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“I read this book The Engines That Move Markets a while back and figured out that when technology changes , it’s easy to know who are the losers and difficult to know who are the winners. A few years ago I realised that IT stocks will be the big...

35,955 views • 26 days ago •via X (Twitter)

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Elon Musk was asked how fast AI is moving. His answer wasn’t about the technology. It was about the one man who got it all right and was still too conservative. Musk: “I have to give credit to Ray Kurzweil in being actually remarkably accurate in his predictions. If anything, I think he was perhaps a bit conservative in his predictions.” Kurzweil spent 30 years making forecasts that made serious people uncomfortable. He predicted timelines that sounded impossible. He was mocked for it. He was right about nearly all of them. And Musk just called him conservative. Musk: “The dedicated AI compute appears to be growing by a factor of 10 every six months.” 10x every six months. Musk: “Almost a 100x improvement per year, at least for the next few years.” Moore’s Law was a 2x improvement every two years. That single curve drove every technological shift of the last 50 years. The internet. Smartphones. Cloud computing. All of it rode a 2x curve. AI is on a 100x curve. And the current infrastructure isn’t running beside the new one. It’s becoming it. Musk: “Probably a lot of the data centers, maybe most of the data centers that currently do conventional compute, will transition to AI compute.” Everything that runs the world you know is being rewired for the world that comes next. Human beings process the future in straight lines. We take the speed of the last decade and project it forward. Exponential growth doesn’t work that way. It’s invisible until it’s everywhere. The most aggressive forecaster in the history of technology was too conservative. That’s not about Kurzweil being wrong about the direction. That’s about the human brain being wrong about the speed. The limit was never the technology. It was the organ we use to comprehend it. And that organ hasn’t been upgraded in 200,000 years.

Dustin

213,985 views • 2 months ago

There are so many detractors when it comes to Syria, so quick to write off exactly what it is that Syrians accomplished by bringing down their dictator at a time when most of the world had written them off. Syrians know that this “next phase” will be messy and ugly and quite possibly violent. No one who I have spoken to thinks that this next phase is going to be easy, nor that the core cries that launched the revolution back in 2011, those calls for freedom and democracy, are guaranteed. But do not dismiss what Syrians have learned over the last 13 years and more. And do not dismiss what Syrians have lost to get to this point. I remember as far back as I think it was 2012 or 2013, when we first saw HTS’s predecessor and other more conservative/Islamist groups emerging hearing Syrians say “we know that we will probably need a revolution after the revolution”. A lot has changed since then. HTS itself has morphed and changed. Or at least it appears to have. And yes it could just be lip service, but if Syrians are willing to give this process and HTS a chance to do what it claims it’s going to do – who is anyone to take that agency away from them? There are plans for the day after – plans that have been worked on for the last years and years, that need to be modified since no one thought Assad would disappear just like that. But Syrians inside and outside of the country who still held hope that the day would come did not stop working towards it, towards the Syria they want to live in. And they will keep fighting for that.

Arwa Damon

52,401 views • 1 year ago