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🇺🇸🇮🇷 In April, Will Chamberlain declared the Iran war effectively won, calling it a “geopolitical masterstroke.” He now acknowledges that victory call was premature. But Chamberlain says his underlying assessment hasn’t changed: Iran suffered enormous military damage in the opening weeks, while its remaining missile and drone arsenal has...

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Mario Nawfal

3,930,948 subscribers

43,500 görüntüleme • 16 saat önce •via X (Twitter)

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5 Yorum

pooter profil fotoğrafı
pooter16 saat önce

I sincerely do not understand how anyone can take Will chamberlain seriously

Dustin profil fotoğrafı
Dustin16 saat önce

If your underlying assessment leads you the conclusion that the US had effectively won then wouldn’t uyour assessment be flawed aswell?

Victoria Bennett profil fotoğrafı
Victoria Bennett16 saat önce

I agree with the need for nuance here. You and @Kamoflawless are two accounts I follow because both of you distinguish tactical damage from strategic victory. The conflict remains unresolved, with Iran under heavy pressure but the U.S. also facing resource strain and limited diplomatic progress.

Boomer Remover profil fotoğrafı
Boomer Remover16 saat önce

Will is clearly a propagandist. All of them sang the same song in March/April.. He is not a good faith actor, why do you platform guys like this? Whatever he says today will be wrong AGAIN later.

Melissa profil fotoğrafı
Melissa16 saat önce

forecasting is rarely that simple

Benzer Videolar

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Will Chamberlain: The U.S. underestimated Iran. That doesn’t make the war a failure. He acknowledges two major Iranian capabilities surprised American planners: the resilience of its missile and drone arsenal and its ability to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz. But he rejects comparisons to American quagmires like Vietnam or Iraq. “The trajectory is the Americans continuously figure out ways to solve the problem.” His argument is that Iran created serious tactical problems, but Washington has gradually adapted while Tehran’s military capabilities and negotiating leverage have deteriorated. So Chamberlain’s test is simple: is Iran in a stronger position today than it was in April? He thinks the answer is no. Will Chamberlain
2:42

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Will Chamberlain: The U.S. underestimated Iran. That doesn’t make the war a failure. He acknowledges two major Iranian capabilities surprised American planners: the resilience of its missile and drone arsenal and its ability to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz. But he rejects comparisons to American quagmires like Vietnam or Iraq. “The trajectory is the Americans continuously figure out ways to solve the problem.” His argument is that Iran created serious tactical problems, but Washington has gradually adapted while Tehran’s military capabilities and negotiating leverage have deteriorated. So Chamberlain’s test is simple: is Iran in a stronger position today than it was in April? He thinks the answer is no. Will Chamberlain

Mario Nawfal

33,411 görüntüleme • 16 saat önce

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Whether this war should have been avoided is a trillion dollar question that's not as simple as it may seem given its consequences. Will Chamberlain broke down exactly what was on the table and why pre-war negotiations with Iran collapsed. "We can't let a country that says death to America have nuclear weapons, and we don't have to." Iran refused the deal. Trump acted. Will Chamberlain
19:37

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Whether this war should have been avoided is a trillion dollar question that's not as simple as it may seem given its consequences. Will Chamberlain broke down exactly what was on the table and why pre-war negotiations with Iran collapsed. "We can't let a country that says death to America have nuclear weapons, and we don't have to." Iran refused the deal. Trump acted. Will Chamberlain

Mario Nawfal

28,769 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 There is one question hanging over virtually every argument about the Iran war: If Tehran still has the ability to dramatically escalate, why hasn’t it? Will Chamberlain thinks the simplest answer is being overlooked. Maybe Iran can’t. The Iranian economy is under enormous pressure. Its oil exports have been squeezed. The Strait of Hormuz is seeing increasing traffic again. Yet Iran has not launched the kind of sustained missile campaign that could exhaust American interceptors, nor has it managed to seriously reverse the recovery in Gulf shipping. Will thinks Iranian behavior matters more than estimates of what weapons Tehran supposedly still possesses. “If they had actually had those capabilities, they’d use them because their current situation is untenable.” His theory is that the opening phase of the war damaged Iran more deeply than is generally understood. Its remaining missiles and drones may still be dangerous, but its stockpiles, production infrastructure and command structure could be sufficiently degraded that Tehran simply cannot employ them at the scale many analysts assume. That would explain something otherwise difficult to reconcile. Iran has every reason to impose more pain on Washington, yet repeatedly stops short of doing so. And Will gives himself a clear test. If Iran suddenly reverses the trend in Hormuz and begins making a meaningful dent in Gulf shipping again, he says he would reassess. Until then, his argument is straightforward: Iran’s unused escalation ladder may not be a hidden reserve of strength. Some of those rungs may no longer exist. Will Chamberlain
37:10

🇺🇸🇮🇷 There is one question hanging over virtually every argument about the Iran war: If Tehran still has the ability to dramatically escalate, why hasn’t it? Will Chamberlain thinks the simplest answer is being overlooked. Maybe Iran can’t. The Iranian economy is under enormous pressure. Its oil exports have been squeezed. The Strait of Hormuz is seeing increasing traffic again. Yet Iran has not launched the kind of sustained missile campaign that could exhaust American interceptors, nor has it managed to seriously reverse the recovery in Gulf shipping. Will thinks Iranian behavior matters more than estimates of what weapons Tehran supposedly still possesses. “If they had actually had those capabilities, they’d use them because their current situation is untenable.” His theory is that the opening phase of the war damaged Iran more deeply than is generally understood. Its remaining missiles and drones may still be dangerous, but its stockpiles, production infrastructure and command structure could be sufficiently degraded that Tehran simply cannot employ them at the scale many analysts assume. That would explain something otherwise difficult to reconcile. Iran has every reason to impose more pain on Washington, yet repeatedly stops short of doing so. And Will gives himself a clear test. If Iran suddenly reverses the trend in Hormuz and begins making a meaningful dent in Gulf shipping again, he says he would reassess. Until then, his argument is straightforward: Iran’s unused escalation ladder may not be a hidden reserve of strength. Some of those rungs may no longer exist. Will Chamberlain

Mario Nawfal

283,015 görüntüleme • 16 saat önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The U.S. interceptor shortage is widely seen as one of Washington’s biggest vulnerabilities in the Iran war. Will Chamberlain asks the obvious counter-question. If Iran can exhaust America’s remaining interceptors with a few more major ballistic-missile attacks, why hasn’t it? His explanation is that analysts may be looking at only one side of the depletion race. “The Occam’s Razor explanation for Iranian conduct is that their own missiles are much more depleted than we seem to think.” That would potentially explain both the absence of repeated attacks on the scale of the Jordan strike and the relatively limited attacks on US naval forces. Everyone is counting American interceptors. Chamberlain thinks we should be counting Iranian missiles too. Will Chamberlain
3:18

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The U.S. interceptor shortage is widely seen as one of Washington’s biggest vulnerabilities in the Iran war. Will Chamberlain asks the obvious counter-question. If Iran can exhaust America’s remaining interceptors with a few more major ballistic-missile attacks, why hasn’t it? His explanation is that analysts may be looking at only one side of the depletion race. “The Occam’s Razor explanation for Iranian conduct is that their own missiles are much more depleted than we seem to think.” That would potentially explain both the absence of repeated attacks on the scale of the Jordan strike and the relatively limited attacks on US naval forces. Everyone is counting American interceptors. Chamberlain thinks we should be counting Iranian missiles too. Will Chamberlain

Mario Nawfal

43,227 görüntüleme • 16 saat önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Joe Kent told Alex Jones and Will Chamberlain the U.S. should leave the Gulf and call the Iran war won. He points out senior targets are gone, U.S. bases are magnets, and keeping a naval squeeze risks a missile on a ship. Pull troops, keep sanctions, and tie Tehran’s oil money to keeping Hormuz open. Chamberlain’s fear is the reverse of that, means Iran keeping the choke point. Kent wants out with sanctions as leverage, but Chamberlain wants to stay and squeeze. Both are betting Iran sees the same map. Source: Brandon Straka #WalkAway Joe Kent Alex Jones / Writer: Lucas
4:32

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Joe Kent told Alex Jones and Will Chamberlain the U.S. should leave the Gulf and call the Iran war won. He points out senior targets are gone, U.S. bases are magnets, and keeping a naval squeeze risks a missile on a ship. Pull troops, keep sanctions, and tie Tehran’s oil money to keeping Hormuz open. Chamberlain’s fear is the reverse of that, means Iran keeping the choke point. Kent wants out with sanctions as leverage, but Chamberlain wants to stay and squeeze. Both are betting Iran sees the same map. Source: Brandon Straka #WalkAway Joe Kent Alex Jones / Writer: Lucas

Mario Nawfal

199,833 görüntüleme • 28 gün önce

Told BBC that some voices in Iran fear that Trump just wants a deal to pacify the markets ahead of the midterms, but that he will restart the war after November. I am unconvinced. If Trump had a military option, he would use it now to WIN the war and use that win for the midterms. But the bottom line is: He doesn't have a winning military option with Iran.
5:58

Told BBC that some voices in Iran fear that Trump just wants a deal to pacify the markets ahead of the midterms, but that he will restart the war after November. I am unconvinced. If Trump had a military option, he would use it now to WIN the war and use that win for the midterms. But the bottom line is: He doesn't have a winning military option with Iran.

Trita Parsi

34,123 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

🚨🇮🇱 🇮🇷 ISRAEL SAYS IT STRUCK BEFORE IRAN BECAME UNSTOPPABLE Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani says Iran was racing to expand its missile arsenal while burying nuclear facilities so deep “no weapons in the world could reach it.” He says Israel chose war now rather than face an Iran that could no longer be militarily stopped. @LTC_Shoshani
2:53

🚨🇮🇱 🇮🇷 ISRAEL SAYS IT STRUCK BEFORE IRAN BECAME UNSTOPPABLE Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani says Iran was racing to expand its missile arsenal while burying nuclear facilities so deep “no weapons in the world could reach it.” He says Israel chose war now rather than face an Iran that could no longer be militarily stopped. @LTC_Shoshani

Mario Nawfal

174,553 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

VP Vance says he will not call the U.S.-Iran war a war and cannot give a timeline of when the conflict will be over: "I think the reality is, I don't know the answer to that question. You'd have to ask the Iranians."
2:10

VP Vance says he will not call the U.S.-Iran war a war and cannot give a timeline of when the conflict will be over: "I think the reality is, I don't know the answer to that question. You'd have to ask the Iranians."

CSPAN

32,825 görüntüleme • 29 gün önce

President Trump says Iran is “the bully no more,” defending U.S. military action against Tehran and reiterating that he will not allow the country to obtain a nuclear weapon. “I will never allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon,” Trump says in his address to the U.N. General Assembly, adding that he urged Iran to negotiate, “but they refused. They absolutely refused. That was a big mistake.”
3:00

President Trump says Iran is “the bully no more,” defending U.S. military action against Tehran and reiterating that he will not allow the country to obtain a nuclear weapon. “I will never allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon,” Trump says in his address to the U.N. General Assembly, adding that he urged Iran to negotiate, “but they refused. They absolutely refused. That was a big mistake.”

CBS News

55,044 görüntüleme • 10 gün önce

BREAKING: 🇺🇸 Director of the U.S. National Counterterrorism Center Joe Kent has stepped down due to the war with Iran He says he cannot in good conscience support the war in Iran. “I cannot in good conscience support the ongoing war in Iran,” he said on X. “Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation, and it is clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby.”
1:22

BREAKING: 🇺🇸 Director of the U.S. National Counterterrorism Center Joe Kent has stepped down due to the war with Iran He says he cannot in good conscience support the war in Iran. “I cannot in good conscience support the ongoing war in Iran,” he said on X. “Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation, and it is clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby.”

Megatron

49,742 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

🚨🇮🇷🇺🇸 COULD IRAN BOG DOWN THE U.S.? Geopolitical analyst Paul Warburg says it is not impossible that the U.S. could get dragged into a long war with Iran. But he argues the U.S. air campaign has been far more effective than Russia’s early offensive in Ukraine.
3:44

🚨🇮🇷🇺🇸 COULD IRAN BOG DOWN THE U.S.? Geopolitical analyst Paul Warburg says it is not impossible that the U.S. could get dragged into a long war with Iran. But he argues the U.S. air campaign has been far more effective than Russia’s early offensive in Ukraine.

Mario Nawfal

59,058 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

JUST IN: 🇷🇺🇮🇷 Russia's Foreign Minister Lavrov says not just Iran but now many countries will start to develop nuclear weapons: This war that they have now unleashed against Iran, it, firstly, can stimulate movement in favor of creating nuclear weapons, and not only in Iran. Such a movement will immediately appear in the countries—Arab countries that neighbor the Islamic Republic of Iran. Therefore, paradoxically, an announced noble goal to start a war so that there is no proliferation of nuclear weapons can stimulate completely opposite trends."
1:04

JUST IN: 🇷🇺🇮🇷 Russia's Foreign Minister Lavrov says not just Iran but now many countries will start to develop nuclear weapons: This war that they have now unleashed against Iran, it, firstly, can stimulate movement in favor of creating nuclear weapons, and not only in Iran. Such a movement will immediately appear in the countries—Arab countries that neighbor the Islamic Republic of Iran. Therefore, paradoxically, an announced noble goal to start a war so that there is no proliferation of nuclear weapons can stimulate completely opposite trends."

Megatron

599,401 görüntüleme • 7 ay önce

Trump's Fmr. Lawyer Robert Barnes says Trump thinks he's escalating to make Iran capitulate, but in reality, Tehran has learned how to play him. That is what makes this moment so dangerous. Trump appears to believe the war can still be ended quickly if he just applies a little more pressure and moves further up the escalation ladder. Then wait for Iran to surrender, but Robert says Iran is never going to give him that. For Trump, this is a war he wants to finish on favorable terms; for Iran, it's existential. That means Washington and Tehran are not operating with the same tolerance for pain, the same timeline, or the same definition of victory. And Tehran now understands the man across the table better than he understands himself. Iran has watched Trump repeatedly convince himself that another strike will finally produce the submission the previous strikes failed to achieve. Then, when the opposite happens, he becomes frustrated and escalates again. Iran appears to be exploiting that weakness with a disciplined tit-for-tat strategy rather than random escalation or total war. Each move raises the cost without immediately giving Trump the clean pretext he might want for unlimited escalation. Robert thinks Iran is studying his psychology and asking one question before every major action: Will this provoke him too early, or will it punish and humiliate him at exactly the right moment? That distinction is crucial because humiliation may be Trump’s greatest vulnerability. Robert Barnes
54:53

Trump's Fmr. Lawyer Robert Barnes says Trump thinks he's escalating to make Iran capitulate, but in reality, Tehran has learned how to play him. That is what makes this moment so dangerous. Trump appears to believe the war can still be ended quickly if he just applies a little more pressure and moves further up the escalation ladder. Then wait for Iran to surrender, but Robert says Iran is never going to give him that. For Trump, this is a war he wants to finish on favorable terms; for Iran, it's existential. That means Washington and Tehran are not operating with the same tolerance for pain, the same timeline, or the same definition of victory. And Tehran now understands the man across the table better than he understands himself. Iran has watched Trump repeatedly convince himself that another strike will finally produce the submission the previous strikes failed to achieve. Then, when the opposite happens, he becomes frustrated and escalates again. Iran appears to be exploiting that weakness with a disciplined tit-for-tat strategy rather than random escalation or total war. Each move raises the cost without immediately giving Trump the clean pretext he might want for unlimited escalation. Robert thinks Iran is studying his psychology and asking one question before every major action: Will this provoke him too early, or will it punish and humiliate him at exactly the right moment? That distinction is crucial because humiliation may be Trump’s greatest vulnerability. Robert Barnes

Mario Nawfal

374,241 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 U.S. signals that an Iran deal is close, but is it? The final details are allegedly being worked out. U.S. forces will remain in the region for 30 days to strike Iran if it violates the deal, while Iran gets oil sanctions waivers and billions in frozen funds. -> Iran denies the full toll-free opening of the Strait of Hormuz, as stated by the Trump Administration. Will there be a deal? Am I wrong in my assessment that U.S.-Iran tensions will remain in an Iran-like situation for a longer time?
2:06

🇺🇸🇮🇷 U.S. signals that an Iran deal is close, but is it? The final details are allegedly being worked out. U.S. forces will remain in the region for 30 days to strike Iran if it violates the deal, while Iran gets oil sanctions waivers and billions in frozen funds. -> Iran denies the full toll-free opening of the Strait of Hormuz, as stated by the Trump Administration. Will there be a deal? Am I wrong in my assessment that U.S.-Iran tensions will remain in an Iran-like situation for a longer time?

Lord Bebo

12,162 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

🇮🇷 IRAN SAYS THE WAR COMES FIRST Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baqaei says the current focus of negotiations is ending the war, not the details of the nuclear issue. In other words, Tehran is trying to separate the war from the nuclear file. He also dismissed threats and pressure as “images and assumptions” from the other side, saying Iran is continuing its work “on the ground.” Translation: Iran wants the fighting stopped first, while keeping the nuclear question for later. That is not a detail. That is the whole game.
1:18

🇮🇷 IRAN SAYS THE WAR COMES FIRST Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baqaei says the current focus of negotiations is ending the war, not the details of the nuclear issue. In other words, Tehran is trying to separate the war from the nuclear file. He also dismissed threats and pressure as “images and assumptions” from the other side, saying Iran is continuing its work “on the ground.” Translation: Iran wants the fighting stopped first, while keeping the nuclear question for later. That is not a detail. That is the whole game.

Mossad Commentary

46,628 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

Iran FM Spox in response to claim that Saudi Arabia is preventing the US from attacking Iran: It is a positive thing that all countries in the region recognize that they will be affected by the future situation in the region. The war of the United States against Iran is a war against the entire region. Over the past 5 months, we have witnessed that the presence of the United States in the region has increased insecurity and instability. It is natural for countries to try to prevent the escalation of insecurity, but experience has shown that nothing deters the enemy except the power and deterrent capability of Iran.
1:37

Iran FM Spox in response to claim that Saudi Arabia is preventing the US from attacking Iran: It is a positive thing that all countries in the region recognize that they will be affected by the future situation in the region. The war of the United States against Iran is a war against the entire region. Over the past 5 months, we have witnessed that the presence of the United States in the region has increased insecurity and instability. It is natural for countries to try to prevent the escalation of insecurity, but experience has shown that nothing deters the enemy except the power and deterrent capability of Iran.

Iran's Today

11,612 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump says the U.S is going to “hit Iran hard,” while Tehran is warning that from now on, every American attack will be met with a response “dozens of times greater.” That's an extremely dangerous change in the rules of this war. The latest U.S strike was deliberately limited: American forces hit rocket launchers on Larak Island that CENTCOM says were preparing to deploy sea mines into the Strait of Hormuz. Iran didn't respond proportionally; it launched a much larger barrage of missiles and drones toward U.S positions in the region. And that's the part that matters. Earlier in the war, Iran largely calibrated its responses because it still believed there was a deal to be made with Washington. That calculation appears to be disappearing, because Tehran believes America no longer possesses the escalation dominance it had at the beginning of the war. And Iran is now willing to prove it by deliberately responding harder than it gets hit, meaning Trump now faces a brutal dilemma. If he doesn't respond after publicly promising to “hit them hard,” Tehran can portray it as proof that American threats have lost their force. But if he does hit Iran hard, Tehran is explicitly threatening to escalate even more, and warning that no target in the region is beyond its reach. The most dangerous assumption Trump could make now is that the U.S still gets to decide where the escalation ends. Iran's telling him it has a say in that. Brandon Weichert
56:52

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump says the U.S is going to “hit Iran hard,” while Tehran is warning that from now on, every American attack will be met with a response “dozens of times greater.” That's an extremely dangerous change in the rules of this war. The latest U.S strike was deliberately limited: American forces hit rocket launchers on Larak Island that CENTCOM says were preparing to deploy sea mines into the Strait of Hormuz. Iran didn't respond proportionally; it launched a much larger barrage of missiles and drones toward U.S positions in the region. And that's the part that matters. Earlier in the war, Iran largely calibrated its responses because it still believed there was a deal to be made with Washington. That calculation appears to be disappearing, because Tehran believes America no longer possesses the escalation dominance it had at the beginning of the war. And Iran is now willing to prove it by deliberately responding harder than it gets hit, meaning Trump now faces a brutal dilemma. If he doesn't respond after publicly promising to “hit them hard,” Tehran can portray it as proof that American threats have lost their force. But if he does hit Iran hard, Tehran is explicitly threatening to escalate even more, and warning that no target in the region is beyond its reach. The most dangerous assumption Trump could make now is that the U.S still gets to decide where the escalation ends. Iran's telling him it has a say in that. Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

339,651 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Dr. Suzanne Maloney says this war was never about strategy; it was about Trump's legacy, and that gives Iran enormous leverage. "He can't have a war that ends with Iran in control of the strait and with some capacity of highly enriched uranium that could lead them to a quick breakout to nuclear weapons capability." If Iran won't give Trump his season finale, nobody wins. Suzanne Maloney
6:13

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Dr. Suzanne Maloney says this war was never about strategy; it was about Trump's legacy, and that gives Iran enormous leverage. "He can't have a war that ends with Iran in control of the strait and with some capacity of highly enriched uranium that could lead them to a quick breakout to nuclear weapons capability." If Iran won't give Trump his season finale, nobody wins. Suzanne Maloney

Mario Nawfal

53,686 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce

Contrary to the planted story in the media that Vance was opposed to the War in Iran— here is the DAY he received the VP nomination calling for the US to bomb Iran. Don’t let him wiggle his way out of this. He owns this war and should not be the nominee.
0:47

Contrary to the planted story in the media that Vance was opposed to the War in Iran— here is the DAY he received the VP nomination calling for the US to bomb Iran. Don’t let him wiggle his way out of this. He owns this war and should not be the nominee.

Nicholas J. Fuentes

1,720,716 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

‼️‼️🇺🇸🇮🇷 U.S. Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, warned Iran. 📌 “The Pentagon is 'fully prepared' to act if Tehran refuses to negotiate nuclear talks with the U.S.” 📌 “President Trump's position was clear from the start, as was the operation 'Midnight Hammer': Iran will not have the capability to develop nuclear weapons.” 📌 “They can either negotiate in this direction, or we have other options. That is exactly why the Department of War exists.” 📌 “Military action is not the desired path, but we are ready for anything. The President does not want to go this route, nor do I, but it is our duty to be prepared, and of course, we are.”
0:31

‼️‼️🇺🇸🇮🇷 U.S. Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, warned Iran. 📌 “The Pentagon is 'fully prepared' to act if Tehran refuses to negotiate nuclear talks with the U.S.” 📌 “President Trump's position was clear from the start, as was the operation 'Midnight Hammer': Iran will not have the capability to develop nuclear weapons.” 📌 “They can either negotiate in this direction, or we have other options. That is exactly why the Department of War exists.” 📌 “Military action is not the desired path, but we are ready for anything. The President does not want to go this route, nor do I, but it is our duty to be prepared, and of course, we are.”

Visioner

20,263 görüntüleme • 8 ay önce