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I almost turned bearish on this Bitcoin pullback. But what if Bitcoin is following Google’s post-2021 recovery path? The structure looks surprisingly similar. Break above the 2021 top. Retest. Higher low. Expansion. Google already completed the move. Bitcoin may just be a few steps behind.

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Merlijn The Trader

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46,967 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад •via X (Twitter)

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I STARED AT THIS FOR TEN MINUTES TRYING TO PROVE IT WRONG. I COULDN'T. I overlaid Google on Bitcoin. Google broke its 2021 high, retested it, then went vertical to $350. Bitcoin broke its 2021 high. And it's retesting the exact same zone right now. One is a $2T tech giant. The other is Bitcoin. Same chart. One cycle apart. You already know how the Google one ended.
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I STARED AT THIS FOR TEN MINUTES TRYING TO PROVE IT WRONG. I COULDN'T. I overlaid Google on Bitcoin. Google broke its 2021 high, retested it, then went vertical to $350. Bitcoin broke its 2021 high. And it's retesting the exact same zone right now. One is a $2T tech giant. The other is Bitcoin. Same chart. One cycle apart. You already know how the Google one ended.

Merlijn The Trader

90,815 просмотров • 23 дней назад

🚨WARNING: THE FINAL DUMP IS HERE Right now, the $BTC chart looks almost identical to the 2021 chart. Bitcoin keeps following the same structure: → Same final pump → Same cycle top → Same violent rejection → Same first major correction → Same weak recovery → Same setup before the real capitulation Now let's look at the numbers: 2021 cycle → BTC dropped around 77% 2026 cycle → BTC dropped around 51% If this pattern continues, the $BTC bottom could be around $45K–$40K. The moment I make my first buy, I'll post it HERE. You'll see it here first. Turn notifications on.
0:16

🚨WARNING: THE FINAL DUMP IS HERE Right now, the $BTC chart looks almost identical to the 2021 chart. Bitcoin keeps following the same structure: → Same final pump → Same cycle top → Same violent rejection → Same first major correction → Same weak recovery → Same setup before the real capitulation Now let's look at the numbers: 2021 cycle → BTC dropped around 77% 2026 cycle → BTC dropped around 51% If this pattern continues, the $BTC bottom could be around $45K–$40K. The moment I make my first buy, I'll post it HERE. You'll see it here first. Turn notifications on.

winkle.

20,446 просмотров • 15 дней назад

Bitcoin just flashed the same signal that started the 2022 collapse 🚨 In both 2021 and 2025, BTC topped right after moving too far above the 200W MA. Then came a brutal rejection. Now Bitcoin is once again sitting at the exact same level where previous bull traps started forming. This chart suggests the next big move may not be up. It may be the final flush before the real bottom is in.
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Bitcoin just flashed the same signal that started the 2022 collapse 🚨 In both 2021 and 2025, BTC topped right after moving too far above the 200W MA. Then came a brutal rejection. Now Bitcoin is once again sitting at the exact same level where previous bull traps started forming. This chart suggests the next big move may not be up. It may be the final flush before the real bottom is in.

Crypto Rover

168,717 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

🚨 THIS IS INSANE This is Bitcoin’s 2021 cycle overlaid on the current $BTC chart. And the overlap is almost PERFECT. Every week, I come back expecting the pattern to finally break. It does NOT. Bitcoin keeps following the same structure: → Same final pump → Same cycle top → Same violent rejection → Same first major correction → Same weak recovery → Same setup before the real capitulation Now look at the numbers. 2021 cycle: → $BTC peaked near $69K → Dropped around 77% → Bottomed near $15.5K → The bear market lasted more than a year Current cycle: → $BTC peaked near $126K → The first major breakdown has already happened → Every recovery is getting weaker → The structure still points toward $40K That is exactly how the previous Bitcoin bear market developed. I’m not saying $BTC must repeat the 2021 cycle tick for tick. But when two cycle structures track this closely for this long, ignoring it becomes dangerous. Most people will turn bullish after every bounce. They did exactly the same thing in 2022. The real bottom only forms when almost everyone has lost hope. What are your thoughts on this? Follow and turn notifications on. I’ll post the warning BEFORE the final capitulation begins.
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🚨 THIS IS INSANE This is Bitcoin’s 2021 cycle overlaid on the current $BTC chart. And the overlap is almost PERFECT. Every week, I come back expecting the pattern to finally break. It does NOT. Bitcoin keeps following the same structure: → Same final pump → Same cycle top → Same violent rejection → Same first major correction → Same weak recovery → Same setup before the real capitulation Now look at the numbers. 2021 cycle: → $BTC peaked near $69K → Dropped around 77% → Bottomed near $15.5K → The bear market lasted more than a year Current cycle: → $BTC peaked near $126K → The first major breakdown has already happened → Every recovery is getting weaker → The structure still points toward $40K That is exactly how the previous Bitcoin bear market developed. I’m not saying $BTC must repeat the 2021 cycle tick for tick. But when two cycle structures track this closely for this long, ignoring it becomes dangerous. Most people will turn bullish after every bounce. They did exactly the same thing in 2022. The real bottom only forms when almost everyone has lost hope. What are your thoughts on this? Follow and turn notifications on. I’ll post the warning BEFORE the final capitulation begins.

Wimar.X

131,308 просмотров • 17 дней назад

🤯 BITCOIN IS PRINTING THE EXACT SAME PATTERN THAT ENDED THE LAST BEAR MARKET. It is called a falling wedge. Price grinds lower into a tightening range. The crowd turns fully bearish. Then it breaks up and runs. This is what happened in 2021 and 2022. The wedge formed. Everyone gave up. Then Bitcoin exploded higher. Now look at 2025 and 2026. The same wedge. The same fear. If history repeats, the breakout comes next.
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🤯 BITCOIN IS PRINTING THE EXACT SAME PATTERN THAT ENDED THE LAST BEAR MARKET. It is called a falling wedge. Price grinds lower into a tightening range. The crowd turns fully bearish. Then it breaks up and runs. This is what happened in 2021 and 2022. The wedge formed. Everyone gave up. Then Bitcoin exploded higher. Now look at 2025 and 2026. The same wedge. The same fear. If history repeats, the breakout comes next.

Mister Crypto

69,227 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

My Bitcoin thesis is simple. The only thing I can currently see making Bitcoin bottom sooner is the passage of the CLARITY Act. If that does not happen, I think Bitcoin is likely to head lower. I already have a Bitcoin long from $58,000, which filled at the exact bottom. I will keep this trade open regardless. Even though I expect Bitcoin to move lower, I do not want to trade around this position completely. I do not want to risk missing the bear market bottom if Bitcoin bottoms earlier than expected, possibly because of the CLARITY Act. If Bitcoin does move lower, I have millions of dollars in orders waiting to be filled. If those orders fill, I will build what will be, by far, the largest Bitcoin long position of my life. I will also keep my current trade open. You can pause the video to see all my exact entries. Everything is fully transparent.
0:16

My Bitcoin thesis is simple. The only thing I can currently see making Bitcoin bottom sooner is the passage of the CLARITY Act. If that does not happen, I think Bitcoin is likely to head lower. I already have a Bitcoin long from $58,000, which filled at the exact bottom. I will keep this trade open regardless. Even though I expect Bitcoin to move lower, I do not want to trade around this position completely. I do not want to risk missing the bear market bottom if Bitcoin bottoms earlier than expected, possibly because of the CLARITY Act. If Bitcoin does move lower, I have millions of dollars in orders waiting to be filled. If those orders fill, I will build what will be, by far, the largest Bitcoin long position of my life. I will also keep my current trade open. You can pause the video to see all my exact entries. Everything is fully transparent.

Crypto Rover

91,511 просмотров • 19 дней назад

We just launched 10% back in bitcoin on the Bitcoin credit card I’m a terrible golfer, but 10% back is WILD I’ve already earned .01 BTC ($1,050) by using the card everywhere Who else is doing this? Looks like I’m taking up a new hobby this summer lol
0:11

We just launched 10% back in bitcoin on the Bitcoin credit card I’m a terrible golfer, but 10% back is WILD I’ve already earned .01 BTC ($1,050) by using the card everywhere Who else is doing this? Looks like I’m taking up a new hobby this summer lol

Jeremy

81,685 просмотров • 1 год назад

Bitcoin survived a 83% drawdown in 2018 and a 78% drawdown in 2022. A similar decline this cycle would put $BTC at around $25,000. As long as Bitcoin stays above $62,000, there’s a decent chance of a relief rally. If that level fails, the next move could be violent.
0:11

Bitcoin survived a 83% drawdown in 2018 and a 78% drawdown in 2022. A similar decline this cycle would put $BTC at around $25,000. As long as Bitcoin stays above $62,000, there’s a decent chance of a relief rally. If that level fails, the next move could be violent.

CryptoReviewing

14,390 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

THE MOST DECEPTIVE PATTERN IN CRYPTO. BITCOIN IS IN IT. Rising wedge. Since February. Every higher high looks like momentum. Every higher low looks like strength. It's neither. It's compression before a breakdown. $84K is the top of the wedge. Rejection zone. Break below $80K: $56K measured target. Everyone sees the uptrend. The wedge sees something else.
0:18

THE MOST DECEPTIVE PATTERN IN CRYPTO. BITCOIN IS IN IT. Rising wedge. Since February. Every higher high looks like momentum. Every higher low looks like strength. It's neither. It's compression before a breakdown. $84K is the top of the wedge. Rejection zone. Break below $80K: $56K measured target. Everyone sees the uptrend. The wedge sees something else.

Merlijn The Trader

58,204 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

🍕 Bitcoin Pizza Day, but make it sats. Bitcoin Pizza Day was never just about pizza. It proved BTC could be used as money. With GoBTC Pay GoMining is on the mission to make every day Bitcoin Pizza day. This weekend, that idea comes with sats. The Bitcoin Pizza Day Raffle is live from May 22 to May 24. 27 winners. 7,200,000 sats up for grabs.
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🍕 Bitcoin Pizza Day, but make it sats. Bitcoin Pizza Day was never just about pizza. It proved BTC could be used as money. With GoBTC Pay GoMining is on the mission to make every day Bitcoin Pizza day. This weekend, that idea comes with sats. The Bitcoin Pizza Day Raffle is live from May 22 to May 24. 27 winners. 7,200,000 sats up for grabs.

GoMining

53,617 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

BITCOIN IS RISING INTO A TRAP. Bearish rising wedge. Three touches. Textbook structure. The more it rises inside the wedge, the harder it breaks. $79K is the last resistance. $68K is the neckline. Break $79K: wedge fails, new highs possible. Lose $68K: $52K measured move activates. Rising wedges don't resolve upward. They just look like they might.
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BITCOIN IS RISING INTO A TRAP. Bearish rising wedge. Three touches. Textbook structure. The more it rises inside the wedge, the harder it breaks. $79K is the last resistance. $68K is the neckline. Break $79K: wedge fails, new highs possible. Lose $68K: $52K measured move activates. Rising wedges don't resolve upward. They just look like they might.

Merlijn The Trader

43,615 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

What happens if Bitcoin goes to $1,000,000 in 8 years and MSTR never issues another senior or preferred share? No new leverage. No new preferred stack. No mNAV expansion. Just Bitcoin going up and the current structure sitting there. At $63.2k BTC: MSTR implied price: ~$95.71 CEBE: ~143,535 sats/share CEBE mNAV: 1.055x At $1,000,000 BTC, with the exact same mNAV: MSTR implied price: ~$2,086 CEBE: ~197,678 sats/share Bitcoin return: 15.8x MSTR return: 21.8x That is ~38% more return than Bitcoin. Why? Because the senior/preferred claim stack is fixed in dollars. As Bitcoin rises, that claim stack collapses in BTC terms: ~310,379 BTC of senior claims today → ~19,616 BTC at $1M Bitcoin The common equity absorbs the difference. This is what you are getting in exchange for paying the STRC dividends. AMPLIFICATION of BITCOIN. This is what the market keeps missing. MSTR does not need the multiple to expand to outperform Bitcoin. It can outperform because fixed-dollar claims get nuked in Bitcoin terms. CEBE is the lens. Bitcoin is the detonator:
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What happens if Bitcoin goes to $1,000,000 in 8 years and MSTR never issues another senior or preferred share? No new leverage. No new preferred stack. No mNAV expansion. Just Bitcoin going up and the current structure sitting there. At $63.2k BTC: MSTR implied price: ~$95.71 CEBE: ~143,535 sats/share CEBE mNAV: 1.055x At $1,000,000 BTC, with the exact same mNAV: MSTR implied price: ~$2,086 CEBE: ~197,678 sats/share Bitcoin return: 15.8x MSTR return: 21.8x That is ~38% more return than Bitcoin. Why? Because the senior/preferred claim stack is fixed in dollars. As Bitcoin rises, that claim stack collapses in BTC terms: ~310,379 BTC of senior claims today → ~19,616 BTC at $1M Bitcoin The common equity absorbs the difference. This is what you are getting in exchange for paying the STRC dividends. AMPLIFICATION of BITCOIN. This is what the market keeps missing. MSTR does not need the multiple to expand to outperform Bitcoin. It can outperform because fixed-dollar claims get nuked in Bitcoin terms. CEBE is the lens. Bitcoin is the detonator:

Adam Livingston

103,761 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

THE MOST DANGEROUS BITCOIN PATTERN JUST COMPLETED PHASE ONE. Bull Trap at $105K: done. Market Maker bearish model: activating. If this plays out: $26K before new ATH. $70K is the last line of defense. Hold it: bearish scenario fails. Lose it: model executes. $26K next stop. Market makers don't warn you. The chart already did.
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THE MOST DANGEROUS BITCOIN PATTERN JUST COMPLETED PHASE ONE. Bull Trap at $105K: done. Market Maker bearish model: activating. If this plays out: $26K before new ATH. $70K is the last line of defense. Hold it: bearish scenario fails. Lose it: model executes. $26K next stop. Market makers don't warn you. The chart already did.

Merlijn The Trader

54,411 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

THIS IS WHAT A BITCOIN BULL TRAP LOOKS LIKE. THREE TIMES. Price squeezes up. Breaks resistance. Feels like recovery. Then dumps harder than before. $71K was the trap. Now at $66K. Reclaim $71K: structure shifts. Stay below: $59K is the next stop. Hope is expensive here.
0:15

THIS IS WHAT A BITCOIN BULL TRAP LOOKS LIKE. THREE TIMES. Price squeezes up. Breaks resistance. Feels like recovery. Then dumps harder than before. $71K was the trap. Now at $66K. Reclaim $71K: structure shifts. Stay below: $59K is the next stop. Hope is expensive here.

Merlijn The Trader

78,414 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

🔥STRATEGY WILL BE THE WORLD'S MOST VALUABLE COMPANY🔥 Strategy bought OVER 56,000 Bitcoin in April. That number is so absurd people are psychologically incapable of processing it. Post-halving miners produce roughly 13,500 BTC per month. Strategy just bought about 4.1x an entire month of new miner supply in one month. Now run the simple monster math: Today: Strategy BTC stack: 818,334 BTC Bitcoin price: $76,196 Bitcoin NAV: $62.35B Assume Strategy keeps buying 56,000 BTC per month for 5 years. That is: ASSUMING STRC GROWTH TOTALLY STOPS (LOL) ~672,000 BTC per year ~3,360,000 BTC over 5 years Their stack goes from: 818,334 BTC to 4,178,334 BTC Now assume Bitcoin compounds at 25% CAGR. Bitcoin goes from: $76,196 to roughly: $232,532 So the Bitcoin NAV becomes: 4,178,334 BTC × $232,532 = roughly $971.5 BILLION Almost $1 TRILLION in Bitcoin NAV. And the funniest part? This model assumes no mNAV expansion. No premium insanity. No additional acceleration. No credit flywheel getting stronger. No market panic as everyone realizes Strategy is vacuuming Bitcoin off the planet like a publicly traded monetary black hole. Just: 56,000 BTC per month. 25% Bitcoin CAGR. 5 years. That’s it. Don't think they can accumulate that much Bitcoin at that low of a CAGR? Think the Bitcoin CAGR has to go higher? Cool. That only helps Strategy buy more Bitcoin. The bear case is basically: “Sure, they are absorbing multiples of new supply, building the largest corporate Bitcoin balance sheet in history, converting fiat capital markets into Bitcoin ownership, and compounding NAV at escape velocity, but have you considered that I am emotionally upset?” MSTR is becoming the most aggressive Bitcoin accumulation machine ever built. The fiat world is still modeling it like a tech stock with a weird treasury policy. GOOD LUCK.
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🔥STRATEGY WILL BE THE WORLD'S MOST VALUABLE COMPANY🔥 Strategy bought OVER 56,000 Bitcoin in April. That number is so absurd people are psychologically incapable of processing it. Post-halving miners produce roughly 13,500 BTC per month. Strategy just bought about 4.1x an entire month of new miner supply in one month. Now run the simple monster math: Today: Strategy BTC stack: 818,334 BTC Bitcoin price: $76,196 Bitcoin NAV: $62.35B Assume Strategy keeps buying 56,000 BTC per month for 5 years. That is: ASSUMING STRC GROWTH TOTALLY STOPS (LOL) ~672,000 BTC per year ~3,360,000 BTC over 5 years Their stack goes from: 818,334 BTC to 4,178,334 BTC Now assume Bitcoin compounds at 25% CAGR. Bitcoin goes from: $76,196 to roughly: $232,532 So the Bitcoin NAV becomes: 4,178,334 BTC × $232,532 = roughly $971.5 BILLION Almost $1 TRILLION in Bitcoin NAV. And the funniest part? This model assumes no mNAV expansion. No premium insanity. No additional acceleration. No credit flywheel getting stronger. No market panic as everyone realizes Strategy is vacuuming Bitcoin off the planet like a publicly traded monetary black hole. Just: 56,000 BTC per month. 25% Bitcoin CAGR. 5 years. That’s it. Don't think they can accumulate that much Bitcoin at that low of a CAGR? Think the Bitcoin CAGR has to go higher? Cool. That only helps Strategy buy more Bitcoin. The bear case is basically: “Sure, they are absorbing multiples of new supply, building the largest corporate Bitcoin balance sheet in history, converting fiat capital markets into Bitcoin ownership, and compounding NAV at escape velocity, but have you considered that I am emotionally upset?” MSTR is becoming the most aggressive Bitcoin accumulation machine ever built. The fiat world is still modeling it like a tech stock with a weird treasury policy. GOOD LUCK.

Adam Livingston

61,563 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

🚨 MICHAEL SAYLOR JUST GAVE HIS BITCOIN PRICE TARGET FOR END OF YEAR: "Our expectation right now is end of the year. It should be about $150,000." Bitcoin is currently trading around $59k That is a +150% move from here by December. Saylor holds over 850K Bitcoin on Strategy's balance sheet. He is not a disinterested observer. But he has also been more right than wrong on Bitcoin price direction for MANY years.
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🚨 MICHAEL SAYLOR JUST GAVE HIS BITCOIN PRICE TARGET FOR END OF YEAR: "Our expectation right now is end of the year. It should be about $150,000." Bitcoin is currently trading around $59k That is a +150% move from here by December. Saylor holds over 850K Bitcoin on Strategy's balance sheet. He is not a disinterested observer. But he has also been more right than wrong on Bitcoin price direction for MANY years.

WOLF Bitcoin

28,976 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

I have perfectly predicted this pump. Now Bitcoin follows a descending channel pattern. $126K → $82K → $58K → $62K → $65K (fakeout). Reminder: I’ve called all the market tops and bottoms for the last 15 years, including the Bitcoin bottom at $16,000 and the top at $126,000. The next call will be even more important. I’ll post it here publicly like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.
0:19

I have perfectly predicted this pump. Now Bitcoin follows a descending channel pattern. $126K → $82K → $58K → $62K → $65K (fakeout). Reminder: I’ve called all the market tops and bottoms for the last 15 years, including the Bitcoin bottom at $16,000 and the top at $126,000. The next call will be even more important. I’ll post it here publicly like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.

Alex Mason 👁△

122,374 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

Bitcoin has done exactly what bulls wanted to see. The falling wedge has broken. Momentum is shifting. Now comes the most important part. Turning previous resistance into support. If that happens, this breakout could be remembered as the start of the next major move higher.
0:12

Bitcoin has done exactly what bulls wanted to see. The falling wedge has broken. Momentum is shifting. Now comes the most important part. Turning previous resistance into support. If that happens, this breakout could be remembered as the start of the next major move higher.

Mister Crypto

19,659 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

Saylor’s Bitcoin Machine Meets the Cash Reality The real story is not that Strategy may sell up to $1.25B of Bitcoin. The bigger story is that it has moved from a simple accumulation narrative into a complex capital markets machine. The old pitch was buy Bitcoin, never sell, increase Bitcoin per share. The new structure has preferred stock, convertible debt, reserves, buybacks, dividend obligations, and now a BTC monetization plan. That shift matters because Bitcoin does not produce cash flow. Preferred dividends and interest expense do. Strategy says it has about $2.55B in USD reserves and roughly $1.76B in annual preferred dividend and interest obligations. That sounds like about 17 months of coverage, but that number is static. It assumes no future dividend increases, no stress, no buybacks, no taxes, no transaction costs, and no deterioration in capital market access. If they keep raising the STRC dividend to defend the price near par, the cash burn rises and the runway gets shorter. The Digital Credit Problem STRC is marketed as digital credit, but economically it behaves like a high yield perpetual preferred stock tied to confidence in a Bitcoin balance sheet. It is not normal debt because there is no traditional maturity. It is not common equity because it sits ahead of common shareholders and carries a large cash distribution expectation. The design is clever but circular. STRC’s dividend can be adjusted to keep the security near $99 to $100. The dividend was raised to 12%, which may support the price, but it also raises cash burn. If STRC trades below par, Strategy may raise the dividend again. If the dividend rises, the reserve coverage shrinks. If cash gets tight, Strategy needs new issuance, reserves, or Bitcoin sales. The compounding issue makes the structure even more fragile. If dividends are paid on time, they do not compound against the company. But if payments are deferred or missed, unpaid dividends can accumulate and compound monthly until paid. That means a liquidity problem does not just sit there. It can grow on itself. Where The Fragility Lives Strategy owns a volatile, non cash flowing asset and has layered cash obligations on top of it. That works when Bitcoin rises, MSTR trades at a premium, and investors are hungry for yield. It gets harder when Bitcoin falls, spreads widen, or investors demand higher returns. Selling Bitcoin now changes the narrative. Bitcoin is no longer just the sacred reserve asset. It is now a liquidity backstop for dividends, reserves, interest, and buybacks. The $1.25B monetization program adds runway, but it also proves the point. Cash promises need cash sources. That creates the feedback loop. If Bitcoin falls, asset coverage weakens. If STRC trades lower, required yields rise. If yields rise, Strategy may need to raise the dividend. If the dividend rises, cash burn accelerates. If issuance slows, reserves get used. If reserves fall, Bitcoin sales become more likely. If those sales look defensive, confidence weakens further. My Take Common shareholders own the upside, but they sit below debt and preferred claims. Preferred holders get high yield, but they rely on Strategy’s ability to maintain reserves, issue securities, monetize Bitcoin, and keep market confidence intact. This is no longer just a Bitcoin bet. It is a Bitcoin liquidity bet, a capital markets access bet, and a confidence bet. Strategy can survive if Bitcoin rises, MSTR keeps a premium, and yield investors keep funding the machine. If two fail at once, the model becomes fragile. The key red flags are STRC below par, dividend hikes that fail to restore the price, reserve coverage under 12 months, unpaid dividends compounding, visible Bitcoin sales, MSTR near or below NAV, and preferred yields widening. The structure can work, but not forever on narrative alone. Eventually, cash obligations meet cash sources. That is where the risk lives.
0:11

Saylor’s Bitcoin Machine Meets the Cash Reality The real story is not that Strategy may sell up to $1.25B of Bitcoin. The bigger story is that it has moved from a simple accumulation narrative into a complex capital markets machine. The old pitch was buy Bitcoin, never sell, increase Bitcoin per share. The new structure has preferred stock, convertible debt, reserves, buybacks, dividend obligations, and now a BTC monetization plan. That shift matters because Bitcoin does not produce cash flow. Preferred dividends and interest expense do. Strategy says it has about $2.55B in USD reserves and roughly $1.76B in annual preferred dividend and interest obligations. That sounds like about 17 months of coverage, but that number is static. It assumes no future dividend increases, no stress, no buybacks, no taxes, no transaction costs, and no deterioration in capital market access. If they keep raising the STRC dividend to defend the price near par, the cash burn rises and the runway gets shorter. The Digital Credit Problem STRC is marketed as digital credit, but economically it behaves like a high yield perpetual preferred stock tied to confidence in a Bitcoin balance sheet. It is not normal debt because there is no traditional maturity. It is not common equity because it sits ahead of common shareholders and carries a large cash distribution expectation. The design is clever but circular. STRC’s dividend can be adjusted to keep the security near $99 to $100. The dividend was raised to 12%, which may support the price, but it also raises cash burn. If STRC trades below par, Strategy may raise the dividend again. If the dividend rises, the reserve coverage shrinks. If cash gets tight, Strategy needs new issuance, reserves, or Bitcoin sales. The compounding issue makes the structure even more fragile. If dividends are paid on time, they do not compound against the company. But if payments are deferred or missed, unpaid dividends can accumulate and compound monthly until paid. That means a liquidity problem does not just sit there. It can grow on itself. Where The Fragility Lives Strategy owns a volatile, non cash flowing asset and has layered cash obligations on top of it. That works when Bitcoin rises, MSTR trades at a premium, and investors are hungry for yield. It gets harder when Bitcoin falls, spreads widen, or investors demand higher returns. Selling Bitcoin now changes the narrative. Bitcoin is no longer just the sacred reserve asset. It is now a liquidity backstop for dividends, reserves, interest, and buybacks. The $1.25B monetization program adds runway, but it also proves the point. Cash promises need cash sources. That creates the feedback loop. If Bitcoin falls, asset coverage weakens. If STRC trades lower, required yields rise. If yields rise, Strategy may need to raise the dividend. If the dividend rises, cash burn accelerates. If issuance slows, reserves get used. If reserves fall, Bitcoin sales become more likely. If those sales look defensive, confidence weakens further. My Take Common shareholders own the upside, but they sit below debt and preferred claims. Preferred holders get high yield, but they rely on Strategy’s ability to maintain reserves, issue securities, monetize Bitcoin, and keep market confidence intact. This is no longer just a Bitcoin bet. It is a Bitcoin liquidity bet, a capital markets access bet, and a confidence bet. Strategy can survive if Bitcoin rises, MSTR keeps a premium, and yield investors keep funding the machine. If two fail at once, the model becomes fragile. The key red flags are STRC below par, dividend hikes that fail to restore the price, reserve coverage under 12 months, unpaid dividends compounding, visible Bitcoin sales, MSTR near or below NAV, and preferred yields widening. The structure can work, but not forever on narrative alone. Eventually, cash obligations meet cash sources. That is where the risk lives.

EndGame Macro

33,374 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

🚨 WARNING: $SPX IS ONE MOVE AWAY FROM A CRASH The S&P 500 has been DUMPING for three consecutive weeks. Most people still think this is just another healthy pullback. They have NO idea what will happen next. Wave 6 has already marked the local top. The final melt-up could be over. But the biggest warning is market concentration. Only five stocks have been carrying the entire index: → Apple → Nvidia → Amazon → Microsoft → Meta Now that weakness is spreading across mega caps, the entire structure is becoming extremely fragile. Meta has already dumped more than 15% in one month. If the remaining leaders follow: → Index concentration breaks → Dip buyers get trapped → Selling pressure accelerates → The correction turns into a major crash When the AI bubble finally bursts, there may be nothing left holding $SPX at these levels. I’ve studied macro for 10 years and called almost every major market top, including the October Bitcoin ATH. Follow and turn notifications on. I’ll post the next major move BEFORE it becomes obvious.
0:19

🚨 WARNING: $SPX IS ONE MOVE AWAY FROM A CRASH The S&P 500 has been DUMPING for three consecutive weeks. Most people still think this is just another healthy pullback. They have NO idea what will happen next. Wave 6 has already marked the local top. The final melt-up could be over. But the biggest warning is market concentration. Only five stocks have been carrying the entire index: → Apple → Nvidia → Amazon → Microsoft → Meta Now that weakness is spreading across mega caps, the entire structure is becoming extremely fragile. Meta has already dumped more than 15% in one month. If the remaining leaders follow: → Index concentration breaks → Dip buyers get trapped → Selling pressure accelerates → The correction turns into a major crash When the AI bubble finally bursts, there may be nothing left holding $SPX at these levels. I’ve studied macro for 10 years and called almost every major market top, including the October Bitcoin ATH. Follow and turn notifications on. I’ll post the next major move BEFORE it becomes obvious.

Wimar.X

186,485 просмотров • 15 дней назад