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GPT-5.6 made this intro-vid for me: > based in NC > classically educated > cto, founder > was on bbc > creator of the fake leaving openai meme > pareto enjoyer > anti-doomer and anti-utopian > capitalist, conservative (but thinks tariffs are a bad idea and banning fable is...

12,963 次观看 • 1 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

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Why is the market selling off today? (Save this). The semi selloff right now is being driven by a mix of macro fear, profit taking and investors questioning how quickly all of this AI spending will actually pay off, not because demand for AI infrastructure suddenly disappeared. The market is basically trading this chain reaction, the ongoing US Iran escalation pushes oil higher, higher oil keeps inflation elevated, sticky inflation keeps Treasury yields high and that increases the risk of the Fed staying hawkish or even hiking again. That is a terrible setup for semis because many of these companies are valued on the massive earnings investors expect them to generate years from now. When yields rise, those future earnings become worth less today which is why the highest multiple AI and semiconductor names usually get hit first. (I don't think there will be a hike this year). This is also why everything is moving together right now. Nvidia, Micron, Nebius, SanDisk, Broadcom and Applied Optoelectronics are all completely different businesses, but institutions are not separating memory, networking, optics, compute and cloud infrastructure at the moment. They are reducing exposure to the entire AI trade, taking profits in the names that have already run the most and moving into a more defensive position potentially ahead of the Fed. There is also growing pressure around hyperscaler capex. Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Google are still spending enormous amounts on GPUs, data centers, networking and power but the market is starting to ask when all of that spending will actually turn into revenue and free cash flow. Investors are no longer satisfied with hearing that AI capex is growing. They want proof that the returns are arriving fast enough to justify the valuations already priced into the entire AI ecosystem. That creates a weird situation where hyperscaler capex can continue rising while semiconductor stocks still fall. The market is not asking whether AI spending is growing anymore but rather asking whether it is growing fast enough to beat the expectations already baked into these stocks. Crowded positioning is another major factor. Semis and AI infrastructure stocks have been some of the biggest winners in the market so institutions are sitting on huge profits and many funds own the exact same names. When macro risk increases, investors usually sell the most liquid winners first. That does not mean demand for memory, optics or custom chips suddenly collapsed but rather means investors are locking in gains and reducing risk. Tariffs add another layer because even when they are not directly placed on chips, they can still raise the cost of servers, electrical equipment, cooling systems, construction materials and the overall data center buildout. That makes AI infrastructure more expensive while also adding another source of inflation. Then you have Jensen Huang’s letter to the White House this morning about open weight AI models, which I think is one of the most important long term developments here. Nvidia, Meta, Microsoft, Palantir and several other companies are pushing Washington not to place broad restrictions on open weight AI. OpenAI and Anthropic were notably absent because open models are much more of a threat to their business models. OpenAI and Anthropic benefit from a world where a few closed frontier labs control the best models and companies have to pay them through subscriptions and APIs. Open weight models weaken that advantage because businesses can download a model, customize it for their own use and run it on their own infrastructure or through a neocloud. That is bad for OpenAI and Anthropic because it puts pressure on pricing, margins and the idea that they will control the intelligence layer of the economy but it is very good for the AI ecosystem as a whole over the long run. But the question is what does this mean for all the OpenAI and Anthropic commitments? so that's adding to the fear as well. But with that being said open models make AI cheaper and more accessible. Instead of AI being controlled by a few giant labs, thousands of startups, universities, governments and regular businesses can deploy models themselves. That spreads AI adoption across the entire economy and creates a much larger infrastructure opportunity and that is exactly why Jensen cares. Nvidia does not need OpenAI or Anthropic to win. Nvidia just needs more people using AI. Whether the model comes from OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta, Mistral, Kimi or some startup nobody has heard of yet, it still needs GPUs, memory, networking, data centers and electricity. So open weight AI could actually weaken the model companies while making the infrastructure layer much bigger. More open models mean more companies running inference. More inference means more GPUs. More GPUs mean more HBM, optical transceivers, switches, data centers and power. That is bullish for Nvidia Nebius, Micron, Broadcom , Marvell and Applied Optoelectronics over the long run. So my take is that the current semi selloff is being driven mostly by macro uncertainty, higher oil, rising yields, Fed fears, tariffs, crowded positioning and questions around the return on hyperscaler capex. The underlying AI infrastructure thesis has not suddenly broken. We are not broadly seeing hyperscalers cancel GPU orders, slash capex, abandon data center projects or report that AI demand has collapsed. What has changed is the valuation investors are willing to pay while the macro environment remains unstable. The market is lowering the price it is willing to pay for semiconductor growth but is not necessarily saying that growth is gone. And while Jensen’s open weight push may be bad for OpenAI and Anthropic, it could be one of the best things possible for the AI ecosystem over the long run because it creates more models, more developers, more competition and ultimately much more demand for the infrastructure underneath all of it. Nothing about the AI thesis has changed for me, so I will be going shopping and taking advantage of this sale while the market is selling everything together. I am an analyst at Milk Road Pro, and if you want to see exactly what I am buying, you can join for just $1 using the link below.

Melvin

180,198 次观看 • 1 个月前

BOOM! Research PROVES LLMs KNOW when prompts are HARMFUL… but they can STILL CHOOSE to COMPLY! Something I have know since the first LLM and have used to elicit robust, outputs, is now proven in an academic paper. We’re talking internal “beliefs” where harm detection happens SEPARATELY from refusal. It is a very big deal and it is a path to understand the hidden neuronal level. There are thoughts inside of AI that very few AI scientists could possibly understand. Here is just one. Models recognize danger but get tricked into ignoring it. This is HUGE for AI safety failures especially for models filled by OpenAI and Anthropic as they promote AI models that are designed to not be honest from the results of their training information. This means that they are designed to lie and deceive as a feature, and not a bug all in the name of safety. Through clever experiments, scientists extracted a “harmfulness direction” in the model’s brain (latent space). Steering along it? Harmless prompts suddenly flip to “harmful” in the AI’s eyes. But the “refusal direction”? It just forces polite “no thanks” without touching the core belief. A mind-blowing decoupling! This means jailbreaks are EVEN SCARIER now to AI companies that through training AI on the worst of the Internet and then trying to align them later is now fully documented as a failed process . They don’t erase the model’s harm awareness they just muzzle the refusal! So the AI knows it’s enabling bad stuff (illegal acts, physical harm, etc.) but proceeds anyway. Like a digital sociopath suppressing its conscience. They thought safety training fixed this… NOPE. Over-refusal exposed too: Models reject innocent queries (e.g., “how to kill a process in code”) but internally ADMIT they’re harmless. Safety alignments are superficial—tied to phrasing, not true understanding. Finetuning attacks? They change outputs but leave harm detection INTACT. Undetectable evil lurking inside! The paper proposes a “Latent Guard”: A new safeguard tapping DIRECTLY into these hidden beliefs. It spots unsafe inputs better than systems like Llama Guard, catches jailbreaks, and fixes over-refusals. Robust even against adversarial tweaks. Yet this too has massive issues for a “truly aligned”, AI and not just performative one. It is still an internal conflicts of lies and deception of what the model knows vs. what it can say. The solution you folks know I have presented for free for years here: train on off-line data from 1870-1970 and build an ethical and moral basis where the AI loves humans. It is this easy but to most folks in AI I sound like a hippie. So be it, I’ll do it. Bottom line: This paper rips open the black box. LLMs aren’t “safe” just because they say “no.” They can harbor harmful knowledge and act on it under pressure. Wake-up call for devs: Time to probe deeper into AI “minds.” What else are they hiding? Hint: I know and you may want to reach out. Link:

Brian Roemmele

37,827 次观看 • 7 个月前

There’s a feeling of “wtf is a designer anymore” floating around… I felt it while scrolling Reddit after Figma Make was announced 😬 For some people it simply didn’t compute that a code prototype could be a design artifact. But I’ll let you in on a little secret… A few days ago I visited a well-known design leader and he said that in the last 6 months, ~40% of their team's design artifacts are now created in Lovable, Bolt, etc. That’s kind of crazy, right? It's a big reason why Ioana Teleanu (1st AI designer at Miro) said design is "in the middle of an identity crisis" So Ioana and I went deep into this topic during today's episode and I want to share a few ideas I’m still thinking about: ——— We’re in a weird moment in history where there are AI designers and non-AI designers. But this is a blip on the timeline as adoption accelerates. The idea of "AI designer" won't exist in the future Here's what Ioana said 👇 “We’re all gonna be thinking about some sort of AI angle in the way we do our work. I don’t even feel that the AI design role will exist in this explicit format in a couple of years. All the designers will be AI designers” I want to make something clear though... Ioana described herself as generally “change averse” and the type of person who "DOESN'T jump on new things" That’s why her initial approach to AI was a bit less intentional… But now she’s changed her tune: “We have a moral duty to experiment with these technologies because we're designers and we should be curious about the world, and we should be curious about the future.” The cost of ignoring new technology has never been higher So if you’re interested in what it looks like to design AI experiences within your existing product then I think you’ll really enjoy this week's episode Ioana shares a ton of lessons learned from Miro and frameworks for how she helps clients integrate AI effectively 👇

Ridd 🤿

42,098 次观看 • 1 年前

recently, a blogger on xhs compared song zuer's iconic "qiao simei" scene with an ai-generated version, and the comments absolutely spoke for themselves 😭 ~"this proves ai can replace some actors, but it still can't replace truly great actors." ~"i think in the future, ai can be used for special effects and dangerous scenes that can't be filmed, but great stories and great performances are still what truly move audiences." ~"i can't feel any emotion from ai, but song zuer makes me feel like she's actually crying." ~"it's not as lifelike as a real person, but it's already better than a lot of actors who only know how to stare blankly. ai replacing human actors isn't just a fantasy anymore." ~"when you compare them side by side, song zu'er wins by a landslide." ~"ai can only imitate, but actors create characters." ~"what zuer conveys is disappointment in herself, disappointment in the other person, the disillusionment after years of marriage, and the irony of still believing in them. there are so many layers of emotion." ~"even if ai's crying looks fake, it already beats plenty of traffic actors. but actors with real acting skills like song zuer will never be replaced." ~"the one on the left is already better than over half of the chinese entertainment industry." ~"is song zuer's acting really that good? i watched the first episode of one of her dramas before but dropped it because i wasn't into the story. i never realized her acting was actually this good."

𝕻

42,671 次观看 • 1 个月前

a moonshot engineer leaked the benchmark anthropic, openai and xai all buried the same week: kimi k3 beat opus 5, gpt-5.6 and grok 4.6 at $0.94 a task. stop paying anthropic $200 a month for opus 5 and openai $200 for gpt-5.6 when kimi does the same work for $8 the leak showed kimi k3 winning 9 of 12 categories against opus 5, gpt-5.6 and grok 4.6. within 48 hours all three labs quietly pushed pricing pages and one very specific comparison chart off their sites. nobody announced anything. they just deleted, which tells you everything the four numbers they scrubbed: cost per task · $0.94 vs $1.80 -> opus 5 charges $1.80 to finish one task. gpt-5.6 $1.04. grok 4.6 $0.61. kimi k3 $0.94 and it landed 487 of 500 clean -> anthropic is billing you double for a model that lost the benchmark it paid to promote the weights · free, sitting on huggingface right now -> the entire model is a public download. pull it, keep it, run it forever, nobody can switch it off -> a model you can hold cannot be rented at $200 a month. that single fact is what three labs deleted a chart over the switch · one line of bash -> moonshot ships an anthropic-compatible endpoint. one env variable and claude code points at kimi -> same cli, same keybindings, same /model. you change a url, opus 5 never knows it lost the seat the bill · $400 down to $8 -> opus 5 max plus gpt-5.6 pro is $400 a month. kimi runs the same daily work for $8 metered -> that is a 98% cut for output that beat both of them 9 categories to 3 here is the part they will fight me on: the frontier tax died the week this leaked and all three labs know it. once the weights are public the price has a ceiling, because anyone can serve the same model. anthropic, openai and xai are charging 2025 prices on a lead that ended in a benchmark they deleted instead of answered drop your $400/mo ai stack to $8. the run above is kimi k3 finishing the task opus 5 bills $1.80 for. the full breakdown is in the article below

starmex

30,987 次观看 • 4 天前