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I still remember Elon telling me that Tesla Robotaxi is a $3-5 trillion opportunity for Tesla. I believed him then. And after riding in more Cybercabs myself, I believe it even more now. The more I experience this product firsthand, the more bullish I become on Robotaxi, Cybercab, and...

34,016 views • 17 days ago •via X (Twitter)

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Biggest warning I’ll give Tesla shorts right now. This time, you’re probably not going to get fucked by some classic short squeeze. You’re going to get fucked by being wrong about what Tesla becomes next. Look at the latest short-interest tape. As of the Aug 14 settlement: • 69,196,896 $TSLA shares short • ~2.2% of the float • 2.15 days to cover • ~$23.7 BILLION worth of stock short And the important part is that… Short interest peaked at 79.1M shares on June 30. So roughly 12.5% of those shorts had already been covered by August 14. So no… I’m NOT sitting here telling you that shorts are trapped. That’s not my thesis. My thesis is actually much more dangerous for a long-term Tesla short. What if they’re simply wrong? Wrong about autonomy. Wrong about Robotaxi. Wrong about Cybercab. And ultimately wrong about what Tesla’s earnings power could look like if this scales. Bc I’ve now watched this story go from something people laughed at… to something I personally rode in. My first Tesla Robotaxi ride in Austin was on launch day, June 22, 2025. Then I came back for the Cybercab launch on September 3, 2026. And it changed the way I look at Tesla. Cybercab isn’t something with Elon standing on a stage telling you what might happen five years from now. You can literally hail one. Pay for a ride. Get inside. There’s no steering wheel. No accelerator. No brake pedal. And it takes paying passengers through real Austin streets. Tesla itself now describes Cybercab as a fully autonomous, purpose-built two-seater in its Robotaxi fleet. That matters... Bc Tesla is no longer trying to prove that Robotaxi can exist bc it does exist. The next question is whether Tesla can scale it safely, economically and fast enough. And THAT is where I think shorts are massively underestimating the company. As of the latest Texas registry data, Tesla has 437 authorized vehicles in Texas - 388 Model Ys/49 Cybercabs It shows how quickly the fleet Tesla is preparing for commercial autonomy is growing. Now zoom out a bit. Tesla already lists more than 125,000 units of installed annual Cybercab manufacturing capacity in Texas. This is INSTALLED capacity. And Tesla calls Cybercab the “workhorse” of its Robotaxi fleet. Tesla spent most of its history making $ by building a vehicle and selling it once. Robotaxi opens a completely different model. Build the vehicle once. Then potentially monetize that same asset again. and again. and again. every time somebody takes a ride. Instead of only asking: “How many cars can Tesla sell this quarter?” You start asking: “How many autonomous miles can Tesla sell every day?” That is a MASSIVE change in the business model. And Cybercab is built specifically for that job. Not around a driver. Around the rider. If Tesla can bring those pieces together at scale, it has the potential to build a transportation network where the machine itself replaces THE largest costs in traditional ride-hailing: the human driver. Then there’s the flywheel. More Cybercabs. More geographic coverage. Shorter wait times. More rides. Higher fleet utilization. More recurring revenue. More capital to deploy even more vehicles. Tesla itself has told investors it expects hardware profits over time to be joined by accelerating AI, software and fleet-based profits. Does Tesla still have to execute? Absolutely. Regulation matters. Safety matters. Utilization matters. Manufacturing ramp matters. The economics have to work at scale. Those are legitimate risks, and anyone pretending otherwise isn’t being serious. But the serious Tesla short thesis can’t just be: “Elon promised autonomy before.” An actual bear now has to explain why a steering-wheel-free vehicle that is already carrying paying passengers won’t scale into a meaningful business. Tesla shorts are still betting against a car company, but I bet Cybercab is about to prove they’re shorting a transportation network.

Teslaconomics

34,223 views • 12 days ago

Whenever I tell people when you buy a Tesla, make sure you eat the cost and buy FSD outright, a majority of people always tell me “FSD is too expensive at $8,000,” without actually looking at the data and numbers behind the true value of FSD. Well, I did. Back in 2019, Elon explained the Robotaxi economics very clearly. “What would be the probable gross profit from a single Robotaxi? We think probably something on the order of $30,000 per year.” BTW, this number also came from conservative assumptions. • ~90,000 miles per year • ~50% utilization (half the miles are non-revenue) • Operating cost around $0.18 per mile (fyi, gas cars are closer to $0.60!) • Tesla takes 25-30% of the revenue • Robotaxi designed to last ~1 million miles So after costs, after Tesla’s cut, and after conservative usage, the estimate still came out to $30,000 per year from a single Robotaxi. So let me do the simple math for you. If a Robotaxi generates $30,000 per year, and you assume just 10 years of useful Robotaxi life, even though the car is going to be designed for more: 1/ $30,000 × 10 years = $300,000 Now, let’s cut that number by 50% for uncertainty, downtime, or slower rollout… I’m being conservative here. 2/ $300,000 ÷ 2 = $150,000 That means the FSD value is NOT $8,000. It’s six figures! This is why every Tesla owner should buy FSD outright right now! And is also the reason why Tesla is ending this option in February imo. You see, this is what happens when you see FSD as an income generating business, instead of just a feature. FSD is SIGNIFICANTLY undervalued. And whenever I tell people that I’m going to be the biggest Tesla Robotaxi fleet operator one day and show the world how much $ I’m making for each Robotaxi in operation, they all still laugh at me in disbelief. (I hope Elon and Tesla will let me be one of the first owners when the time comes… 🤞) But I also know that people always doubted me my whole life… until things actually became real. That’s why I’ve never seen my Tesla as just a car that depreciates like other non-Teslas. It’s the exact opposite. And one day, when these cars are driving themselves and generating $ income for me while I’m sleeping, all of the doubters will become silent. Mark my words.

Teslaconomics

154,677 views • 8 months ago

The Tesla Cybercab launch was magical. I’ve spent years talking about what autonomous transportation would become. This week, I got to live it. And what surprised me most was NOT that the Cybercab had no steering wheel. It was NOT the butterfly doors. It was NOT even how futuristic the car looked. It was honestly how NORMAL it felt. I just get in. Sit down. Put my seatbelt on. Press one button. And go on w/ my life. No fear or anxiety at all. At one point I literally forgot there wasn’t a driver in front of me. The ride was unbelievably smooth. And that’s when it really hit me… this is how transportation changes… when the technology becomes so seamless that you stop thinking about the technology at all. The entire Cybercab experience is ridiculously simple: 1/ Order the Cybercab from your phone. 2/ It arrives, recognizes your phone, and can automatically open the door for you. 3/ Get in, buckle up, and the doors close. 4/ Press one button on the screen to begin the ride. 5/ You can work, talk, watch something, listen to music, enjoy the scenery… do whatever you want bc the car handles the entire driving. 6/ Arrive, get out, and payment is handled automatically via the app w/ no tipping. That’s it. Some people are probably still going to say: “Elon was late.” “FSD will never work.” “Tesla is still just a car company.” “Who would trust a car w/ no driver?” “Who would ever get into a car w/ no steering wheel or pedals?” “Cybercab/Robotaxis will never scale.” I’ve heard versions of this stuff for years… And yet here I was. Sitting inside the product. Paying for rides. Driving around Austin w/ nobody behind the wheel. After experiencing Cybercab myself, I understand what the Tesla team was building toward. The car. The autonomy. The safety. The software. The app. The pickup experience. The doors. The payment. The entire experience had to feel like ONE product. Bc if Tesla gets that experience right and then scales it across America, this becomes MUCH bigger than another Tesla vehicle. It will change how people think about owning a car. It changes ride-hailing. It changes what we do with the time we currently spend driving. It changes transportation. And I think Tesla absolutely knocked this product out of the park. What makes this even more personal for me is how grateful I am that I was invited to experience this moment. As the only Korean in the world, being invited to the launch and getting the opportunity to be the first one to ride in a Cybercab is something I’ll remember for the rest of my life. Seriously. What a freaking life… hate me or love me, nothing honestly compares to this. Austin… Your food was incredible. The people were unbelievably kind to me. The city treated my family and me so well. I loved almost everything about you, except the heat. And Tesla and Elon… Thank you. You have genuinely changed the direction of my life. You gave me something I am deeply passionate about. The products. The technology. The people building them. The crazy ideas that sound impossible right up until the day they’re sitting in front of you. Today I head back to the Bay Area. But my mind can’t stop thinking about what I just experienced. There was a point when people started saying Tesla’s biggest growth days were behind it. After this week… I feel the exact opposite. Cybercab reignited that fire in me. It feels like I just watched the first few minutes of the next chapter/book of Tesla. And if what I experienced in Austin scales to cities around the country… Transportation will NEVER be the same. One day my kids will look back at human-driven cars the same way we look at an elevator operator today. Something that once seemed completely normal… until technology made it unnecessary. I came to Austin excited about Cybercab. I’m leaving even more excited about what comes next. The future is going to be so freaking amazing. Till next time, Austin!

Teslaconomics

21,092 views • 16 days ago