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In 2018, Nassim Nicholas Taleb gave a 61-min masterclass on why systems fail when decision-makers don't share the downside. 685K views. His frameworks: - No downside, no discipline - Moral hazard with better branding - Fragility hides in incentives 12 insights: 🧵

andrew engler

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108,989 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад •via X (Twitter)

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Nassim Taleb: the richest man in the Roman Empire woke up every morning pretending he was poor. Seneca had more to lose than to gain from his wealth - so he rehearsed losing it. Every so often he'd live on bread and water as if shipwrecked, just to make the downside familiar and harmless. That's the whole game, Taleb says: arrange your life so you have far more upside than downside - then randomness stops scaring you. "Make more when you're right than you lose when you're wrong - that's antifragile." "Always keep more upside than downside from random events." "The Stoics aren't unmoved by the world - only by bad events." ~70 min, free. the oldest trick for surviving a world you can't predict ↓

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B.M.

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No author has shaped my worldview more than Nassim Taleb (Nassim Nicholas Taleb). I stumbled on The Black Swan eight years ago, then inhaled the rest of the Incerto. I've increasingly come to appreciate the importance of its ideas to prolonging the human story. Was an honour to speak with Nassim on the podcast. Hard to summarise our conversation, but the timestamps below capture the gist. Enjoy! Timestamps: (0:00:55) - Heuristics for knowing when you're in Mediocristan versus Extremistan. (0:06:06) - Are certain tail exponents intrinsic? (0:10:30) - Why hasn't Universa's tail hedging strategy now been fully priced in? (0:11:52) - Does the power law distribution of startup returns mean VCs should concentrate their bets, or spray and pray? (0:15:20) - Nassim's 30-minute take on the field of behavioural economics. (0:48:57) - Nassim's 20-minute take on superforecasting. (1:11:03) - The Precautionary Principle and AI. (1:17:28) - What are LLMs doing? (1:23:10) - War, violence, & "the empirical mean is not the real mean". (1:39:17) - Covid, & how Western governments think about tail risk. (1:43:38) - What's the most important thing people in social science get wrong about correlation? (1:52:58) - How does Nassim explain the perspicacity of the Russian school of probability? (1:55:56) - Why doesn't Hayek's knowledge argument extend to prediction markets? (1:58:26) - If mean absolute deviation is a better measure than standard deviation, why has the latter become commonplace? (2:01:09) - Nassim's next book, and what he's up to at the moment.

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The FBI Director tried to bulldoze a reporter. It did not work. When a reporter pressed Kash Patel to explain why his own lawsuit claimed he couldn't log into FBI systems, Patel skipped the answer, polled the room for sympathy, then looked the reporter dead in the eye and said "you are lying." The reporter didn't flinch. He cited the lawsuit. Patel's lawsuit. Filed by Patel's own legal team. No stumble. No retreat. Just the facts, on camera, in front ot everyone. This is what it looks like when a reporter refuses to be intimidated by the most powerful law enforcement official in the country. Share this post. Follow Jennifer Get In Good Trouble. We don't go quiet.

The FBI Director tried to bulldoze a reporter. It did not work. When a reporter pressed Kash Patel to explain why his own lawsuit claimed he couldn't log into FBI systems, Patel skipped the answer, polled the room for sympathy, then looked the reporter dead in the eye and said "you are lying." The reporter didn't flinch. He cited the lawsuit. Patel's lawsuit. Filed by Patel's own legal team. No stumble. No retreat. Just the facts, on camera, in front ot everyone. This is what it looks like when a reporter refuses to be intimidated by the most powerful law enforcement official in the country. Share this post. Follow Jennifer Get In Good Trouble. We don't go quiet.

DulceBiatch

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Robert Kennedy Jr. says autism went from 1 in 10,000 in his generation to 1 in 34 today. In boys, it's now 1 in 22. He asked a question on Joe Rogan that no one has answered. "Where are the 69-year-old men who are wearing helmets and non-toilet trained? If it was always this common, they'd be everywhere. They don't exist." When California's state legislature commissioned a scientist to determine whether this was just better diagnosis, the answer came back: no. The epidemic is real. Something changed in our environment. It gets worse every single year - and no one will explain why. — Robert Kennedy Jr. (Robert F. Kennedy Jr) on JRE (Joe Rogan) Follow For More Unconventional Health Insights.

Robert Kennedy Jr. says autism went from 1 in 10,000 in his generation to 1 in 34 today. In boys, it's now 1 in 22. He asked a question on Joe Rogan that no one has answered. "Where are the 69-year-old men who are wearing helmets and non-toilet trained? If it was always this common, they'd be everywhere. They don't exist." When California's state legislature commissioned a scientist to determine whether this was just better diagnosis, the answer came back: no. The epidemic is real. Something changed in our environment. It gets worse every single year - and no one will explain why. — Robert Kennedy Jr. (Robert F. Kennedy Jr) on JRE (Joe Rogan) Follow For More Unconventional Health Insights.

Goku

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Nicholas DeOrio on Hasan “denying” Nas Daily his clip “There’s no way that u been on a 6 min 40 sec rant after abt 15 tweets..and then ur position is, I denied him the clip..bro u just created clips for everyone else..u created the discourse..this is how u know he’s mad..he just went on a 7 min rant and a chat message didn’t send him in a spiral..he’s been locked in” “So now we have opposing testimony and he’s saying that this girl felt uncomfortable..why are u saying she’s lying when u assigned the way that she feels”

Nicholas DeOrio on Hasan “denying” Nas Daily his clip “There’s no way that u been on a 6 min 40 sec rant after abt 15 tweets..and then ur position is, I denied him the clip..bro u just created clips for everyone else..u created the discourse..this is how u know he’s mad..he just went on a 7 min rant and a chat message didn’t send him in a spiral..he’s been locked in” “So now we have opposing testimony and he’s saying that this girl felt uncomfortable..why are u saying she’s lying when u assigned the way that she feels”

yeet

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"I want the Palestinians in Gaza to end up calling it Nakba... There will be no Gaza, only the sea... Anyone born there will turn into a terrorist" Avida Bachar is a resident of Kibbutz Be'eri in the Gaza Envelope, whose wife and son were killed on October 7th. Bachar spent the past 20 months promoting his genocidal and racist ideas across Israeli media, which time and again gave him a platform to spread his unhinged views, all while portraying him as some heroic "survivor" with deep insights into the "situation". This interview is from May 29, aired on Channel 14. I have a couple more interviews with Bachar waiting in my backlog to be translated.

"I want the Palestinians in Gaza to end up calling it Nakba... There will be no Gaza, only the sea... Anyone born there will turn into a terrorist" Avida Bachar is a resident of Kibbutz Be'eri in the Gaza Envelope, whose wife and son were killed on October 7th. Bachar spent the past 20 months promoting his genocidal and racist ideas across Israeli media, which time and again gave him a platform to spread his unhinged views, all while portraying him as some heroic "survivor" with deep insights into the "situation". This interview is from May 29, aired on Channel 14. I have a couple more interviews with Bachar waiting in my backlog to be translated.

B.M.

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