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🚨 Imagine if FTX never blew up at the top, crypto would look completely different right now. Ex-FTX CEO Patrick Gruhn (now running UpsideOnly) says his old platform would’ve smoked Binance thanks to tokenized stocks and insane prediction markets. Instead, we’re stuck watching offshore perps and pre-IPO gambling on...

58,460 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten •via X (Twitter)

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INTERVIEW: Patrick Gruhn was the CEO of FTX Europe. He sold his company to FTX for $400 million before it collapsed, watched it implode, then bought it back for $30 million. Now he's built something that might be the most interesting idea in trading right now. His company UpsideOnly flips the model. You trade with their money, lose nothing if you're wrong, split the profits 50/50 if you're right. He also gets into why 95% of traders lose, why even AI falls for the same behavioral traps humans do, and what FTX could have been if SBF hadn't gotten greedy. His take: it wasn't outright fraud from day one, it was embezzlement, the same thing banks do legally, except FTX wasn't a bank. Full interview below. Patrick Gruhn Disclaimer: This content was produced in collaboration with the other party and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial or investment advice. Always conduct your own research before making any decisions 01:43 - FTX would probably be bigger than Binance today if Sam Bankman-Fried hadn’t destroyed the company. 03:01 - The new wave of pre-IPO perpetual futures on companies like SpaceX is basically gambling on steroids. 04:19 - Trading platforms sell desperate people the dream of escaping financial pressure overnight. 04:59 - Why retail traders are structurally doomed against market makers and professional liquidity providers. 06:41 - Traders lock in tiny wins but refuse to accept losses until they get wiped out. 09:13 - Trading algorithms are specifically built to exploit human emotional weaknesses. 14:26 - Upside Only trained AI on more than 22 billion trades. 18:38 - The core twist behind Upside Only: users never risk their own money, the company absorbs all losses and only shares profits. 19:58 - Humans are actually much better at identifying entry points than exit points, which is where AI takes over. 20:45 - Leveraged traders often become worse over time because losses psychologically destroy their discipline. 27:05 - Old users eventually go bankrupt and need to be replaced by new victims. 28:54 - Retail traders cannot beat markets unless they have insider information. 31:59 - Suicides, addiction and financial ruin caused by predatory trading platforms and influencers. 35:30 - Casinos actually give people far better odds than crypto leverage trading platforms. 45:40 - FTX would still dominate the industry today if customer funds had never been touched.

Mario Nawfal

465,417 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

🚨 SOMETHING EXTREMELY BAD IS COMING THIS FRIDAY Everyone thought the biggest risk was SpaceX IPO day. Wrong. And if you think SpaceX is going higher, you are completely wrong. SpaceX’s IPO launched at $135. Now it’s trading around $230. That is almost +70% from the IPO price in days. And now the real problem begins. At $230, SpaceX is being valued at almost $3.1 trillion. On only $18.7 billion in annual revenue. That is almost 200x sales. After the IPO, everyone finally sees the same thing: SpaceX demand is massive. Retail wants more. Funds want more. Institutions want more. But money does NOT appear from nowhere. To buy more SpaceX, they need cash. And to get cash, they sell what they already own. Stocks. Crypto. AI names. High-beta tech. Everything retail is already holding. This is a liquidity black hole trading at almost 200x sales. Now connect the dots: The IPO already happened. The first-day pump was already insane. And now everyone who did NOT get enough allocation is heavily buying shares: - LIGHT SHOCK: people sell small positions, stocks get hit first, crypto follows, then markets try to stabilize. - HEAVIER SCENARIO: funds raise cash after the IPO, high-beta tech dumps, Bitcoin loses support, and retail gets trapped. - WORST CASE: everyone rushes to buy at the same time, stocks dump hard, crypto gets hit first, and people get liquidated. And now one of the most hyped IPOs in history is absorbing even more money at one of the most insane valuations ever seen. Reminder: I’ve called all the market tops and bottoms for the last 15 years, including the Bitcoin bottom at $16,000 and the top at $126,000. The next call will be even more important. When I exit the markets completely, I’ll post it here publicly like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.

Alex Mason 👁△

561,154 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🚨 WARNING: FRIDAY COULD BE THE WORST DAY OF 2026!! Everyone said the biggest risk was SpaceX IPO day. But they were just chasing engagement/follows. Think SpaceX keeps going higher from here? Wrong. Hear me out. SpaceX IPO launched at $135. Now it's trading around $230. That's nearly a +70% jump from the launch price in just a few days. And that's where the real problem begins. At $230, SpaceX is valued at almost $3.1 TRILLION. With just $18.7 BILLION in annual revenue. That's nearly 200 times sales. After the IPO, everyone finally sees the same thing: Demand for SpaceX is brutal. Retail wants more. Funds want more. Institutions want more. But money doesn't come out of thin air. To buy more SpaceX, they need liquidity. And to get liquidity, they sell what they already hold. Stocks. Crypto. AI securities. High-beta tech. Everything retail is already holding. This is a liquidity black hole trading at nearly 200x sales. Now connect the dots: The IPO already happened. The first-day pump was already insane. And now everyone who didn't get enough allocation is buying shares en masse: → MILD HIT: people sell small positions, stocks drop first, crypto follows, and then markets try to stabilize. → HARSH Scenario: funds raise liquidity post-IPO, high-beta tech crashes, Bitcoin loses support, and retail gets trapped. → WORST CASE: everyone rushes to buy at once, stocks tank hard, crypto takes the hit first, and people end up liquidated. And now one of the most hyped IPOs in history is still sucking up even more money at one of the most absurd valuations ever seen. It will drag the entire S&P 500 into the abyss. Reminder: I’ve called all the market tops and bottoms for the last 15 years, including the Bitcoin bottom at $16,000 and the top at $126,000. The next call will be even more important. When I exit the markets completely, I’ll post it here publicly like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.

DANNY

51,261 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🚨 WARNING: SOMETHING EXTREMELY BAD IS COMING!! Everyone thought the biggest risk was $SPCX IPO day. WRONG. This is NOT just about SpaceX. → SpaceX valuation: around $2.3 TRILLION → Anthropic valuation: around $965 BILLION → OpenAI valuation: around $1 TRILLION That's almost $4 TRILLION of private market hype trying to enter public markets near the same cycle top. And if you think everything is over and we are going higher, YOU ARE COMPLETELY WRONG. Because after the IPO, everyone finally sees the same thing: SpaceX demand is massive. Retail wants more. Funds want more. Institutions want more. But money does NOT appear from nowhere. To buy more $SPCX, they need cash. And to get cash, they sell what they already own. → Stocks → Crypto → AI names → High beta tech Everything retail is already holding. This is NOT just an IPO. This is a liquidity black hole. Every IPO needs buyers. Every buyer needs cash. And cash does NOT appear from nowhere. Everyone who did NOT get enough allocation will chase $SPCX on Monday. Funds want exposure. Retail wants exposure. Institutions want exposure. But everyone needs dollars first. And when everyone needs dollars at the same time, markets do NOT rotate calmly. They dump what is liquid first. Bitcoin is liquid. Tech is liquid. AI stocks are liquid. That is the real danger. There are only a few ways this goes from here, and they are NOT equal. → LIGHT SHOCK: people sell small positions on Monday, stocks get hit first, crypto follows, then markets try to stabilize. → HEAVIER SCENARIO: funds raise cash after the $SPCX IPO, high beta tech dumps, Bitcoin loses support, and retail gets trapped. → WORST CASE: everyone rushes into $SPCX on Monday at the same time, liquidity disappears from crowded trades, stocks dump HARD, crypto gets hit first, and people get liquidated. But the worst part is simple. This is only the first one. Anthropic and OpenAI are still ahead. Markets are NOT pricing this liquidity drain yet. But they will. I’ve studied macro for 10 years and I called almost every major market top, including the October BTC ATH. Follow and turn notifications on. I’ll post the warning BEFORE it hits the headlines.

Wimar.X

52,065 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat