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🇮🇷 🇮🇱 If this war ends with Iran's proxies and nuclear program intact, Iran won. That's the test Jonathan Conricus, fmr. IDF spokesperson, set months ago, and he stands by it now: "If it ends with an intact Iranian network of terror organizations and with an intact nuclear weapons...

43,416 görüntüleme • 18 saat önce •via X (Twitter)

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🇮🇷🇮🇱 Our debate made clear just how far apart Israel and the U.S. actually are on what ""winning"" the Iran war even means. Jonathan Conricus held his line from months ago: no deal is a win unless it dismantles Iran's proxy network and missile program too. Anything short of that, he says, is a loss dressed up as progress. Trita Parsi's pushback: that's the Israeli definition of victory, not the American one. Trump's team has quietly redefined success multiple times already, and Parsi thinks they'll take whatever deal lets them walk away and call it a win. Probably one Israel actively opposes, since lifting sanctions is exactly what Iran wants and Israel doesn't. The sharpest exchange was about munitions. Parsi points to CSIS, an FDD colleague's own public warnings, and even the U.S. ambassador to the UN flagging depleted stockpiles. Conricus's counter: most of that traces back to anonymous sources, and he's skeptical anyone's really counting. Neither one has hard numbers, which itself says something about how opaque this has gotten five months in. Underneath the sparring, an actual disagreement about the region's trajectory: Conricus thinks Iran's regime is running out of money and will eventually collapse under its own weight. Parsi thinks the war has done more to erode U.S. credibility with Gulf allies than it has to weaken Tehran, pointing to Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan forming their own defense pact as evidence countries are already hedging away from relying on Washington. Where they land: Conricus says holding the line against a nuclear-capable Iran is worth the cost, whatever it's cost so far. Parsi says a war under 25% public support, dragging on past its promised 4 days, is actual proof that nobody defined what winning looked like before it started. Thank you both Jonathan Conricus & Trita Parsi

Mario Nawfal

304,084 görüntüleme • 1 gün önce