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In a newly released technical update, SpaceX's leadership team, which includes communications manager Dan Huot, Director of Satellite Engineering Ian Dahl, and CEO Elon Musk, detailed a highly ambitious infrastructure roadmap to design, manufacture, and operate specialized artificial intelligence computing satellites at scale. Positioned as a major strategic pillar...

22,203 просмотров • 1 месяц назад •via X (Twitter)

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elon musk just sat down with his SpaceX team and explained exactly how they're going to turn humanity into a kardashev type 2 civilization it's one of the most insane things i've ever watched: 1. humanity currently uses less than one trillionth of the sun's energy output. a trillion is a million times a million. on the kardashev scale, the one physicists use to measure how advanced a civilization actually is, we are not even registering. we are effectively non-existent. 2. starship is the first rocket in history designed to be fully reusable. every other mode of transport, cars, planes, ships, bicycles, you take reusability for granted. rockets have always been thrown away after one use. if you had to throw away the plane after every flight, almost nobody would be flying. 3. spacex currently launches 85 to 90% of all mass to orbit on earth. the rest of the world, including most of the us, accounts for maybe 5 to 7%. that's before starship even gets going. 4. the plan is to go from 2,500 tons to orbit per year to a million tons per year. in roughly 3 years. that's not a projection. that's the internal target. 5. data centers are moving to space. by end of next year spacex is targeting 1 gigawatt of ai compute in orbit. then 10x every year after that. 10 gigawatts in 2.5 years. 100 gigawatts in 3.5 years. a terawatt eventually, which is twice the entire electricity consumption of the united states. 6. the ai satellite is actually simpler to build than a starlink satellite. it's mostly solar panels, a radiator, and a rack of gpus. the hard part was already solved building starlink. they're just making it bigger. 7. latency from orbit is about 3 milliseconds. light travels 300 km per millisecond. some people assume orbital compute means high latency. it doesn't. it's 3 milliseconds away. 8. the terafab will be 100 million square feet. ten times the size of the tesla gigafactory texas. the entire global chip industry is on track to hit maybe 100 gigawatts of ai compute per year. a terawatt requires a completely different order of manufacturing. that's why they're building it themselves. 9. to go beyond a terawatt you have to go to the moon. no atmosphere. one-sixth earth's gravity. you manufacture solar panels and radiators directly from moon materials. then you launch ai satellites into deep space using an electromagnetic rail gun. no rocket needed. musk calls this the mass driver. this is the next step on the actual roadmap. 10. if enough mass is going to the moon to run a rail gun operation at that scale, it also means regular people can go. musk's exact words: "i think everyone should go to the moon at least once." 11. the ai satellite has about a terabit of laser link connectivity. it connects to the starlink constellation which then sends data to the ground using frequencies that penetrate clouds and even roofs. the connection never drops regardless of weather. 12. the reference design for the first ai satellites is built around nvidia rubin and GB300 chips. but the architecture is open. google TPUs, amazon trainium, any chip can go up. spacex is building the infrastructure, not locking in the compute. 13. spacex is the only operator on earth with experience running a constellation at the scale of 10,000 satellites. nobody else is even close. that operational knowledge is a moat that cannot be replicated quickly.

Jaynit

77,891 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

A single gigawatt of orbital compute requires roughly 200 Starship launches and Elon Musk is not satisfied with gigawatts (Save this). The target is 100 gigawatts of orbital compute per year which means SpaceX is staring down a launch requirement that no organization in human history has ever attempted at anything close to that scale. He acknowledges that scaling to gigawatts per year in orbit is a very hard challenge, but then points to something most people have missed entirely, SpaceX has already demonstrated the foundational capability, because building and launching thousands of Starlink satellites per year is the same industrial problem applied to a different payload. When you understand the orbital compute satellite as a larger version of Starlink V3 with an Nvidia GPU rack at the center instead of a communications payload, the manufacturing and launch scaling challenge stops looking like science fiction and starts looking like a production ramp. The infrastructure to support that ramp is already being built. SpaceX is currently capacitizing for thousands of launches per year, two launch towers and pads in South Texas are operational, the first pad at Cape Canaveral is nearly complete, a second is on the way at Launch Complex 37, and additional locations are already in discussion. As the CFO says it "You need to have those cost curves as you ramp up in volume and time, your costs go down." The vision he describes for what this eventually enables is striking in its specificity. He imagines asking Grok a question on his phone, the inference running on an orbital compute satellite, and the answer coming back down through Starlink direct-to-cell, a complete AI query processed entirely in space, from prompt to response, without touching a single terrestrial data center. That moment, he says, is closer than the industry thinks, with initial capability demonstrations possible as soon as next year. The bottleneck that stands between now and that moment is not the satellite design, the cooling physics, or the silicon, all of which SpaceX has already worked through.

Milk Road AI

67,791 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

Elon Musk just explained why the SpaceX IPO is an energy story and the energy constraint is why he believes space becomes the only viable path for AI to scale (Save this). The argument he is making is one of the most important and least understood things happening in technology right now. The United States currently consumes roughly 500 gigawatts of electricity on average. To double that capacity which is what continued AI expansion on the current terrestrial trajectory would eventually require would mean building as many power plants as currently exist in the entire country. He is not arguing that this is technically impossible, just that communities are not willing to accept it, that permitting timelines make it unrealistic, and that the hard ceiling on Earth based power generation means the expansion of AI compute will eventually hit a wall that no amount of capital can overcome on the ground. His observation is that in space, that wall does not exist. A solar panel in orbit produces roughly five times more power than the same panel on Earth, operates in continuous sunlight uninterrupted by weather or nighttime, and benefits from the vacuum of space as a completely passive cooling system meaning the two largest operating costs of any terrestrial data center, energy and cooling, are effectively eliminated. He then said that you could theoretically increase harnessed energy by a factor of one million and still be using less than a millionth of the sun's total energy output. This is the underlying physics of why SpaceX filed with the FCC to launch up to one million solar powered AI satellites, and why they described that constellation in their own filing as a first step toward becoming a Kardashev Type II civilization capable of harnessing the full power of the sun. To understand what makes this credible rather than visionary, you need to understand what SpaceX already controls that no other company on earth possesses. Starship, once operating at full cadence, can deliver 100 to 150 tons of payload to orbit per launch, at a target cost per kilogram that is an order of magnitude lower than any existing vehicle. Musk's stated ambition is to scale Starship to 10,000 to 30,000 launches per year, a frequency that would allow the deployment of orbital compute infrastructure at a pace that is currently unimaginable with any existing rocket. He told xAI staff earlier this year that achieving space-based AI at scale will eventually require manufacturing facilities on the moon, building solar panels and heat dissipation structures from lunar silicon and aluminum, and launching them into orbit from there rather than from Earth's surface because the moon's lower gravity makes the economics of launch dramatically more favorable. SpaceX's S-1 filing explicitly states that its launch capabilities could enable massive AI compute satellite constellations with the potential for millions of satellites for orbital data centers, with the first launch potentially occurring as soon as 2028. Google and Alphabet are already in advanced talks with SpaceX about deploying space-based data centers. Starcloud, a startup running Nvidia H100 GPUs in orbit, has already validated that high-performance AI inference workloads can operate in space, with plans to scale to five gigawatts of orbital compute power by 2035. This is why Musk believes the cost crossover happens in two to three years because SpaceX's launch cost trajectory intersects with the accelerating energy constraint on the ground in a way that makes space genuinely cheaper, faster, and less regulated at exactly the moment AI demand is hitting its hardest physical limits.

Milk Road AI

12,140 просмотров • 1 месяц назад