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Here's what the AI job collapse narrative gets wrong about the productivity boom. Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸 told Lenny Rachitsky the last 50 years ran at half the pace of the prior era and a third the pace of a century ago. Almost no real technological progress in the economy.... Remarkably little job turnover as a result. Even if AI triples productivity growth, a massive deal, job turnover only returns to the 1870 to 1930 rate. People living through that period did not experience collapse. They experienced a world awash with opportunity. New careers. New products. New services. A huge part of the modern world was invented and scaled in that window. Tripling the pace of change does not produce mass unemployment. It produces faster economic growth and faster job growth. Some task-level and job-level substitution will happen. It will be swamped by the macro effects of growth and innovation. Hiring blooms follow.The panic assumes dynamism destroys work. History treated that same dynamism as the engine of new work.show more

Patrick F. Feeley

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48,517 views • 26 days ago •via X (Twitter)

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We are only in the third inning of a new economic boom driven by President Trump’s pro-growth policies and innovation in technology and AI. We are about to see major gains in investment, productivity, and job growth across America.

We are only in the third inning of a new economic boom driven by President Trump’s pro-growth policies and innovation in technology and AI. We are about to see major gains in investment, productivity, and job growth across America.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent

453,149 views • 11 months ago

We need AI to work. Marc Andreessen on why AI is arriving at a moment of economic and demographic pressure: "Productivity growth for the last 50 years has actually been very low, not very high." "So statistically, in the US, in the west, technology progress in the economy ... has actually slowed way down." "Many countries around the world ... are actually going to depopulate over the next century." "We actually need AI to work in order to get productivity growth up... We actually need AI to work because we’re going to need machines to do all the jobs that we’re not going to have people to do." Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸 on Lenny's Podcast with Lenny Rachitsky

We need AI to work. Marc Andreessen on why AI is arriving at a moment of economic and demographic pressure: "Productivity growth for the last 50 years has actually been very low, not very high." "So statistically, in the US, in the west, technology progress in the economy ... has actually slowed way down." "Many countries around the world ... are actually going to depopulate over the next century." "We actually need AI to work in order to get productivity growth up... We actually need AI to work because we’re going to need machines to do all the jobs that we’re not going to have people to do." Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸 on Lenny's Podcast with Lenny Rachitsky

a16z

31,348 views • 7 months ago

Marc Andreessen: "The job is not actually the atomic unit of what happens in the workplace. The atomic unit of what happens in the workplace is the task." "A job is a bundle of tasks." “Everybody wants to talk about job loss, but really what you want to look at is task loss.” "As the tasks change enough, then that’s when the jobs change." "Ten years from now, is your job title coder, or coder-designer-product manager, or is it just, ‘I build products,’ or is it just, ‘I tell the AI how to build products.’ Whatever that job is called, it’s going to be incredibly important, because the people doing that job are going to be orchestrating the AI." Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸 on Lenny's Podcast with Lenny Rachitsky

Marc Andreessen: "The job is not actually the atomic unit of what happens in the workplace. The atomic unit of what happens in the workplace is the task." "A job is a bundle of tasks." “Everybody wants to talk about job loss, but really what you want to look at is task loss.” "As the tasks change enough, then that’s when the jobs change." "Ten years from now, is your job title coder, or coder-designer-product manager, or is it just, ‘I build products,’ or is it just, ‘I tell the AI how to build products.’ Whatever that job is called, it’s going to be incredibly important, because the people doing that job are going to be orchestrating the AI." Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸 on Lenny's Podcast with Lenny Rachitsky

a16z

292,928 views • 7 months ago

Jensen Huang just described something that should keep every worker in America awake tonight. Not because AI is coming for their job. Because most of them never understood what their job actually was. Huang: “The task of our job and the purpose of our job are related, not the same.” Most people think their job is the thing they do with their hands for eight hours a day. Write code. Fill spreadsheets. Draft emails. Push pixels. That was never the job. That was the task. The job was always the thinking underneath it. Huang: “If you apply that to me, you would come to the conclusion what Jensen does for a living is tap on phones and talk. And tapping on phones and talking, AI has done that just fine. And therefore my job should be gone. But I’m busier than ever.” This is the part nobody wants to sit with. The people panicking about AI aren’t afraid of losing their work. They’re afraid of finding out they never had any. They had a routine. A repetitive motion. A series of keystrokes that felt like purpose. Now a machine does it in four seconds. Huang: “AI has created more than half a million jobs in the last couple of years.” The data says one thing. The fear says another. Because the fear was never about employment numbers. It was about identity. We spent fifty years hunched over keyboards, convinced the hunching was the work. Huang: “The idea that being human means to hunch over on this little thing, typing all the time… 50 years before that, people didn’t do that.” Fifty years. That’s all it took to build an entire identity around a posture. We don’t type for a living. We think for a living. We imagine for a living. The keyboard was always just the delivery mechanism. Never the product. Huang: “It is a fundamental flaw that we only need a billion lines of code written. We need a trillion lines of code written.” The demand was always infinite. The bottleneck was always our fingers. AI doesn’t shrink the workforce. It removes the cap on what the workforce can actually build. Huang: “Companies that use AI have demonstrated the ability to grow faster. When they grow faster, they hire more people.” Growth doesn’t eliminate people. It pulls them in. Every industrial revolution triggered the same panic. Same headlines. Same wrong conclusion. And every single time, the economy didn’t contract. It expanded into territory that didn’t exist before. The real question was never whether AI takes your job. It was whether you were ever anything more than the motions you repeated. Because somewhere in the last fifty years, we stopped asking what the work was for. We just kept typing. And now the typing is done. And millions of people are about to meet themselves for the first time. With nothing to hide behind. Some of them won’t survive what they find.

Jensen Huang just described something that should keep every worker in America awake tonight. Not because AI is coming for their job. Because most of them never understood what their job actually was. Huang: “The task of our job and the purpose of our job are related, not the same.” Most people think their job is the thing they do with their hands for eight hours a day. Write code. Fill spreadsheets. Draft emails. Push pixels. That was never the job. That was the task. The job was always the thinking underneath it. Huang: “If you apply that to me, you would come to the conclusion what Jensen does for a living is tap on phones and talk. And tapping on phones and talking, AI has done that just fine. And therefore my job should be gone. But I’m busier than ever.” This is the part nobody wants to sit with. The people panicking about AI aren’t afraid of losing their work. They’re afraid of finding out they never had any. They had a routine. A repetitive motion. A series of keystrokes that felt like purpose. Now a machine does it in four seconds. Huang: “AI has created more than half a million jobs in the last couple of years.” The data says one thing. The fear says another. Because the fear was never about employment numbers. It was about identity. We spent fifty years hunched over keyboards, convinced the hunching was the work. Huang: “The idea that being human means to hunch over on this little thing, typing all the time… 50 years before that, people didn’t do that.” Fifty years. That’s all it took to build an entire identity around a posture. We don’t type for a living. We think for a living. We imagine for a living. The keyboard was always just the delivery mechanism. Never the product. Huang: “It is a fundamental flaw that we only need a billion lines of code written. We need a trillion lines of code written.” The demand was always infinite. The bottleneck was always our fingers. AI doesn’t shrink the workforce. It removes the cap on what the workforce can actually build. Huang: “Companies that use AI have demonstrated the ability to grow faster. When they grow faster, they hire more people.” Growth doesn’t eliminate people. It pulls them in. Every industrial revolution triggered the same panic. Same headlines. Same wrong conclusion. And every single time, the economy didn’t contract. It expanded into territory that didn’t exist before. The real question was never whether AI takes your job. It was whether you were ever anything more than the motions you repeated. Because somewhere in the last fifty years, we stopped asking what the work was for. We just kept typing. And now the typing is done. And millions of people are about to meet themselves for the first time. With nothing to hide behind. Some of them won’t survive what they find.

Dustin

92,782 views • 4 months ago

Marc Andreessen: "The job is not actually the atomic unit of what happens in the workplace. The atomic unit of what happens in the workplace is the task." "A job is a bundle of tasks." “Everybody wants to talk about job loss, but really what you want to look at is task loss.” "As the tasks change enough, then that’s when the jobs change." "Ten years from now, is your job title coder, or coder-designer-product manager, or is it just, ‘I build products,’ or is it just, ‘I tell the AI how to build products.’ Whatever that job is called, it’s going to be incredibly important, because the people doing that job are going to be orchestrating the AI."

Marc Andreessen: "The job is not actually the atomic unit of what happens in the workplace. The atomic unit of what happens in the workplace is the task." "A job is a bundle of tasks." “Everybody wants to talk about job loss, but really what you want to look at is task loss.” "As the tasks change enough, then that’s when the jobs change." "Ten years from now, is your job title coder, or coder-designer-product manager, or is it just, ‘I build products,’ or is it just, ‘I tell the AI how to build products.’ Whatever that job is called, it’s going to be incredibly important, because the people doing that job are going to be orchestrating the AI."

Lenny Rachitsky

46,682 views • 7 months ago

“Growth no longer guarantees jobs.” Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic, says AI could create a world with 5–10% GDP growth and still leave millions of people out of work. That breaks the old link between productivity and employment. Software gets cheaper. Companies move faster. Entire careers stop being safe by default.

“Growth no longer guarantees jobs.” Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic, says AI could create a world with 5–10% GDP growth and still leave millions of people out of work. That breaks the old link between productivity and employment. Software gets cheaper. Companies move faster. Entire careers stop being safe by default.

Jon Hernandez

87,809 views • 4 months ago

Rantz: We have 2% GDP growth. Phillip: You can’t gaslight about the history. A whole year of virtually zero private sector job growth, GDP growth that was below 1% and only went up to 2% is not a victory. Rantz: If the economy was struggling— Mockler: It is struggling.

Rantz: We have 2% GDP growth. Phillip: You can’t gaslight about the history. A whole year of virtually zero private sector job growth, GDP growth that was below 1% and only went up to 2% is not a victory. Rantz: If the economy was struggling— Mockler: It is struggling.

Acyn

215,078 views • 4 months ago

DAVID SACKS: “I understand that there is a lot of concern about [AI] job disruption or job loss. That's not what we're seeing in the data so far. What we're actually seeing is job creation … We have a 4% GDP growth number right now, and half of that is attributable to AI.”

DAVID SACKS: “I understand that there is a lot of concern about [AI] job disruption or job loss. That's not what we're seeing in the data so far. What we're actually seeing is job creation … We have a 4% GDP growth number right now, and half of that is attributable to AI.”

Chief Nerd

206,382 views • 9 months ago

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh lays out the state of the economy as the Fed raises rates by a quarter point: growth remains solid, spending is resilient, productivity is strong and capital investment is robust. But Warsh warns uncertainty remains elevated, "owing in part to geopolitical developments," even as job gains keep pace with the workforce and unemployment changes little. The sticking point is inflation, which Warsh says "remains elevated." "Today's policy action will support a timely return to the committee's 2% goal."

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh lays out the state of the economy as the Fed raises rates by a quarter point: growth remains solid, spending is resilient, productivity is strong and capital investment is robust. But Warsh warns uncertainty remains elevated, "owing in part to geopolitical developments," even as job gains keep pace with the workforce and unemployment changes little. The sticking point is inflation, which Warsh says "remains elevated." "Today's policy action will support a timely return to the committee's 2% goal."

Fox News

396,095 views • 5 days ago

The old GDP formula was population growth + productivity growth + debt growth. It ran for decades and it worked beautifully for the most part... populations grew, people got more productive, and debt was there to smooth the edges. In recent years demographics have weakened, productivity has stalled, and debt has ended up carrying the whole bloody thing. This is the crux of The Everything Code and it's exactly why we're stuck in this cycle, printing to service what we owe. But there's a way out. The economic singularity version of the formula is population growth + productivity growth + debt growth + AI + robots. Productivity becomes how much intelligence you can produce per unit of energy, and suddenly the first two engines are back on. We've seen this play out before. In the 1950s a generation walked out of the war and made a load of babies, GDP boomed, and the debt just got smaller and smaller as a share of the economy until nobody thought about it anymore. Same thing's about to happen again. Except this time we have robots. I wrote the whole thing up today, from 1929 to now. Link below.

The old GDP formula was population growth + productivity growth + debt growth. It ran for decades and it worked beautifully for the most part... populations grew, people got more productive, and debt was there to smooth the edges. In recent years demographics have weakened, productivity has stalled, and debt has ended up carrying the whole bloody thing. This is the crux of The Everything Code and it's exactly why we're stuck in this cycle, printing to service what we owe. But there's a way out. The economic singularity version of the formula is population growth + productivity growth + debt growth + AI + robots. Productivity becomes how much intelligence you can produce per unit of energy, and suddenly the first two engines are back on. We've seen this play out before. In the 1950s a generation walked out of the war and made a load of babies, GDP boomed, and the debt just got smaller and smaller as a share of the economy until nobody thought about it anymore. Same thing's about to happen again. Except this time we have robots. I wrote the whole thing up today, from 1929 to now. Link below.

Raoul Pal

78,416 views • 5 days ago

Marc Andreessen: "Productivity growth is about to go through the roof." "Productivity growth for the last 50–60 years has been basically at historical lows... Fundamentally, I think it's because we decided other things are more important." "We decided we didn't want nuclear power. We decided we didn't want a space program. We decided we didn't want cars that went faster than 55." "What we got in the last 50 years was hyper-acceleration in very specifically—chips and software. And then essentially stagnation in everything else." "If either the AI optimists are correct, or the AI doomsayers are correct, productivity growth is about to go through the roof." Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸 at Cisco AI Summit

Marc Andreessen: "Productivity growth is about to go through the roof." "Productivity growth for the last 50–60 years has been basically at historical lows... Fundamentally, I think it's because we decided other things are more important." "We decided we didn't want nuclear power. We decided we didn't want a space program. We decided we didn't want cars that went faster than 55." "What we got in the last 50 years was hyper-acceleration in very specifically—chips and software. And then essentially stagnation in everything else." "If either the AI optimists are correct, or the AI doomsayers are correct, productivity growth is about to go through the roof." Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸 at Cisco AI Summit

a16z

77,012 views • 7 months ago

NEW: White House Press Office Karine Jean-Pierre says Joe Biden is the most successful American President in more than 50 years when it comes to jobs and economic growth, announces that just today the final jobs report under the Biden-Harris administration revealed a gain of 250,000 jobs in its last month, bringing the unemployment rate down to 4.1%, says the Biden-Harris administration has achieved a historic record of consistent job growth, with no months of job losses throughout its tenure, and leaves office touting 16.6 million jobs created and the lowest average unemployment rate for working-age women and Black Americans. No other President in more than five decades has achieved that, she concluded. WATCH

NEW: White House Press Office Karine Jean-Pierre says Joe Biden is the most successful American President in more than 50 years when it comes to jobs and economic growth, announces that just today the final jobs report under the Biden-Harris administration revealed a gain of 250,000 jobs in its last month, bringing the unemployment rate down to 4.1%, says the Biden-Harris administration has achieved a historic record of consistent job growth, with no months of job losses throughout its tenure, and leaves office touting 16.6 million jobs created and the lowest average unemployment rate for working-age women and Black Americans. No other President in more than five decades has achieved that, she concluded. WATCH

Simon Ateba

62,721 views • 1 year ago

🚨 IT'S OFFICIAL: President Trump announces his $5,000 divided payment must be spent in the United States, and that he will pay down the $40T debt through GROWTH "We're going to take care of the 40 trillion over a period of time through growth. We're growing at a faster rate than we've ever grown before." 47 has maintained it does NOT need Congress. Even if it does, it might only need 50+1 votes in the US Senate

🚨 IT'S OFFICIAL: President Trump announces his $5,000 divided payment must be spent in the United States, and that he will pay down the $40T debt through GROWTH "We're going to take care of the 40 trillion over a period of time through growth. We're growing at a faster rate than we've ever grown before." 47 has maintained it does NOT need Congress. Even if it does, it might only need 50+1 votes in the US Senate

Eric Daugherty

75,637 views • 11 days ago

This is the Australian story for about two decades - low productivity, high immigration and declining living standards. “Well Deloitte Access Economics has been producing quarterly economic reports for 30 years - and today’s was among its grimmest. 3 months ago they were forecasting 2% growth for this financial year - now they reckon it’ll be 1.3%. And next year, 1.9% - which will be the longest stretch of sub 2% growth since the 1992 recession. In the text, chief economist Stephen Smith says for too long strong population growth has masked a weak underlying productivity performance - and lifted growth while doing less for living standards. And he’s predicting more of the same - here’s his chart of population growth, history and forecast. Basically, Deloitte is predicting that immigration and population growth will go back to what it was when it was masking weak productivity - and almost double what it was in the early 2000s.”

This is the Australian story for about two decades - low productivity, high immigration and declining living standards. “Well Deloitte Access Economics has been producing quarterly economic reports for 30 years - and today’s was among its grimmest. 3 months ago they were forecasting 2% growth for this financial year - now they reckon it’ll be 1.3%. And next year, 1.9% - which will be the longest stretch of sub 2% growth since the 1992 recession. In the text, chief economist Stephen Smith says for too long strong population growth has masked a weak underlying productivity performance - and lifted growth while doing less for living standards. And he’s predicting more of the same - here’s his chart of population growth, history and forecast. Basically, Deloitte is predicting that immigration and population growth will go back to what it was when it was masking weak productivity - and almost double what it was in the early 2000s.”

Marko Matvikov

40,591 views • 2 months ago