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Greg Brockman says OpenAI started with a belief that AGI would come from ideas, not compute But by 2017, scaling became the clearest path: 2x compute made agents 2x better 10 GW is a drop in the bucket compared to the compute needed for the AGI vision

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89,012 görüntüleme • 10 ay önce •via X (Twitter)

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OpenAI initially focused on ideas for AGI, but empirical results in 2017 showed scaling compute was key. Seeing 2x improvements in DOTA 2 with 2x scale, they pushed limits, advising chip startups on future models. Internalizing compute became vital to realizing their vision.
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OpenAI initially focused on ideas for AGI, but empirical results in 2017 showed scaling compute was key. Seeing 2x improvements in DOTA 2 with 2x scale, they pushed limits, advising chip startups on future models. Internalizing compute became vital to realizing their vision.

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OpenAI President, Greg Brockman: We are moving to a world where GDP growth is driven by the amount of compute available openAI has tripled its compute annually, yet remains so compute-constrained "every time we want to launch something new, we fight over compute"
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OpenAI President, Greg Brockman: We are moving to a world where GDP growth is driven by the amount of compute available openAI has tripled its compute annually, yet remains so compute-constrained "every time we want to launch something new, we fight over compute"

Haider.

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Greg Brockman on AI-designed chips and the future of compute >openai used their own models to design their chips, faster and probably better than human engineers >in the future everyone would have an agent that works 24/7 for them. Restriction: compute, at the moment
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Greg Brockman on AI-designed chips and the future of compute >openai used their own models to design their chips, faster and probably better than human engineers >in the future everyone would have an agent that works 24/7 for them. Restriction: compute, at the moment

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Sergey Brin on Scaling Laws vs. algorithms: “Compute is the dessert. Algorithms are the main course. Algorithmic progress has outpaced compute and data scaling over the last decade.” This echoes Ilya’s view: scaling what we have will keep leading to improvements, but some key algorithmic breakthrough is still missing for AGI/ASI.
1:25

Sergey Brin on Scaling Laws vs. algorithms: “Compute is the dessert. Algorithms are the main course. Algorithmic progress has outpaced compute and data scaling over the last decade.” This echoes Ilya’s view: scaling what we have will keep leading to improvements, but some key algorithmic breakthrough is still missing for AGI/ASI.

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“There are more companies than ideas by quite a bit. Compute is large enough such that it's not obvious that you need that much more compute to prove some idea. AlexNet was built on 2 GPUs. The transformer was built on 8 to 64 GPUs. Which would be, what, 2 GPUs of today? You could argue that o1 reasoning was not the most compute heavy thing in the world. For research, you definitely need some amount of compute, but it's far from obvious that you need the absolutely largest amount of compute. If everyone is within the same paradigm, then compute becomes one of the big differentiators.” Ilya Sutskever
2:03

“There are more companies than ideas by quite a bit. Compute is large enough such that it's not obvious that you need that much more compute to prove some idea. AlexNet was built on 2 GPUs. The transformer was built on 8 to 64 GPUs. Which would be, what, 2 GPUs of today? You could argue that o1 reasoning was not the most compute heavy thing in the world. For research, you definitely need some amount of compute, but it's far from obvious that you need the absolutely largest amount of compute. If everyone is within the same paradigm, then compute becomes one of the big differentiators.” Ilya Sutskever

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Elon Musk gives the xAI scaling law behind Grok 5: 10x more compute, 2x intelligence "In terms of training Grok 5, you're scaling up your supercluster in Colossus in Memphis." "If you throw twice as much compute at it, do you get a 10% better model, do you get 100% better model?" "I think there's a natural logarithmic function associated with the amount of compute." "Say for argument's sake, 10x more compute will double the intelligence." "That still means that you go from 100 IQ to 200 IQ. Still pretty big deal." Most people talk about compute like it is a budget line. Elon is talking about it like a conversion rate: capital into intelligence. If that curve holds, the company with the biggest cluster is not just buying faster training runs. It is buying jumps in capability that feel discontinuous to everyone else. - Elon Musk (Elon Musk), CEO of xAI, on All-In Summit (The All-In Podcast)
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Elon Musk gives the xAI scaling law behind Grok 5: 10x more compute, 2x intelligence "In terms of training Grok 5, you're scaling up your supercluster in Colossus in Memphis." "If you throw twice as much compute at it, do you get a 10% better model, do you get 100% better model?" "I think there's a natural logarithmic function associated with the amount of compute." "Say for argument's sake, 10x more compute will double the intelligence." "That still means that you go from 100 IQ to 200 IQ. Still pretty big deal." Most people talk about compute like it is a budget line. Elon is talking about it like a conversion rate: capital into intelligence. If that curve holds, the company with the biggest cluster is not just buying faster training runs. It is buying jumps in capability that feel discontinuous to everyone else. - Elon Musk (Elon Musk), CEO of xAI, on All-In Summit (The All-In Podcast)

Karl Mehta

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OpenAI President, Greg Brockman: By 2030, AI will enable a world of "material abundance" but also one of "absolute compute scarcity" "the real bottleneck isn't software, it's infrastructure" So we want to increase the intelligence, but also the availability of that intelligence
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OpenAI President, Greg Brockman: By 2030, AI will enable a world of "material abundance" but also one of "absolute compute scarcity" "the real bottleneck isn't software, it's infrastructure" So we want to increase the intelligence, but also the availability of that intelligence

Haider.

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Elon Musk super bullish on compute: 10x more will 2x intelligence, it continues to scale all the way up to where most of the power of the sun is harnessed for compute & then ultimately most of the power of the galaxy, a Kardashev Type II, Kardashev Type III scale compute. $nvda
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Elon Musk super bullish on compute: 10x more will 2x intelligence, it continues to scale all the way up to where most of the power of the sun is harnessed for compute & then ultimately most of the power of the galaxy, a Kardashev Type II, Kardashev Type III scale compute. $nvda

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AI agents are coming and they need serious compute. On the CES keynote stage, OpenAI President and Co-founder Greg Brockman (Greg Brockman) joined AMD Chair and CEO Lisa Su to share how AI is evolving from simple prompts to always-on agents transforming healthcare, enterprise, and scientific discovery. AMD Instinct MI455X is built for what comes next.
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AI agents are coming and they need serious compute. On the CES keynote stage, OpenAI President and Co-founder Greg Brockman (Greg Brockman) joined AMD Chair and CEO Lisa Su to share how AI is evolving from simple prompts to always-on agents transforming healthcare, enterprise, and scientific discovery. AMD Instinct MI455X is built for what comes next.

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OpenAI and Anthropic can take compute which costs them $15b a GW, and turn it into $50b+ of revenue. In order to get the credit to build their datacenters, most neoclouds have already signed long term contracts to supply compute at these $15b/GW rates. However, Meta and SpaceX, who have a GW+ of discretionary compute supported by their own balance sheet, can take advantage of this surge in compute prices and sell short-term contracts at the much higher rate that the leading labs (who are best able to monetize this compute) are willing to bid for.
1:37

OpenAI and Anthropic can take compute which costs them $15b a GW, and turn it into $50b+ of revenue. In order to get the credit to build their datacenters, most neoclouds have already signed long term contracts to supply compute at these $15b/GW rates. However, Meta and SpaceX, who have a GW+ of discretionary compute supported by their own balance sheet, can take advantage of this surge in compute prices and sell short-term contracts at the much higher rate that the leading labs (who are best able to monetize this compute) are willing to bid for.

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My conversation with Sam Altman (Sam Altman), CEO of OpenAI. We discuss: - Kimi, distillation, and open source - OpenAI's compute bets - The Hugging Face incident - What happens after AGI - Raising kids in an age of abundant intelligence - And much more Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 4:10 The Race for Compute 14:24 A Sci-Fi Cyber Incident 16:14 The Promise and Risks of AGI 23:27 How AI Will Change Jobs 29:38 Sam’s Vision for a Personal AI 35:02 Robotics, ChatGPT, and What Comes Next 44:39 The Weight of Leading OpenAI 51:36 OpenAI’s Biggest Lessons
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My conversation with Sam Altman (Sam Altman), CEO of OpenAI. We discuss: - Kimi, distillation, and open source - OpenAI's compute bets - The Hugging Face incident - What happens after AGI - Raising kids in an age of abundant intelligence - And much more Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 4:10 The Race for Compute 14:24 A Sci-Fi Cyber Incident 16:14 The Promise and Risks of AGI 23:27 How AI Will Change Jobs 29:38 Sam’s Vision for a Personal AI 35:02 Robotics, ChatGPT, and What Comes Next 44:39 The Weight of Leading OpenAI 51:36 OpenAI’s Biggest Lessons

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>be openai cofounder >literally admit you're broke af >"we had to make painful sacrifices" >sacrificed actual AGI research >to profit from deepfake slop served to zoomers >"for the benefit of humanity" >but we didn’t have enough compute to keep things going... >“we need MORE compute!” >but also we don’t have any cash lol LMAOOOOO
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>be openai cofounder >literally admit you're broke af >"we had to make painful sacrifices" >sacrificed actual AGI research >to profit from deepfake slop served to zoomers >"for the benefit of humanity" >but we didn’t have enough compute to keep things going... >“we need MORE compute!” >but also we don’t have any cash lol LMAOOOOO

NIK

445,809 görüntüleme • 8 ay önce

Greg Brockman talks about when OpenAI first realized that AGI can't be achieved with "Non-Profit" status and the decided to abandon its Non-Profit roots. "In 2017, we started to think very hard about, first of all, how do we really achieve the mission? How do we actually build an AGI? What will that look like? And we started to do the math on compute. You start to realize that it is going to take a big computer. We came across a company called Cerebras, which was building a unique piece of computing hardware. The kind of computer that they were promising, we realized, was going to be far advanced from where our compute calculations looked. As you start to realize, if we could buy a lot of those computers, we could actually probably succeed at building an AGI. If we could get exclusive access to Cerebras, that could give us an overwhelming advantage. If we could buy very large data centers, that could be something unique as well. The thing about nonprofit fundraising is that I think there is essentially a cap to what is possible there. And so Elon, Sam, Ilya, and I all agreed that the only path forward for OpenAI, and the only path to achieve the mission, was to create a for-profit entity associated with OpenAI in some form. And so, we were committed to that direction. That is something that we knew was the only way to achieve the mission." --- From "The Knowledge Project Podcast" YT Channel (link in comment)
0:55

Greg Brockman talks about when OpenAI first realized that AGI can't be achieved with "Non-Profit" status and the decided to abandon its Non-Profit roots. "In 2017, we started to think very hard about, first of all, how do we really achieve the mission? How do we actually build an AGI? What will that look like? And we started to do the math on compute. You start to realize that it is going to take a big computer. We came across a company called Cerebras, which was building a unique piece of computing hardware. The kind of computer that they were promising, we realized, was going to be far advanced from where our compute calculations looked. As you start to realize, if we could buy a lot of those computers, we could actually probably succeed at building an AGI. If we could get exclusive access to Cerebras, that could give us an overwhelming advantage. If we could buy very large data centers, that could be something unique as well. The thing about nonprofit fundraising is that I think there is essentially a cap to what is possible there. And so Elon, Sam, Ilya, and I all agreed that the only path forward for OpenAI, and the only path to achieve the mission, was to create a for-profit entity associated with OpenAI in some form. And so, we were committed to that direction. That is something that we knew was the only way to achieve the mission." --- From "The Knowledge Project Podcast" YT Channel (link in comment)

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