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HODGES: Real question is whether or not Kremlin will decide to mobilize population of Moscow and St. Petersburg. If all those privileged young people suddenly find themselves putting on green uniform of Russian army, then enthusiasm to support this war will really drop, I guess.

Kate from Kharkiv

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58,841 просмотров • 1 месяц назад •via X (Twitter)

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HODGES: When families in Moscow or St. Petersburg start seeing their little Ivan sent off to an army after mass mobilization, on top of gas shortages throughout Russia, on top of seeing smoke from burning refineries, then Russians will know that war has come to their front door.

HODGES: When families in Moscow or St. Petersburg start seeing their little Ivan sent off to an army after mass mobilization, on top of gas shortages throughout Russia, on top of seeing smoke from burning refineries, then Russians will know that war has come to their front door.

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HODGES: I don't think Russia is bottomless pit of manpower. Many of the youngest ones are either dead or have fled the country. Year ago, I heard Putin complaining there weren't enough people to work in the factories. Well, no shit, because they're all dead, gone, or deployed. The vast majority of Russian troops come from well outside St. Petersburg and Moscow. They come from poorer regions of Russian Federation, where people are happy to take signing bonuses to join the army. Kremlin seems to have studiously avoided any mobilization that would require pulling people from Moscow and St. Petersburg, because it would then be impossible to hide the scale of the disaster.

HODGES: I don't think Russia is bottomless pit of manpower. Many of the youngest ones are either dead or have fled the country. Year ago, I heard Putin complaining there weren't enough people to work in the factories. Well, no shit, because they're all dead, gone, or deployed. The vast majority of Russian troops come from well outside St. Petersburg and Moscow. They come from poorer regions of Russian Federation, where people are happy to take signing bonuses to join the army. Kremlin seems to have studiously avoided any mobilization that would require pulling people from Moscow and St. Petersburg, because it would then be impossible to hide the scale of the disaster.

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159,381 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

HODGES: This fairy tale about Russians being able to suffer better than anybody, that's absolute fairy tale. Fact is, none of oligarchs are suffering. Most of upper class in Moscow and St. Petersburg, they're not going to suffer. We see all these videos of Russian people crying because their holidays have been ruined. So, they're as spoiled as anybody else. 90% that are not in upper class or upper middle class, they're good at suffering because they've never had it any better or anything good. People who are counting on Russian people being able to just endure more and more, I think, are misreading the actual situation there. Russian people are starting to wonder what the hell is going on. They will either get really mad and do something about it, or they will put pressure on government to stop the war.

HODGES: This fairy tale about Russians being able to suffer better than anybody, that's absolute fairy tale. Fact is, none of oligarchs are suffering. Most of upper class in Moscow and St. Petersburg, they're not going to suffer. We see all these videos of Russian people crying because their holidays have been ruined. So, they're as spoiled as anybody else. 90% that are not in upper class or upper middle class, they're good at suffering because they've never had it any better or anything good. People who are counting on Russian people being able to just endure more and more, I think, are misreading the actual situation there. Russian people are starting to wonder what the hell is going on. They will either get really mad and do something about it, or they will put pressure on government to stop the war.

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STUBB: If you look at the reasons for Putin to end this war, Russian economy, which is doing badly, won’t be a reason. Dead or wounded soldiers, over a million already, and it’s not making a difference in Russia won’t be a reason either. It will be about a threat to the regime. The thing that might make a difference is people turning against the war. And now we’re seeing, with what I call legitimate opinion polls, that about 65% of Russians want to end the war. Why? Because Ukraine is hitting oil refineries, and therefore we’re seeing rationing of petrol, gasoline, and diesel. We’re seeing high prices, etc., etc. Also closing of the internet. And then the big question is, will Russia mobilize? If Russia mobilizes 300,000 to 500,000, it will have direct impact on young men in St. Petersburg and Moscow.

STUBB: If you look at the reasons for Putin to end this war, Russian economy, which is doing badly, won’t be a reason. Dead or wounded soldiers, over a million already, and it’s not making a difference in Russia won’t be a reason either. It will be about a threat to the regime. The thing that might make a difference is people turning against the war. And now we’re seeing, with what I call legitimate opinion polls, that about 65% of Russians want to end the war. Why? Because Ukraine is hitting oil refineries, and therefore we’re seeing rationing of petrol, gasoline, and diesel. We’re seeing high prices, etc., etc. Also closing of the internet. And then the big question is, will Russia mobilize? If Russia mobilizes 300,000 to 500,000, it will have direct impact on young men in St. Petersburg and Moscow.

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🚨🤡What a jerk. Stubb believes that for the war to end, Russians must live poorly and suffer. Including children. -Could long-range Ukrainian drone strikes push Russia to negotiate? -I think our assessment in Finland, as a neighboring country, is that economic pressure alone will not stop this war. The situation on the battlefield, for example, the loss of about 35,000 Russian soldiers per month, will also not stop this war. But the strategic thinking of the Russian leadership will change if the Russian population begins to oppose the war. And that's exactly what's happening now. There are many reasons. The war is starting to get too close to ordinary people: strikes are affecting St. Petersburg, Moscow, the Crimean Peninsula. This is affecting people's lives: for example, children's summer vacations. There are internet outages, long lines at gas stations. It is precisely these factors that will likely force Russia to reconsider the situation and, hopefully, push it towards negotiations.

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