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I decided to update this video for you by showing the timeframes when Bitcoin pumped in 2023 and when it reached its peak price. Bitcoin is currently behaving in exactly the same way. The pattern is very similar and has repeated itself perfectly so far. If the rest of...

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13,887 görüntüleme • 21 saat önce •via X (Twitter)

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If Bitcoin loses the $78,500 level, the next support is at $76,500. If this pattern repeats, Bitcoin should find support at $76,500 and resume its trend toward the $80k+ level. First part (around January 2023) Strong upside breakout with a gain of +23.32%. This was followed by a correction of about –5.24% into the red TEM zone. The last wick that clearly sat outside or at the edge of the red TEM band appeared after roughly two days. After that the price consolidated inside the TEM bands and continued the uptrend. Final support on the 4H timeframe was found at the Ichimoku Cycle Engine / yellow TEM band. Second part (current chart, August 2026) strong upside breakout with a gain of +23.58%. This was followed by a correction of about –4-5% into the red TEM zone. The last wick that clearly sat outside of the red TEM band appeared after roughly two days. After that the price consolidated inside the TEM bands and continued the uptrend. However, this does not mean the pattern is guaranteed to repeat. bitcoin:native
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If Bitcoin loses the $78,500 level, the next support is at $76,500. If this pattern repeats, Bitcoin should find support at $76,500 and resume its trend toward the $80k+ level. First part (around January 2023) Strong upside breakout with a gain of +23.32%. This was followed by a correction of about –5.24% into the red TEM zone. The last wick that clearly sat outside or at the edge of the red TEM band appeared after roughly two days. After that the price consolidated inside the TEM bands and continued the uptrend. Final support on the 4H timeframe was found at the Ichimoku Cycle Engine / yellow TEM band. Second part (current chart, August 2026) strong upside breakout with a gain of +23.58%. This was followed by a correction of about –4-5% into the red TEM zone. The last wick that clearly sat outside of the red TEM band appeared after roughly two days. After that the price consolidated inside the TEM bands and continued the uptrend. However, this does not mean the pattern is guaranteed to repeat. bitcoin:native

XAPA

28,183 görüntüleme • 1 gün önce

In this video, I’m showing you Bitcoin on the Thermo-Dynamic Engine Model (TEM). You can clearly see that whenever Bitcoin moved into the blue zone on the 1W chart, the bottoming phase began. On the 10D chart, this is even more obvious! Historically, Bitcoin has touched this zone one more time before the bullrun started. At the end of the video, you’ll notice that Bitcoin left the yellow zone only once, during the FTX crash and the COVID pandemic. expecting first a move toward $69,000, followed by a short correction, and then the next leg up toward $82,000. coded by At the Bitcoin Frontier 🦅 bitcoin:native
0:56

In this video, I’m showing you Bitcoin on the Thermo-Dynamic Engine Model (TEM). You can clearly see that whenever Bitcoin moved into the blue zone on the 1W chart, the bottoming phase began. On the 10D chart, this is even more obvious! Historically, Bitcoin has touched this zone one more time before the bullrun started. At the end of the video, you’ll notice that Bitcoin left the yellow zone only once, during the FTX crash and the COVID pandemic. expecting first a move toward $69,000, followed by a short correction, and then the next leg up toward $82,000. coded by At the Bitcoin Frontier 🦅 bitcoin:native

XAPA

84,439 görüntüleme • 8 gün önce

The pattern from my previous thread played out perfectly. I've decided to update it for you. It does not necessarily have to repeat itself, but it is a very interesting perspective. Also check out my pattern from 2019, which also shows 90k+ by October. NFA history doesn't repeat itself but it often rhymes In June 2022, Bitcoin found its first low, only to form almost its final low 147 days later (on the weekly chart). At that time we were still in the Corona pandemic. Bitcoin fell by a maximum of 0.68% within two weeks to reach its "final" bottom. On November 9, 2022, the UTXO age bands cross occurred, a signal that has historically always predicted Bitcoin’s final bottom. After the final bottom we could observe Bitcoin moving sideways to the upside for three weeks, followed by three weeks of sideways movement to the downside. However, the bottom had already been formed. After these three weeks the Bitcoin bull run began! bitcoin:native
1:09

The pattern from my previous thread played out perfectly. I've decided to update it for you. It does not necessarily have to repeat itself, but it is a very interesting perspective. Also check out my pattern from 2019, which also shows 90k+ by October. NFA history doesn't repeat itself but it often rhymes In June 2022, Bitcoin found its first low, only to form almost its final low 147 days later (on the weekly chart). At that time we were still in the Corona pandemic. Bitcoin fell by a maximum of 0.68% within two weeks to reach its "final" bottom. On November 9, 2022, the UTXO age bands cross occurred, a signal that has historically always predicted Bitcoin’s final bottom. After the final bottom we could observe Bitcoin moving sideways to the upside for three weeks, followed by three weeks of sideways movement to the downside. However, the bottom had already been formed. After these three weeks the Bitcoin bull run began! bitcoin:native

XAPA

13,172 görüntüleme • 1 gün önce

Anyone remember 2019, when Bitcoin pumped straight from $3k to $14k? Do you remember how, out of pure nothing, it just decided to start its own rally in 2019? 2018 Bitcoin printed its absolute low. You can see that 112 days after we had turned from red to green in the Bitcoin Journey Map, the absolute cycle bottom had been formed. The real bottom had already formed before the rally. The weekly chart printed a clean bullish crossover, and after that Bitcoin only knew one direction. 2022 was almost the identical setup. Same bullish weekly crossover. Inside those 112 days we actually saw the lowest price of the entire cycle. 2019 was the only exception where the low printed earlier. In 2019 that leg from $3k to $14k took 63 days. That $14k level was roughly 27 percent under the previous cycle top. If this pattern repeats now the same way it did in 2019, we are looking at $90,000 by mid-October. Everything is based on probabilities! bitcoin:native
0:53

Anyone remember 2019, when Bitcoin pumped straight from $3k to $14k? Do you remember how, out of pure nothing, it just decided to start its own rally in 2019? 2018 Bitcoin printed its absolute low. You can see that 112 days after we had turned from red to green in the Bitcoin Journey Map, the absolute cycle bottom had been formed. The real bottom had already formed before the rally. The weekly chart printed a clean bullish crossover, and after that Bitcoin only knew one direction. 2022 was almost the identical setup. Same bullish weekly crossover. Inside those 112 days we actually saw the lowest price of the entire cycle. 2019 was the only exception where the low printed earlier. In 2019 that leg from $3k to $14k took 63 days. That $14k level was roughly 27 percent under the previous cycle top. If this pattern repeats now the same way it did in 2019, we are looking at $90,000 by mid-October. Everything is based on probabilities! bitcoin:native

XAPA

29,274 görüntüleme • 6 gün önce

On September 4, 2023 The first released an article about The First red heifer in 2000 years which seemingly fulfils Bible prophecy and signals 'end of days' being found. The Heifer was born on August 28, 2018 so it’s strange that they released that article last month. MSN and PBS covered the story after their release. It announced the birth on its YouTube channel and claimed the red female calf "brings the promise of reinstating Biblical purity to the world". The video shows the calf with its mother and proclaims: “A perfectly red heifer was born in the land of Israel”. The calf has since undergone “extensive examination by rabbinical experts” who confirmed she is a “viable candidate for the Biblical red heifer”. The prophecy says the cow must be red "without blemish". In both Christianity and Judaism, red heifers feature in tales about the "end of times", I’m asking everyone of the world to unite. It matters more now than ever. Mirror UK report:
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On September 4, 2023 The first released an article about The First red heifer in 2000 years which seemingly fulfils Bible prophecy and signals 'end of days' being found. The Heifer was born on August 28, 2018 so it’s strange that they released that article last month. MSN and PBS covered the story after their release. It announced the birth on its YouTube channel and claimed the red female calf "brings the promise of reinstating Biblical purity to the world". The video shows the calf with its mother and proclaims: “A perfectly red heifer was born in the land of Israel”. The calf has since undergone “extensive examination by rabbinical experts” who confirmed she is a “viable candidate for the Biblical red heifer”. The prophecy says the cow must be red "without blemish". In both Christianity and Judaism, red heifers feature in tales about the "end of times", I’m asking everyone of the world to unite. It matters more now than ever. Mirror UK report:

Dom Lucre | Breaker of Narratives

4,198,429 görüntüleme • 2 yıl önce

🚨 BITCOIN FOLLOWS THIS PATTERN FOR 12 YEARS Everyone says the cycle is dead. But the chart says the opposite. Bitcoin has followed the same timing pattern for more than a DECADE../ Cycle top → 1430 days. Cycle bottom → 1460 days. This happened in 2013. This happened in 2017. This happened in 2021. This happened in 2025. Now Bitcoin is following the same structure one more time. The last major top came almost exactly on schedule, around 1431 days after the previous cycle top. That is not random. That is the cycle repeating. Now the next major low is projected around 1460 days from the last cycle bottom. That means the final dump is not chaos. It is part of the same pattern Bitcoin has followed for years. People will call it panic. People will call it the end. But historically, this is where Bitcoin creates the next bottom. Same timing. Same structure. Same cycle. Final bottom: 2026. Then the next expansion starts. I’ve studied macro for 10 years and I called almost every major market top, including the October BTC ATH. Follow and turn notifications on. I’ll post the warning BEFORE it hits the headlines.
0:41

🚨 BITCOIN FOLLOWS THIS PATTERN FOR 12 YEARS Everyone says the cycle is dead. But the chart says the opposite. Bitcoin has followed the same timing pattern for more than a DECADE../ Cycle top → 1430 days. Cycle bottom → 1460 days. This happened in 2013. This happened in 2017. This happened in 2021. This happened in 2025. Now Bitcoin is following the same structure one more time. The last major top came almost exactly on schedule, around 1431 days after the previous cycle top. That is not random. That is the cycle repeating. Now the next major low is projected around 1460 days from the last cycle bottom. That means the final dump is not chaos. It is part of the same pattern Bitcoin has followed for years. People will call it panic. People will call it the end. But historically, this is where Bitcoin creates the next bottom. Same timing. Same structure. Same cycle. Final bottom: 2026. Then the next expansion starts. I’ve studied macro for 10 years and I called almost every major market top, including the October BTC ATH. Follow and turn notifications on. I’ll post the warning BEFORE it hits the headlines.

Wimar.X

28,699 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

Almost all of Bitcoin's upside happens in about 10 days a year "Bitcoin stuck in the purgatory of $60,000 to $65,000 seemingly forever, leading many to wonder where is that beautiful volatility that Bitcoin is so famous for" "But I'd remind you, in the history of Bitcoin, if you look back, almost all of the price action to the upside comes in roughly 10 days of the year. Bitcoin spends most of its time floating down or floating sideways, boring. But man, when it catches a bid, it catches a bid hard" "What it's doing right now is classic summer doldrums, bear market downside apathy, all of that. But the fact that price hasn't moved does not mean that it never will"
0:41

Almost all of Bitcoin's upside happens in about 10 days a year "Bitcoin stuck in the purgatory of $60,000 to $65,000 seemingly forever, leading many to wonder where is that beautiful volatility that Bitcoin is so famous for" "But I'd remind you, in the history of Bitcoin, if you look back, almost all of the price action to the upside comes in roughly 10 days of the year. Bitcoin spends most of its time floating down or floating sideways, boring. But man, when it catches a bid, it catches a bid hard" "What it's doing right now is classic summer doldrums, bear market downside apathy, all of that. But the fact that price hasn't moved does not mean that it never will"

The Wolf Of All Streets

35,631 görüntüleme • 14 gün önce

In 2019 the orange line first death-crossed the red line. That marked the cycle bottom forming for Bitcoin, and that was the exact point where the 42 day count started. 42 days later the orange line death-crossed the blue line. This confirmed the bottom and triggered the final switch from bear to bull. Now in 2026 we are seeing a very strong similarity to that same pattern. The orange line has already crossed the red line, the 42 days are counting again, and the orange blue cross is next. bitcoin:native
0:30

In 2019 the orange line first death-crossed the red line. That marked the cycle bottom forming for Bitcoin, and that was the exact point where the 42 day count started. 42 days later the orange line death-crossed the blue line. This confirmed the bottom and triggered the final switch from bear to bull. Now in 2026 we are seeing a very strong similarity to that same pattern. The orange line has already crossed the red line, the 42 days are counting again, and the orange blue cross is next. bitcoin:native

XAPA

25,503 görüntüleme • 12 gün önce

Sir Ronald Aylmer Fisher Transformation Index When the Fisher Line on a weekly chart spikes upward after the orange bar has flipped negative, it has historically marked a safe long entry and the end of the bear market. I’ll show you a very similar pattern, because it closely resembles 2022. It does not necessarily have to repeat itself, but it is a very interesting perspective. To understand this indicator clearly, make sure to check the thread from the coder, please give him a follow, he deserves it. At the Bitcoin Frontier 🦅
0:29

Sir Ronald Aylmer Fisher Transformation Index When the Fisher Line on a weekly chart spikes upward after the orange bar has flipped negative, it has historically marked a safe long entry and the end of the bear market. I’ll show you a very similar pattern, because it closely resembles 2022. It does not necessarily have to repeat itself, but it is a very interesting perspective. To understand this indicator clearly, make sure to check the thread from the coder, please give him a follow, he deserves it. At the Bitcoin Frontier 🦅

XAPA

20,598 görüntüleme • 1 gün önce

THE MOST DANGEROUS BITCOIN CHART I'VE SEEN THIS CYCLE. Bitcoin has spent the last 8 years trading inside the same expanding channel. Every bull market ended after price reached the upper resistance. Every bear market ended with a full capitulation back to the lower trendline. We're now accelerating toward that same resistance for the third cycle in a row. Every previous touch of this resistance was followed by a brutal capitulation. This time may not be different.
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THE MOST DANGEROUS BITCOIN CHART I'VE SEEN THIS CYCLE. Bitcoin has spent the last 8 years trading inside the same expanding channel. Every bull market ended after price reached the upper resistance. Every bear market ended with a full capitulation back to the lower trendline. We're now accelerating toward that same resistance for the third cycle in a row. Every previous touch of this resistance was followed by a brutal capitulation. This time may not be different.

Crypto Rover

164,371 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

Be careful and always watch the price when you fill up in America This 7-Eleven gas station pump is not pumping gas but if you look at the price, it keeps going up. The nozzle is out of the car, very clearly not pumping gas, but the price keeps increasing…. We are seeing this more and more at so many gas stations in America When this happens you need to report it to the county Weights and Measures office which is part of the Department of Agriculture and they will investigate it
1:11

Be careful and always watch the price when you fill up in America This 7-Eleven gas station pump is not pumping gas but if you look at the price, it keeps going up. The nozzle is out of the car, very clearly not pumping gas, but the price keeps increasing…. We are seeing this more and more at so many gas stations in America When this happens you need to report it to the county Weights and Measures office which is part of the Department of Agriculture and they will investigate it

Wall Street Apes

135,923 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

Bitcoin is back on the one line that has caught every cycle bottom. The power law support band. Four touches in twelve years, four bottoms. → 2015 → bottom → 2019 → bottom → 2022 → bottom Price is sitting right on it again. Fair value on this model is $168,000. Price is a fraction of that. It can still wick lower, the line is a zone not a laser. But nobody feels good buying here, and that has always been the point.
0:26

Bitcoin is back on the one line that has caught every cycle bottom. The power law support band. Four touches in twelve years, four bottoms. → 2015 → bottom → 2019 → bottom → 2022 → bottom Price is sitting right on it again. Fair value on this model is $168,000. Price is a fraction of that. It can still wick lower, the line is a zone not a laser. But nobody feels good buying here, and that has always been the point.

Mister Crypto

15,179 görüntüleme • 27 gün önce

"I'm scared... come take me!" 6-year-old Hind was killed by Israeli soldiers feeling cold, hungry, and terrified. Today, the Red Crescent announced that it found the burnt remains of the dead bodies of Hind and two paramedics, who went to help her, after 12 days of appeals. This was the last call between Hind and the Red Crescent.
0:30

"I'm scared... come take me!" 6-year-old Hind was killed by Israeli soldiers feeling cold, hungry, and terrified. Today, the Red Crescent announced that it found the burnt remains of the dead bodies of Hind and two paramedics, who went to help her, after 12 days of appeals. This was the last call between Hind and the Red Crescent.

Quds News Network

331,140 görüntüleme • 2 yıl önce

🚨ETHEREUM IS ABOUT TO BREAK THE CYCLE Look at every major Ethereum phase: downtrend -> compression -> breakout -> expansion This structure repeats every cycle In 2017 we saw the breakout that led into a full parabolic move In 2020 the exact same structure printed again, followed by a massive expansion Now look at 2026 We’ve just printed a fake breakdown, followed by a reclaim, and price is starting to form a higher low Exactly the kind of sequence that kicked off previous rallies Right now sentiment says ETH is weak, but the structure is telling a completely different story If this continues to play out the same way, the next phase will turn into a vertical expansion I've been watching the markets for 10+ years Turn on notifs and subscribe – I'll keep you updated
0:45

🚨ETHEREUM IS ABOUT TO BREAK THE CYCLE Look at every major Ethereum phase: downtrend -> compression -> breakout -> expansion This structure repeats every cycle In 2017 we saw the breakout that led into a full parabolic move In 2020 the exact same structure printed again, followed by a massive expansion Now look at 2026 We’ve just printed a fake breakdown, followed by a reclaim, and price is starting to form a higher low Exactly the kind of sequence that kicked off previous rallies Right now sentiment says ETH is weak, but the structure is telling a completely different story If this continues to play out the same way, the next phase will turn into a vertical expansion I've been watching the markets for 10+ years Turn on notifs and subscribe – I'll keep you updated

BLADE

17,848 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

The “Abu Shabab” militia has just published a video in which they claim that one of the Qassam fighters, who was part of a group tasked with attacking them, was captured east of Rafah. What caught my attention in this video is important: the clothes the person is wearing looked very familiar to me. After going back and checking, it became clear that he is the same person who appeared in photos, with the same stains on the clothing, that were published by the Israeli army, claiming he was one of the fighters they arrested while escaping through a tunnel in the Jneina neighborhood in Rafah. This means one of the two narratives is false… or both: either the Israeli narrative, or the narrative of the Abu Shabab militia. This further documents and confirms the military cooperation between the two sides. For this reason I have always doubted the Israeli narrative regarding the besieged fighters in Rafah. Some of it is true, some of it is fabricated, and its goals will become clear with time. - Palestinian journalist: Tamer | تامر
1:00

The “Abu Shabab” militia has just published a video in which they claim that one of the Qassam fighters, who was part of a group tasked with attacking them, was captured east of Rafah. What caught my attention in this video is important: the clothes the person is wearing looked very familiar to me. After going back and checking, it became clear that he is the same person who appeared in photos, with the same stains on the clothing, that were published by the Israeli army, claiming he was one of the fighters they arrested while escaping through a tunnel in the Jneina neighborhood in Rafah. This means one of the two narratives is false… or both: either the Israeli narrative, or the narrative of the Abu Shabab militia. This further documents and confirms the military cooperation between the two sides. For this reason I have always doubted the Israeli narrative regarding the besieged fighters in Rafah. Some of it is true, some of it is fabricated, and its goals will become clear with time. - Palestinian journalist: Tamer | تامر

Warfare Analysis

28,830 görüntüleme • 9 ay önce

🚨 ETHEREUM IS BACK AT ITS LEGENDARY REGRESSION BAND. This band has marked the major accumulation zones for years. 2016. 2019. 2020. Each touch was a gift in hindsight. Now price is pressing into it again after a hard drop. This is not a promise of the exact bottom. It is the zone where the risk reward flips in your favor.
0:31

🚨 ETHEREUM IS BACK AT ITS LEGENDARY REGRESSION BAND. This band has marked the major accumulation zones for years. 2016. 2019. 2020. Each touch was a gift in hindsight. Now price is pressing into it again after a hard drop. This is not a promise of the exact bottom. It is the zone where the risk reward flips in your favor.

Crypto Rover

94,542 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

President Trump says that the Russiagate conspiracy hoax “continues onward” and that it has “continued from the beginning.” You know what that means? NO STATUTE OF LIMITATIONS. DJT: “They hurt a lot of people and it was all a hoax, and now they have it in black & white… I think they should pay a price. By the way, it’s a very big price. It could be the biggest scandal in the history of our country, but it continues onward and that continues onward. You know, that scandal has continued from the beginning…” The funny part is that the legacy media is claiming that all the evidence coming out is “manufactured” by Russia, which is hilarious, but they are also just furthering the conspiracy every day 😂 These people are so screwed. Amazing.
3:08

President Trump says that the Russiagate conspiracy hoax “continues onward” and that it has “continued from the beginning.” You know what that means? NO STATUTE OF LIMITATIONS. DJT: “They hurt a lot of people and it was all a hoax, and now they have it in black & white… I think they should pay a price. By the way, it’s a very big price. It could be the biggest scandal in the history of our country, but it continues onward and that continues onward. You know, that scandal has continued from the beginning…” The funny part is that the legacy media is claiming that all the evidence coming out is “manufactured” by Russia, which is hilarious, but they are also just furthering the conspiracy every day 😂 These people are so screwed. Amazing.

TheStormHasArrived

56,685 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

I PREDICTED SOMETHING WOULD HAPPEN TO CHARLIE 2 MONTHS AGO. Many of us saw the writing on the wall and as all of this has been coming out… And This is EXACTLY why many of us are so loud about it now and trying to figure this out… But, with everything that’s happened, it made me go back and watch the live stream I did covering the debate that Charlie hosted at TPUSA with Dave Smith & Josh Hammer…. This is what I said in the first 5 mins of the stream. The rest is available and you can watch it as it is VERY interesting given everything that has happened. Pay close attention to demeanor, mannerisms of a certain individual, the “curiosity” that was so present and the overall message that was put on the main stage at that event… What was said on that stage was VERY dangerous. When you study and understand the past, it gives you the ability to understand the present much better than most and sometimes… it also gives you the ability to predict the future. But the truth is no one really knows what happened and at the end of the day… I’m just a conspiracy theorist.
3:57

I PREDICTED SOMETHING WOULD HAPPEN TO CHARLIE 2 MONTHS AGO. Many of us saw the writing on the wall and as all of this has been coming out… And This is EXACTLY why many of us are so loud about it now and trying to figure this out… But, with everything that’s happened, it made me go back and watch the live stream I did covering the debate that Charlie hosted at TPUSA with Dave Smith & Josh Hammer…. This is what I said in the first 5 mins of the stream. The rest is available and you can watch it as it is VERY interesting given everything that has happened. Pay close attention to demeanor, mannerisms of a certain individual, the “curiosity” that was so present and the overall message that was put on the main stage at that event… What was said on that stage was VERY dangerous. When you study and understand the past, it gives you the ability to understand the present much better than most and sometimes… it also gives you the ability to predict the future. But the truth is no one really knows what happened and at the end of the day… I’m just a conspiracy theorist.

Ian

67,537 görüntüleme • 10 ay önce

Making Sense Of Strategy What is happening with $MSTR? If you’ve been following me on X for any meaningful length of time, you will know that I have been attempting to calibrate people’s expectations of the stock's performance for the best part of 2025. Here I have synthesised all of my thoughts and distilled them into a single video. If you prefer YouTube, you can watch it here: If you prefer written format, continue reading. The first thing we need to understand is what Strategy is and why people invest in it. Strategy At the highest level, Strategy is leveraged Bitcoin. That’s it. Strategy leverages debt to acquire more Bitcoin. Therefore, the main reason you invest in Strategy is because you want to outperform Bitcoin. The only thing better than Bitcoin is more Bitcoin. The second thing we need to understand is mNAV. mNAV Generally speaking for a pure-play Bitcoin Treasury Company like Strategy, mNAV is a reflection of the market's expectation of future Bitcoin Yield. Bitcoin Yield comes with diminishing returns because each additional Bitcoin purchase contributes less to Bitcoin Per Share. Thus, the larger your Bitcoin stack, the harder it becomes to generate Bitcoin Yield and by extension the harder it becomes to outperform Bitcoin. This is why on a Bitcoin Standard, over a long enough time horizon, mNAV trends towards 1 since the maximum amount of Bitcoin you can own is 21M. With all this in mind, why is Strategy trading where it is and why is it trading at such a low mNAV? There are a few reasons. 1. Strategy Is A Different Company In 2025 Firstly, Strategy is a totally different company in 2025 to the one it was in 2020. For context, believe it or not, the company only introduced Bitcoin Yield and Bitcoin Per Share in the July 2024 Q2 Earnings Call and so it was only after that that they began optimising for those metrics. In my view, that is also when Michael Saylor truly started to understand the opportunity that was in front of him, which is why in October 2024 we saw Strategy announce the 21/21 plan which became the catalyst for the parabolic run we saw in November 2024 where $MSTR went on to briefly hit an all-time-high of around $550. Since people are comparing $MSTR this cycle to the $MSTR of last cycle when it briefly traded at an mNAV of over 8x, it is distorting their expectations. Again, Strategy is a totally different company today with a totally different set of dynamics. 2. New Industry Secondly, we need to recognise that the Bitcoin Treasury Company industry is entirely new which means that the market has been forced to learn and adapt in real-time. With Strategy being the first and by far the largest Bitcoin Treasury Company, it has gained a disproportionate amount of attention and as a result it has attracted a disproportionate amount of speculative capital along the way while everyone has been trying to figure out how to value it. Consequently, in my view, the move we saw in November 2024 was an over-correction to the upside — which by the way coincided with Bitcoin’s parabolic run following Donald Trump’s election win — and what we’re now seeing is an over-correction to the downside. 3. Bitcoin Yield Thirdly, as I mentioned at the beginning, Bitcoin Treasury Companies are currently valued based on how much Bitcoin Yield they are expected to generate in the future. At the time of recording, Strategy currently holds precisely 637,460 Bitcoin — that’s over 3% of the total Bitcoin supply — which means that it is much, much harder to generate meaningful Bitcoin Yield, which again is why we’re seeing the mNAV compress. However, there is a caveat here. There is another metric that Strategy have introduced which is Bitcoin $ Gain. Bitcoin $ Gain is defined as the $ value of newly acquired Bitcoin within any period. Strategy — and I don’t blame them — have been attempting to encourage the market to interpret Bitcoin $ Gain as “earnings” and to value the company based on how much earnings it is expected to generate in the future. For full disclosure, I personally dislike Bitcoin $ Gain as a valuation metric. I think framing it as “earnings” is misleading and disingenuous. I understand why it has been introduced because it speaks the language of Wall Street. However, traditional earnings are final. Bitcoin $ Gain is not because it is forever subject to the price of Bitcoin. Therefore, for Bitcoin $ Gain to be embraced by Wall Street, the market must collectively agree that Bitcoin is going up forever. I remain very sceptical of that happening — especially in the short-to-medium term. However, I am also not attached to my beliefs and so if Wall Street does decide to embrace Bitcoin $ Gain as its primary valuation metric, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 5-10x. If not, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 1-2x. If you’re not content with the latter being the worst case scenario, then the stock probably isn’t for you. 4. Preferred Products Fourthly, the Strategy thesis right now revolves entirely around the success of its preferred products. Remember, Michael Saylor wants Strategy to become the Amazon of the fixed income market. Thus, we’re not talking about a small innovation here — we are talking about completely transforming global finance. This means that the process of generating awareness and educating the market that will ultimately drive demand for these products is going to take years — not months — which is why you need to have a long time-horizon. Presently, the market is completely discounting the success of Strategy’s preferred products. What it’s not factoring in however is that the capital markets are desperate for yield right now. Thus, when — not if — but when, they eventually wake up to Bitcoin, how do you think they’re going to get that yield? Who is going to be the entity that is offering Bitcoin-backed credit instruments at scale? The answer is obviously Strategy, but again, this is a 5-to-10 year and beyond story. So with all that said, if you’re reading this right now, what should you do? Valuing Strategy There are 3 steps you need to take: 1. Firstly, you need to define your time horizon. In other words, how long do you intend on holding the stock for? 2. Secondly, you need to estimate either — depending on your preferred metric — how much Bitcoin Yield or how much Bitcoin $ Gain you expect Strategy to generate during that period and then calculate how much you expect $MSTR to outperform Bitcoin based on those values. 3. Thirdly, ask yourself whether you’d be satisfied with the level of outperformance you have calculated? In other words, is the trade-off worth it? Or would you be better off investing in either spot Bitcoin, an alternative Bitcoin Treasury Company or a Bitcoin ETF. If you’re satisfied with the level of outperformance that you’ve calculated, then $MSTR it probably a good choice of investment for you. If you're not satisfied, then $MSTR is probably a bad choice of investment for you. I personally believe that $MSTR will outperform Bitcoin by a minimum factor of 1-2x over the next 5/10 years and potentially much more if Bitcoin $ Gain becomes the primary metric by which it is valued, but again, I remain sceptical of that happening. Regardless, the best is yet to come.
11:54

Making Sense Of Strategy What is happening with $MSTR? If you’ve been following me on X for any meaningful length of time, you will know that I have been attempting to calibrate people’s expectations of the stock's performance for the best part of 2025. Here I have synthesised all of my thoughts and distilled them into a single video. If you prefer YouTube, you can watch it here: If you prefer written format, continue reading. The first thing we need to understand is what Strategy is and why people invest in it. Strategy At the highest level, Strategy is leveraged Bitcoin. That’s it. Strategy leverages debt to acquire more Bitcoin. Therefore, the main reason you invest in Strategy is because you want to outperform Bitcoin. The only thing better than Bitcoin is more Bitcoin. The second thing we need to understand is mNAV. mNAV Generally speaking for a pure-play Bitcoin Treasury Company like Strategy, mNAV is a reflection of the market's expectation of future Bitcoin Yield. Bitcoin Yield comes with diminishing returns because each additional Bitcoin purchase contributes less to Bitcoin Per Share. Thus, the larger your Bitcoin stack, the harder it becomes to generate Bitcoin Yield and by extension the harder it becomes to outperform Bitcoin. This is why on a Bitcoin Standard, over a long enough time horizon, mNAV trends towards 1 since the maximum amount of Bitcoin you can own is 21M. With all this in mind, why is Strategy trading where it is and why is it trading at such a low mNAV? There are a few reasons. 1. Strategy Is A Different Company In 2025 Firstly, Strategy is a totally different company in 2025 to the one it was in 2020. For context, believe it or not, the company only introduced Bitcoin Yield and Bitcoin Per Share in the July 2024 Q2 Earnings Call and so it was only after that that they began optimising for those metrics. In my view, that is also when Michael Saylor truly started to understand the opportunity that was in front of him, which is why in October 2024 we saw Strategy announce the 21/21 plan which became the catalyst for the parabolic run we saw in November 2024 where $MSTR went on to briefly hit an all-time-high of around $550. Since people are comparing $MSTR this cycle to the $MSTR of last cycle when it briefly traded at an mNAV of over 8x, it is distorting their expectations. Again, Strategy is a totally different company today with a totally different set of dynamics. 2. New Industry Secondly, we need to recognise that the Bitcoin Treasury Company industry is entirely new which means that the market has been forced to learn and adapt in real-time. With Strategy being the first and by far the largest Bitcoin Treasury Company, it has gained a disproportionate amount of attention and as a result it has attracted a disproportionate amount of speculative capital along the way while everyone has been trying to figure out how to value it. Consequently, in my view, the move we saw in November 2024 was an over-correction to the upside — which by the way coincided with Bitcoin’s parabolic run following Donald Trump’s election win — and what we’re now seeing is an over-correction to the downside. 3. Bitcoin Yield Thirdly, as I mentioned at the beginning, Bitcoin Treasury Companies are currently valued based on how much Bitcoin Yield they are expected to generate in the future. At the time of recording, Strategy currently holds precisely 637,460 Bitcoin — that’s over 3% of the total Bitcoin supply — which means that it is much, much harder to generate meaningful Bitcoin Yield, which again is why we’re seeing the mNAV compress. However, there is a caveat here. There is another metric that Strategy have introduced which is Bitcoin $ Gain. Bitcoin $ Gain is defined as the $ value of newly acquired Bitcoin within any period. Strategy — and I don’t blame them — have been attempting to encourage the market to interpret Bitcoin $ Gain as “earnings” and to value the company based on how much earnings it is expected to generate in the future. For full disclosure, I personally dislike Bitcoin $ Gain as a valuation metric. I think framing it as “earnings” is misleading and disingenuous. I understand why it has been introduced because it speaks the language of Wall Street. However, traditional earnings are final. Bitcoin $ Gain is not because it is forever subject to the price of Bitcoin. Therefore, for Bitcoin $ Gain to be embraced by Wall Street, the market must collectively agree that Bitcoin is going up forever. I remain very sceptical of that happening — especially in the short-to-medium term. However, I am also not attached to my beliefs and so if Wall Street does decide to embrace Bitcoin $ Gain as its primary valuation metric, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 5-10x. If not, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 1-2x. If you’re not content with the latter being the worst case scenario, then the stock probably isn’t for you. 4. Preferred Products Fourthly, the Strategy thesis right now revolves entirely around the success of its preferred products. Remember, Michael Saylor wants Strategy to become the Amazon of the fixed income market. Thus, we’re not talking about a small innovation here — we are talking about completely transforming global finance. This means that the process of generating awareness and educating the market that will ultimately drive demand for these products is going to take years — not months — which is why you need to have a long time-horizon. Presently, the market is completely discounting the success of Strategy’s preferred products. What it’s not factoring in however is that the capital markets are desperate for yield right now. Thus, when — not if — but when, they eventually wake up to Bitcoin, how do you think they’re going to get that yield? Who is going to be the entity that is offering Bitcoin-backed credit instruments at scale? The answer is obviously Strategy, but again, this is a 5-to-10 year and beyond story. So with all that said, if you’re reading this right now, what should you do? Valuing Strategy There are 3 steps you need to take: 1. Firstly, you need to define your time horizon. In other words, how long do you intend on holding the stock for? 2. Secondly, you need to estimate either — depending on your preferred metric — how much Bitcoin Yield or how much Bitcoin $ Gain you expect Strategy to generate during that period and then calculate how much you expect $MSTR to outperform Bitcoin based on those values. 3. Thirdly, ask yourself whether you’d be satisfied with the level of outperformance you have calculated? In other words, is the trade-off worth it? Or would you be better off investing in either spot Bitcoin, an alternative Bitcoin Treasury Company or a Bitcoin ETF. If you’re satisfied with the level of outperformance that you’ve calculated, then $MSTR it probably a good choice of investment for you. If you're not satisfied, then $MSTR is probably a bad choice of investment for you. I personally believe that $MSTR will outperform Bitcoin by a minimum factor of 1-2x over the next 5/10 years and potentially much more if Bitcoin $ Gain becomes the primary metric by which it is valued, but again, I remain sceptical of that happening. Regardless, the best is yet to come.

Chris Millas

36,835 görüntüleme • 11 ay önce

🚨WAR ON IRAN: Iran’s strategy is to take the war into the GAS STATIONS of the US🇺🇸 and Europe🇪🇺 ‘Iran possibly finds itself at a disadvantage from a military point of view. The only way that it can pressure the US is by expanding the price of war, or the cost of war, and by attacking people who are nearer to them… That was a way of increasing the price of war on the US, but also on everyone. What we see is Iran targeting the energy infrastructure in the region. Again, that is targeted to raise the price of oil. Take the battle into the gas stations in the US. We’ve seen this also with gas prices, which are also going to affect people in Europe. They’re thinking maybe that is going to make people in Europe pressure or campaign for a diplomatic resolution of the war. The strange thing is that the Iranians come out and say we do not want a diplomatic resolution. But again that’s part of the bravado that we see after the decapitation of Khamenei.’ -Mohammed Baharoon, Director General of the Dubai Public Policy Research Center, on the latest episode of Going Underground Watch the full interview in the quoted post, or watch it on Rumble, link below in the replies👇 b'huth بحوث
2:03

🚨WAR ON IRAN: Iran’s strategy is to take the war into the GAS STATIONS of the US🇺🇸 and Europe🇪🇺 ‘Iran possibly finds itself at a disadvantage from a military point of view. The only way that it can pressure the US is by expanding the price of war, or the cost of war, and by attacking people who are nearer to them… That was a way of increasing the price of war on the US, but also on everyone. What we see is Iran targeting the energy infrastructure in the region. Again, that is targeted to raise the price of oil. Take the battle into the gas stations in the US. We’ve seen this also with gas prices, which are also going to affect people in Europe. They’re thinking maybe that is going to make people in Europe pressure or campaign for a diplomatic resolution of the war. The strange thing is that the Iranians come out and say we do not want a diplomatic resolution. But again that’s part of the bravado that we see after the decapitation of Khamenei.’ -Mohammed Baharoon, Director General of the Dubai Public Policy Research Center, on the latest episode of Going Underground Watch the full interview in the quoted post, or watch it on Rumble, link below in the replies👇 b'huth بحوث

Going Underground

34,802 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce