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i reverse-engineered the gabagool bot with Claude gabagool is the most famous Polymarket bot ever made it doesn't predict if BTC goes up or down it buys BOTH sides when each gets temporarily cheap → YES at $0.48 → NO at $0.45 → pair cost: $0.93 → one side...

23,626 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten •via X (Twitter)

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a MIT quant told me Polymarket 5-minute BTC markets are mathematically broken we were at a bar in cambridge. he was finishing his PhD on market microstructure. third beer in he started drawing on a napkin. "Polymarket runs BTC Up or Down every 5 minutes. 288 markets per day. everyone trades direction. that's the wrong game" "when UP is at 20c and DOWN is at 85c that's $1.05 combined. overpaid. minutes later UP flips to 82c and DOWN drops to 18c. the gap reversed. you buy the cheap side. never predict direction. just capture the mispricing" i asked how he discovered this. "i studied 28,000 of these markets for my dissertation. the crowd injects emotion every 5 minutes. that creates a spread you can harvest mechanically" then i went home that night. opened Claude Opus 4.7. "build a 5-minute BTC spread capture engine for Polymarket. buy the cheap side of UP/DOWN when pair cost drops below 99c. never predict direction" 2,900 stars. 36GB. every trade on Polymarket and Kalshi. Opus built it overnight. NEURAL FLUX. 24 bayesian nodes. scanning every 2ms. the strategy is real. this account runs it live. 28,620 predictions. every trade on-chain: whale alert feed tracks who's moving: > yes 0x47ac...d5e3 BTC+103K 30m $97. > yes smart_money BTC+98K 5m $870. > yes darkpool_7 BTC+102K 15m $97. > no 0xd8dA...6045 BTC+97.5K 5m $1,014. > yes copy_bot BTC+100K 15m $1,014. > no 0xBE0e...48CD BTC+101K 5m $688. edge scanner: 4 live edges. BTC+100K 5m +7.7c. BTC+99.5K 5m +7.2c. BTC<99K 5m +4.2c. BTC+101K 5m +6.8c. $534K volume. 79% win rate. sharpe 3.64. drawdown -1.2%. +$11,681 from $1,200 seed. i copied the setup here: texted him after week one with a screenshot. "you deployed this live?" Claude deployed it. i typed what you drew on the napkin. long pause. "my thesis advisor would lose his mind if he saw this" probably. but the spread doesn't care who captures it.

Hanako

53,628 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

One Python bot made $316K by finding the same loophole thousands of times. Broken prices appear every few seconds. This bot catches them before anyone else. I found distinct-baguette buried in a leaderboard. Another crypto bot grinding 15-minute windows. Almost closed the tab. Then I saw the win rate. 71%. That is low for a profitable bot. Way too low. Something was off. → Account: Turns out I was looking at it wrong. This bot does not predict anything. Does not care if BTC goes up or down. Does not read charts. Does not time entries. It just watches one thing: prices that do not add up. Sounds weird until you see the trick. Polymarket 15-minute windows have two sides. YES and NO. One of them always pays $1. So YES + NO should always equal $1. That is just math. But when markets move fast, prices slip. YES at 48 cents. NO at 49 cents. Total: 97 cents. The bot sees this. Buys both sides. Waits. Market closes. One side pays $1. He spent 97 cents. Keeps the 3 cent difference. Does not matter who wins. The script checks Polymarket every few seconds. BTC. SOL. XRP. Anything with volume. The moment prices slip under 99 cents combined, it fires. Three cents per trade. Repeat it tens of thousands of times. That is how you get to $316K. The 71% win rate finally made sense. He is not trying to pick winners. He is locking profit before the bet even resolves. Some trades the spread was not wide enough. Does not matter. The edge is in the volume. Everyone else bets on outcomes. This bot bets on broken math.

Blaze

337,995 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten

I asked Claude Fable 5 (Extra High) to build an arb bot for Polymarket. One rule: trade only when YES + NO in 2 hours it almost doubled it (+$96.31) > in 5 hours it showed +$579 PnL > current balance: +$3,799.73 Cost: 10M tokens. Here's how it works and why: Every BTC Up/Down market on Polymarket has exactly two outcomes. YES and NO. When the market resolves, one pays $1. The other pays $0. That means owning BOTH sides should always cost exactly $1. But markets aren't perfect. Sometimes YES trades at $0.48 while NO trades at $0.49. Together that's only $0.97 so the bot instantly buys both. A position worth $1... for just $0.97. And Claude knows it, this is the simplest arb that exists. You can paste this to it and use this logic in your prompt. This $0.03 difference is locked in regardless of whether Bitcoin pumps, dumps, or goes sideways. No prediction required. And difficult part isn't finding the opportunity, it's execution. These pricing gaps usually disappear in seconds. If one order fills but the other doesn't, the trade can become a loss. So my bot constantly scans every BTC market, checks fees, validates liquidity, places both orders almost simultaneously and skips what isn't worth the risk. It's less like trading and more like catching tiny accounting mistakes before everyone else notices them. Funny enoughh, the hardest part was not writing arb logic. It was making the execution reliable enough that free money actually stayed free. This completely changed how I think about trading. What's the point of it if you can just fill mispriced BTC markets?? Automatically. The biggest edge is getting AI to execute simple ideas faster and more consistently than any human ever could. Shared the exact build in my last article, leaving it below. Good luck!

Oracle Boar

155,166 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

I asked Claude Fable 5 (Extra High) to build an arb bot for Polymarket. One rule: trade only when YES + NO in 2 hours it almost doubled it (+$98.40) > in 5 hours it showed +$493 PnL > current balance: +$3,279.73 Cost: 7.5M tokens. Here's how it works and why: Every BTC Up/Down market on Polymarket has exactly two outcomes. YES and NO. When the market resolves, one pays $1. The other pays $0. That means owning BOTH sides should always cost exactly $1. But markets aren't perfect. Sometimes YES trades at $0.48 while NO trades at $0.49. Together that's only $0.97 so the bot instantly buys both. A position worth $1... for just $0.97. And Claude knows it, this is the simplest arb that exists. You can paste this to it and use this logic in your prompt. This $0.03 difference is locked in regardless of whether Bitcoin pumps, dumps, or goes sideways. No prediction required. And difficult part isn't finding the opportunity, it's execution. These pricing gaps usually disappear in seconds. If one order fills but the other doesn't, the trade can become a loss. So my bot constantly scans every BTC market, checks fees, validates liquidity, places both orders almost simultaneously and skips what isn't worth the risk. It's less like trading and more like catching tiny accounting mistakes before everyone else notices them. Funny enoughh, the hardest part was not writing arb logic. It was making the execution reliable enough that free money actually stayed free. This completely changed how I think about trading. What's the point of it if you can just fill mispriced BTC markets?? Automatically. The biggest edge is getting AI to execute simple ideas faster and more consistently than any human ever could. Shared the exact build in my last article, leaving it below.

Oracle Boar

78,062 Aufrufe • vor 12 Tagen