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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Ian Bremmer’s biggest concern in the Iran war is command and control. Washington and Tehran may both want to contain the conflict. That doesn’t mean every decision remains under their control. “𝘞𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘸𝘰𝘶𝘭𝘥 𝘪𝘵 𝘵𝘢𝘬𝘦 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘢 𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘮𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘵𝘳𝘰𝘭 𝘥𝘦𝘤𝘪𝘴𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘦𝘯𝘥𝘴 𝘶𝘱 𝘥𝘦𝘤𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘭𝘪𝘻𝘦𝘥, 𝘩𝘪𝘵𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘴𝘰𝘮𝘦𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵... 𝘭𝘦𝘢𝘥𝘴 𝘵𝘰 𝘢𝘯 𝘶𝘯𝘪𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘯𝘥𝘦𝘥 𝘦𝘴𝘤𝘢𝘭𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯?” Bremmer points to softer targets such as a major Gulf desalination plant. One mistaken strike could cause mass panic and force political leaders into a response they never intended. The longer the war runs, the more opportunities there are for one decision far below the top to become the decision that changes the entire war. ian bremmershow more

Mario Nawfal

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22,423 views • 14 days ago •via X (Twitter)

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3 Comments

Mark100014 days ago

Just a reminder. Since Mid July the US Navy escorted hundreds of Tankers through the straights, while Iran didn't move a drop. Thank for your attention to this matter.

Mafia Ka Dushman14 days ago

Americans be out in jail for 5 years for Antisemitic flyers. Americans are slave in their own country

pecinta seblak14 days ago

This new pace has been a very pleasant surprise. I'm enjoying the space in my head.

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90,018 views • 2 months ago

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Mario Nawfal

263,568 views • 1 month ago

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Journalist Sharmine Narwani says Trump is trying to claim credit for a Hormuz deal he did not negotiate and may no longer have the power to stop. She argues there is no U.S-Iran deal; Washington and Tehran are not even negotiating directly. The real discussions are taking place between Iran and Oman, with Gulf states increasingly backing a regional solution to a crisis America created but could not control. And that distinction matters. Trump wants to present any reopening of the Strait of Hormuz as another war he personally solved, but Sharmine says the real story is almost the exact opposite. Regional states are no longer waiting for Washington to decide how they engage with their neighbors. They are taking matters into their own hands because leaving their security to the U.S became too dangerous. The emerging Hormuz arrangement is still being negotiated, but one Iranian position appears immovable: The Strait will never return to the system that existed before the war. Iran could retain authority over inbound traffic, oversight of vessels using the Omani route, the power to inspect or block ships it considers hostile, and transit or service fees also remain on the table. Even a final agreement would not mean business as usual, because any renewed attack on Iran could immediately close the Strait again. America may now have to accept an arrangement written by Iran and Oman, supported by Gulf nations and only reluctantly tolerated by Washington. Sharmine argues this reflects something much larger than a dispute over shipping lanes: The old regional order is breaking down. For decades, Washington expected allies and adversaries alike to wait for American approval before making major security decisions. This war changed that calculation, and Iran emerged not isolated or broken, but with greater influence over the diplomatic endgame. Her argument is that the U.S did not merely fail to defeat Iran; it accelerated the rise of the regional power it entered the war to contain. Sharmine Narwani

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Journalist Sharmine Narwani says Trump is trying to claim credit for a Hormuz deal he did not negotiate and may no longer have the power to stop. She argues there is no U.S-Iran deal; Washington and Tehran are not even negotiating directly. The real discussions are taking place between Iran and Oman, with Gulf states increasingly backing a regional solution to a crisis America created but could not control. And that distinction matters. Trump wants to present any reopening of the Strait of Hormuz as another war he personally solved, but Sharmine says the real story is almost the exact opposite. Regional states are no longer waiting for Washington to decide how they engage with their neighbors. They are taking matters into their own hands because leaving their security to the U.S became too dangerous. The emerging Hormuz arrangement is still being negotiated, but one Iranian position appears immovable: The Strait will never return to the system that existed before the war. Iran could retain authority over inbound traffic, oversight of vessels using the Omani route, the power to inspect or block ships it considers hostile, and transit or service fees also remain on the table. Even a final agreement would not mean business as usual, because any renewed attack on Iran could immediately close the Strait again. America may now have to accept an arrangement written by Iran and Oman, supported by Gulf nations and only reluctantly tolerated by Washington. Sharmine argues this reflects something much larger than a dispute over shipping lanes: The old regional order is breaking down. For decades, Washington expected allies and adversaries alike to wait for American approval before making major security decisions. This war changed that calculation, and Iran emerged not isolated or broken, but with greater influence over the diplomatic endgame. Her argument is that the U.S did not merely fail to defeat Iran; it accelerated the rise of the regional power it entered the war to contain. Sharmine Narwani

Mario Nawfal

230,974 views • 1 month ago

🚨🇺🇸 🇮🇱 "Israel is in charge, they control Trump," and one wartime decision proves it. Tucker points to the moment Washington shifted missile defense away from Doha, Abu Dhabi, Dubai, and Riyadh, America's most faithful allies, and moved it to Israel in the middle of the war. The Gulf states never started this fight, yet they're the ones absorbing the missiles without protection: "That's the clearest possible illustration of who's in charge." That shift, he says, is the clearest possible illustration of who's in charge. And the Gulf leaders watching their cities go undefended are very aware of what just happened. Tucker Carlson TCN

🚨🇺🇸 🇮🇱 "Israel is in charge, they control Trump," and one wartime decision proves it. Tucker points to the moment Washington shifted missile defense away from Doha, Abu Dhabi, Dubai, and Riyadh, America's most faithful allies, and moved it to Israel in the middle of the war. The Gulf states never started this fight, yet they're the ones absorbing the missiles without protection: "That's the clearest possible illustration of who's in charge." That shift, he says, is the clearest possible illustration of who's in charge. And the Gulf leaders watching their cities go undefended are very aware of what just happened. Tucker Carlson TCN

Mario Nawfal

242,865 views • 3 months ago

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump threatened to unleash the “gates of hell” against Iran, then he backed away, which in Washington may have been seen as restraint. According to Geopolitical analyst Pepe Escobar, Tehran interpreted it very differently. They saw it as proof that Iran’s deterrence had worked, America’s military options were narrowing, and that the longer Iran holds out, the more leverage it gains. Pepe says that transformed Iran’s objectives. Tehran is no longer thinking only about surviving the war, lifting sanctions or securing control over the Strait of Hormuz. According to his sources, forcing the U.S to retreat from West Asia has now become a central strategic goal. Iran began this conflict trying to prevent America from imposing its will. Pepe believes it now sees an opportunity to dismantle the military system that allowed Washington to threaten it in the first place. And Tehran reportedly believes it has found the mechanism. He says Iran has replaced its previous proportional retaliation policy with a new warning: Strike one Iranian energy target, and Iran will strike ten targets across America’s regional network. The message to Gulf governments is brutal. If they help Trump attack Iran, their refineries, pipelines and export facilities will pay the price. Pepe says that threat is one reason regional leaders pushed Trump to stand down. Saudi Arabia, in particular, understands that another major escalation could devastate the infrastructure it depends on to export oil. For decades, American bases were supposed to protect Gulf allies from Iran, but now those bases are putting the countries hosting them at risk. Pepe Escobar

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump threatened to unleash the “gates of hell” against Iran, then he backed away, which in Washington may have been seen as restraint. According to Geopolitical analyst Pepe Escobar, Tehran interpreted it very differently. They saw it as proof that Iran’s deterrence had worked, America’s military options were narrowing, and that the longer Iran holds out, the more leverage it gains. Pepe says that transformed Iran’s objectives. Tehran is no longer thinking only about surviving the war, lifting sanctions or securing control over the Strait of Hormuz. According to his sources, forcing the U.S to retreat from West Asia has now become a central strategic goal. Iran began this conflict trying to prevent America from imposing its will. Pepe believes it now sees an opportunity to dismantle the military system that allowed Washington to threaten it in the first place. And Tehran reportedly believes it has found the mechanism. He says Iran has replaced its previous proportional retaliation policy with a new warning: Strike one Iranian energy target, and Iran will strike ten targets across America’s regional network. The message to Gulf governments is brutal. If they help Trump attack Iran, their refineries, pipelines and export facilities will pay the price. Pepe says that threat is one reason regional leaders pushed Trump to stand down. Saudi Arabia, in particular, understands that another major escalation could devastate the infrastructure it depends on to export oil. For decades, American bases were supposed to protect Gulf allies from Iran, but now those bases are putting the countries hosting them at risk. Pepe Escobar

Mario Nawfal

286,832 views • 1 month ago

CNN: We have new CNN polling showing how the country feels about this war. Just a third of Americans approve of how the president is handling his role of commander in chief, as well as the war. Two thirds disapprove of the decision to take military action in Iran, and strong opposition has grown 12 points since the start of the war. 63% of Americans say that they believe it's likely that the war will turn into a long term military conflict. Nearly 7 in 10 oppose sending U.S. Ground troops into Iran. 71% say they don't want congress to authorize $200 billion for further military action in Iran.

CNN: We have new CNN polling showing how the country feels about this war. Just a third of Americans approve of how the president is handling his role of commander in chief, as well as the war. Two thirds disapprove of the decision to take military action in Iran, and strong opposition has grown 12 points since the start of the war. 63% of Americans say that they believe it's likely that the war will turn into a long term military conflict. Nearly 7 in 10 oppose sending U.S. Ground troops into Iran. 71% say they don't want congress to authorize $200 billion for further military action in Iran.

Acyn

145,530 views • 6 months ago