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India’s Afghan Gambit A Security Play Targeting Pakistan India has historically viewed Afghanistan through a security lens rather than a political or economic one, using it as a means to exert sub-conventional pressure on Pakistan, a strategy articulated by Indian NSA Ajit Doval. The recent visit of Afghanistan’s foreign...

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If a prominent Indian public figure such as Major Samar Toor were targeted inside/out of India by a foreign intelligence service like Pakistan’s ISI, the consequences would likely be extremely serious at multiple levels — diplomatic, intelligence, military, legal, and political. Historically, India treats attacks on high-profile defence-linked individuals very differently from ordinary criminal incidents, especially when there is evidence of foreign-state involvement. Possible Indian responses could include: Expansive counter-intelligence operations by agencies such as the Research and Analysis Wing, Intelligence Bureau, and the National Investigation Agency. Diplomatic escalation against Inter-Services Intelligence and the Pakistani state through international forums. Increased security crackdowns on suspected espionage or proxy networks operating in India. Covert retaliation or disruption operations targeting hostile networks believed responsible. Greater security protection for defence commentators, veterans, strategic technologists, and drone-sector innovators. India’s response doctrine over the past decade has increasingly emphasized: deterrence, attribution, cross-border accountability, and asymmetric response capability. Examples often cited in public discourse include the Indian responses after: 2016 Uri attack 2019 Pulwama attack In both cases, India demonstrated willingness to respond beyond purely diplomatic measures. From a strategic perspective, individuals who: influence public opinion, contribute to defence modernization, support indigenous drone ecosystems, or strengthen military-civilian strategic awareness are often viewed as “national strategic voices.” Any credible threat against such individuals would likely trigger enhanced surveillance, protection, and intelligence monitoring.

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Afghanistan Will Lose Its Current Geography in Emerging Regional Order,” Warns SSASI Director Maria Sultan Maria Sultan, Director of the South Asian Strategic Stability Institute (SSASI), has said that Afghanistan will lose its present geographical and political shape in the evolving regional environment. According to Sultan, Afghanistan’s existing state structure is unlikely to survive in its current form, arguing that the country lacks a unified national identity and centralized governance. She stated that while Afghanistan is home to Tajiks, Uzbeks, and Pashtuns, these groups do not necessarily identify under a single ‘Afghan national’ framework. Sultan stressed that understanding the current realities of Afghanistan requires a fundamental shift in perspective, noting that the country no longer functions as a unitary state. She described Afghanistan as a loose collection of border regions whose economic and strategic lifelines are increasingly connected to neighboring countries rather than Kabul. “The centrifugal tendencies within Afghanistan are deeply institutionalized,” she said, adding that provinces bordering Iran, Pakistan, and Central Asian states maintain stronger trade, social, and political ties with neighboring countries than with the central government. Referring to the recent border deal between tribal elders in Nuristan and Kunar and Pakistan, the perception has emerged that the Taliban no longer exercises effective authority over Afghanistan’s border regions. #aamajnews

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#Pakistan –Afghanistan Trade Suspension: A Strategic Move Strengthening Pakistan’s Security and Economic Interests Pakistan’s decision to close the Afghan border on 11 October 2025 is not a reactionary measure, but a deliberate and well-considered step aimed at reforming the entire trade and transit system. Pakistan has shut all routes that had become primary channels for smuggling, narcotics, illegal weapons, and terrorism. This trade suspension is a landmark decision with far-reaching implications for national security, economic stability, and the enforcement of state authority. Impact on Afghanistan Afghanistan is bearing the brunt of this closure—economically, socially, and institutionally. Nearly 70–80% of Afghanistan’s trade depends on Pakistan’s roads and ports. Goods reach Afghanistan from Karachi within 3–4 days, whereas via Iran they take 6–8 days, and through Central Asian corridors they may take over 30 days. For years, goods under Afghan Transit Trade were illegally re-entering Pakistan through smuggling, causing massive financial losses. Pakistan has been losing 3.4 trillion PKR annually due to smuggling, while nearly 1 trillion PKR worth of goods bounced back through Afghan Transit Trade, compounding the damage. The closure of Torkham alone inflicted $45 million losses on Afghanistan within one month, and in just a few weeks, Afghanistan’s cumulative losses exceeded $200 million. Over 5,000 trucks were stranded, Afghan agricultural produce spoiled, and transport costs via Iran rose 50–60%, with an additional $2,500 per container. Even the medical supply chain suffered, as over 50% of Afghanistan’s medicines transit through Pakistan. Alternative routes are slow, expensive, and insecure, and Afghanistan’s fragile economy cannot sustain these burdens. As smuggling stopped, more than 200,000 families tied to smuggling networks, backflow routes, and under-invoicing lost their source of income. Impact on Pakistan The trade suspension has almost no effect on the daily life of an average Pakistani, because the items entering Pakistan through smuggling were luxury goods, not essential commodities. Pakistan, on the other hand, has robust alternatives, including CPEC routes and direct land connectivity with China, ensuring continuity of legitimate trade. By blocking illicit routes, Pakistan is dismantling smuggling networks, curbing arms and narcotics trafficking, and reducing the movement of terror operatives. Regional Rebalancing & Long-Term Gains The closure will push Afghanistan’s trade—previously concentrated in eastern provinces like Paktia—toward alternative corridors such as Iran and Central Asia, promoting diversification and economic inclusivity within Afghanistan. In the long term—5 to 10 years—Pakistan will benefit from a cleaner, regulated, and more secure regional trade architecture. The Road Ahead The Afghan Taliban must now choose: Will they continue sheltering terrorists, or join Pakistan in a cooperative path toward regional stability and shared economic progress? Pakistan’s strategy is clear: secure borders, regulated trade, and zero tolerance for smuggling and terrorism—a policy that ultimately strengthens both states’ futures.

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