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groin_rm.mp3

28,736 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад •via X (Twitter)

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 The Navy is bombing Iran's radars and burning $5 million interceptors on $12,000 drones, and the strait's fate is being decided at insurance desks instead Bobby Jones, who once commanded a destroyer's combat systems in these waters, sees a stacked game of chicken. Iran reportedly warned Israel off a Hezbollah hill in Lebanon, Israel walked in hours later, and Tehran did nothing. Meanwhile Iran calls Washington's bluff by striking Kuwait and the Emirates the moment the American response stopped. He credits the original launcher strike as measured and correct, intelligence said mines were about to go in, and mines end freedom of navigation. Where he parts ways is what followed. Strikes on coastal radars are interesting but not compelling, because area denial doesn't require hitting anything, only firing, and no tanker captain or Lloyd's underwriter takes an all-clear from Washington after every previous one ended with a ship hit. His verdict is that no conventional military solution exists anymore. Fifteen-plus bases struck means no logistics to sustain a reopening, munitions spent in the first month can't be replaced, and the counterattacks land on Gulf hosts who bet on American protection and got bombed instead. He expects the American footprint to shrink from fifteen bases to perhaps five, with Bahrain the loss that would matter most. The cost he keeps returning to is human. Sailors circling a thousand miles at sea, dodging missiles, eating badly, and never once told by Washington why: "American servicemen and women can endure a heck of a lot if they know the reason"

Mario Nawfal

69,535 просмотров • 1 час назад