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"I think the best risk-adjusted returns right now are in public software names. We believe that it is the incumbents' game to lose." — growth equity investor Mitchell Green

Marcelo P. Lima

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58,659 views • 4 months ago •via X (Twitter)

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Mitchell on why the best risk-adjusted returns right now are in public software names: "We believe that it is the incumbent's game to lose. The competitive advantage of software company has never been about R&D. Exxon or KKR or Proctor and Gamble probably spent 3-5 years implementing the software. If you think they're going to start building their own HR software, you're out of your mind. I like to remind people if you look at e-commerce, in 1999-2000, everybody thought every big box retailer was going out of business. But if you look at the top 50 largest e-commerce companies in the United States, yes, Amazon is number one. You know who like 2 through 10 are? Walmart, Home Depot, Lowe's, Macy's, Target. A lot of the incumbents will win. Now again, Montgomery Ward, Kmart, Sears went bust, but that's what we're constantly thinking about."

Mitchell on why the best risk-adjusted returns right now are in public software names: "We believe that it is the incumbent's game to lose. The competitive advantage of software company has never been about R&D. Exxon or KKR or Proctor and Gamble probably spent 3-5 years implementing the software. If you think they're going to start building their own HR software, you're out of your mind. I like to remind people if you look at e-commerce, in 1999-2000, everybody thought every big box retailer was going out of business. But if you look at the top 50 largest e-commerce companies in the United States, yes, Amazon is number one. You know who like 2 through 10 are? Walmart, Home Depot, Lowe's, Macy's, Target. A lot of the incumbents will win. Now again, Montgomery Ward, Kmart, Sears went bust, but that's what we're constantly thinking about."

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