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hedge funds pay $50,000/year for data that's been free on SEC. gov since 2003 Form 4 filings every stock purchase a CEO makes, every share a CFO sells, filed within 48 hours and sitting there searchable for free nobody built a screener around it for two decades one guy...

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Livsun

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10,172 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад •via X (Twitter)

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since 1993, hedge funds over $100M have been legally required to publish every position they hold 4 times a year, exact stocks and exact share counts, all of it free on the SEC website i spent 6 months asking one question with python: what happens when 4 or more separate funds all show up with new positions in the same small-cap stock in the same quarter - before the price has moved? backtested 2,400 signals from 2019 to 2025 67% win rate, 18.4% average gain per trade, 31 day average hold the reason the edge exists is the same reason the funds themselves can't collect it an $8B fund building a position in a $400M company moves the price against itself the second it starts buying so they file 45 days after the fact, the window opens, and nobody's standing in it running it live since february - 11 closed trades, 9 winners, +31% while the s&p returned 8% in the same period setup cost: a free API key from SEC EDGAR and one saturday morning this isn't an edge i found by being smart. it's an edge that only exists because the people publishing it are too large to use it themselves Bookmark before it get losted the filing requirement has been law since the clinton administration, sitting in a public federal database for 30 years most retail traders pay monthly subscriptions to signal services built by people who just learned to read a government XML file the data was never hidden. it just required knowing where to look
0:55

since 1993, hedge funds over $100M have been legally required to publish every position they hold 4 times a year, exact stocks and exact share counts, all of it free on the SEC website i spent 6 months asking one question with python: what happens when 4 or more separate funds all show up with new positions in the same small-cap stock in the same quarter - before the price has moved? backtested 2,400 signals from 2019 to 2025 67% win rate, 18.4% average gain per trade, 31 day average hold the reason the edge exists is the same reason the funds themselves can't collect it an $8B fund building a position in a $400M company moves the price against itself the second it starts buying so they file 45 days after the fact, the window opens, and nobody's standing in it running it live since february - 11 closed trades, 9 winners, +31% while the s&p returned 8% in the same period setup cost: a free API key from SEC EDGAR and one saturday morning this isn't an edge i found by being smart. it's an edge that only exists because the people publishing it are too large to use it themselves Bookmark before it get losted the filing requirement has been law since the clinton administration, sitting in a public federal database for 30 years most retail traders pay monthly subscriptions to signal services built by people who just learned to read a government XML file the data was never hidden. it just required knowing where to look

Livsun

32,072 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

a quant scraped free SEC filings for 3 years and outperformed 94% of mutual fund managers zero tools, zero credentials - just a government database that's existed free since 1994 every hedge fund over $100M is legally required to disclose exact holdings within 45 days of quarter-end it's called a 13F - and citadel, renaissance, two sigma all file one every quarter most retail traders have never heard of it he built one model: > rank stocks by institutional accumulation across rolling 2 quarters > weight by position-size growth, filter below $2B market cap > rebalance quarterly, nothing else backtest 2010-2024: 22.1% annualized. SPY returned 13.9% same window data is on sec. gov - free, updated quarterly, no API key python to implement: under 100 lines they didn't hide this - it's literally a government mandate you've been buying alerts, scanners, and newsletters meanwhile the edge was sitting in a free .gov filing the whole time save this not smarter - just reading the right website
0:32

a quant scraped free SEC filings for 3 years and outperformed 94% of mutual fund managers zero tools, zero credentials - just a government database that's existed free since 1994 every hedge fund over $100M is legally required to disclose exact holdings within 45 days of quarter-end it's called a 13F - and citadel, renaissance, two sigma all file one every quarter most retail traders have never heard of it he built one model: > rank stocks by institutional accumulation across rolling 2 quarters > weight by position-size growth, filter below $2B market cap > rebalance quarterly, nothing else backtest 2010-2024: 22.1% annualized. SPY returned 13.9% same window data is on sec. gov - free, updated quarterly, no API key python to implement: under 100 lines they didn't hide this - it's literally a government mandate you've been buying alerts, scanners, and newsletters meanwhile the edge was sitting in a free .gov filing the whole time save this not smarter - just reading the right website

Livsun

17,436 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

hedge funds spend $50M a year building a strategy they're legally required to publish every quarter that's not an irony - it's an opening 13F filings: public, free, every position they held at quarter-end take two filings three months apart, diff the positions you see exactly what they bought and when they entered now backtest those entry conditions against price data from same window what signal was live when they entered? volatility spike? momentum break? volume anomaly? you're not modeling the market. you're reading a solved exam renaissance, citadel, two sigma - required by law to publish this every 90 days most retail traders have never opened a 13F in their life people who figured this out aren't smarter. they just stopped asking "what should i buy?" and started asking "what did they buy, and why then?" Bookmark this knowledge and learn it ASAP answer sheet has been public since 1978. nobody told retail to open it
1:12

hedge funds spend $50M a year building a strategy they're legally required to publish every quarter that's not an irony - it's an opening 13F filings: public, free, every position they held at quarter-end take two filings three months apart, diff the positions you see exactly what they bought and when they entered now backtest those entry conditions against price data from same window what signal was live when they entered? volatility spike? momentum break? volume anomaly? you're not modeling the market. you're reading a solved exam renaissance, citadel, two sigma - required by law to publish this every 90 days most retail traders have never opened a 13F in their life people who figured this out aren't smarter. they just stopped asking "what should i buy?" and started asking "what did they buy, and why then?" Bookmark this knowledge and learn it ASAP answer sheet has been public since 1978. nobody told retail to open it

Livsun

40,209 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

quants aren't better at predicting the market they're better at reading yours - before you've finished placing the order when you click buy on robinhood, your broker sells that order to a market maker in milliseconds that market maker already knows your direction before it hits the exchange they reprice accordingly. you never get the true spread this is called payment for order flow - legal since 1984, and market makers pay brokers specifically to see your orders early retail traders pay roughly $1.4 billion a year in hidden execution costs. average trader never sees a line item for it renaissance built their edge on exactly this logic. not prediction - precision on systematic pricing errors that everyone else keeps making medallion fund: 66% gross annual return, 30 consecutive years not a single negative year in three decades trading the same instruments and public markets as everyone else - completely different information layer alpha wasn't hidden in some proprietary model. it lived in FINRA dark pool reports, SEC 13F filings, ATS transaction data all public, free, sitting completely unread because retail never thought to pull it game was never about being smarter it was about seeing the full board when everyone else only sees their own hand
0:45

quants aren't better at predicting the market they're better at reading yours - before you've finished placing the order when you click buy on robinhood, your broker sells that order to a market maker in milliseconds that market maker already knows your direction before it hits the exchange they reprice accordingly. you never get the true spread this is called payment for order flow - legal since 1984, and market makers pay brokers specifically to see your orders early retail traders pay roughly $1.4 billion a year in hidden execution costs. average trader never sees a line item for it renaissance built their edge on exactly this logic. not prediction - precision on systematic pricing errors that everyone else keeps making medallion fund: 66% gross annual return, 30 consecutive years not a single negative year in three decades trading the same instruments and public markets as everyone else - completely different information layer alpha wasn't hidden in some proprietary model. it lived in FINRA dark pool reports, SEC 13F filings, ATS transaction data all public, free, sitting completely unread because retail never thought to pull it game was never about being smarter it was about seeing the full board when everyone else only sees their own hand

Livsun

12,880 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

100 billion dollars made without predicting a single price direction not a direction call, a macro bet, or a news trade in sight they asked a completely different question than every retail trader alive retail: "will this go up?" quant: "what state is the market in, and where does that state historically lead?" same data. completely different game markets aren't random - they cycle through states: trending, ranging, compressing, reversing each state has a fixed historical probability of transitioning to the next that's the whole edge. not a signal, not an indicator - just conditional probability you don't need to know what fed will do or what earnings will print you need to know which state you're in and what that state leads to 68% of the time framework has been public since 1906 Bookmark it before it gone data is free, implementation is 200 lines of python, paper costs nothing they built 100 billion off math sitting in statistics textbooks your whole life you were staring at candles while they ran probability tables
0:52

100 billion dollars made without predicting a single price direction not a direction call, a macro bet, or a news trade in sight they asked a completely different question than every retail trader alive retail: "will this go up?" quant: "what state is the market in, and where does that state historically lead?" same data. completely different game markets aren't random - they cycle through states: trending, ranging, compressing, reversing each state has a fixed historical probability of transitioning to the next that's the whole edge. not a signal, not an indicator - just conditional probability you don't need to know what fed will do or what earnings will print you need to know which state you're in and what that state leads to 68% of the time framework has been public since 1906 Bookmark it before it gone data is free, implementation is 200 lines of python, paper costs nothing they built 100 billion off math sitting in statistics textbooks your whole life you were staring at candles while they ran probability tables

Livsun

13,335 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

options market makers calculate a number every day that tells them whether to pin price or let it run retail has no idea it exists it's called net dealer gamma exposure. when they're long gamma, they hedge by selling rallies and buying dips - price gets pinned when short gamma, they hedge the opposite way - moves accelerate, break out, trend this isn't hidden data or a proprietary signal it's calculable from public cboe options chains, free, updated every morning crossover - where gamma flips zero - is your volatility regime indicator above it: suppression, below it: acceleration python + cboe feed + 200 lines of code to build it framework in academic papers since 2017, sitting in textbooks the whole time retail has been reading candles while market makers were reading their own hedging book Bookmark and reasearch it yourself same market. completely different game
0:35

options market makers calculate a number every day that tells them whether to pin price or let it run retail has no idea it exists it's called net dealer gamma exposure. when they're long gamma, they hedge by selling rallies and buying dips - price gets pinned when short gamma, they hedge the opposite way - moves accelerate, break out, trend this isn't hidden data or a proprietary signal it's calculable from public cboe options chains, free, updated every morning crossover - where gamma flips zero - is your volatility regime indicator above it: suppression, below it: acceleration python + cboe feed + 200 lines of code to build it framework in academic papers since 2017, sitting in textbooks the whole time retail has been reading candles while market makers were reading their own hedging book Bookmark and reasearch it yourself same market. completely different game

Livsun

59,146 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

HOW RETAIL INVESTORS CAUSED THE WORLD’S BEST-PERFORMING HEDGE FUND TO CRASH 50% IN JUST TWO WEEKS! $OPEN $OKLO $BTQ $GME $IONQ $RGTI $PLTR $BBAI $QUBT $ACHR $JOBY Michael Barton - a trader from Coatue, arguably the top-performing hedge fund today with $70B under management - was recently interviewed on Molly O’Shea ’s YouTube channel. The insights were wild: - “Before I worked at Coatue, I worked at Melvin Capital.” Yes, the hedge fund that shorted $GME. - “We went from the best-performing hedge fund in the world… to down 50% in two weeks.” Retail traders forced one of the most sophisticated funds on the planet into a historic drawdown! - “We underestimated how powerful Retail could be. When they focus all their energy on a single stock. You’re seeing the same thing now with Opendoor.” - “Investing has changed - we track everything, how often stocks are mentioned on Reddit, Twitter, internet trends… all of it.” What this really means: 1. Retail is now a legitimate force in the markets. When retail traders concentrate on specific sectors or tickers - like Quantum or Nuclear plays right now -hedge funds ride the wave up… and then short it on the way down. 2. You’re being tracked. Every major retail community - unusual_whales , zerohedge , WallStreetBets, all the trending Reddit stock groups - hedge funds scrape and analyze all of your posts. They front-run Retail sentiment and monetize it. 3. Don’t be left holding the bag. A lot of “timely” news articles that come out during hype cycles? Often funded or influenced by the same players who need exit liquidity after riding the move up with Retail. Retail piles in at the top, hedge funds exit - then short - and Retail capitulates while moving on to the next hype wave. 4. Know what you’re buying. Is it a real business with long-term fundamentals? Or just a momentum-driven hype play that hedge funds are exploiting? Don’t be the one left holding the bag. Full video linked in the comments.
2:29

HOW RETAIL INVESTORS CAUSED THE WORLD’S BEST-PERFORMING HEDGE FUND TO CRASH 50% IN JUST TWO WEEKS! $OPEN $OKLO $BTQ $GME $IONQ $RGTI $PLTR $BBAI $QUBT $ACHR $JOBY Michael Barton - a trader from Coatue, arguably the top-performing hedge fund today with $70B under management - was recently interviewed on Molly O’Shea ’s YouTube channel. The insights were wild: - “Before I worked at Coatue, I worked at Melvin Capital.” Yes, the hedge fund that shorted $GME. - “We went from the best-performing hedge fund in the world… to down 50% in two weeks.” Retail traders forced one of the most sophisticated funds on the planet into a historic drawdown! - “We underestimated how powerful Retail could be. When they focus all their energy on a single stock. You’re seeing the same thing now with Opendoor.” - “Investing has changed - we track everything, how often stocks are mentioned on Reddit, Twitter, internet trends… all of it.” What this really means: 1. Retail is now a legitimate force in the markets. When retail traders concentrate on specific sectors or tickers - like Quantum or Nuclear plays right now -hedge funds ride the wave up… and then short it on the way down. 2. You’re being tracked. Every major retail community - unusual_whales , zerohedge , WallStreetBets, all the trending Reddit stock groups - hedge funds scrape and analyze all of your posts. They front-run Retail sentiment and monetize it. 3. Don’t be left holding the bag. A lot of “timely” news articles that come out during hype cycles? Often funded or influenced by the same players who need exit liquidity after riding the move up with Retail. Retail piles in at the top, hedge funds exit - then short - and Retail capitulates while moving on to the next hype wave. 4. Know what you’re buying. Is it a real business with long-term fundamentals? Or just a momentum-driven hype play that hedge funds are exploiting? Don’t be the one left holding the bag. Full video linked in the comments.

Common Sense Investor (CSI)

140,629 просмотров • 9 месяцев назад

Claude Shannon ran his personal stock account at 28% a year for 30 years. He's also the man who mathematically proved the ceiling above every filter the thread above is selling. Both facts have been sitting in the same library since 1948. Shannon didn't beat the market with a smarter moving average. He didn't beat it with a swarm, a neural net, or the sharpest filter of his generation, and he could have built any of them in an afternoon. He beat it because he understood the one thing the industry has been quietly ignoring for 78 years: no filter, no matter how clever, can pull more signal from a channel than the channel actually holds. The market channel is almost pure noise by design. Every real edge gets arbitraged toward zero the moment enough people find it. A better filter doesn't create signal that wasn't there - it rounds noise into a shape that fools you into betting on it. Shannon compounded like that because he was ruthless about which channels still had signal left, and disciplined about how much to bet when they did. The filter came last. It always comes last. Build the filter. It's a fine tool. Just remember there's a ceiling above it no engineering can lift, and the part that finds signal before it decays - that part, you still have to bring yourself. Shannon wrote it down in 1948. It's still free. The lesson has been sitting there for 78 years.
29:44

Claude Shannon ran his personal stock account at 28% a year for 30 years. He's also the man who mathematically proved the ceiling above every filter the thread above is selling. Both facts have been sitting in the same library since 1948. Shannon didn't beat the market with a smarter moving average. He didn't beat it with a swarm, a neural net, or the sharpest filter of his generation, and he could have built any of them in an afternoon. He beat it because he understood the one thing the industry has been quietly ignoring for 78 years: no filter, no matter how clever, can pull more signal from a channel than the channel actually holds. The market channel is almost pure noise by design. Every real edge gets arbitraged toward zero the moment enough people find it. A better filter doesn't create signal that wasn't there - it rounds noise into a shape that fools you into betting on it. Shannon compounded like that because he was ruthless about which channels still had signal left, and disciplined about how much to bet when they did. The filter came last. It always comes last. Build the filter. It's a fine tool. Just remember there's a ceiling above it no engineering can lift, and the part that finds signal before it decays - that part, you still have to bring yourself. Shannon wrote it down in 1948. It's still free. The lesson has been sitting there for 78 years.

Veles

207,290 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

BREAKING: Bill Ackman just IPO'd his hedge fund. He targeted $25 billion two years ago. He raised $5 billion yesterday. And the retail investors he spent two years courting on X didn't show up. Here's what actually happened, and why it matters for every investor who thinks following a famous name is a strategy. Wednesday, April 29. Bill Ackman rang the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange. Two listed entities hit the market. Pershing Square USA (PSUS), the closed-end fund. Pershing Square Inc. (PS), the asset manager. PSUS priced at $50 a share. It opened at $42. It closed at $40.90. Down 18% on debut. One of the most famous hedge fund managers on the planet went public, and his fund lost nearly a fifth of its value in a single trading session. Now look at how the money actually came in. Of the $5 billion raised, $2.8 billion came from a private placement. Family offices took 30% of that. Pension funds took 25%. Insurance companies took 22%. Ultra-high-net-worth investors took 12%. Institutional investors accounted for over 85% of total orders. The remaining $2.2 billion came from a public offering of 44 million PSUS shares. Some of that was retail. Most of it was not. Ackman has 2 million followers on X. He spent two years marketing this fund as a way for regular people to access hedge fund returns at $50 a share. He even said it on CNBC the morning of the IPO: "Hedge funds are sort of known for managing money for rich people. And now we have the opportunity for someone with $50, could be a long-term shareholder. Usually, the retail gets cut massively back, the institutions are favored. We did the opposite." The retail audience he was talking to didn't believe him. The institutions did. Two years ago, the original target was $25 billion. Yesterday, the final number was $5 billion. That's an 80% downsize. This is one of the most watched investors in the world. He gets booked on every major financial network. He posts daily to millions of followers. He has been pitching this exact deal since 2024. And the deal still came in 80% smaller than planned. Here's the part nobody is connecting: The retail audience for hedge fund products is fundamentally different from the retail audience for personality content. Ackman built a following by being loud on X. Loud on takeovers. Loud on politics. Loud on universities. Loud on ETFs. Loud on macro calls. Followers love that. They follow. They reply. They retweet. But following someone is free. Wiring money into their closed-end fund at NAV with no performance fees and a fee structure most retail investors can't even read is an entirely different decision. The market just made that distinction for him. Now zoom out, because this is the structural lesson. The $2.8 billion private placement was wrapped up before retail even saw the deal. Family offices. Pension funds. Insurance companies. Sovereign wealth. These are the buyers who get the call before the IPO is announced. They get the term sheet. They negotiate. They commit. By the time the public sees the listing on a Wednesday morning, the institutions have already locked in their allocation. The retail investor sees the same news, gets the same prospectus, and reads the same ticker. Different game. Same name on the door. And then PSUS opened down 16% and closed down 18%. Every retail buyer who put in $50 at the IPO price was sitting on a $9 paper loss before lunch. The institutions had locked in better terms in the private placement. Same fund. Same manager. Two completely different starting positions. This is how the structure of capital markets actually works. Every. Single. Time. The brochure says democratization. The cap table says the institutions got there first. This is the same lesson the Blue Owl and BlackRock private credit stories taught us last year. When a famous money manager opens a vehicle to retail, the fine print and the fee structure and the timing of the allocation all favor the people who already have access. You can have a manager with no performance fee, with bonus shares attached, with two million social followers, and a stage on CNBC. The math of who gets in first and at what price is still the math. So what does this mean for you? It means a famous name on the cover is not a strategy. It means following an investor on X is not the same as being invested with them. It means the retail audience for entertaining finance content is enormous, and the retail audience for actually deploying capital into a complex product is not. The wealthy don't pay famous investors for personality. They build systems that don't depend on a single human being having a good year, or a good fund debut, or a good narrative on social media. Ackman's reputation got him on the front page. It didn't get the stock above its IPO price. The math always catches up. The personality doesn't change the math. Boring? Yes. Effective when a $25 billion vision becomes a $5 billion raise that opens down 18%? Also yes. This is exactly why we built Surmount. Automated, rules-based investment strategies. Built for the retail investor who doesn't want to bet a portfolio on whether a famous fund manager has a good debut:
5:01

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BREAKING: Bill Ackman just IPO'd his hedge fund. He targeted $25 billion two years ago. He raised $5 billion yesterday. And the retail investors he spent two years courting on X didn't show up. Here's what actually happened, and why it matters for every investor who thinks following a famous name is a strategy. Wednesday, April 29. Bill Ackman rang the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange. Two listed entities hit the market. Pershing Square USA (PSUS), the closed-end fund. Pershing Square Inc. (PS), the asset manager. PSUS priced at $50 a share. It opened at $42. It closed at $40.90. Down 18% on debut. One of the most famous hedge fund managers on the planet went public, and his fund lost nearly a fifth of its value in a single trading session. Now look at how the money actually came in. Of the $5 billion raised, $2.8 billion came from a private placement. Family offices took 30% of that. Pension funds took 25%. Insurance companies took 22%. Ultra-high-net-worth investors took 12%. Institutional investors accounted for over 85% of total orders. The remaining $2.2 billion came from a public offering of 44 million PSUS shares. Some of that was retail. Most of it was not. Ackman has 2 million followers on X. He spent two years marketing this fund as a way for regular people to access hedge fund returns at $50 a share. He even said it on CNBC the morning of the IPO: "Hedge funds are sort of known for managing money for rich people. And now we have the opportunity for someone with $50, could be a long-term shareholder. Usually, the retail gets cut massively back, the institutions are favored. We did the opposite." The retail audience he was talking to didn't believe him. The institutions did. Two years ago, the original target was $25 billion. Yesterday, the final number was $5 billion. That's an 80% downsize. This is one of the most watched investors in the world. He gets booked on every major financial network. He posts daily to millions of followers. He has been pitching this exact deal since 2024. And the deal still came in 80% smaller than planned. Here's the part nobody is connecting: The retail audience for hedge fund products is fundamentally different from the retail audience for personality content. Ackman built a following by being loud on X. Loud on takeovers. Loud on politics. Loud on universities. Loud on ETFs. Loud on macro calls. Followers love that. They follow. They reply. They retweet. But following someone is free. Wiring money into their closed-end fund at NAV with no performance fees and a fee structure most retail investors can't even read is an entirely different decision. The market just made that distinction for him. Now zoom out, because this is the structural lesson. The $2.8 billion private placement was wrapped up before retail even saw the deal. Family offices. Pension funds. Insurance companies. Sovereign wealth. These are the buyers who get the call before the IPO is announced. They get the term sheet. They negotiate. They commit. By the time the public sees the listing on a Wednesday morning, the institutions have already locked in their allocation. The retail investor sees the same news, gets the same prospectus, and reads the same ticker. Different game. Same name on the door. And then PSUS opened down 16% and closed down 18%. Every retail buyer who put in $50 at the IPO price was sitting on a $9 paper loss before lunch. The institutions had locked in better terms in the private placement. Same fund. Same manager. Two completely different starting positions. This is how the structure of capital markets actually works. Every. Single. Time. The brochure says democratization. The cap table says the institutions got there first. This is the same lesson the Blue Owl and BlackRock private credit stories taught us last year. When a famous money manager opens a vehicle to retail, the fine print and the fee structure and the timing of the allocation all favor the people who already have access. You can have a manager with no performance fee, with bonus shares attached, with two million social followers, and a stage on CNBC. The math of who gets in first and at what price is still the math. So what does this mean for you? It means a famous name on the cover is not a strategy. It means following an investor on X is not the same as being invested with them. It means the retail audience for entertaining finance content is enormous, and the retail audience for actually deploying capital into a complex product is not. The wealthy don't pay famous investors for personality. They build systems that don't depend on a single human being having a good year, or a good fund debut, or a good narrative on social media. Ackman's reputation got him on the front page. It didn't get the stock above its IPO price. The math always catches up. The personality doesn't change the math. Boring? Yes. Effective when a $25 billion vision becomes a $5 billion raise that opens down 18%? Also yes. This is exactly why we built Surmount. Automated, rules-based investment strategies. Built for the retail investor who doesn't want to bet a portfolio on whether a famous fund manager has a good debut:

Logan Weaver

220,960 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

a 23-year-old with zero quant background ran a 14-year backtest on free government data last month sharpe of 1.8. most multi-strat funds averaged 1.1 last year signal he used? CFTC commitment of traders report - published every friday, free, updated weekly since 1986 nobody reads it - funds call it "too noisy." his one rule: when commercial hedgers flip net-long above the 70th percentile, buy monday's open 14-year window: 71% win rate on sp500 futures, max drawdown 12% quant at a multi-strat fund he showed it to said "data quality is too low to trade." same fund is down 9% ytd here's what's actually happening - institutional quants need complexity, their LPs need to feel like they're paying for something proprietary a 3-line rule that works embarrasses an entire pitch deck signal isn't hidden. been sitting on cftc. gov the whole time, updated weekly, zero paywall people see "government report" and close the tab - that's the edge data was always free and public - everyone just assumed free means worthless
0:30

a 23-year-old with zero quant background ran a 14-year backtest on free government data last month sharpe of 1.8. most multi-strat funds averaged 1.1 last year signal he used? CFTC commitment of traders report - published every friday, free, updated weekly since 1986 nobody reads it - funds call it "too noisy." his one rule: when commercial hedgers flip net-long above the 70th percentile, buy monday's open 14-year window: 71% win rate on sp500 futures, max drawdown 12% quant at a multi-strat fund he showed it to said "data quality is too low to trade." same fund is down 9% ytd here's what's actually happening - institutional quants need complexity, their LPs need to feel like they're paying for something proprietary a 3-line rule that works embarrasses an entire pitch deck signal isn't hidden. been sitting on cftc. gov the whole time, updated weekly, zero paywall people see "government report" and close the tab - that's the edge data was always free and public - everyone just assumed free means worthless

Livsun

12,447 просмотров • 17 дней назад

retail has 10,000 indicators and still loses 80% of the time quants have one number they pull every morning before touching anything else it's called options skew - the gap between how much downside protection costs versus upside exposure on any liquid name CBOE publishes it free, every 15 minutes, on every major ticker since 2004 when put vol runs 8+ points above call vol on SPY, institutional desks are paying premium to hedge hard - that's not noise, that's where money thinks risk actually is backtested 2009 to 2024: when skew spikes 1.5 sigma above its 90-day baseline, SPY underperforms next 15 sessions 68% of the time not predicting direction - reading where billion-dollar desks are quietly paying to protect themselves size with kelly at 68% edge, enter short, exit in three weeks retail spent years memorizing moving average crossovers quants spent the same years reading a free number nobody told them existed same market. completely different question bookmark this data was public the whole time, you just didn't know to look for it
0:30

retail has 10,000 indicators and still loses 80% of the time quants have one number they pull every morning before touching anything else it's called options skew - the gap between how much downside protection costs versus upside exposure on any liquid name CBOE publishes it free, every 15 minutes, on every major ticker since 2004 when put vol runs 8+ points above call vol on SPY, institutional desks are paying premium to hedge hard - that's not noise, that's where money thinks risk actually is backtested 2009 to 2024: when skew spikes 1.5 sigma above its 90-day baseline, SPY underperforms next 15 sessions 68% of the time not predicting direction - reading where billion-dollar desks are quietly paying to protect themselves size with kelly at 68% edge, enter short, exit in three weeks retail spent years memorizing moving average crossovers quants spent the same years reading a free number nobody told them existed same market. completely different question bookmark this data was public the whole time, you just didn't know to look for it

Livsun

78,930 просмотров • 29 дней назад

option pricing models used to cost $50k a year in bloomberg fees. they're free in 2026 and almost nobody's noticed yet black-scholes, binomial trees, full vol surfaces - hedge funds paid terminal licensing to keep this math away from retail for 30 years moat was never the math. black-scholes published in 1973, free in every university library moat was the terminal. $2,000/month just to run the calculation pause at 0:23 - below the title on the chalkboard there's a partial formula. that formula costs $40k/year to access inside bloomberg it's been free since 1973 real edge was never black-scholes itself - it was the vol surface. implied volatility across every strike and expiry, showing you what the market thinks the actual distribution of outcomes is retail never saw it. terminal users built strategies around it every morning now yfinance pulls live option chains for free. scipy builds the full surface in under 60 seconds what took a prop desk analyst his whole morning takes a laptop and one lunch break access gap closed. knowledge gap didn't, and that's where the actual edge lives now bookmark this
1:29

option pricing models used to cost $50k a year in bloomberg fees. they're free in 2026 and almost nobody's noticed yet black-scholes, binomial trees, full vol surfaces - hedge funds paid terminal licensing to keep this math away from retail for 30 years moat was never the math. black-scholes published in 1973, free in every university library moat was the terminal. $2,000/month just to run the calculation pause at 0:23 - below the title on the chalkboard there's a partial formula. that formula costs $40k/year to access inside bloomberg it's been free since 1973 real edge was never black-scholes itself - it was the vol surface. implied volatility across every strike and expiry, showing you what the market thinks the actual distribution of outcomes is retail never saw it. terminal users built strategies around it every morning now yfinance pulls live option chains for free. scipy builds the full surface in under 60 seconds what took a prop desk analyst his whole morning takes a laptop and one lunch break access gap closed. knowledge gap didn't, and that's where the actual edge lives now bookmark this

Livsun

14,293 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

SAWYER MERRITT JUST EXPLAINED WHY SPACEX $SPCX ACTUALLY WENT PUBLIC Sawyer Merritt And it is not the reason most people think. SpaceX stopped raising money years ago. Every raise they've done over the last couple of years has been secondaries to let employees sell. The company didn't get any of that money. They did not need to. Starlink was producing enough cash to fund operations entirely on its own. Then the AI compute arms race started. "Raising $75 billion in the private market is extremely difficult. To do it over and over, having access to public markets and the amount of liquidity there is, is just a much better scenario for them." But there is a second reason people are underestimating: "Don't underestimate Elon's willingness to open it up to retail investors. I think he hates just only having big institutional guys in his stock. He really just wanted to open up the little guy to have a piece of this thing before the valuation started to get super crazy in the years to come."
0:54

SAWYER MERRITT JUST EXPLAINED WHY SPACEX $SPCX ACTUALLY WENT PUBLIC Sawyer Merritt And it is not the reason most people think. SpaceX stopped raising money years ago. Every raise they've done over the last couple of years has been secondaries to let employees sell. The company didn't get any of that money. They did not need to. Starlink was producing enough cash to fund operations entirely on its own. Then the AI compute arms race started. "Raising $75 billion in the private market is extremely difficult. To do it over and over, having access to public markets and the amount of liquidity there is, is just a much better scenario for them." But there is a second reason people are underestimating: "Don't underestimate Elon's willingness to open it up to retail investors. I think he hates just only having big institutional guys in his stock. He really just wanted to open up the little guy to have a piece of this thing before the valuation started to get super crazy in the years to come."

WOLF

59,531 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

🚨 THIS IS NOT NORMAL Is the AI bubble finally bursting? Samsung just posted the greatest quarterly profit in tech history. ₩89.4 trillion ($58.4 billion), up 1,810% year over year. The stock fell 7.70% anyway, now down -23.74% from its peak in just 15 days. Here is the alarming part. The market already knew these numbers were coming. Analysts, institutions, and retail investors had been positioning for this quarter for months. The moment the numbers confirmed what everyone already expected, there was nobody left to buy. That is what a fully priced market looks like. When the best earnings in corporate history produce a crash, it means the AI trade has run out of buyers at these levels. Keep in mind: I’ve called every major market top and bottom for over 10 YEARS. I was one of the only people who called the top in October, and I’ll do it again, that’s literally my job. If you still haven’t followed me, you’ll regret it.
0:30

🚨 THIS IS NOT NORMAL Is the AI bubble finally bursting? Samsung just posted the greatest quarterly profit in tech history. ₩89.4 trillion ($58.4 billion), up 1,810% year over year. The stock fell 7.70% anyway, now down -23.74% from its peak in just 15 days. Here is the alarming part. The market already knew these numbers were coming. Analysts, institutions, and retail investors had been positioning for this quarter for months. The moment the numbers confirmed what everyone already expected, there was nobody left to buy. That is what a fully priced market looks like. When the best earnings in corporate history produce a crash, it means the AI trade has run out of buyers at these levels. Keep in mind: I’ve called every major market top and bottom for over 10 YEARS. I was one of the only people who called the top in October, and I’ll do it again, that’s literally my job. If you still haven’t followed me, you’ll regret it.

DANNY

78,595 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

Carl Icahn called Tim Cook and told him Apple was massively undervalued at 8x earnings, then pushed him to buy back $100 billion of stock. Apple is up more than 12x since. This is Icahn on the call he made when the rest of Wall Street had a great company priced like a dying one, and why he put everything behind it. Apple was throwing off cash and dominating its market, yet it traded at a multiple usually reserved for companies in decline. Icahn's read was that the market had it exactly backwards, and he wanted the company to use its enormous cash pile to buy its own stock while it was still cheap. "If they did a Dutch tender, I could say as much as $100 billion. I think this would really change the whole paradigm." He had not sent the letter cold. By his own account he called Cook first, and even the CEO agreed. "I called him and I told him this letter was coming. He thinks it's very undervalued." And he sized the position the way he had sized every conviction of his career. "As an old poker player, I put all my chips into this." The mutual funds that were too scared to own Apple eventually had to. It compounded for another decade, and the man who called it cheap at 8x earnings was proven right many times over. Bookmark & watch ↓
31:32

Carl Icahn called Tim Cook and told him Apple was massively undervalued at 8x earnings, then pushed him to buy back $100 billion of stock. Apple is up more than 12x since. This is Icahn on the call he made when the rest of Wall Street had a great company priced like a dying one, and why he put everything behind it. Apple was throwing off cash and dominating its market, yet it traded at a multiple usually reserved for companies in decline. Icahn's read was that the market had it exactly backwards, and he wanted the company to use its enormous cash pile to buy its own stock while it was still cheap. "If they did a Dutch tender, I could say as much as $100 billion. I think this would really change the whole paradigm." He had not sent the letter cold. By his own account he called Cook first, and even the CEO agreed. "I called him and I told him this letter was coming. He thinks it's very undervalued." And he sized the position the way he had sized every conviction of his career. "As an old poker player, I put all my chips into this." The mutual funds that were too scared to own Apple eventually had to. It compounded for another decade, and the man who called it cheap at 8x earnings was proven right many times over. Bookmark & watch ↓

Fireside Tapes

55,772 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

A man invested $53,000 of his family's savings into a dying video game store. Hedge funds laughed. He turned it into $48 MILLION and made Wall Street beg Congress to stop him. > Keith Gill was a 34 year old financial analyst at a Boston insurance firm in 2019. His salary was ordinary but his conviction was not. > He believed GameStop, a struggling mall video game retailer trading at $5 a share, was one of the most undervalued companies in America. > Wall Street disagreed. Hedge funds had shorted the stock so aggressively that more shares were shorted than actually existed. They were certain it was going to zero. > Gill invested $53,000 of his family's savings and started posting his analysis online under the name DeepFuckingValue on Reddit and Roaring Kitty on YouTube. > Nobody took him seriously. He kept posting anyway, week after week, with nothing but spreadsheets and conviction. > In January 2021 retail traders on Reddit's WallStreetBets discovered his posts. > They started buying. The stock went from $5 to $483 in three weeks. A 9,600% move. > Hedge funds that shorted the stock lost BILLIONS. One firm alone lost $6.8 BILLIO and had to be bailed out by other hedge funds. > By January 27 2021 Gill's $53,000 investment was worth $48 MILLION. > He lost $13 MILLION in a single day when the stock fell. He held anyway, without flinching, without selling a share. > Robinhood restricted buying of GameStop without warning. Retail traders were furious. Congress summoned Gill to testify. > He showed up in his Roaring Kitty headband and said three words that became the most quoted phrase in finance that year: "I like the stock." > His employer fired him and paid a $4 MILLION fine for failing to supervise his trading. > He went quiet for three years. Then in May 2024 he posted a single image on X. GameStop surged 50% the next morning before he said a word. > By June 2024 his position was worth $289 MILLION. > A Hollywood film called Dumb Money was made about the saga, starring Paul Dano. He has never spoken publicly about it. He invested $53,000 into a stock Wall Street had already written off for dead. Hedge funds lost BILLIONS.
0:59

A man invested $53,000 of his family's savings into a dying video game store. Hedge funds laughed. He turned it into $48 MILLION and made Wall Street beg Congress to stop him. > Keith Gill was a 34 year old financial analyst at a Boston insurance firm in 2019. His salary was ordinary but his conviction was not. > He believed GameStop, a struggling mall video game retailer trading at $5 a share, was one of the most undervalued companies in America. > Wall Street disagreed. Hedge funds had shorted the stock so aggressively that more shares were shorted than actually existed. They were certain it was going to zero. > Gill invested $53,000 of his family's savings and started posting his analysis online under the name DeepFuckingValue on Reddit and Roaring Kitty on YouTube. > Nobody took him seriously. He kept posting anyway, week after week, with nothing but spreadsheets and conviction. > In January 2021 retail traders on Reddit's WallStreetBets discovered his posts. > They started buying. The stock went from $5 to $483 in three weeks. A 9,600% move. > Hedge funds that shorted the stock lost BILLIONS. One firm alone lost $6.8 BILLIO and had to be bailed out by other hedge funds. > By January 27 2021 Gill's $53,000 investment was worth $48 MILLION. > He lost $13 MILLION in a single day when the stock fell. He held anyway, without flinching, without selling a share. > Robinhood restricted buying of GameStop without warning. Retail traders were furious. Congress summoned Gill to testify. > He showed up in his Roaring Kitty headband and said three words that became the most quoted phrase in finance that year: "I like the stock." > His employer fired him and paid a $4 MILLION fine for failing to supervise his trading. > He went quiet for three years. Then in May 2024 he posted a single image on X. GameStop surged 50% the next morning before he said a word. > By June 2024 his position was worth $289 MILLION. > A Hollywood film called Dumb Money was made about the saga, starring Paul Dano. He has never spoken publicly about it. He invested $53,000 into a stock Wall Street had already written off for dead. Hedge funds lost BILLIONS.

Comet

1,835,290 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

This is incredible, SpaceX early investors will be able to sell 20% of $SPCX shares after the Q2 earnings report on June 30th. There's also a performance-based trigger where investors can sell an additional 10% of stock if the stock trades 30% above IPO price for 5 days after earnings June 30th. The lockup structure also allows investors to sell in increments of 7% after 70, 90, 105, 120 and 135 days after IPO. The remainder unlocks after 180 days. This one of the greatest wealth transfers I've ever seen from retail to early investors. No wonder they changed the rules to rush it into the indices after only 15 days (July 3rd). When that happens, retirement funds and passive ETFs will be forced to buy SpaceX precisely when the unlocks hit and early investors are able to begin dumping their shares. Is this the most corrupt IPO in history?
1:20

This is incredible, SpaceX early investors will be able to sell 20% of $SPCX shares after the Q2 earnings report on June 30th. There's also a performance-based trigger where investors can sell an additional 10% of stock if the stock trades 30% above IPO price for 5 days after earnings June 30th. The lockup structure also allows investors to sell in increments of 7% after 70, 90, 105, 120 and 135 days after IPO. The remainder unlocks after 180 days. This one of the greatest wealth transfers I've ever seen from retail to early investors. No wonder they changed the rules to rush it into the indices after only 15 days (July 3rd). When that happens, retirement funds and passive ETFs will be forced to buy SpaceX precisely when the unlocks hit and early investors are able to begin dumping their shares. Is this the most corrupt IPO in history?

Financelot

795,466 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

Michael Saylor spent 2025 telling people to sell a kidney before selling Bitcoin. Then he literally dumped $323 million of it since May. He just went on Diary of a CEO and exposed himself as a hypocrite in his own words: His company holds 842,138 Bitcoin. That is roughly 4% of every coin that will ever exist, which makes it the largest corporate holder on Earth. In February 2025 he posted "Sell a kidney if you must, but keep the Bitcoin." Weeks earlier he had written that selling weakens the network. But here is what his own filings show since May: - 32 Bitcoin sold between May 26 and May 31 for $2.5 million - 3,588 Bitcoin sold between June 29 and July 5 for $216 million, the largest disposal in company history - 1,638 Bitcoin sold between July 27 and August 2 for $104.73 million That last batch went out at an average of $63,957 a coin. His average purchase price is around $75,400. He sold at a LOSS. New Bitcoin purchases are currently paused. So why is the loudest Bitcoin bull alive selling coins for less than he paid? The answer is a bill he built himself, and he walked through the whole thing on that podcast without once connecting it to the selling. He went to ChatGPT and asked it to design a security nobody had ever built, a preferred stock where he could change the dividend rate every month. He says the lawyers and bankers told him it had never been done before. He brought it to market as a $2.5 billion IPO, then sold another $8 billion off a shelf registration. His own framing of that: Selling $15 billion of credit "kind of equates to the company making about $15 billion." Selling credit is borrowing. Every dollar came attached to a dividend he now has to pay in cash, forever, whether Bitcoin goes up or not. Strategy owes over $1.7 billion a year across five preferred instruments and its debt. The software business does not come close to covering that. So the Bitcoin covers it. The break-even is 3.2%. So if Bitcoin appreciates 3.2% a year, they can pay those dividends indefinitely by selling Bitcoin to do it. He called the sale a one-time demonstration to break a short seller narrative and said selling is not the primary strategy. His own CEO Phong Le told the Q2 earnings call that Strategy will sell whenever management finds it advantageous, and that investors should expect more going forward. Now look at who ends up holding the bag: That preferred stock is majority owned by retail investors, and it dropped to $89 against a $100 par value in June. Retail Bitcoin holders get told to hold through anything while retail preferred holders get paid a yield funded by selling that same Bitcoin at a loss. He opened that same episode explaining that Bitcoin lets you own something nobody more powerful can take away from you. In 2024 he paid $40 million to settle what the DC Attorney General called the LARGEST income tax fraud recovery in the city's history. The complaint said he claimed residency in Florida while his own security logs placed him in Washington for 1,397 days against 449 in Florida. He settled without admitting wrongdoing and still disputes living there. In 2000 he settled SEC accounting fraud charges after his company reported profits during years it was actually losing money. He disgorged $8.28 million and admitted nothing. Strategy lost $12.54 billion in the first quarter and another $8.22 billion in the second. And this week he sat there and told a 25 year old with a few hundred dollars to buy Bitcoin and hold it for a decade. But he is not doing that himself. His company just SOLD $105 million of it. What do you think of Saylor?
2:24

Michael Saylor spent 2025 telling people to sell a kidney before selling Bitcoin. Then he literally dumped $323 million of it since May. He just went on Diary of a CEO and exposed himself as a hypocrite in his own words: His company holds 842,138 Bitcoin. That is roughly 4% of every coin that will ever exist, which makes it the largest corporate holder on Earth. In February 2025 he posted "Sell a kidney if you must, but keep the Bitcoin." Weeks earlier he had written that selling weakens the network. But here is what his own filings show since May: - 32 Bitcoin sold between May 26 and May 31 for $2.5 million - 3,588 Bitcoin sold between June 29 and July 5 for $216 million, the largest disposal in company history - 1,638 Bitcoin sold between July 27 and August 2 for $104.73 million That last batch went out at an average of $63,957 a coin. His average purchase price is around $75,400. He sold at a LOSS. New Bitcoin purchases are currently paused. So why is the loudest Bitcoin bull alive selling coins for less than he paid? The answer is a bill he built himself, and he walked through the whole thing on that podcast without once connecting it to the selling. He went to ChatGPT and asked it to design a security nobody had ever built, a preferred stock where he could change the dividend rate every month. He says the lawyers and bankers told him it had never been done before. He brought it to market as a $2.5 billion IPO, then sold another $8 billion off a shelf registration. His own framing of that: Selling $15 billion of credit "kind of equates to the company making about $15 billion." Selling credit is borrowing. Every dollar came attached to a dividend he now has to pay in cash, forever, whether Bitcoin goes up or not. Strategy owes over $1.7 billion a year across five preferred instruments and its debt. The software business does not come close to covering that. So the Bitcoin covers it. The break-even is 3.2%. So if Bitcoin appreciates 3.2% a year, they can pay those dividends indefinitely by selling Bitcoin to do it. He called the sale a one-time demonstration to break a short seller narrative and said selling is not the primary strategy. His own CEO Phong Le told the Q2 earnings call that Strategy will sell whenever management finds it advantageous, and that investors should expect more going forward. Now look at who ends up holding the bag: That preferred stock is majority owned by retail investors, and it dropped to $89 against a $100 par value in June. Retail Bitcoin holders get told to hold through anything while retail preferred holders get paid a yield funded by selling that same Bitcoin at a loss. He opened that same episode explaining that Bitcoin lets you own something nobody more powerful can take away from you. In 2024 he paid $40 million to settle what the DC Attorney General called the LARGEST income tax fraud recovery in the city's history. The complaint said he claimed residency in Florida while his own security logs placed him in Washington for 1,397 days against 449 in Florida. He settled without admitting wrongdoing and still disputes living there. In 2000 he settled SEC accounting fraud charges after his company reported profits during years it was actually losing money. He disgorged $8.28 million and admitted nothing. Strategy lost $12.54 billion in the first quarter and another $8.22 billion in the second. And this week he sat there and told a 25 year old with a few hundred dollars to buy Bitcoin and hold it for a decade. But he is not doing that himself. His company just SOLD $105 million of it. What do you think of Saylor?

Ricardo

20,623 просмотров • 25 дней назад

Yesterday, the CEO of $SOFI bought another $250K worth of shares at $15.73. This comes after: • $500K bought at $17.32 on March 17 • $1M bought at $17.88 on March 2 He sees $SOFI trading in the $30s today and above $40 within a year. His logic: ~40% earnings growth over the next 3 years while fintech peers trade around a 1.1x PEG ratio, implying roughly 44x earnings. Apply that multiple to $SOFI and the stock looks massively undervalued at current prices. The intrinsic value of $SOFI is at least 2x higher than where it trades today. $SOFI and $HOOD remain two of the most attractive opportunities in the market.
0:52

Yesterday, the CEO of $SOFI bought another $250K worth of shares at $15.73. This comes after: • $500K bought at $17.32 on March 17 • $1M bought at $17.88 on March 2 He sees $SOFI trading in the $30s today and above $40 within a year. His logic: ~40% earnings growth over the next 3 years while fintech peers trade around a 1.1x PEG ratio, implying roughly 44x earnings. Apply that multiple to $SOFI and the stock looks massively undervalued at current prices. The intrinsic value of $SOFI is at least 2x higher than where it trades today. $SOFI and $HOOD remain two of the most attractive opportunities in the market.

Daniel

140,341 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

Alan Oppenheim, MIT professor: "Jump Trading pays quants $650K to pull one real signal out of market noise. I wrote the textbook on that exact math and taught it for free." this free MIT lecture is the math the whole "quant edge" is built on, and almost nobody selling you a course will name it. the man teaching it wrote the signal-processing textbook every engineer on earth learned from, and he put the lectures online for nothing. here is the idea. a price chart is a signal buried in noise. most of what you see is random static, and hidden inside is a faint, repeating pattern with real mathematics for pulling it out. that is not a metaphor. jim simons was a codebreaker who did exactly this to enemy transmissions, then pointed the same math at the market and made a hundred billion dollars. none of it is new. oppenheim taught this in 1987, the math is older, and every lecture is free. same story i told in the article above. the edge was never a secret formula. it was knowing a market is a noisy signal, and having the tools to read it. here is what the gurus skip. the math to separate signal from noise is free and everyone has it. the edge is cleaner data than the next desk, and the discipline to trust a faint signal across thousands of trades instead of chasing the static. the filter is free. the patience to use it is not.
29:44

Alan Oppenheim, MIT professor: "Jump Trading pays quants $650K to pull one real signal out of market noise. I wrote the textbook on that exact math and taught it for free." this free MIT lecture is the math the whole "quant edge" is built on, and almost nobody selling you a course will name it. the man teaching it wrote the signal-processing textbook every engineer on earth learned from, and he put the lectures online for nothing. here is the idea. a price chart is a signal buried in noise. most of what you see is random static, and hidden inside is a faint, repeating pattern with real mathematics for pulling it out. that is not a metaphor. jim simons was a codebreaker who did exactly this to enemy transmissions, then pointed the same math at the market and made a hundred billion dollars. none of it is new. oppenheim taught this in 1987, the math is older, and every lecture is free. same story i told in the article above. the edge was never a secret formula. it was knowing a market is a noisy signal, and having the tools to read it. here is what the gurus skip. the math to separate signal from noise is free and everyone has it. the edge is cleaner data than the next desk, and the discipline to trust a faint signal across thousands of trades instead of chasing the static. the filter is free. the patience to use it is not.

Rossst.03

281,905 просмотров • 1 месяц назад