he turned $4k into 15x on weather markets. i reverse engineered his strategy. every day Polymarket runs the daily high temperature for 48 cities, 11 positions each: will be 14°, will be 15°, and so on. from morning to early afternoon the temperature only goes up. the moment the... airport station prints 15, the "will be 14" position is dead. the high is already above it, no way back. but the market doesn't react instantly. there are still other people's YES bids sitting in the book, people who placed them in the morning at 30-80c and went to get coffee. that second, he sells them YES, meaning he buys NO at 20-85c. a few seconds later he dumps that NO at 99c to the bots that buy up the last cent. that's how he arbs the weather market. since june 1 he has done this 2,575 times. one loss, $34. a typical entry: $170 in, $5 profit, money free again 9 seconds later. rarely more than $1.5k working at once, $4k at the peak. on that $4k he made $63k in 98 days. the biggest profit comes from dying favorites: the position is cheap (60c), there are hundreds of dollars in bids in the book, and one station reading turns them into trash. then the bot buys out the whole book cheap at once and seconds later sells the positions to the bots at 99c. these are 18% of his trades and 44% of his total profit. NYC, june 25. the 82-83°F position was at 54c, the station printed 84. he took $1,470 of NO at 66c, sold it 9 seconds later at 99, +$732 from one trade. how to repeat it? the description of every temperature market has a link to the station it resolves on, like the same report comes from the api, free, no key: /api/data/metar?ids=UUWW the day's high on the station moved above a position = the position is dead. you sell into its YES bids and immediately dump the NO at 99. reports come out at :20 and :50 but get published with a 15 second to 5 minute delay, so you have to poll every second. you don't watch all 11 positions, you watch the favorite from 11:00 to 15:00 local time of the city. that's the only place the bid stacks are. fees are on for these markets. he doesn't pay them at his tier, you will: about 0.4c per contract against 2.6c he captures on a typical trade. it eats a chunk but not the trade. competition: four bots fight over these markets and 5 seconds after the first one the book is empty. this morning i caught three of these moments live, Moscow and Jeddah. other bots beat him to it. so the first thing in this strategy is to build your own setup that's faster than the rest, or at least as fast. then the total profit gets split five ways. the trader's wallet: hightemptation on Polymarketshow more

may.crypto {🦅}

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