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Great to be back at another stellar Modular developer conference: #ModCon2026! Thanks to tim for leading a deeply engaging discussion on AI infrastructure, the economics of training and inference, and the looming massive impact of open models. Takeaway: Efficient open models can achieve 90% of frontier performance at 10%...

11,749 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад •via X (Twitter)

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learned a lot from this conversation with Simon Mo and Matt Bornstein. biggest takeaways for me: -there are a lot of reasons why we should like open-weight models. a lot of these arguments stop at handwavy things like "what if the labs stop releasing frontier models to the public" or "it's lower cost." but simon's position as lead maintainer of vLLM and CEO of Inferact give him authority to talk about some of the other, more interesting and concrete reasons to pay attention to open-weight models, namely that they allow end-users to calibrate latency / other performance metrics with way more customizability than what any of the frontier closed-source labs offer (and without the fear that your job might be met with a refusal at some random point where you're deep in a 2 hour job) -re: the above point...for this reason, a lot of US companies (inferact included!) choose to use open-weight models over their closed-source alternatives. this also isn't limited to internal workloads / research - on a recent a16z podcast the team at Decagon spoke about how something like 90% of their customer service ai agents run on open-weight models that they've fine-tuned. -we should really appreciate how many companies/teams came out researchers fascinated by the wave of very small open-weight models that were being distilled from e.g. gpt-3.5 and earlier models in 2022/2023 (prior to the release of chatGPT!). these small models motivated the development of pagedattention, which then led to vlmm/inferact (at other layers of the stack with similar origin stories, you can look at teams like openrouter or ollama). in other words, we have open-weight models to thank for a bunch of the orchestration infra we now rely on. i think yet another, indirect, way we can point to open-source/weight infra pushing the frontier forward. anyway, a lot more in this convo, it was a lot of fun!

Elena

12,922 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

Chamath is making one of the most important business arguments of 2026. Half of large US companies right now cannot generate returns that exceed their cost of capital, which has normalized back to its long run average of 8 to 11%. Another one in seven companies globally is stuck generating persistent returns between 1 and 5% and most businesses don't have room for error and in this environment walks every frontier AI lab saying the same thing, give us your data, your workflows, your processes and our model will make everything better. And companies by the millions said yes. What they didn't fully account for is what happens on the other side of that door. Every time an employee runs a query through a frontier model API, the prompt goes through external servers, workflows, customer data, pricing logic, internal processes, all of it transmitted through a third party. As Alex Karp said companies are spending on tokens while handing over the exact proprietary advantages that make their business worth owning. Microsoft blocked internal use of Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 but over its 30-day data retention policy and the largest software company in the world decided a frontier model's data handling was too risky for its own employees. A US government action revoked access to another frontier model for foreign nationals overnight. Now here's where the cost math becomes impossible to ignore. Deutsche Bank calculated a roughly 65x cost gap between frontier models like Claude Fable 5 at ~$3.25 per task and open-source alternatives at ~$0.05. For 90% of everyday enterprise tasks, performance is comparable. Open-weight models now match closed frontier systems on core agent tasks at roughly one-tenth the cost, a high-volume deployment that costs $250/day on Claude runs at $12/day on an open-source equivalent. Chamath Palihapitiya tested this directly by running a standard enterprise code migration task through an orchestration layer wrapping an open-source model came in 16.4x cheaper than using a frontier model directly.

Milk Road AI

282,224 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад