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🇱🇧 Hezbollah's tunnels run too deep to bomb, and that single fact may be why this war has no clean ending Matthew Hoh kept circling one idea: the things driving this conflict can't be shaken loose. Iran won't surrender Hezbollah, Hezbollah won't disarm while Israel sits in Lebanon, and... the Lebanon framework hands every condition to Beirut while asking nothing of Israel. To him, that's not a peace deal. It's the setup for a civil war. On Hormuz, he's blunt: Iran controls it, full stop, and that's the weapon it holds for years, not weeks. Traffic has collapsed back to wartime levels. One cheap drone strike makes the point, and he reads it as Tehran's way of grabbing the one thing that gets Trump's attention, the legacy he thinks Trump will spend the rest of his term protecting. The line that stuck with me was about the root of all of it. Until the Palestinian question is answered, he says, every ceasefire is just another phony pause before the next round. And his most provocative thought? That Trump, loyal to nothing but his own legacy, might break with Israel in a way no president before him ever could. A slim chance. But a real one. Matthew Hohshow more

Mario Nawfal

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🇮🇱🇱🇧 One sharp truth: this ceasefire is not peace, it's a narrative reset. Matthew Hoh just laid it all out. "This ceasefire is propaganda. It allows for the establishment of a narrative that Israel tried to make peace with Hezbollah, but Hezbollah wouldn't accept it." The history gets buried. The occupation stays. And everyone moves on. Matthew Hoh

🇮🇱🇱🇧 One sharp truth: this ceasefire is not peace, it's a narrative reset. Matthew Hoh just laid it all out. "This ceasefire is propaganda. It allows for the establishment of a narrative that Israel tried to make peace with Hezbollah, but Hezbollah wouldn't accept it." The history gets buried. The occupation stays. And everyone moves on. Matthew Hoh

Mario Nawfal

38,563 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

LEBANON AND HEZBOLLAH: A Country on the Edge of Another War. 🇱🇧 🇮🇱 This country has already lived through one ceasefire that collapsed into a full war. Hezbollah is an Iran-backed armed group that's also part of Lebanon's government. After Hamas attacked Israel in October 2023, Hezbollah opened a second front from southern Lebanon... Everything changed in March 2026. When Israel and the US went to war with Iran, Hezbollah's main backer, Hezbollah fired on Israel for the first time since the ceasefire!! Subsucribe to Donald J Trump Posts TruthSocial for more.

LEBANON AND HEZBOLLAH: A Country on the Edge of Another War. 🇱🇧 🇮🇱 This country has already lived through one ceasefire that collapsed into a full war. Hezbollah is an Iran-backed armed group that's also part of Lebanon's government. After Hamas attacked Israel in October 2023, Hezbollah opened a second front from southern Lebanon... Everything changed in March 2026. When Israel and the US went to war with Iran, Hezbollah's main backer, Hezbollah fired on Israel for the first time since the ceasefire!! Subsucribe to Donald J Trump Posts TruthSocial for more.

Donald J Trump Posts TruthSocial

51,877 Aufrufe • vor 24 Tagen

🇱🇧🇮🇱 Israel's condition for peace with Lebanon sounds simple: disarm Hezbollah. In reality, it’s one of the most dangerous things Lebanon could attempt. The Lebanese government banned Hezbollah's military wing last month after it opened fire on Israel. It has been extending state authority into the south, doing everything a fragile government can do short of open confrontation, but it still cannot force the issue. Here is why: the last time a Lebanese government moved aggressively against Hezbollah was 2008. Hezbollah responded by taking over West Beirut in days, and the resulting confrontation ended with the government backing down. Lebanon also remembers what a real civil war looks like, one that lasted from 1975 to 1990 and left the country broken for a generation. So when Israel says disarm Hezbollah as a condition for peace, Lebanon hears: trigger a civil war as a condition for peace. Washington described the talks as constructive, but the two sides entered wanting completely different things: Lebanon asked for a ceasefire, Israel refused to discuss one. The question is not whether Lebanon wants to disarm Hezbollah, most Lebanese do, the question is whether doing so causes more harm than good.

🇱🇧🇮🇱 Israel's condition for peace with Lebanon sounds simple: disarm Hezbollah. In reality, it’s one of the most dangerous things Lebanon could attempt. The Lebanese government banned Hezbollah's military wing last month after it opened fire on Israel. It has been extending state authority into the south, doing everything a fragile government can do short of open confrontation, but it still cannot force the issue. Here is why: the last time a Lebanese government moved aggressively against Hezbollah was 2008. Hezbollah responded by taking over West Beirut in days, and the resulting confrontation ended with the government backing down. Lebanon also remembers what a real civil war looks like, one that lasted from 1975 to 1990 and left the country broken for a generation. So when Israel says disarm Hezbollah as a condition for peace, Lebanon hears: trigger a civil war as a condition for peace. Washington described the talks as constructive, but the two sides entered wanting completely different things: Lebanon asked for a ceasefire, Israel refused to discuss one. The question is not whether Lebanon wants to disarm Hezbollah, most Lebanese do, the question is whether doing so causes more harm than good.

Mario Nawfal

48,267 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

The Iran deal is not just about Iran — one of the big points is Lebanon. Iran war isn’t really over if Israel keeps bombing Lebanon — Trump knows it, also he wants out of it ASAP. But Netanyahu thinks that decision is his and that's a real danger. If Israel hits Beirut, Iran will almost certainly answer — and then Washington has to decide whether it gets dragged right back into the war Trump is trying to escape. Watch LIVE on BitChute at 5:30 Moscow time (2:30 GMT):

The Iran deal is not just about Iran — one of the big points is Lebanon. Iran war isn’t really over if Israel keeps bombing Lebanon — Trump knows it, also he wants out of it ASAP. But Netanyahu thinks that decision is his and that's a real danger. If Israel hits Beirut, Iran will almost certainly answer — and then Washington has to decide whether it gets dragged right back into the war Trump is trying to escape. Watch LIVE on BitChute at 5:30 Moscow time (2:30 GMT):

Rick Sanchez

45,160 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Iran just canceled peace talks because Israel kept bombing Lebanon while the ink was still drying on the MOU I sat down with Professor Foad Izadi from Tehran University and he didn't sugarcoat a single thing Khamenei's statement on the deal, the one everyone's been debating, his read is that the leader didn't want this agreement and the president had to personally guarantee it would protect Iranian interests Iran's position is very simple: ceasefire in Lebanon first, then negotiations, not the other way around The Strait of Hormuz stays closed as leverage, and the professor thinks opening it before seeing real action was a mistake Trump justified Iran's ballistic missile program, Israel Hayom called him a traitor, and the professor still doesn't trust any of it His reasoning: the US left the 2015 deal, Congress is already working with Netanyahu to kill this one, and Trump tweeted about not giving Iran a dime 5 hours after signing His odds on another war between the U.S. and Iran before Trump's term ends: 55 to 65% Is the MOU a genuine reset or just America buying time before round 3? فواد ایزدی Foad Izadi

Iran just canceled peace talks because Israel kept bombing Lebanon while the ink was still drying on the MOU I sat down with Professor Foad Izadi from Tehran University and he didn't sugarcoat a single thing Khamenei's statement on the deal, the one everyone's been debating, his read is that the leader didn't want this agreement and the president had to personally guarantee it would protect Iranian interests Iran's position is very simple: ceasefire in Lebanon first, then negotiations, not the other way around The Strait of Hormuz stays closed as leverage, and the professor thinks opening it before seeing real action was a mistake Trump justified Iran's ballistic missile program, Israel Hayom called him a traitor, and the professor still doesn't trust any of it His reasoning: the US left the 2015 deal, Congress is already working with Netanyahu to kill this one, and Trump tweeted about not giving Iran a dime 5 hours after signing His odds on another war between the U.S. and Iran before Trump's term ends: 55 to 65% Is the MOU a genuine reset or just America buying time before round 3? فواد ایزدی Foad Izadi

Mario Nawfal

261,119 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Excellent interview with Alan Eyre, former U.S diplomat and an expert on Iran. He says: ▫️ Trump cancelled Witkoff/Kushner's trip because he probably heard that Iran wasn't capitulating as he had expected. ▫️U.S. doesn't hold all the cards as Trump claims. Iran holds the Strait of Hormuz. ▫️Both sides are feeling the pain but this a war of survival for Iran but a war of choice for the United States. ▫️No one is winning this war. Not everything is solved with Diplomacy but nothing can be solved without it. ▫️ Regardless of how this war ends the region will not be the same. Whatever deal Trump gets it won't be better than the one he could have gotten before Feb 27th.

Excellent interview with Alan Eyre, former U.S diplomat and an expert on Iran. He says: ▫️ Trump cancelled Witkoff/Kushner's trip because he probably heard that Iran wasn't capitulating as he had expected. ▫️U.S. doesn't hold all the cards as Trump claims. Iran holds the Strait of Hormuz. ▫️Both sides are feeling the pain but this a war of survival for Iran but a war of choice for the United States. ▫️No one is winning this war. Not everything is solved with Diplomacy but nothing can be solved without it. ▫️ Regardless of how this war ends the region will not be the same. Whatever deal Trump gets it won't be better than the one he could have gotten before Feb 27th.

Abdurahman Warsame

61,768 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

🇺🇸🇮🇷 It's a tough pill to swallow, but Matthew Hoh is willing to swallow it. Trump started the Iran war, yes. But he also pulled out, and that matters. "It's tough to give a guy credit for ending a war he started. But I know what you're saying." If the ceasefire holds, give him his flowers. Matthew Hoh

🇺🇸🇮🇷 It's a tough pill to swallow, but Matthew Hoh is willing to swallow it. Trump started the Iran war, yes. But he also pulled out, and that matters. "It's tough to give a guy credit for ending a war he started. But I know what you're saying." If the ceasefire holds, give him his flowers. Matthew Hoh

Mario Nawfal

72,082 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

🇺🇸 The most dangerous variable in the Middle East isn't Iran, Israel, or Hezbollah. It's one man's mood. Matthew Hoh breaks it down. "We are all held captive by what's going on inside of Donald Trump's head." And that, he says, is absolutely terrible to say. Matthew Hoh

🇺🇸 The most dangerous variable in the Middle East isn't Iran, Israel, or Hezbollah. It's one man's mood. Matthew Hoh breaks it down. "We are all held captive by what's going on inside of Donald Trump's head." And that, he says, is absolutely terrible to say. Matthew Hoh

Mario Nawfal

61,738 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

Question: What about Lebanon? Is Lebanon going to be part of a deal? U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio: "Well, Lebanon we’re working on separately. With Lebanon we are engaged now. We have a 45-day ceasefire. We’ve had weekly meetings now and ongoing daily engagements between the government of Lebanon and Israel. The problem is not Lebanon and Israel. The problem is Hezbollah. Just last night Hezbollah put out a statement calling for the overthrow of the Lebanese government. And it just reminds you who you’re dealing with here - by the way, an Iranian proxy, 100% Iranian proxy. And as long as an armed Hezbollah exists, it’s going to be hard to achieve peace in Lebanon because they’re victimizing the people of Lebanon. They’re not just attacking Israel. But we’re working that track with the Lebanese government and the Israeli government. And we’ve made some good progress there - an extended ceasefire, a path forward. We’re going to continue to work on that. Hezbollah is a terrorist group.” Question: "Would it be an understanding that Israel wouldn’t strike Lebanon as part of the deal?” U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio: "Well, Israel always has a right to protect itself. Every country in the world does. So if Hezbollah is going to launch missiles at them, Israel has every right to respond to that or to prevent that from happening. That’s always been understood during the ceasefire, and it will be understood beyond that."

Question: What about Lebanon? Is Lebanon going to be part of a deal? U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio: "Well, Lebanon we’re working on separately. With Lebanon we are engaged now. We have a 45-day ceasefire. We’ve had weekly meetings now and ongoing daily engagements between the government of Lebanon and Israel. The problem is not Lebanon and Israel. The problem is Hezbollah. Just last night Hezbollah put out a statement calling for the overthrow of the Lebanese government. And it just reminds you who you’re dealing with here - by the way, an Iranian proxy, 100% Iranian proxy. And as long as an armed Hezbollah exists, it’s going to be hard to achieve peace in Lebanon because they’re victimizing the people of Lebanon. They’re not just attacking Israel. But we’re working that track with the Lebanese government and the Israeli government. And we’ve made some good progress there - an extended ceasefire, a path forward. We’re going to continue to work on that. Hezbollah is a terrorist group.” Question: "Would it be an understanding that Israel wouldn’t strike Lebanon as part of the deal?” U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio: "Well, Israel always has a right to protect itself. Every country in the world does. So if Hezbollah is going to launch missiles at them, Israel has every right to respond to that or to prevent that from happening. That’s always been understood during the ceasefire, and it will be understood beyond that."

Open Source Intel

59,882 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

“Iran is not going to declare an end to the war while Israel is still attacking Lebanon. It has to be part of the deal. And of course, Bibi won’t play ball because he doesn’t want the war to end. And Trump is just waking up to that fact three months into the war, and he’s not happy about it.” “A lot of what he’s saying is that Bibi should do everything that he says. And now he’s learning that that’s not the way the world works. So constantly over the past three months, Trump is confronted by reality, which totally contradicts the made up story he has about the Iran war in his head. And guess what? In the end, reality is winning out.” “And that’s why we’re in the quagmire we’re in. Because Trump won’t accept the reality. He only wants the world to bend to what’s in his head. In this case, he’s not getting what he wants, so he’s throwing a tantrum.”

“Iran is not going to declare an end to the war while Israel is still attacking Lebanon. It has to be part of the deal. And of course, Bibi won’t play ball because he doesn’t want the war to end. And Trump is just waking up to that fact three months into the war, and he’s not happy about it.” “A lot of what he’s saying is that Bibi should do everything that he says. And now he’s learning that that’s not the way the world works. So constantly over the past three months, Trump is confronted by reality, which totally contradicts the made up story he has about the Iran war in his head. And guess what? In the end, reality is winning out.” “And that’s why we’re in the quagmire we’re in. Because Trump won’t accept the reality. He only wants the world to bend to what’s in his head. In this case, he’s not getting what he wants, so he’s throwing a tantrum.”

Josh Rogin

13,279 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

🚨 JUST NOW: Iran just HELPED broker the new Israel-Lebanon/Hezbollah ceasefire with President Trump and Qatar, seeking to stop the firing on all sides "A U.S. official says it was brokered by Qatar, the United States and with help from Iran." "This is not a retreat for Israel from these established security zones in southern Lebanon and the IDF said that this is not a retreat for Israel."

🚨 JUST NOW: Iran just HELPED broker the new Israel-Lebanon/Hezbollah ceasefire with President Trump and Qatar, seeking to stop the firing on all sides "A U.S. official says it was brokered by Qatar, the United States and with help from Iran." "This is not a retreat for Israel from these established security zones in southern Lebanon and the IDF said that this is not a retreat for Israel."

Eric Daugherty

433,048 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Military Analyst Elijah Magnier thinks the Iran war didn't end, it just moved. Most people are still watching Tehran, waiting to see whether America or Israel strikes Iran again. Elijah thinks they're watching the wrong battlefield. His argument is that the next phase of this conflict won't be fought primarily inside Iran. It will be fought across Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen, where the real objective isn't to attack Iran directly, but to slowly dismantle the network of allies that has protected it for decades. That made a lot of the recent headlines suddenly look very different. The anti-corruption drive in Iraq, the push to disarm Iraqi militias, the renewed mobilization of Saudi and UAE-backed forces inside Yemen, and the talk about Syria confronting Hezbollah. Elijah believes these aren't isolated events; they're all pieces of the same long-term strategy: to isolate Iran step by step until it stands alone. Then he explained why he thinks the Strait of Hormuz has become so important. Washington sees Hormuz as an economic problem, but Iran sees it as leverage. As long as Israel remains in Lebanon, Iranian assets remain frozen, and the wider agreement remains unfulfilled, Elijah says Tehran has no reason to surrender the strongest bargaining chip it still holds. That's why he believes the current ceasefire changes very little. In his view, the war never really stopped; it simply shifted into a different phase. The direct confrontation became too costly for everyone, so now the pressure moves onto Iran's partners instead. By the end of the interview, I wasn't thinking about one war anymore. I was thinking about four separate conflicts that may actually be the same war playing out on different fronts. And if Elijah is right, what we're watching is the opening chapter of a much longer regional campaign. Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺

Military Analyst Elijah Magnier thinks the Iran war didn't end, it just moved. Most people are still watching Tehran, waiting to see whether America or Israel strikes Iran again. Elijah thinks they're watching the wrong battlefield. His argument is that the next phase of this conflict won't be fought primarily inside Iran. It will be fought across Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen, where the real objective isn't to attack Iran directly, but to slowly dismantle the network of allies that has protected it for decades. That made a lot of the recent headlines suddenly look very different. The anti-corruption drive in Iraq, the push to disarm Iraqi militias, the renewed mobilization of Saudi and UAE-backed forces inside Yemen, and the talk about Syria confronting Hezbollah. Elijah believes these aren't isolated events; they're all pieces of the same long-term strategy: to isolate Iran step by step until it stands alone. Then he explained why he thinks the Strait of Hormuz has become so important. Washington sees Hormuz as an economic problem, but Iran sees it as leverage. As long as Israel remains in Lebanon, Iranian assets remain frozen, and the wider agreement remains unfulfilled, Elijah says Tehran has no reason to surrender the strongest bargaining chip it still holds. That's why he believes the current ceasefire changes very little. In his view, the war never really stopped; it simply shifted into a different phase. The direct confrontation became too costly for everyone, so now the pressure moves onto Iran's partners instead. By the end of the interview, I wasn't thinking about one war anymore. I was thinking about four separate conflicts that may actually be the same war playing out on different fronts. And if Elijah is right, what we're watching is the opening chapter of a much longer regional campaign. Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺

Mario Nawfal

222,988 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Everyone else is treating this like a business deal, Iran is playing power politics, and those are not the same game Professor Pape's argument: the Axis of Resistance belt from the Mediterranean to the Red Sea to the Gulf, that's Iran encircling every energy exit point from the Persian Gulf including the ones built to bypass Hormuz Lebanon is the Mediterranean coast, and Hezbollah is who holds it The nuclear question he reframed completely. Iran doesn't need a weapon yet, they need to stay just below the threshold until Israel does something egregious enough to justify crossing it, and Israel keeps giving them excuses He called this the inverse of the 1991 Gulf War, one short conflict flipped the entire regional order End of the escalation trap in his model: when US forces physically leave the region, that's the moment Iran's rise gets formally accepted Vance might be the one to march them out, and that could be his 2028 ticket The war lasted 112 days and changed everything Enjoy this interview with Robert A. Pape

Everyone else is treating this like a business deal, Iran is playing power politics, and those are not the same game Professor Pape's argument: the Axis of Resistance belt from the Mediterranean to the Red Sea to the Gulf, that's Iran encircling every energy exit point from the Persian Gulf including the ones built to bypass Hormuz Lebanon is the Mediterranean coast, and Hezbollah is who holds it The nuclear question he reframed completely. Iran doesn't need a weapon yet, they need to stay just below the threshold until Israel does something egregious enough to justify crossing it, and Israel keeps giving them excuses He called this the inverse of the 1991 Gulf War, one short conflict flipped the entire regional order End of the escalation trap in his model: when US forces physically leave the region, that's the moment Iran's rise gets formally accepted Vance might be the one to march them out, and that could be his 2028 ticket The war lasted 112 days and changed everything Enjoy this interview with Robert A. Pape

Mario Nawfal

271,670 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🇱🇧 Three forces are colliding in Lebanon with zero overlap, and the blunt verdict is this: the war never ended, it just changed shape... Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar drew it as three circles that refuse to meet. The US-Iran MOU, the new Israel-Lebanon framework, and the simple fact of Hezbollah's existence inside Lebanon. No common ground, no Venn overlap, a true impasse. And impasses, he noted, break one of two ways: frozen conflict, or a war to force one circle into another. The tell he's watching is Admiral Brad Cooper meeting Lebanese commanders in Beirut this week. The U.S. already pours billions into the Lebanese army, so the question is whether these new talks aim to push that army into directly confronting Hezbollah, a fight he says it would lose. If that's the goal, war is coming. If not, the impasse simply grinds on. Then he zoomed out, and it got even darker. Yemen's tribal alliances reassembling, UAE-backed against Saudi-backed, US-backed against Iran-backed, all of it hardening into proxy lines across Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen at once. His phrase for where the region sits: everyone's in a bumper car and nobody has brakes. He left me with the comparison that lingers. Southern Lebanon, he said, is starting to look a lot like southern Vietnam.

🇱🇧 Three forces are colliding in Lebanon with zero overlap, and the blunt verdict is this: the war never ended, it just changed shape... Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar drew it as three circles that refuse to meet. The US-Iran MOU, the new Israel-Lebanon framework, and the simple fact of Hezbollah's existence inside Lebanon. No common ground, no Venn overlap, a true impasse. And impasses, he noted, break one of two ways: frozen conflict, or a war to force one circle into another. The tell he's watching is Admiral Brad Cooper meeting Lebanese commanders in Beirut this week. The U.S. already pours billions into the Lebanese army, so the question is whether these new talks aim to push that army into directly confronting Hezbollah, a fight he says it would lose. If that's the goal, war is coming. If not, the impasse simply grinds on. Then he zoomed out, and it got even darker. Yemen's tribal alliances reassembling, UAE-backed against Saudi-backed, US-backed against Iran-backed, all of it hardening into proxy lines across Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen at once. His phrase for where the region sits: everyone's in a bumper car and nobody has brakes. He left me with the comparison that lingers. Southern Lebanon, he said, is starting to look a lot like southern Vietnam.

Mario Nawfal

78,903 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Trump Says U.S. and Iran Talks Begin Tomorrow Iran has NOT confirmed this, NO ONE HAS Donald Trump claims Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Iran all asked him to call off strikes set to go the night before, an assault he called the biggest since WORLD WAR II. He framed a deal as the way to save lives, first on the Strait of Hormuz, then on the nuclear file. He admitted no deadline exists and that the U.S. is ready to strike any time it wants. Every claim about who begged for restraint comes from ONE man, and the side he says asked has said nothing.

Trump Says U.S. and Iran Talks Begin Tomorrow Iran has NOT confirmed this, NO ONE HAS Donald Trump claims Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Iran all asked him to call off strikes set to go the night before, an assault he called the biggest since WORLD WAR II. He framed a deal as the way to save lives, first on the Strait of Hormuz, then on the nuclear file. He admitted no deadline exists and that the U.S. is ready to strike any time it wants. Every claim about who begged for restraint comes from ONE man, and the side he says asked has said nothing.

Ryan Rozbiani

15,826 Aufrufe • vor 7 Tagen

Netanyahu is heading to the White House this week. Trita Parsi says he's arriving wounded, defensive, and having sold Trump a war that turned into disaster. But the real agenda isn't Iran. It's Lebanon. Parsi believes he'll push Trump to give the Israel-Lebanon agreement precedence over the MOU, decouple Lebanon from Iran's demands entirely, and quietly lay the groundwork for the MOU collapsing. If he succeeds, a Lebanese civil war becomes much more likely. On the notion that Trump will simply restart the war after the midterms: "If there is a military option, why isn't he just using it?" If it takes years, it's not a solution, it's just the rest of Trump's presidency being consumed by war. He called the Lebanese government's deal with Israel "absolutely bizarre," saying it essentially told Israel it could stay in Lebanon until Hezbollah is disarmed, which the Lebanese army cannot do. His warning if the MOU fails: not a return to full war, but something potentially worse... lower intensity conflict spreading further geographically through proxies, with no decisive outcome in sight. I always learn a lot from my conversations with Trita Parsi, enjoy!

Netanyahu is heading to the White House this week. Trita Parsi says he's arriving wounded, defensive, and having sold Trump a war that turned into disaster. But the real agenda isn't Iran. It's Lebanon. Parsi believes he'll push Trump to give the Israel-Lebanon agreement precedence over the MOU, decouple Lebanon from Iran's demands entirely, and quietly lay the groundwork for the MOU collapsing. If he succeeds, a Lebanese civil war becomes much more likely. On the notion that Trump will simply restart the war after the midterms: "If there is a military option, why isn't he just using it?" If it takes years, it's not a solution, it's just the rest of Trump's presidency being consumed by war. He called the Lebanese government's deal with Israel "absolutely bizarre," saying it essentially told Israel it could stay in Lebanon until Hezbollah is disarmed, which the Lebanese army cannot do. His warning if the MOU fails: not a return to full war, but something potentially worse... lower intensity conflict spreading further geographically through proxies, with no decisive outcome in sight. I always learn a lot from my conversations with Trita Parsi, enjoy!

Mario Nawfal

388,163 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🚨🇮🇱🇱🇧🇮🇷 Israel's finance minister said 10 apartment buildings should be destroyed for every Hezbollah drone. Their defense minister said Lebanon will get the same treatment as Gaza. Fmr. Marine Matthew Hoh says the conquest of southern Lebanon isn't improvised, tracing back to the earliest Zionist plans and seen as a prerequisite to annexing the West Bank. Netanyahu now faces his fiercest political opposition since October 7th, with Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, two of Israel's most prominent hawks who've slammed the Lebanon ceasefire as premature and insufficient, joining forces. Iran will not sign any deal that excludes Lebanon, which puts the U.S, Israel, and Iran on a collision course with no obvious exit. Matthew Hoh

🚨🇮🇱🇱🇧🇮🇷 Israel's finance minister said 10 apartment buildings should be destroyed for every Hezbollah drone. Their defense minister said Lebanon will get the same treatment as Gaza. Fmr. Marine Matthew Hoh says the conquest of southern Lebanon isn't improvised, tracing back to the earliest Zionist plans and seen as a prerequisite to annexing the West Bank. Netanyahu now faces his fiercest political opposition since October 7th, with Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, two of Israel's most prominent hawks who've slammed the Lebanon ceasefire as premature and insufficient, joining forces. Iran will not sign any deal that excludes Lebanon, which puts the U.S, Israel, and Iran on a collision course with no obvious exit. Matthew Hoh

Mario Nawfal

28,416 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

🇺🇸🇮🇷 A deal on the Strait of Hormuz is close, and Trump is about to declare "victory" in a war he did not win. Elijah Magnier, veteran war correspondent who has covered conflicts across the Middle East for decades, has a blunt assessment of where this ends: Iran will have TOTAL control of the world's most critical oil chokepoint, a reality that did not exist before February 28th. Trump hasn't achieved regime change or a nuclear deal, Hormuz is now formally under Iranian supervision, and the Gulf states are being forced to recognize Iran as the dominant regional power, whether they like it or not On why Iran will not make it easy: "This is the last opportunity, and because it is the last opportunity, Iran is not going to step back on lifting all the sanctions and having the money back" On Lebanon, he believes only a finalized Iran deal gives Tehran the leverage to truly force Israel into a genuine Lebanon ceasefire. Neither of us feel this war will restart, as Trump NEEDS a way out of this, even if the victory he sells bears no resemblance to the one he promised. Pleasure as always, Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺

🇺🇸🇮🇷 A deal on the Strait of Hormuz is close, and Trump is about to declare "victory" in a war he did not win. Elijah Magnier, veteran war correspondent who has covered conflicts across the Middle East for decades, has a blunt assessment of where this ends: Iran will have TOTAL control of the world's most critical oil chokepoint, a reality that did not exist before February 28th. Trump hasn't achieved regime change or a nuclear deal, Hormuz is now formally under Iranian supervision, and the Gulf states are being forced to recognize Iran as the dominant regional power, whether they like it or not On why Iran will not make it easy: "This is the last opportunity, and because it is the last opportunity, Iran is not going to step back on lifting all the sanctions and having the money back" On Lebanon, he believes only a finalized Iran deal gives Tehran the leverage to truly force Israel into a genuine Lebanon ceasefire. Neither of us feel this war will restart, as Trump NEEDS a way out of this, even if the victory he sells bears no resemblance to the one he promised. Pleasure as always, Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺

Mario Nawfal

284,621 Aufrufe • vor 4 Tagen

🚨 JUST NOW: President Trump’s team and Qatar have reportedly helped broker a new Israel–Hezbollah ceasefire in Lebanon, with Iran also involved, as all sides try to stop the firing and keep the Iran peace process alive. That is the part the media will try to bury. This is not Israel retreating from its established security zones in southern Lebanon, and even the IDF is making that clear. This is Trump trying to stop another regional fire from exploding while the bigger Iran deal is still on the table. No more chaos. No more endless escalation. Give peace a chance, but verify every single move. 🇺🇸🙏🏻🔥

🚨 JUST NOW: President Trump’s team and Qatar have reportedly helped broker a new Israel–Hezbollah ceasefire in Lebanon, with Iran also involved, as all sides try to stop the firing and keep the Iran peace process alive. That is the part the media will try to bury. This is not Israel retreating from its established security zones in southern Lebanon, and even the IDF is making that clear. This is Trump trying to stop another regional fire from exploding while the bigger Iran deal is still on the table. No more chaos. No more endless escalation. Give peace a chance, but verify every single move. 🇺🇸🙏🏻🔥

ⁿᵉʷˢ Barron Trump 🇺🇸

61,619 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

JUST NOW Trump is asked “What leverage have you got with the Hezbollah and Israel conflict?” Specifically about Hezbollah and Israel. From this, he hasn’t given a straight answer at all, he mentions the Iran, the Blockade and having a Mighty Military. But surely he could have just said that since Hezbollah is a proxy/answers to Iran, and each time its Hezbollah firing first; if they keep attacking Israel that’s a violation of the deal and we’ll go back to fighting. Hezbollah attacking Israel is no different from Iran attacking Israel. If Iran wants Lebanon in the deal, fine, just say that if Hezbollah attacks Israel, then they’ve broken the deal. He can’t seem to say those words out loud though.

JUST NOW Trump is asked “What leverage have you got with the Hezbollah and Israel conflict?” Specifically about Hezbollah and Israel. From this, he hasn’t given a straight answer at all, he mentions the Iran, the Blockade and having a Mighty Military. But surely he could have just said that since Hezbollah is a proxy/answers to Iran, and each time its Hezbollah firing first; if they keep attacking Israel that’s a violation of the deal and we’ll go back to fighting. Hezbollah attacking Israel is no different from Iran attacking Israel. If Iran wants Lebanon in the deal, fine, just say that if Hezbollah attacks Israel, then they’ve broken the deal. He can’t seem to say those words out loud though.

Kosher

13,036 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat