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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Ian Bremmer’s biggest concern in the Iran war is command and control. Washington and Tehran may both want to contain the conflict. That doesn’t mean every decision remains under their control. “𝘞𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘸𝘰𝘶𝘭𝘥 𝘪𝘵 𝘵𝘢𝘬𝘦 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘢 𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘮𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘵𝘳𝘰𝘭 𝘥𝘦𝘤𝘪𝘴𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘦𝘯𝘥𝘴 𝘶𝘱 𝘥𝘦𝘤𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘭𝘪𝘻𝘦𝘥, 𝘩𝘪𝘵𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘴𝘰𝘮𝘦𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵...

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Mario Nawfal

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22,423 görüntüleme • 14 gün önce •via X (Twitter)

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Mark1000 profil fotoğrafı
Mark100014 gün önce

Just a reminder. Since Mid July the US Navy escorted hundreds of Tankers through the straights, while Iran didn't move a drop. Thank for your attention to this matter.

Mafia Ka Dushman profil fotoğrafı
Mafia Ka Dushman14 gün önce

Americans be out in jail for 5 years for Antisemitic flyers. Americans are slave in their own country

pecinta seblak profil fotoğrafı
pecinta seblak14 gün önce

This new pace has been a very pleasant surprise. I'm enjoying the space in my head.

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 TRUMP IS REPEATING THE DISASTROUS IRAQ WAR STRATEGY The decision to assassinate top Iranian leaders may result in the biggest foreign policy mistake of the Trump administration. By destroying the state and forcing leaders underground, Ian Bremmer warns that Washington is pushing Iran toward a bloody civil war. ian bremmer
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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 TRUMP IS REPEATING THE DISASTROUS IRAQ WAR STRATEGY The decision to assassinate top Iranian leaders may result in the biggest foreign policy mistake of the Trump administration. By destroying the state and forcing leaders underground, Ian Bremmer warns that Washington is pushing Iran toward a bloody civil war. ian bremmer

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🚨🇮🇷 IRAN’S STRATEGY: FORCING THE AMERICANS DOWN The Iranian regime understands they are militarily weaker, but they are betting on their "leverage to disrupt" the global economy. Ian Bremmer explains that by holding the Strait of Hormuz hostage, Tehran believes they can force a U.S. retreat. The political scientist and author warns that while Trump seeks an off-ramp, his lack of clearly articulated war goals makes the situation "unconscionable." Bremmer emphasizes that as long as drone strikes continue, the leverage remains firmly with the disruptors. ian bremmer

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🚨🇺🇸 🇮🇷 THE LARGEST OIL DISRUPTION IN HISTORY We are witnessing a global crisis more draining than the 2008 financial crash, according to political scientist Ian Bremmer. As the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, the founder of GZERO Media warns that "rationing and shortages" are the new reality for oil, gas, and fertilizer. Bremmer notes that you cannot simply bomb a regime into submission when the global supply chain is being cut to the bone. Every day this continues, the global impact spirals further out of control. ian bremmer
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Neither America nor Iran is actually trying to win this war. 6 months into the Iran war, Ian Bremmer sees something strange beneath all the escalation: Restraint. Iran has not launched major attacks on critical Gulf infrastructure. The U.S. has not sent ground troops, attacked Kharg Island, resumed leadership assassinations or unleashed the full economic campaign threatened against countries still dealing with Tehran. Bremmer calls what is happening instead “price discovery.” Washington and Tehran want incompatible outcomes in the Strait of Hormuz, but both are probing for how much pain the other side can absorb. So they escalate just enough to demonstrate leverage, while trying not to trigger the regional war neither side appears to want. That is why Bremmer remains less worried about a sudden massive escalation than many other analysts. “Neither the Iranians nor the Americans are actually trying to win. They're trying to avoid losing.” That distinction explains a lot. Iran keeps enough pressure on shipping and regional infrastructure to preserve leverage. Washington keeps enough military and economic pressure on Iran to deny Tehran control of the outcome. Neither can force the other to surrender. Neither wants to pay the price of trying. So the war continues, not because either side sees a clear path to victory, but because neither has yet found an acceptable way to lose. ian bremmer
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Neither America nor Iran is actually trying to win this war. 6 months into the Iran war, Ian Bremmer sees something strange beneath all the escalation: Restraint. Iran has not launched major attacks on critical Gulf infrastructure. The U.S. has not sent ground troops, attacked Kharg Island, resumed leadership assassinations or unleashed the full economic campaign threatened against countries still dealing with Tehran. Bremmer calls what is happening instead “price discovery.” Washington and Tehran want incompatible outcomes in the Strait of Hormuz, but both are probing for how much pain the other side can absorb. So they escalate just enough to demonstrate leverage, while trying not to trigger the regional war neither side appears to want. That is why Bremmer remains less worried about a sudden massive escalation than many other analysts. “Neither the Iranians nor the Americans are actually trying to win. They're trying to avoid losing.” That distinction explains a lot. Iran keeps enough pressure on shipping and regional infrastructure to preserve leverage. Washington keeps enough military and economic pressure on Iran to deny Tehran control of the outcome. Neither can force the other to surrender. Neither wants to pay the price of trying. So the war continues, not because either side sees a clear path to victory, but because neither has yet found an acceptable way to lose. ian bremmer

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🚨🇺🇸 🇮🇷 TRUMP’S GAMBLE: 7,000 TROOPS AND A FAILED OFF-RAMP The status quo in the Persian Gulf is officially unacceptable to the White House, explains Ian Bremmer. As an expert in non-partisan analysis, Ian highlights that the 7,000 troops arriving in the theater aren't there for "shore leave", they are the vanguard of a ground force escalation. Trump needs a spectacular win to open the Strait, leaving Bremmer to question what this next period of direct conflict will look like. Trump has backed himself into a corner where military action is the only remaining currency. ian bremmer
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🚨🇺🇸 🇮🇷 TRUMP’S GAMBLE: 7,000 TROOPS AND A FAILED OFF-RAMP The status quo in the Persian Gulf is officially unacceptable to the White House, explains Ian Bremmer. As an expert in non-partisan analysis, Ian highlights that the 7,000 troops arriving in the theater aren't there for "shore leave", they are the vanguard of a ground force escalation. Trump needs a spectacular win to open the Strait, leaving Bremmer to question what this next period of direct conflict will look like. Trump has backed himself into a corner where military action is the only remaining currency. ian bremmer

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump remains trapped because he still refuses to accept how much leverage Iran possesses. He still thinks overwhelming American power will eventually force Tehran to give in, and political scientist Ian Bremmer says that's the mistake keeping this war alive. Instead, Iran has shown it can keep raising the economic cost of the war without crossing Trump's red lines. Ian doesn't think Iran believes it can defeat the U.S militarily; it believes it can make continuing the war more painful than ending it. And so far, it's working. Trump keeps threatening to destroy Iran's infrastructure, eliminate its leadership and dramatically escalate the conflict. But Ian points to something more revealing than Trump's rhetoric: His actions. Despite months of fighting, Trump has avoided the biggest escalations. No ground invasion, no sustained campaign against Iran's energy sector, and no full-scale assault on the country's leadership. Even after American casualties, his instinct has repeatedly been to play them down rather than use them to justify a much wider war. And Tehran has noticed. It increasingly sees a president who talks like he's preparing for total war but behaves like someone searching for an exit. The bigger problem, Ian says, is inside the White House itself. Trump's advisers know the military and economic costs are mounting, and many want the war to end, but very few are willing to tell Trump the uncomfortable truth: Iran has far more leverage over how this ends than Washington expected. Until Trump accepts that reality, Ian believes a genuine compromise remains unlikely. ian bremmer
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump remains trapped because he still refuses to accept how much leverage Iran possesses. He still thinks overwhelming American power will eventually force Tehran to give in, and political scientist Ian Bremmer says that's the mistake keeping this war alive. Instead, Iran has shown it can keep raising the economic cost of the war without crossing Trump's red lines. Ian doesn't think Iran believes it can defeat the U.S militarily; it believes it can make continuing the war more painful than ending it. And so far, it's working. Trump keeps threatening to destroy Iran's infrastructure, eliminate its leadership and dramatically escalate the conflict. But Ian points to something more revealing than Trump's rhetoric: His actions. Despite months of fighting, Trump has avoided the biggest escalations. No ground invasion, no sustained campaign against Iran's energy sector, and no full-scale assault on the country's leadership. Even after American casualties, his instinct has repeatedly been to play them down rather than use them to justify a much wider war. And Tehran has noticed. It increasingly sees a president who talks like he's preparing for total war but behaves like someone searching for an exit. The bigger problem, Ian says, is inside the White House itself. Trump's advisers know the military and economic costs are mounting, and many want the war to end, but very few are willing to tell Trump the uncomfortable truth: Iran has far more leverage over how this ends than Washington expected. Until Trump accepts that reality, Ian believes a genuine compromise remains unlikely. ian bremmer

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 TARGETING KHARG ISLAND: THE RISKS OF OCCUPATION U.S. military officials suggest it would take at least 12,000 to 15,000 troops to take and hold Kharg Island, reports Ian Bremmer. The political analyst notes that moving ground forces into contested territory puts them directly within "drone and artillery range" of the Iranian mainland. Ian warns that if the UAE is seen as directly involved in driving this escalation, Iran may redirect its remaining firepower at Emirati cities. For Bremmer, the danger of a racheting conflict is that the U.S. doesn't yet have the boots on the ground required for the goals they've set. ian bremmer
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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 TARGETING KHARG ISLAND: THE RISKS OF OCCUPATION U.S. military officials suggest it would take at least 12,000 to 15,000 troops to take and hold Kharg Island, reports Ian Bremmer. The political analyst notes that moving ground forces into contested territory puts them directly within "drone and artillery range" of the Iranian mainland. Ian warns that if the UAE is seen as directly involved in driving this escalation, Iran may redirect its remaining firepower at Emirati cities. For Bremmer, the danger of a racheting conflict is that the U.S. doesn't yet have the boots on the ground required for the goals they've set. ian bremmer

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Tucker Carlson on Iran: “The Iraq war was a catastrophe, and Trump was the first major political figure willing to say so. He’s always known it. So the question is: why would he even contemplate another war, this time with Iran? One answer is that Washington may not fully control whether such a war begins. Israel, under Benjamin Netanyahu, could decide to strike Iran on its own, without coordination. If that happened, Iran would almost certainly retaliate against Israel, and could also hit U.S. assets and energy infrastructure in the Gulf. At that point, America would be pulled in automatically. From that perspective, the U.S. may not be seeking a war with Iran at all, but instead trying to restrain the actions of its closest ally and prevent a wider conflict.”
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Tucker Carlson on Iran: “The Iraq war was a catastrophe, and Trump was the first major political figure willing to say so. He’s always known it. So the question is: why would he even contemplate another war, this time with Iran? One answer is that Washington may not fully control whether such a war begins. Israel, under Benjamin Netanyahu, could decide to strike Iran on its own, without coordination. If that happened, Iran would almost certainly retaliate against Israel, and could also hit U.S. assets and energy infrastructure in the Gulf. At that point, America would be pulled in automatically. From that perspective, the U.S. may not be seeking a war with Iran at all, but instead trying to restrain the actions of its closest ally and prevent a wider conflict.”

Open Source Intel

58,984 görüntüleme • 7 ay önce

In response to a question regarding Israel’s role in influencing the decision to resume combat operations against Iran, U.S. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth made clear that U.S. decision-making, as it relates to the aforementioned possibility, remains in the hands of U.S. President Donald J. Trump. He added that they are still thankful for the Israeli coordination, intelligence, and capabilities that they have been able to provide since the beginning of the conflict.
0:37

In response to a question regarding Israel’s role in influencing the decision to resume combat operations against Iran, U.S. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth made clear that U.S. decision-making, as it relates to the aforementioned possibility, remains in the hands of U.S. President Donald J. Trump. He added that they are still thankful for the Israeli coordination, intelligence, and capabilities that they have been able to provide since the beginning of the conflict.

OSINTdefender

123,602 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The U.S. and Iran may still have one last chance to avoid another war. Middle East expert Rob Geist Pinfold argues that despite the recent escalation, neither Washington nor Tehran appears eager to return to full-scale conflict. He points to one detail above all. Iran has deliberately avoided striking Israel directly, while the U.S. has so far kept Israel from reentering the fight. According to Rob, that's not a coincidence. Both sides understand that once Israel is back in the war, it becomes much harder to control the pace of escalation or return to diplomacy. He also believes there's a growing divergence between the Trump administration and Netanyahu's government. While Israel has historically been more willing to sustain a prolonged conflict, Rob argues Washington has become increasingly cautious after discovering the last campaign was neither quick nor decisive. His broader point is that both sides are still applying pressure. But they're doing it in ways designed to avoid crossing the one line that could make another regional war almost impossible to stop. Even so, Rob warns that the margin for error is shrinking. One Iranian strike on Israel, or one major strategic miscalculation by either side, could send the entire region straight back up the escalation ladder. Rob Geist Pinfold
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 The U.S. and Iran may still have one last chance to avoid another war. Middle East expert Rob Geist Pinfold argues that despite the recent escalation, neither Washington nor Tehran appears eager to return to full-scale conflict. He points to one detail above all. Iran has deliberately avoided striking Israel directly, while the U.S. has so far kept Israel from reentering the fight. According to Rob, that's not a coincidence. Both sides understand that once Israel is back in the war, it becomes much harder to control the pace of escalation or return to diplomacy. He also believes there's a growing divergence between the Trump administration and Netanyahu's government. While Israel has historically been more willing to sustain a prolonged conflict, Rob argues Washington has become increasingly cautious after discovering the last campaign was neither quick nor decisive. His broader point is that both sides are still applying pressure. But they're doing it in ways designed to avoid crossing the one line that could make another regional war almost impossible to stop. Even so, Rob warns that the margin for error is shrinking. One Iranian strike on Israel, or one major strategic miscalculation by either side, could send the entire region straight back up the escalation ladder. Rob Geist Pinfold

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 On every single war goal Trump set, ballistic missiles, proxy networks, seizing Iranian oil, choosing the next Ayatollah, he has walked back every single one. Ian Bremmer says world leaders from India to Europe to Canada are quietly redirecting defense spending away from American systems. Jobs and contracts that won't come back for decades. One unintended silver lining: OPEC is over and the world is moving faster to renewables because nobody can trust a handful of actors with drones won't close the next chokepoint. "I have never seen a U.S president do this kind of damage." ian bremmer
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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 On every single war goal Trump set, ballistic missiles, proxy networks, seizing Iranian oil, choosing the next Ayatollah, he has walked back every single one. Ian Bremmer says world leaders from India to Europe to Canada are quietly redirecting defense spending away from American systems. Jobs and contracts that won't come back for decades. One unintended silver lining: OPEC is over and the world is moving faster to renewables because nobody can trust a handful of actors with drones won't close the next chokepoint. "I have never seen a U.S president do this kind of damage." ian bremmer

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42,961 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The original arguments over Iran’s nuclear program and missiles are becoming secondary. The real impasse is now control of the Strait of Hormuz. Brandon points to reported departures of anti-war officials and discussions of periodic strikes as signs Trump may be settling into a longer campaign. Washington won’t accept Iranian control of Hormuz. Iran won’t return to the pre-war status quo. That leaves remarkably little room between them. Brandon Weichert
3:46

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The original arguments over Iran’s nuclear program and missiles are becoming secondary. The real impasse is now control of the Strait of Hormuz. Brandon points to reported departures of anti-war officials and discussions of periodic strikes as signs Trump may be settling into a longer campaign. Washington won’t accept Iranian control of Hormuz. Iran won’t return to the pre-war status quo. That leaves remarkably little room between them. Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

64,715 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 For months, the strangest feature of the Iran war has been how carefully both sides have escalated it. Trita Parsi thinks that may be ending. “𝘞𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘶𝘴𝘦𝘥 𝘵𝘰 𝘣𝘦 𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘺 𝘤𝘢𝘭𝘪𝘣𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘥 𝘦𝘴𝘤𝘢𝘭𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘮𝘢𝘺 𝘴𝘵𝘢𝘳𝘵 𝘣𝘦𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘶𝘯𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘵𝘳𝘰𝘭𝘭𝘢𝘣𝘭𝘦 𝘦𝘴𝘤𝘢𝘭𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯.” Washington and Tehran have repeatedly climbed the ladder while deliberately avoiding steps that could trigger something much larger. The U.S. even kept Israel out of the second round, Parsi says, partly because Washington feared Israel would escalate beyond the level it was prepared to manage. Yemen now threatens to break that system. A U.S. attack on the Houthis could trigger Iranian retaliation or action by Iraqi militias. Parsi even raises scenarios in which Kuwait or Bahrain become engulfed and the political map of the Gulf begins changing beyond anyone’s control. “𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘱𝘢𝘵𝘩𝘸𝘢𝘺𝘴 𝘵𝘰𝘸𝘢𝘳𝘥𝘴 𝘥𝘦-𝘦𝘴𝘤𝘢𝘭𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘸𝘪𝘭𝘭 𝘣𝘦𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘦 𝘮𝘶𝘤𝘩, 𝘮𝘶𝘤𝘩 𝘧𝘦𝘸𝘦𝘳.” And here is the maddening part: diplomacy is actually happening. Qatar and Pakistan are heavily involved. Iran and Saudi Arabia are talking directly. Parsi says Tehran is even showing new flexibility, potentially accepting a final agreement different from the existing MOU if negotiations begin from it. But both Washington and Tehran increasingly doubt the other side actually wants a deal. That may be the most dangerous stage of a war. Not when diplomacy disappears. When diplomacy still exists, but nobody trusts it enough to use it. Trita Parsi
30:10

🇺🇸🇮🇷 For months, the strangest feature of the Iran war has been how carefully both sides have escalated it. Trita Parsi thinks that may be ending. “𝘞𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘶𝘴𝘦𝘥 𝘵𝘰 𝘣𝘦 𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘺 𝘤𝘢𝘭𝘪𝘣𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘥 𝘦𝘴𝘤𝘢𝘭𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘮𝘢𝘺 𝘴𝘵𝘢𝘳𝘵 𝘣𝘦𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘶𝘯𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘵𝘳𝘰𝘭𝘭𝘢𝘣𝘭𝘦 𝘦𝘴𝘤𝘢𝘭𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯.” Washington and Tehran have repeatedly climbed the ladder while deliberately avoiding steps that could trigger something much larger. The U.S. even kept Israel out of the second round, Parsi says, partly because Washington feared Israel would escalate beyond the level it was prepared to manage. Yemen now threatens to break that system. A U.S. attack on the Houthis could trigger Iranian retaliation or action by Iraqi militias. Parsi even raises scenarios in which Kuwait or Bahrain become engulfed and the political map of the Gulf begins changing beyond anyone’s control. “𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘱𝘢𝘵𝘩𝘸𝘢𝘺𝘴 𝘵𝘰𝘸𝘢𝘳𝘥𝘴 𝘥𝘦-𝘦𝘴𝘤𝘢𝘭𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘸𝘪𝘭𝘭 𝘣𝘦𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘦 𝘮𝘶𝘤𝘩, 𝘮𝘶𝘤𝘩 𝘧𝘦𝘸𝘦𝘳.” And here is the maddening part: diplomacy is actually happening. Qatar and Pakistan are heavily involved. Iran and Saudi Arabia are talking directly. Parsi says Tehran is even showing new flexibility, potentially accepting a final agreement different from the existing MOU if negotiations begin from it. But both Washington and Tehran increasingly doubt the other side actually wants a deal. That may be the most dangerous stage of a war. Not when diplomacy disappears. When diplomacy still exists, but nobody trusts it enough to use it. Trita Parsi

Mario Nawfal

253,080 görüntüleme • 10 gün önce

🚨 Bilderberg Elites Authorize Israel to Strike U.S. Targets In False Flag Attack According to a whistleblower from inside this week's Bilderberg meeting, the agenda was clear: they officially endorsed the outbreak of World War III - intended not just to redraw borders, but to "reduce and reshape" Western nations, clearing the path for something far more sinister... a one world government. And in the days since that decision? The world’s already been turned upside down. War has erupted between Israel and Iran. Alliances are fracturing. Escalation is accelerating. It’s not coincidence - it’s choreography.
20:26

🚨 Bilderberg Elites Authorize Israel to Strike U.S. Targets In False Flag Attack According to a whistleblower from inside this week's Bilderberg meeting, the agenda was clear: they officially endorsed the outbreak of World War III - intended not just to redraw borders, but to "reduce and reshape" Western nations, clearing the path for something far more sinister... a one world government. And in the days since that decision? The world’s already been turned upside down. War has erupted between Israel and Iran. Alliances are fracturing. Escalation is accelerating. It’s not coincidence - it’s choreography.

TPV Sean

85,533 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

🇺🇸 🇮🇷 A power plant or a bridge for every tanker hit, that's the formula turning this into a regional energy war. Alex Christoforou breaks down how the conflict escalated into an energy war in all but name, with the Strait of Hormuz as the ultimate pressure point: "Iran understands this, and the last thing that Iran wants to have happen is a long, drawn out conflict, which is why they're going to hold on to the big leverage." Control of Hormuz is the whole game. Everything else is noise. Alex Christoforou
3:51

🇺🇸 🇮🇷 A power plant or a bridge for every tanker hit, that's the formula turning this into a regional energy war. Alex Christoforou breaks down how the conflict escalated into an energy war in all but name, with the Strait of Hormuz as the ultimate pressure point: "Iran understands this, and the last thing that Iran wants to have happen is a long, drawn out conflict, which is why they're going to hold on to the big leverage." Control of Hormuz is the whole game. Everything else is noise. Alex Christoforou

Mario Nawfal

90,018 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Economic sanctions are being sold as an alternative to war. But according to Professor Robert Pape, they can become an escalation trap. Pape argues that Trump’s “maximum economic pressure” campaign may succeed tactically by inflicting enormous economic pain on Iran, while failing strategically to force Tehran to surrender. Instead, it could harden the regime and make retaliation more likely. The historical record is ugly. Pape points to Japan in 1941, when American oil sanctions helped convince Japanese leaders that they were facing political and economic extinction. Their response was Pearl Harbor. Iran could face a similar calculation: if sanctions are designed to eventually destroy the regime, Tehran has less reason to simply absorb the punishment and wait. It has every reason to lash back. And Iran has thousands of miles of land borders through which sanctioned goods can still move. Closing those corridors would require military force, potentially dragging the U.S. deeper into the war just to make the sanctions work. Pape's warning is brutally simple: Sanctions may not be the off-ramp from war. They may be the road to the next escalation. Robert A. Pape
40:06

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Economic sanctions are being sold as an alternative to war. But according to Professor Robert Pape, they can become an escalation trap. Pape argues that Trump’s “maximum economic pressure” campaign may succeed tactically by inflicting enormous economic pain on Iran, while failing strategically to force Tehran to surrender. Instead, it could harden the regime and make retaliation more likely. The historical record is ugly. Pape points to Japan in 1941, when American oil sanctions helped convince Japanese leaders that they were facing political and economic extinction. Their response was Pearl Harbor. Iran could face a similar calculation: if sanctions are designed to eventually destroy the regime, Tehran has less reason to simply absorb the punishment and wait. It has every reason to lash back. And Iran has thousands of miles of land borders through which sanctioned goods can still move. Closing those corridors would require military force, potentially dragging the U.S. deeper into the war just to make the sanctions work. Pape's warning is brutally simple: Sanctions may not be the off-ramp from war. They may be the road to the next escalation. Robert A. Pape

Mario Nawfal

263,568 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Journalist Sharmine Narwani says Trump is trying to claim credit for a Hormuz deal he did not negotiate and may no longer have the power to stop. She argues there is no U.S-Iran deal; Washington and Tehran are not even negotiating directly. The real discussions are taking place between Iran and Oman, with Gulf states increasingly backing a regional solution to a crisis America created but could not control. And that distinction matters. Trump wants to present any reopening of the Strait of Hormuz as another war he personally solved, but Sharmine says the real story is almost the exact opposite. Regional states are no longer waiting for Washington to decide how they engage with their neighbors. They are taking matters into their own hands because leaving their security to the U.S became too dangerous. The emerging Hormuz arrangement is still being negotiated, but one Iranian position appears immovable: The Strait will never return to the system that existed before the war. Iran could retain authority over inbound traffic, oversight of vessels using the Omani route, the power to inspect or block ships it considers hostile, and transit or service fees also remain on the table. Even a final agreement would not mean business as usual, because any renewed attack on Iran could immediately close the Strait again. America may now have to accept an arrangement written by Iran and Oman, supported by Gulf nations and only reluctantly tolerated by Washington. Sharmine argues this reflects something much larger than a dispute over shipping lanes: The old regional order is breaking down. For decades, Washington expected allies and adversaries alike to wait for American approval before making major security decisions. This war changed that calculation, and Iran emerged not isolated or broken, but with greater influence over the diplomatic endgame. Her argument is that the U.S did not merely fail to defeat Iran; it accelerated the rise of the regional power it entered the war to contain. Sharmine Narwani
57:25

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Journalist Sharmine Narwani says Trump is trying to claim credit for a Hormuz deal he did not negotiate and may no longer have the power to stop. She argues there is no U.S-Iran deal; Washington and Tehran are not even negotiating directly. The real discussions are taking place between Iran and Oman, with Gulf states increasingly backing a regional solution to a crisis America created but could not control. And that distinction matters. Trump wants to present any reopening of the Strait of Hormuz as another war he personally solved, but Sharmine says the real story is almost the exact opposite. Regional states are no longer waiting for Washington to decide how they engage with their neighbors. They are taking matters into their own hands because leaving their security to the U.S became too dangerous. The emerging Hormuz arrangement is still being negotiated, but one Iranian position appears immovable: The Strait will never return to the system that existed before the war. Iran could retain authority over inbound traffic, oversight of vessels using the Omani route, the power to inspect or block ships it considers hostile, and transit or service fees also remain on the table. Even a final agreement would not mean business as usual, because any renewed attack on Iran could immediately close the Strait again. America may now have to accept an arrangement written by Iran and Oman, supported by Gulf nations and only reluctantly tolerated by Washington. Sharmine argues this reflects something much larger than a dispute over shipping lanes: The old regional order is breaking down. For decades, Washington expected allies and adversaries alike to wait for American approval before making major security decisions. This war changed that calculation, and Iran emerged not isolated or broken, but with greater influence over the diplomatic endgame. Her argument is that the U.S did not merely fail to defeat Iran; it accelerated the rise of the regional power it entered the war to contain. Sharmine Narwani

Mario Nawfal

230,974 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

🚨🇺🇸 🇮🇱 "Israel is in charge, they control Trump," and one wartime decision proves it. Tucker points to the moment Washington shifted missile defense away from Doha, Abu Dhabi, Dubai, and Riyadh, America's most faithful allies, and moved it to Israel in the middle of the war. The Gulf states never started this fight, yet they're the ones absorbing the missiles without protection: "That's the clearest possible illustration of who's in charge." That shift, he says, is the clearest possible illustration of who's in charge. And the Gulf leaders watching their cities go undefended are very aware of what just happened. Tucker Carlson TCN
1:06

🚨🇺🇸 🇮🇱 "Israel is in charge, they control Trump," and one wartime decision proves it. Tucker points to the moment Washington shifted missile defense away from Doha, Abu Dhabi, Dubai, and Riyadh, America's most faithful allies, and moved it to Israel in the middle of the war. The Gulf states never started this fight, yet they're the ones absorbing the missiles without protection: "That's the clearest possible illustration of who's in charge." That shift, he says, is the clearest possible illustration of who's in charge. And the Gulf leaders watching their cities go undefended are very aware of what just happened. Tucker Carlson TCN

Mario Nawfal

242,865 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump threatened to unleash the “gates of hell” against Iran, then he backed away, which in Washington may have been seen as restraint. According to Geopolitical analyst Pepe Escobar, Tehran interpreted it very differently. They saw it as proof that Iran’s deterrence had worked, America’s military options were narrowing, and that the longer Iran holds out, the more leverage it gains. Pepe says that transformed Iran’s objectives. Tehran is no longer thinking only about surviving the war, lifting sanctions or securing control over the Strait of Hormuz. According to his sources, forcing the U.S to retreat from West Asia has now become a central strategic goal. Iran began this conflict trying to prevent America from imposing its will. Pepe believes it now sees an opportunity to dismantle the military system that allowed Washington to threaten it in the first place. And Tehran reportedly believes it has found the mechanism. He says Iran has replaced its previous proportional retaliation policy with a new warning: Strike one Iranian energy target, and Iran will strike ten targets across America’s regional network. The message to Gulf governments is brutal. If they help Trump attack Iran, their refineries, pipelines and export facilities will pay the price. Pepe says that threat is one reason regional leaders pushed Trump to stand down. Saudi Arabia, in particular, understands that another major escalation could devastate the infrastructure it depends on to export oil. For decades, American bases were supposed to protect Gulf allies from Iran, but now those bases are putting the countries hosting them at risk. Pepe Escobar
34:45

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump threatened to unleash the “gates of hell” against Iran, then he backed away, which in Washington may have been seen as restraint. According to Geopolitical analyst Pepe Escobar, Tehran interpreted it very differently. They saw it as proof that Iran’s deterrence had worked, America’s military options were narrowing, and that the longer Iran holds out, the more leverage it gains. Pepe says that transformed Iran’s objectives. Tehran is no longer thinking only about surviving the war, lifting sanctions or securing control over the Strait of Hormuz. According to his sources, forcing the U.S to retreat from West Asia has now become a central strategic goal. Iran began this conflict trying to prevent America from imposing its will. Pepe believes it now sees an opportunity to dismantle the military system that allowed Washington to threaten it in the first place. And Tehran reportedly believes it has found the mechanism. He says Iran has replaced its previous proportional retaliation policy with a new warning: Strike one Iranian energy target, and Iran will strike ten targets across America’s regional network. The message to Gulf governments is brutal. If they help Trump attack Iran, their refineries, pipelines and export facilities will pay the price. Pepe says that threat is one reason regional leaders pushed Trump to stand down. Saudi Arabia, in particular, understands that another major escalation could devastate the infrastructure it depends on to export oil. For decades, American bases were supposed to protect Gulf allies from Iran, but now those bases are putting the countries hosting them at risk. Pepe Escobar

Mario Nawfal

286,832 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

CNN: We have new CNN polling showing how the country feels about this war. Just a third of Americans approve of how the president is handling his role of commander in chief, as well as the war. Two thirds disapprove of the decision to take military action in Iran, and strong opposition has grown 12 points since the start of the war. 63% of Americans say that they believe it's likely that the war will turn into a long term military conflict. Nearly 7 in 10 oppose sending U.S. Ground troops into Iran. 71% say they don't want congress to authorize $200 billion for further military action in Iran.
1:01

CNN: We have new CNN polling showing how the country feels about this war. Just a third of Americans approve of how the president is handling his role of commander in chief, as well as the war. Two thirds disapprove of the decision to take military action in Iran, and strong opposition has grown 12 points since the start of the war. 63% of Americans say that they believe it's likely that the war will turn into a long term military conflict. Nearly 7 in 10 oppose sending U.S. Ground troops into Iran. 71% say they don't want congress to authorize $200 billion for further military action in Iran.

Acyn

145,530 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce