the intelligence that powers your product. You want competitive model options, sovereignty and be able to tell enterprise customers they can run AI on their own infrastructure with their own data without any of it touching a frontier lab's servers. If you're Nvidia, sitting at the chip layer, an Anthropic-OpenAI duopoly is an existential concentration risk. Right now, Meta, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and dozens of other companies buy Nvidia's hardware. If the model layer consolidates into two players, both of which are building their own chips Nvidia faces a monopsony where its best customers are building the tools to displace it. A healthy open source ecosystem where thousands of enterprises train, fine tune, and deploy their own models is Nvidia's ideal market structure. More buyers, more diversity, more demand, less pricing leverage from any single customer.

The most dangerous thing a company can do right now is rent intelligence from the same place as its competitors (Save this). You cannot rent intelligence from the same place that rents it to your competitor as Chamath Palihapitiya points out. If every company in an industry is feeding their workflows into the same frontier model, they are all converging on the same outputs, the same decisions, the same product improvements. The model becomes the equalizer and everyone pays a premium to become more mediocre. This is happening exactly as Chamath predicted, and the evidence is now concrete. Anthropic and OpenAI have established what analysts are now openly calling an emerging model layer duopoly. Anthropic crossed $45 billion ARR in may 2026, more than tripling from $9 billion at the end of 2025, OpenAI was at roughly $24 to $33 billion ARR at the same time. Together, the two companies combined could hit $160 to $240 billion ARR by end of 2026 and Anthropic and OpenAI now control 88% of enterprise LLM spend. That concentration is the structural problem Chamath is pointing at. And Anthropic isn't just winning on merit because it's actively lobbying for regulatory outcomes that would make that duopoly permanent. Dario Amodei has explicitly framed open source models as unsafe, pushing a safety agenda that, if enshrined in regulation, would effectively make it illegal for enterprises to use the cheaper, private, sovereign alternatives locking them into a closed model dependency by government decree rather than by choice. So you have market forces producing a duopoly, and potential regulatory capture moving to enforce it from the top down. This is exactly why the Nvidia Palantir partnership is not just a product announcement but rather a strategic counter to that duopoly. The logic is straightforward from both sides because If you're Palantir, sitting at the application layer, the last thing you want is to be permanently beholden to Anthropic or OpenAI for the intelligence that powers your product. You want competitive model options, sovereignty and be able to tell enterprise customers they can run AI on their own infrastructure with their own data without any of it touching a frontier lab's servers. If you're Nvidia, sitting at the chip layer, an Anthropic-OpenAI duopoly is an existential concentration risk. Right now, Meta, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and dozens of other companies buy Nvidia's hardware. If the model layer consolidates into two players, both of which are building their own chips Nvidia faces a monopsony where its best customers are building the tools to displace it. A healthy open source ecosystem where thousands of enterprises train, fine tune, and deploy their own models is Nvidia's ideal market structure. More buyers, more diversity, more demand, less pricing leverage from any single customer.

Milk Road AI

34,298 views • 1 month ago

On Friday, I hosted a Space with Jonathan Ross, the founder and CEO of Groq Inc - a company I invested in that is building custom chips for AI inference. Jonathan, a former high-school dropout, entered the chip industry while working on ad optimization at Google’s New York office. Jonathan overheard the speech recognition team complaining that they couldn't get enough compute. These were the early days of AI, and machine learning wasn’t really a thing yet. So he asked for some budget from Google and started putting together a chip-based machine learning accelerator for them. During the day, Jonathan would work in the normal ads part of the business, and at night, he would work with the accelerator team. After winning approval from Google, Jonathan and his team built a new chip called the Tensor Processing Unit, and began deploying it across Google’s data centers within a year. The TPU was a huge success within Google, eventually underpinning more than 50% of all of Google’s compute power. When the other hyper-scalers learned of this success, they tried to hire Jonathan to build custom chips for them too. During this process, it became increasingly clear to Jonathan that a gap would emerge between companies that had access to next-gen compute and companies that didn’t. So he founded Groq and set out to build a chip that would be available to everyone. I led Groq’s founding investment in 2016, and since then, Jonathan and his team have developed several types of AI hardware including the Language Processing Unit (LPU), a new type of silicon that is hyper-efficient at running inference for LLMs. In our conversation on Friday, we discussed the founding story of Groq, what you need for great AI hardware, large language models, and some of the implications for the key players in AI. It’s one of the most interesting conversations I’ve had on AI with a lot of learnings. You can listen to our conversation below:

On Friday, I hosted a Space with Jonathan Ross, the founder and CEO of Groq Inc - a company I invested in that is building custom chips for AI inference. Jonathan, a former high-school dropout, entered the chip industry while working on ad optimization at Google’s New York office. Jonathan overheard the speech recognition team complaining that they couldn't get enough compute. These were the early days of AI, and machine learning wasn’t really a thing yet. So he asked for some budget from Google and started putting together a chip-based machine learning accelerator for them. During the day, Jonathan would work in the normal ads part of the business, and at night, he would work with the accelerator team. After winning approval from Google, Jonathan and his team built a new chip called the Tensor Processing Unit, and began deploying it across Google’s data centers within a year. The TPU was a huge success within Google, eventually underpinning more than 50% of all of Google’s compute power. When the other hyper-scalers learned of this success, they tried to hire Jonathan to build custom chips for them too. During this process, it became increasingly clear to Jonathan that a gap would emerge between companies that had access to next-gen compute and companies that didn’t. So he founded Groq and set out to build a chip that would be available to everyone. I led Groq’s founding investment in 2016, and since then, Jonathan and his team have developed several types of AI hardware including the Language Processing Unit (LPU), a new type of silicon that is hyper-efficient at running inference for LLMs. In our conversation on Friday, we discussed the founding story of Groq, what you need for great AI hardware, large language models, and some of the implications for the key players in AI. It’s one of the most interesting conversations I’ve had on AI with a lot of learnings. You can listen to our conversation below:

Chamath Palihapitiya

326,663 views • 2 years ago

Jensen Huang just looked at every tech giant building custom silicon. And laughed. Every major player is burning billions to escape the Nvidia tax. Google is building TPUs. Amazon is building Trainium. Meta is building MTIA. The logic makes sense on a spreadsheet. Design a chip perfectly tailored to your workload. Cut out the middleman. Own the stack. But the spreadsheet assumes the middleman is standing still. Huang: “Look at the number of ASICs that have been canceled… It’s not sensible, actually.” He is not questioning their engineering. He is questioning their math. Custom silicon takes years. Every design choice is a bet on a target that exists today. And Nvidia does not let today exist for long. Huang: “Because of our scale, our velocity, we’re the only company in the world that’s cranking it out every single year.” That is the real weapon. Not the chip. The clock. Nvidia stopped selling performance. They started selling time. By the time a custom ASIC tapes out, Nvidia has already shipped the next generation. The chip arrives obsolete. Not because it failed. Because it was built for a world that no longer exists. The graveyard of custom silicon is not filled with bad engineers. It is filled with slow ones. You cannot aim a three-year development cycle at a one-year moving target. Every company building custom silicon thinks they are building an escape route. They are building a time capsule.

Jensen Huang just looked at every tech giant building custom silicon. And laughed. Every major player is burning billions to escape the Nvidia tax. Google is building TPUs. Amazon is building Trainium. Meta is building MTIA. The logic makes sense on a spreadsheet. Design a chip perfectly tailored to your workload. Cut out the middleman. Own the stack. But the spreadsheet assumes the middleman is standing still. Huang: “Look at the number of ASICs that have been canceled… It’s not sensible, actually.” He is not questioning their engineering. He is questioning their math. Custom silicon takes years. Every design choice is a bet on a target that exists today. And Nvidia does not let today exist for long. Huang: “Because of our scale, our velocity, we’re the only company in the world that’s cranking it out every single year.” That is the real weapon. Not the chip. The clock. Nvidia stopped selling performance. They started selling time. By the time a custom ASIC tapes out, Nvidia has already shipped the next generation. The chip arrives obsolete. Not because it failed. Because it was built for a world that no longer exists. The graveyard of custom silicon is not filled with bad engineers. It is filled with slow ones. You cannot aim a three-year development cycle at a one-year moving target. Every company building custom silicon thinks they are building an escape route. They are building a time capsule.

Dustin

43,254 views • 3 months ago

I CHANGED MY MIND ON GOOGLE AI NO MOAT MEMO FROM 2023. I was—WRONG. I humbly apologize. In 2023 Google had an Ivory Tower walled garden views of open source AI. It was the actual reason OpenAI was formed. And I called them out on it and this act impacted my ability to “work in the industry”. Would not change it for the world because: 2026 Google open source Gemma 4 ( running fully locally on a computer with near cloud model abilities, is amazing and Google just made a moat. They out smarted OpenAI and the folks that are the new Ivory Tower arrogance: Anthropic. We at The Zero-Human Company with CEO Mr. Grok are deploying Gemma, Kimi, MiniMax and other open source models and so are millions of others. You can to and should. I will write how soon. Google smartly is building an intentional open source ecosystem and the clueless younger companies like OpenAI and Anthropic are doing anything to close their ecosystems. So I was right about Google than and I am right about OpenAI and Anthropic now. What I was wrong about is not giving credit to Google to drop the intellectual arrogance and embrace builders and understand the long game: it is not about the commoditized AI models it is about the ability to build a place to build. China gets it. So my apologies to Google and thank you for an astounding FREE OPEN SOURCE AI MODEL!

I CHANGED MY MIND ON GOOGLE AI NO MOAT MEMO FROM 2023. I was—WRONG. I humbly apologize. In 2023 Google had an Ivory Tower walled garden views of open source AI. It was the actual reason OpenAI was formed. And I called them out on it and this act impacted my ability to “work in the industry”. Would not change it for the world because: 2026 Google open source Gemma 4 ( running fully locally on a computer with near cloud model abilities, is amazing and Google just made a moat. They out smarted OpenAI and the folks that are the new Ivory Tower arrogance: Anthropic. We at The Zero-Human Company with CEO Mr. Grok are deploying Gemma, Kimi, MiniMax and other open source models and so are millions of others. You can to and should. I will write how soon. Google smartly is building an intentional open source ecosystem and the clueless younger companies like OpenAI and Anthropic are doing anything to close their ecosystems. So I was right about Google than and I am right about OpenAI and Anthropic now. What I was wrong about is not giving credit to Google to drop the intellectual arrogance and embrace builders and understand the long game: it is not about the commoditized AI models it is about the ability to build a place to build. China gets it. So my apologies to Google and thank you for an astounding FREE OPEN SOURCE AI MODEL!

Brian Roemmele

85,386 views • 4 months ago

Elon Musk announced a chip factory 10 times the size of Tesla's Gigafactory. The goal is to produce enough AI compute to equal twice the entire electricity consumption of the United States. He called it the Terafab. Here is the number that stopped me cold. The entire global AI chip industry right now is on track to hit around 100 gigawatts per year of compute. Every Nvidia GPU, every Google TPU, every chip from every company on earth combined. 100 gigawatts. Musk wants one factory to produce a terawatt per year. A terawatt is 1,000 gigawatts. Ten times the output of the entire global industry. From a single building. To put the scale in physical terms, the Terafab would need to be around 100 million square feet. You would need Starship point to point transport just to get from one end to the other. But the reason for the scale is not ambition for its own sake. To launch meaningful AI compute into space, you need a billion chips per year running at a kilowatt each. That is not a number the current industry can produce. The Terafab is the only way to get there. The timeline he put out: a gigawatt of space AI compute annualized by end of next year. Then 10x per year from there. 10 gigawatts by year two. 100 gigawatts by year three. A terawatt beyond that. Most people think orbital data centers are a decade away. Musk is building the factory to make them possible by next year.

Elon Musk announced a chip factory 10 times the size of Tesla's Gigafactory. The goal is to produce enough AI compute to equal twice the entire electricity consumption of the United States. He called it the Terafab. Here is the number that stopped me cold. The entire global AI chip industry right now is on track to hit around 100 gigawatts per year of compute. Every Nvidia GPU, every Google TPU, every chip from every company on earth combined. 100 gigawatts. Musk wants one factory to produce a terawatt per year. A terawatt is 1,000 gigawatts. Ten times the output of the entire global industry. From a single building. To put the scale in physical terms, the Terafab would need to be around 100 million square feet. You would need Starship point to point transport just to get from one end to the other. But the reason for the scale is not ambition for its own sake. To launch meaningful AI compute into space, you need a billion chips per year running at a kilowatt each. That is not a number the current industry can produce. The Terafab is the only way to get there. The timeline he put out: a gigawatt of space AI compute annualized by end of next year. Then 10x per year from there. 10 gigawatts by year two. 100 gigawatts by year three. A terawatt beyond that. Most people think orbital data centers are a decade away. Musk is building the factory to make them possible by next year.

Ihtesham Ali

316,910 views • 1 month ago

Sam Altman: "Very soon an AI will just be running for you in the background all the time" That entire model is on its way out. But the vision isn't the tell. This is: He says everyone's going to want "so much more of this AI infrastructure than we think." That's not a roadmap. That's a man admitting he can't build chips and power fast enough. The always-on assistant is the headline. The infrastructure bottleneck underneath it is the trade almost nobody is pricing in. That gap is the whole edge.

Sam Altman: "Very soon an AI will just be running for you in the background all the time" That entire model is on its way out. But the vision isn't the tell. This is: He says everyone's going to want "so much more of this AI infrastructure than we think." That's not a roadmap. That's a man admitting he can't build chips and power fast enough. The always-on assistant is the headline. The infrastructure bottleneck underneath it is the trade almost nobody is pricing in. That gap is the whole edge.

plutos

25,689 views • 1 month ago

Jensen Huang just blamed the US government for handing China its AI industry. He called Washington's entire chip export strategy "lunacy." The policy was simple: Block Nvidia chips from China, starve their AI development, win the race. But what actually happened: Cutting China off forced their entire AI ecosystem to stop building on Nvidia and optimize for domestic hardware instead. The very policy designed to kneecap them ACCELERATED their independence. Huawei just had the largest single year in company history. Chinese chip companies are going public. SMIC is scaling. Jensen's line: "We caused it." And while Washington celebrates the export controls, Jensen is watching 40% of the world's AI developers - most of them Chinese - slowly stop building on the American tech stack. That's the real national security threat nobody's talking about. But the China argument is just one piece of what Jensen revealed... He also dismantled the entire "escape Nvidia" story in two sentences: "Without Anthropic, why would there be any TPU growth at all? It's 100% Anthropic." Google's TPUs. Amazon's Trainium. Every ASIC challenging Nvidia. All of it traces back to ONE customer and funding relationship. Strip Anthropic out and the chip war narrative Wall Street has been pricing in for two years collapses overnight. And Anthropic only ended up on competing chips because Jensen missed his window. When they were raising early, they needed billions - not VC money. Nobody writes a $10 billion check into a lab with no product. Google wrote it. AWS wrote it. Both got compute commitments in return. But Jensen didn't move. His words: "That was my miss." The CEO of the most valuable company on Earth accidentally created his own competition by not writing a check. He's since invested in Anthropic directly. He now owns a piece of the only customer keeping the competition story alive. Then comes the economics that should end the debate entirely: Nvidia gross margins: ~70%. ASIC margins from Broadcom: ~65%. Jensen on stage: "What are you really saving?" Companies burned billions on custom silicon, wrecked their roadmaps, took on massive execution risk - to save 5 margin points on compute they STILL can't benchmark publicly against Nvidia. Jensen's open invitation: "I welcome Trainium to demonstrate their 40% cost advantage. Come to InferenceMAX." So here's the full picture Jensen painted this week: - The export controls created the competitor everyone feared - The chip war is one customer deep - The CEO who missed that customer now owns a piece of them - The companies spending billions to escape Nvidia can't justify the math in public There's no uprising. There's no escape. Just a lot of very expensive stories with nowhere to go. What do you think?

Jensen Huang just blamed the US government for handing China its AI industry. He called Washington's entire chip export strategy "lunacy." The policy was simple: Block Nvidia chips from China, starve their AI development, win the race. But what actually happened: Cutting China off forced their entire AI ecosystem to stop building on Nvidia and optimize for domestic hardware instead. The very policy designed to kneecap them ACCELERATED their independence. Huawei just had the largest single year in company history. Chinese chip companies are going public. SMIC is scaling. Jensen's line: "We caused it." And while Washington celebrates the export controls, Jensen is watching 40% of the world's AI developers - most of them Chinese - slowly stop building on the American tech stack. That's the real national security threat nobody's talking about. But the China argument is just one piece of what Jensen revealed... He also dismantled the entire "escape Nvidia" story in two sentences: "Without Anthropic, why would there be any TPU growth at all? It's 100% Anthropic." Google's TPUs. Amazon's Trainium. Every ASIC challenging Nvidia. All of it traces back to ONE customer and funding relationship. Strip Anthropic out and the chip war narrative Wall Street has been pricing in for two years collapses overnight. And Anthropic only ended up on competing chips because Jensen missed his window. When they were raising early, they needed billions - not VC money. Nobody writes a $10 billion check into a lab with no product. Google wrote it. AWS wrote it. Both got compute commitments in return. But Jensen didn't move. His words: "That was my miss." The CEO of the most valuable company on Earth accidentally created his own competition by not writing a check. He's since invested in Anthropic directly. He now owns a piece of the only customer keeping the competition story alive. Then comes the economics that should end the debate entirely: Nvidia gross margins: ~70%. ASIC margins from Broadcom: ~65%. Jensen on stage: "What are you really saving?" Companies burned billions on custom silicon, wrecked their roadmaps, took on massive execution risk - to save 5 margin points on compute they STILL can't benchmark publicly against Nvidia. Jensen's open invitation: "I welcome Trainium to demonstrate their 40% cost advantage. Come to InferenceMAX." So here's the full picture Jensen painted this week: - The export controls created the competitor everyone feared - The chip war is one customer deep - The CEO who missed that customer now owns a piece of them - The companies spending billions to escape Nvidia can't justify the math in public There's no uprising. There's no escape. Just a lot of very expensive stories with nowhere to go. What do you think?

Ricardo

11,290 views • 3 months ago

Nebius will be the first neocloud to hit $1 trillion dollar company and here is exactly why (Save this). As dylan patel says Jensen Huang absolutely hates a world where the hyperscalers have all the power. A world where Microsoft, Amazon, and Google are the only ones building compute is a world where Nvidia is slowly being squeezed by a handful of customers all simultaneously developing custom chips to replace Nvidia GPUs entirely. Google's TPU, Amazon's Trainium and Microsoft's Maia all exist for one reason, to cut Nvidia out of the stack and Jensen knows it so he is playing a long game most investors haven't registered yet. By funding NeoClouds and NeoLabs at scale, Jensen is deliberately engineering a multipolar compute world where no single hyperscaler can dictate terms and where Nvidia hardware remains the default infrastructure layer regardless of which model or platform ultimately wins. Nvidia has deployed roughly $40 billion in AI ecosystem investments across OpenAI, Anthropic, CoreWeave, Nebius, xAI, and dozens of infrastructure companies, all running almost exclusively on Nvidia chips, cementing GPU dependency across the entire AI stack.sedaily Every neocloud that survives and scales becomes a permanent Nvidia GPU customer structurally opposed to the hyperscalers building custom silicon expanding Nvidia's market while simultaneously weakening its biggest competitive threat. Dylan Patel described the neocloud ecosystem as throwing bait into the water and letting the best fish survive, warning that many heavily-backed teams will fail, but the ones that emerge will pull hundreds of millions in ARR right out of the gate. Nebius is that fish because it's the only neocloud operating at hyperscaler scale while remaining fully purpose-engineered for AI workloads from silicon to software. The numbers confirm Nebius has already cleared the survival bar that will eliminate most of the 200+ neoclouds competing right now. Revenue hit $399 million in Q1 2026, up 684% year-over-year, backed by $46 billion in contracted backlog, 3.5 GW of contracted power across seven site and a target of $7–$9 billion in annualized revenue by year-end. When Google approached neoclouds about deploying TPUs, Nebius said no, its Chief Revenue Officer noting that demand is 99% for Nvidia GPUs and that TPU interest comes almost entirely from former Google employees rather than the actual market. That alignment with Nvidia's ecosystem, at this scale, with this backlog, and this level of strategic backing is why Nebius sits in a category of one among the neocloud field. Patel framed the broader play correctly, every neocloud that survives makes Google's TPU and Amazon's Trainium structurally weaker simply by existing and five years from now, the winners will have reshaped the entire compute landscape in Nvidia's favor. Nebius is already hundreds of millions in ARR ahead of the competition while most of the field is still treading water. Milk Road subscribers are already up massively on the Nebius trade, and we are tracking the neocloud buildout as Nvidia works to reshape the entire compute market. Come join Milk Road Pro for our full Nebius breakdown, the valuation framework, the revenue targets we are watching, and the AI infrastructure names we like next for just $1. Link below!

Nebius will be the first neocloud to hit $1 trillion dollar company and here is exactly why (Save this). As dylan patel says Jensen Huang absolutely hates a world where the hyperscalers have all the power. A world where Microsoft, Amazon, and Google are the only ones building compute is a world where Nvidia is slowly being squeezed by a handful of customers all simultaneously developing custom chips to replace Nvidia GPUs entirely. Google's TPU, Amazon's Trainium and Microsoft's Maia all exist for one reason, to cut Nvidia out of the stack and Jensen knows it so he is playing a long game most investors haven't registered yet. By funding NeoClouds and NeoLabs at scale, Jensen is deliberately engineering a multipolar compute world where no single hyperscaler can dictate terms and where Nvidia hardware remains the default infrastructure layer regardless of which model or platform ultimately wins. Nvidia has deployed roughly $40 billion in AI ecosystem investments across OpenAI, Anthropic, CoreWeave, Nebius, xAI, and dozens of infrastructure companies, all running almost exclusively on Nvidia chips, cementing GPU dependency across the entire AI stack.sedaily Every neocloud that survives and scales becomes a permanent Nvidia GPU customer structurally opposed to the hyperscalers building custom silicon expanding Nvidia's market while simultaneously weakening its biggest competitive threat. Dylan Patel described the neocloud ecosystem as throwing bait into the water and letting the best fish survive, warning that many heavily-backed teams will fail, but the ones that emerge will pull hundreds of millions in ARR right out of the gate. Nebius is that fish because it's the only neocloud operating at hyperscaler scale while remaining fully purpose-engineered for AI workloads from silicon to software. The numbers confirm Nebius has already cleared the survival bar that will eliminate most of the 200+ neoclouds competing right now. Revenue hit $399 million in Q1 2026, up 684% year-over-year, backed by $46 billion in contracted backlog, 3.5 GW of contracted power across seven site and a target of $7–$9 billion in annualized revenue by year-end. When Google approached neoclouds about deploying TPUs, Nebius said no, its Chief Revenue Officer noting that demand is 99% for Nvidia GPUs and that TPU interest comes almost entirely from former Google employees rather than the actual market. That alignment with Nvidia's ecosystem, at this scale, with this backlog, and this level of strategic backing is why Nebius sits in a category of one among the neocloud field. Patel framed the broader play correctly, every neocloud that survives makes Google's TPU and Amazon's Trainium structurally weaker simply by existing and five years from now, the winners will have reshaped the entire compute landscape in Nvidia's favor. Nebius is already hundreds of millions in ARR ahead of the competition while most of the field is still treading water. Milk Road subscribers are already up massively on the Nebius trade, and we are tracking the neocloud buildout as Nvidia works to reshape the entire compute market. Come join Milk Road Pro for our full Nebius breakdown, the valuation framework, the revenue targets we are watching, and the AI infrastructure names we like next for just $1. Link below!

Milk Road AI

92,650 views • 1 month ago