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🚨 Imagine if FTX never blew up at the top, crypto would look completely different right now. Ex-FTX CEO Patrick Gruhn (now running UpsideOnly) says his old platform would’ve smoked Binance thanks to tokenized stocks and insane prediction markets. Instead, we’re stuck watching offshore perps and pre-IPO gambling on...

58,460 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce •via X (Twitter)

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INTERVIEW: Patrick Gruhn was the CEO of FTX Europe. He sold his company to FTX for $400 million before it collapsed, watched it implode, then bought it back for $30 million. Now he's built something that might be the most interesting idea in trading right now. His company UpsideOnly flips the model. You trade with their money, lose nothing if you're wrong, split the profits 50/50 if you're right. He also gets into why 95% of traders lose, why even AI falls for the same behavioral traps humans do, and what FTX could have been if SBF hadn't gotten greedy. His take: it wasn't outright fraud from day one, it was embezzlement, the same thing banks do legally, except FTX wasn't a bank. Full interview below. Patrick Gruhn Disclaimer: This content was produced in collaboration with the other party and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial or investment advice. Always conduct your own research before making any decisions 01:43 - FTX would probably be bigger than Binance today if Sam Bankman-Fried hadn’t destroyed the company. 03:01 - The new wave of pre-IPO perpetual futures on companies like SpaceX is basically gambling on steroids. 04:19 - Trading platforms sell desperate people the dream of escaping financial pressure overnight. 04:59 - Why retail traders are structurally doomed against market makers and professional liquidity providers. 06:41 - Traders lock in tiny wins but refuse to accept losses until they get wiped out. 09:13 - Trading algorithms are specifically built to exploit human emotional weaknesses. 14:26 - Upside Only trained AI on more than 22 billion trades. 18:38 - The core twist behind Upside Only: users never risk their own money, the company absorbs all losses and only shares profits. 19:58 - Humans are actually much better at identifying entry points than exit points, which is where AI takes over. 20:45 - Leveraged traders often become worse over time because losses psychologically destroy their discipline. 27:05 - Old users eventually go bankrupt and need to be replaced by new victims. 28:54 - Retail traders cannot beat markets unless they have insider information. 31:59 - Suicides, addiction and financial ruin caused by predatory trading platforms and influencers. 35:30 - Casinos actually give people far better odds than crypto leverage trading platforms. 45:40 - FTX would still dominate the industry today if customer funds had never been touched.

Mario Nawfal

465,851 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

🚨 SOMETHING EXTREMELY BAD IS COMING THIS FRIDAY Everyone thought the biggest risk was SpaceX IPO day. Wrong. And if you think SpaceX is going higher, you are completely wrong. SpaceX’s IPO launched at $135. Now it’s trading around $230. That is almost +70% from the IPO price in days. And now the real problem begins. At $230, SpaceX is being valued at almost $3.1 trillion. On only $18.7 billion in annual revenue. That is almost 200x sales. After the IPO, everyone finally sees the same thing: SpaceX demand is massive. Retail wants more. Funds want more. Institutions want more. But money does NOT appear from nowhere. To buy more SpaceX, they need cash. And to get cash, they sell what they already own. Stocks. Crypto. AI names. High-beta tech. Everything retail is already holding. This is a liquidity black hole trading at almost 200x sales. Now connect the dots: The IPO already happened. The first-day pump was already insane. And now everyone who did NOT get enough allocation is heavily buying shares: - LIGHT SHOCK: people sell small positions, stocks get hit first, crypto follows, then markets try to stabilize. - HEAVIER SCENARIO: funds raise cash after the IPO, high-beta tech dumps, Bitcoin loses support, and retail gets trapped. - WORST CASE: everyone rushes to buy at the same time, stocks dump hard, crypto gets hit first, and people get liquidated. And now one of the most hyped IPOs in history is absorbing even more money at one of the most insane valuations ever seen. Reminder: I’ve called all the market tops and bottoms for the last 15 years, including the Bitcoin bottom at $16,000 and the top at $126,000. The next call will be even more important. When I exit the markets completely, I’ll post it here publicly like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.

Alex Mason 👁△

562,473 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

🚨SEC OFFICIALLY GREENLIT TOKENIZED U.S. STOCK TRADING🚨 $XRP, $XLM and $HBAR have been building toward this moment for years. I went through the actual SEC order, and one detail changes how I look at all three. The SEC’s new five-year Innovation Exemption allows qualifying Tokenized Securities Venues to trade real tokenized U.S. stocks through permissioned AMMs and liquidity pools on public blockchains. These tokenized shares must preserve the rights of the underlying stock. But here is the part that matters for crypto. A tokenized U.S. stock can be paired with a non-security crypto asset. And the SEC specifically says the exemption does not limit which type of non-security crypto asset a venue can choose. Now go back six months. The SEC’s March interpretation explicitly listed: XRP XLM HBAR as examples of digital commodities. Read those two developments together. For the first time, I can look at a federal framework where a real tokenized U.S. stock and assets like XRP, XLM or HBAR can potentially exist on opposite sides of the same regulated onchain market. Think: Tokenized stock / XRP Tokenized stock / XLM Tokenized stock / HBAR The real opportunity is not a few network fees. It is liquidity. If a professional market maker supports one of those pools, it needs inventory of the paired asset. That is a completely different type of demand. And these three ecosystems have not been sitting around waiting for tokenization to arrive. Ripple and Aviva Investors are already exploring traditional fund tokenization on XRPL. XRPL has native trading infrastructure, AMMs, credentials, permissioning and tokenization tools. Stellar already hosts roughly $4B in tokenized assets, and DTCC/DTC plans to connect its tokenization service to Stellar, with Russell 1000 stocks, major ETFs and U.S. Treasuries among the asset classes being evaluated. Then Hedera already has Archax, with 100+ tokenized assets and $300M+ in value across names including Aberdeen, State Street, Fidelity International, Legal & General and BlackRock-related fund exposure. Lloyds Banking Group has already used tokenized assets on Hedera as collateral for FX activity. That is why this SEC move feels different to me. These networks spent years building the rails. Now U.S. regulation is starting to create an actual market structure where stocks can move onchain and non-security crypto assets can sit directly beside them as liquidity pairs. That is a much bigger story than “tokenization is bullish.” This is traditional securities liquidity and crypto liquidity beginning to meet. $XRP, $XLM and $HBAR are already standing at that intersection. Which digital commodity gets chosen for the first REAL tokenized-stock liquidity pair?

X Finance Bull

76,769 görüntüleme • 4 gün önce

🚨 WARNING: FRIDAY COULD BE THE WORST DAY OF 2026!! Everyone said the biggest risk was SpaceX IPO day. But they were just chasing engagement/follows. Think SpaceX keeps going higher from here? Wrong. Hear me out. SpaceX IPO launched at $135. Now it's trading around $230. That's nearly a +70% jump from the launch price in just a few days. And that's where the real problem begins. At $230, SpaceX is valued at almost $3.1 TRILLION. With just $18.7 BILLION in annual revenue. That's nearly 200 times sales. After the IPO, everyone finally sees the same thing: Demand for SpaceX is brutal. Retail wants more. Funds want more. Institutions want more. But money doesn't come out of thin air. To buy more SpaceX, they need liquidity. And to get liquidity, they sell what they already hold. Stocks. Crypto. AI securities. High-beta tech. Everything retail is already holding. This is a liquidity black hole trading at nearly 200x sales. Now connect the dots: The IPO already happened. The first-day pump was already insane. And now everyone who didn't get enough allocation is buying shares en masse: → MILD HIT: people sell small positions, stocks drop first, crypto follows, and then markets try to stabilize. → HARSH Scenario: funds raise liquidity post-IPO, high-beta tech crashes, Bitcoin loses support, and retail gets trapped. → WORST CASE: everyone rushes to buy at once, stocks tank hard, crypto takes the hit first, and people end up liquidated. And now one of the most hyped IPOs in history is still sucking up even more money at one of the most absurd valuations ever seen. It will drag the entire S&P 500 into the abyss. Reminder: I’ve called all the market tops and bottoms for the last 15 years, including the Bitcoin bottom at $16,000 and the top at $126,000. The next call will be even more important. When I exit the markets completely, I’ll post it here publicly like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.

DANNY

51,545 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce