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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 HORIZONTAL ESCALATION: THE MILLION-MAN ARMY Iran has been preparing for this day since 1979, and Robert Pape explains why "homegrown" regime change is failing. Separatist groups are no match for a million-man army that knows the rugged, mountainous terrain of its own homeland. The recent strikes in Azerbaijan... show more

Mario Nawfal

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55,532 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten •via X (Twitter)

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🚨🇺🇸 🇮🇷 THE ESCALATION LADDER: BEYOND RED LINES The regional war we are witnessing is far more than a "Venezuela-style" operation. Professor Robert Pape explains that Iran has leaped over critical steps on the escalation ladder. Daily strikes in the Gulf and tight control over the Strait of Hormuz prove the strategy is backfiring. Two weeks into the bombing, and Iran is actually stronger and more in control of oil than when it started. Robert A. Pape

🚨🇺🇸 🇮🇷 THE ESCALATION LADDER: BEYOND RED LINES The regional war we are witnessing is far more than a "Venezuela-style" operation. Professor Robert Pape explains that Iran has leaped over critical steps on the escalation ladder. Daily strikes in the Gulf and tight control over the Strait of Hormuz prove the strategy is backfiring. Two weeks into the bombing, and Iran is actually stronger and more in control of oil than when it started. Robert A. Pape

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Controlling the Persian Gulf is now a high-stakes chess match over the pipeline choke points. Professor Robert Pape explains that Iran is weaponizing cheap drone tech to manipulate global shipping routes, and simply building alternative routes may be insufficient to change the dynamics of control. "They want to control the areas where the pipelines would come out as well." Robert A. Pape

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Controlling the Persian Gulf is now a high-stakes chess match over the pipeline choke points. Professor Robert Pape explains that Iran is weaponizing cheap drone tech to manipulate global shipping routes, and simply building alternative routes may be insufficient to change the dynamics of control. "They want to control the areas where the pipelines would come out as well." Robert A. Pape

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"I have studied every air campaign since WWI... I've modelled the bombing of Fordow and regime change in Iran for 20 years... We are now in the grip of the escalation trap... This has never worked in over 100 years... Trump is up against the weight of history" - Robert A. Pape.

"I have studied every air campaign since WWI... I've modelled the bombing of Fordow and regime change in Iran for 20 years... We are now in the grip of the escalation trap... This has never worked in over 100 years... Trump is up against the weight of history" - Robert A. Pape.

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🇮🇷🇺🇸 Make no mistake, Iran is WINNING this war Political scientist Prof. Robert Pape: "They're not just inflicting costs, but they're also persuading the world that the probability of success of Trump's strategies is virtually zilch. That is what is demoralizing Americans. That's what demoralizes the U.S military, and that is why Iran has been gaining the upper hand." Robert A. Pape

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Make no mistake, Iran is WINNING this war Political scientist Prof. Robert Pape: "They're not just inflicting costs, but they're also persuading the world that the probability of success of Trump's strategies is virtually zilch. That is what is demoralizing Americans. That's what demoralizes the U.S military, and that is why Iran has been gaining the upper hand." Robert A. Pape

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 TARGETING LIFE: THE GULF’S NEW VULNERABILITY Desalination plants are the new front line of this conflict. Robert Pape warns that strikes on Bahrain and Iran are targeting the very survival of the region. Israel’s "opportunistic expansion" in moments of chaos is a strategy that often results in a long-run loss for security. Water and oil facilities are being traded as targets, creating a cycle of retaliation that threatens every nation in the Gulf. Robert A. Pape

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 TARGETING LIFE: THE GULF’S NEW VULNERABILITY Desalination plants are the new front line of this conflict. Robert Pape warns that strikes on Bahrain and Iran are targeting the very survival of the region. Israel’s "opportunistic expansion" in moments of chaos is a strategy that often results in a long-run loss for security. Water and oil facilities are being traded as targets, creating a cycle of retaliation that threatens every nation in the Gulf. Robert A. Pape

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🇮🇷🇺🇸 Trump's fatal error with Iran is pushing for a quick victory Political analyst Prof. Robert Pape: "When you're in a no-win scenario, you've got to change the scenario. By sticking with this short time horizon between now and January, President Trump is playing right into Iran's hands. The only way you're going to change this is if you change the time horizon." Robert A. Pape

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Trump's fatal error with Iran is pushing for a quick victory Political analyst Prof. Robert Pape: "When you're in a no-win scenario, you've got to change the scenario. By sticking with this short time horizon between now and January, President Trump is playing right into Iran's hands. The only way you're going to change this is if you change the time horizon." Robert A. Pape

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🇺🇸 🇮🇷 The canceled U.S. strikes on Iran were far more than just political rhetoric, according to Robert Pape. The political scientist says Washington's actions went well beyond public threats. State Department warnings were issued, allies were alerted, and military preparations were already underway before President Trump called the operation off. Pape argues the key unanswered question isn't whether the strikes were a bluff, but how far the military planning had actually progressed before the order was reversed. "This wasn't just a matter of President Trump giving some verbal bluffing." Robert A. Pape

🇺🇸 🇮🇷 The canceled U.S. strikes on Iran were far more than just political rhetoric, according to Robert Pape. The political scientist says Washington's actions went well beyond public threats. State Department warnings were issued, allies were alerted, and military preparations were already underway before President Trump called the operation off. Pape argues the key unanswered question isn't whether the strikes were a bluff, but how far the military planning had actually progressed before the order was reversed. "This wasn't just a matter of President Trump giving some verbal bluffing." Robert A. Pape

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 WAR BY YEAR’S END: IRAN’S GROWING GRIP By the end of the year, Robert Pape predicts that the strategic playing field will likely tilt even further in Tehran’s favor. History shows the probability of a "mechanistic" regime change is only about 5% which is a gamble the U.S. can't afford to rely on. With no good military option to change the current trajectory, Iran is already looking to China and Russia to cement their influence. Robert A. Pape

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 WAR BY YEAR’S END: IRAN’S GROWING GRIP By the end of the year, Robert Pape predicts that the strategic playing field will likely tilt even further in Tehran’s favor. History shows the probability of a "mechanistic" regime change is only about 5% which is a gamble the U.S. can't afford to rely on. With no good military option to change the current trajectory, Iran is already looking to China and Russia to cement their influence. Robert A. Pape

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🇺🇸 🇮🇷 Robert Pape says people are misreading the canceled U.S. strikes on Iran. The political scientist argues the real story isn't whether the operation was a bluff, but what the cancellation reveals about Washington's decision-making. In his view, this is the White House caught between military action and restraint, unable to commit fully to either. Pape says the answer to whether the strikes were genuine lies in the military preparations, from pilots and tankers to launch orders, all of which can be traced after the fact. "This is not a sign of de-escalation... what you're seeing is strategic paralysis." Robert A. Pape

🇺🇸 🇮🇷 Robert Pape says people are misreading the canceled U.S. strikes on Iran. The political scientist argues the real story isn't whether the operation was a bluff, but what the cancellation reveals about Washington's decision-making. In his view, this is the White House caught between military action and restraint, unable to commit fully to either. Pape says the answer to whether the strikes were genuine lies in the military preparations, from pilots and tankers to launch orders, all of which can be traced after the fact. "This is not a sign of de-escalation... what you're seeing is strategic paralysis." Robert A. Pape

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🚨🇺🇸 🇮🇷 THE OVERCONFIDENCE BUBBLE: A RADICAL NEW LEADERSHIP Policymakers often get stuck in a bubble of overconfidence, but Robert Pape warns that decapitation strikes rarely go as planned. The new Supreme Leader is proving to be even more radical, demanding full U.S. withdrawal and reparations for the damage caused. Big countries lose small wars when they treat a medium-sized, prepared power like Iran as if it were a minor obstacle. Robert A. Pape

🚨🇺🇸 🇮🇷 THE OVERCONFIDENCE BUBBLE: A RADICAL NEW LEADERSHIP Policymakers often get stuck in a bubble of overconfidence, but Robert Pape warns that decapitation strikes rarely go as planned. The new Supreme Leader is proving to be even more radical, demanding full U.S. withdrawal and reparations for the damage caused. Big countries lose small wars when they treat a medium-sized, prepared power like Iran as if it were a minor obstacle. Robert A. Pape

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump is currently trapped in a “spiral phase of the escalation trap” regarding Iran, where the illusion of easy diplomatic or military leverage has finally vanished. Robert Pape says the U.S. has no power to compel Iran to stop its nuclear program through air or naval strikes alone; the only remaining military path would require ground forces to physically "haul out" enriched material. A move the U.S. is unlikely to make. “Iran is on its way to becoming the 4th center of world power with or without war by the United States.” Robert A. Pape

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump is currently trapped in a “spiral phase of the escalation trap” regarding Iran, where the illusion of easy diplomatic or military leverage has finally vanished. Robert Pape says the U.S. has no power to compel Iran to stop its nuclear program through air or naval strikes alone; the only remaining military path would require ground forces to physically "haul out" enriched material. A move the U.S. is unlikely to make. “Iran is on its way to becoming the 4th center of world power with or without war by the United States.” Robert A. Pape

Mario Nawfal

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The current U.S.-Iran negotiations represent a massive strategic shift. Professor Robert Pape argued that despite Western media spin, Iran is actually in the driver's seat and setting the terms while the Trump administration scrambles to adjust. He suggested the escalation trap the world is facing signals a permanent new era of global energy and economic instability, rather than a temporary hurdle. "We are in an era of instability, not a moment of instability." Robert A. Pape

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The current U.S.-Iran negotiations represent a massive strategic shift. Professor Robert Pape argued that despite Western media spin, Iran is actually in the driver's seat and setting the terms while the Trump administration scrambles to adjust. He suggested the escalation trap the world is facing signals a permanent new era of global energy and economic instability, rather than a temporary hurdle. "We are in an era of instability, not a moment of instability." Robert A. Pape

Mario Nawfal

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Economic sanctions are being sold as an alternative to war. But according to Professor Robert Pape, they can become an escalation trap. Pape argues that Trump’s “maximum economic pressure” campaign may succeed tactically by inflicting enormous economic pain on Iran, while failing strategically to force Tehran to surrender. Instead, it could harden the regime and make retaliation more likely. The historical record is ugly. Pape points to Japan in 1941, when American oil sanctions helped convince Japanese leaders that they were facing political and economic extinction. Their response was Pearl Harbor. Iran could face a similar calculation: if sanctions are designed to eventually destroy the regime, Tehran has less reason to simply absorb the punishment and wait. It has every reason to lash back. And Iran has thousands of miles of land borders through which sanctioned goods can still move. Closing those corridors would require military force, potentially dragging the U.S. deeper into the war just to make the sanctions work. Pape's warning is brutally simple: Sanctions may not be the off-ramp from war. They may be the road to the next escalation. Robert A. Pape

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Economic sanctions are being sold as an alternative to war. But according to Professor Robert Pape, they can become an escalation trap. Pape argues that Trump’s “maximum economic pressure” campaign may succeed tactically by inflicting enormous economic pain on Iran, while failing strategically to force Tehran to surrender. Instead, it could harden the regime and make retaliation more likely. The historical record is ugly. Pape points to Japan in 1941, when American oil sanctions helped convince Japanese leaders that they were facing political and economic extinction. Their response was Pearl Harbor. Iran could face a similar calculation: if sanctions are designed to eventually destroy the regime, Tehran has less reason to simply absorb the punishment and wait. It has every reason to lash back. And Iran has thousands of miles of land borders through which sanctioned goods can still move. Closing those corridors would require military force, potentially dragging the U.S. deeper into the war just to make the sanctions work. Pape's warning is brutally simple: Sanctions may not be the off-ramp from war. They may be the road to the next escalation. Robert A. Pape

Mario Nawfal

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🇺🇸🇮🇷History doesn't lie, and Political Scientist Robert Pape has 30 years of data to prove it. "American sanctions, oil sanctions is the American way of war. It is not the peace path." Trump is caught in an escalation trap, and every exit costs him everything. Robert A. Pape

🇺🇸🇮🇷History doesn't lie, and Political Scientist Robert Pape has 30 years of data to prove it. "American sanctions, oil sanctions is the American way of war. It is not the peace path." Trump is caught in an escalation trap, and every exit costs him everything. Robert A. Pape

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🇺🇸 Washington just parked 250+ combat jets, two carrier strike groups, and a fleet of tankers and spy planes on Iran's doorstep. The infrastructure for a weeks-long air campaign designed to grind the regime down. Trump appears to be preparing for a very long conversation. Source: Robert A. Pape Media: Combat Aviationist YT

🇺🇸 Washington just parked 250+ combat jets, two carrier strike groups, and a fleet of tankers and spy planes on Iran's doorstep. The infrastructure for a weeks-long air campaign designed to grind the regime down. Trump appears to be preparing for a very long conversation. Source: Robert A. Pape Media: Combat Aviationist YT

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🇮🇷🇺🇸 University of Chicago political scientist Robert Pape says “we’re about to enter the period of maximum leverage for Iran.” He told CNN that as global oil inventories hit a projected “cliff” in late July and early August, Tehran’s bargaining power will surge. “Why would it cut a deal when its leverage is about to grow?” he asked. Robert A. Pape

🇮🇷🇺🇸 University of Chicago political scientist Robert Pape says “we’re about to enter the period of maximum leverage for Iran.” He told CNN that as global oil inventories hit a projected “cliff” in late July and early August, Tehran’s bargaining power will surge. “Why would it cut a deal when its leverage is about to grow?” he asked. Robert A. Pape

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🇮🇱🇱🇧 The Shia Muslims in southern Lebanon have no one in their corner. Political Scientist Robert Pape breaks down why the ten-day ceasefire may be cover for something far more dangerous. “If I’m a Shia living in southern Lebanon, I’m shaking in my boots, because I don’t think the Christians are going to bail me out once the Israeli army begins its cleansing operations.” Robert A. Pape

🇮🇱🇱🇧 The Shia Muslims in southern Lebanon have no one in their corner. Political Scientist Robert Pape breaks down why the ten-day ceasefire may be cover for something far more dangerous. “If I’m a Shia living in southern Lebanon, I’m shaking in my boots, because I don’t think the Christians are going to bail me out once the Israeli army begins its cleansing operations.” Robert A. Pape

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Sanctions get sold as the off-ramp from war, and they've been the on-ramp since 1914. Political scientist Robert Pape has spent 30 years studying blockades alongside bombing campaigns, and calls them the two great escalation traps: "They are likely to be tactically successful and strategically fail." They'll bite, they'll hurt, and they'll harden the regime rather than topple it. Then comes the real damage, because failed sanctions retire the argument that force is a last resort, priming the country doing the squeezing to reach for it. Robert A. Pape

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Sanctions get sold as the off-ramp from war, and they've been the on-ramp since 1914. Political scientist Robert Pape has spent 30 years studying blockades alongside bombing campaigns, and calls them the two great escalation traps: "They are likely to be tactically successful and strategically fail." They'll bite, they'll hurt, and they'll harden the regime rather than topple it. Then comes the real damage, because failed sanctions retire the argument that force is a last resort, priming the country doing the squeezing to reach for it. Robert A. Pape

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Were the last 13 days of strikes tactical prep for a possible MOVE ONSHORE near Iran's coast? Prof. Robert Pape says the bombing hit tactical/defensive targets, not the underground ballistic missile sites Iran actually fires from. His prediction: expect a renewed suppression push this week, plus the U.S. pulling every spare Patriot interceptor it can find. Asia, maybe Ukraine too. This campaign wasn't fully successful in March or April either. Why would round 3 be different? Robert A. Pape

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Were the last 13 days of strikes tactical prep for a possible MOVE ONSHORE near Iran's coast? Prof. Robert Pape says the bombing hit tactical/defensive targets, not the underground ballistic missile sites Iran actually fires from. His prediction: expect a renewed suppression push this week, plus the U.S. pulling every spare Patriot interceptor it can find. Asia, maybe Ukraine too. This campaign wasn't fully successful in March or April either. Why would round 3 be different? Robert A. Pape

Mario Nawfal

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🇮🇷 🇺🇸 Robert Pape says the real growing danger is the power vacuum emerging across the Middle East. Recent attacks and proxy activity shouldn't be viewed only as coordinated Iranian signaling. Instead, he says they're part of a broader regional scramble as America's long-standing dominance weakens. According to Pape, when a dominant power retreats, other states and armed groups move to fill the space, increasing the risk of horizontal escalation across multiple fronts rather than one direct U.S.-Iran war. "When the preeminent power declines, you get a power vacuum... and power vacuums don't stay still." Robert A. Pape

🇮🇷 🇺🇸 Robert Pape says the real growing danger is the power vacuum emerging across the Middle East. Recent attacks and proxy activity shouldn't be viewed only as coordinated Iranian signaling. Instead, he says they're part of a broader regional scramble as America's long-standing dominance weakens. According to Pape, when a dominant power retreats, other states and armed groups move to fill the space, increasing the risk of horizontal escalation across multiple fronts rather than one direct U.S.-Iran war. "When the preeminent power declines, you get a power vacuum... and power vacuums don't stay still." Robert A. Pape

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