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In 1968, Paul Ehrlich predicted that unchecked population growth would cause mass starvation. Instead, the global death rate fell by over a third, and famines disappeared outside of war zones. How did he get it so wrong? In short, he ignored humanity's ability to innovate.

Human Progress

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79,097 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад •via X (Twitter)

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one year later and i’m still not over how he fell to his knees, how he covered his face cause he was so overwhelmed, how he tried to capture every single detail of the audience with tears in his eyes, and how he did not want to leave that stage.

one year later and i’m still not over how he fell to his knees, how he covered his face cause he was so overwhelmed, how he tried to capture every single detail of the audience with tears in his eyes, and how he did not want to leave that stage.

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Paul Ehrlich: the most damaging intellectual of the late 20th century Few individuals have done more to distort Western thinking on civilization, progress, and human flourishing than Paul Ehrlich. His central thesis was that the Earth was dangerously overpopulated, and that continued population growth would make famine, plague, and war not only inevitable but imminent. In 1970, he issued a string of apocalyptic predictions (none of which came true): >Starvation would surge worldwide and become the new normal >The United States faced imminent famine driven by climate and weather shifts >A global plague would devastate humanity >Rising population and pollution would dramatically increase the odds of thermonuclear war >Basic arithmetic showed the world could not possibly reach 7 billion people by 2000 >Society would pass the point of no return after 1972 Every major forecast collapsed. Global population soared past 7 billion, yet per-capita food production rose, extreme poverty plummeted, and life expectancy increased. Yet the overpopulation myth he popularized never died. That is the real tragedy. Because the idea survived, governments and institutions continue to shape policy around it, often with coercive population control measures, anti-natalist cultural messaging, and hostility to human flourishing. Policies built on false premises rarely end well. They tend to produce exactly the kind of stagnation and misery their architects claimed to prevent. Paul Ehrlich belongs in the dustbin of history. The sooner his intellectual legacy is discarded, the better.

Paul Ehrlich: the most damaging intellectual of the late 20th century Few individuals have done more to distort Western thinking on civilization, progress, and human flourishing than Paul Ehrlich. His central thesis was that the Earth was dangerously overpopulated, and that continued population growth would make famine, plague, and war not only inevitable but imminent. In 1970, he issued a string of apocalyptic predictions (none of which came true): >Starvation would surge worldwide and become the new normal >The United States faced imminent famine driven by climate and weather shifts >A global plague would devastate humanity >Rising population and pollution would dramatically increase the odds of thermonuclear war >Basic arithmetic showed the world could not possibly reach 7 billion people by 2000 >Society would pass the point of no return after 1972 Every major forecast collapsed. Global population soared past 7 billion, yet per-capita food production rose, extreme poverty plummeted, and life expectancy increased. Yet the overpopulation myth he popularized never died. That is the real tragedy. Because the idea survived, governments and institutions continue to shape policy around it, often with coercive population control measures, anti-natalist cultural messaging, and hostility to human flourishing. Policies built on false premises rarely end well. They tend to produce exactly the kind of stagnation and misery their architects claimed to prevent. Paul Ehrlich belongs in the dustbin of history. The sooner his intellectual legacy is discarded, the better.

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Paul Ehrlich paid Julian Simon after every metal he bet on got cheaper by more than half while the world added 800 million people. Simon called him out in 1980 and told him to pick any five resources. If the planet was really running out, those prices had to climb over the next decade. Ehrlich went with chromium, copper, nickel, tin and tungsten. 10 years later, all 5 had fallen and population was up 800 million. Malthus kicked this off in 1798 claiming population always outruns food and leaves us in permanent famine. Ehrlich revived it in 1968 with “The Population Bomb” and predicted hundreds of millions would starve in the 70s and 80s. They never did. Human ingenuity keeps finding and extracting more faster than we use it up. Anyone still pushing the population bomb narrative in 2026 needs to explain why the most famous doomsday prophet had to write that check.

Paul Ehrlich paid Julian Simon after every metal he bet on got cheaper by more than half while the world added 800 million people. Simon called him out in 1980 and told him to pick any five resources. If the planet was really running out, those prices had to climb over the next decade. Ehrlich went with chromium, copper, nickel, tin and tungsten. 10 years later, all 5 had fallen and population was up 800 million. Malthus kicked this off in 1798 claiming population always outruns food and leaves us in permanent famine. Ehrlich revived it in 1968 with “The Population Bomb” and predicted hundreds of millions would starve in the 70s and 80s. They never did. Human ingenuity keeps finding and extracting more faster than we use it up. Anyone still pushing the population bomb narrative in 2026 needs to explain why the most famous doomsday prophet had to write that check.

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2 years later and i still can’t get over how harry fell to his knees, how he covered his face cause he was so overwhelmed and tried to keep it together, and how he attempted to capture every detail of the audience just one last time with tears in his eyes

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An Australian economist just went on PBD and told young people not to have children — and to learn how to hunt because climate change will cause civilization to collapse. This is the Malthusian doomerism Elon Musk keeps warning about. Paul Ehrlich said the same thing in 1968. Predicted mass starvation by the 1980s. Wrong. Meanwhile the actual crisis is already here: — USA birth rate: 1.6 — Germany: 1.4 — England: 1.39 — Japan: 1.15 — South Korea: 0.75 Replacement rate is 2.1. Not a single major Western nation is close. Do the opposite of what Prof. Steve Keen says. Have two kids. Preferably three. Having children is the greatest source of joy and purpose a human being can experience. The greatest threat to Western civilization isn't the climate. It's that we got talked out of the most important thing in life.

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In 2024, Elon Musk called Paul Ehrlich “a terrible human being” whose “books have done great damage to humanity.” “I noticed this more than 20 years ago, but birthrate trends in countries that pass a certain level of economic development were falling well below replacement — if they weren’t already below it. If these trends continue, most countries will dwindle into insignificance.” Ehrlich is best known for his 1968 book The Population Bomb, which popularized fears of mass overpopulation and global resource collapse. The book helped ignite the modern Malthusian movement pushing aggressive population-control policies around the world. Ehrlich passed away this week at the age of 93.

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