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Inflation free-fall confirmed. Based on monthly data inflation 3.4% Qtrly data 4.1%. Last quarter annualised for fun, 2.5%. Nov 2023 rate hike looks sillier today than it did then. Start date for RBA cuts tricky as always. Don't rule out March, could be May My Two Minute Take

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Stephen Koukoulas

65,517 subscribers

52,402 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren •via X (Twitter)

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10 Kommentare

Profilbild von Kit Lowe
Kit Lowevor 2 Jahren

Off monthly CPI real rates are +0.95% !

Profilbild von dan@marketcycology
dan@marketcycologyvor 2 Jahren

Hahahaha @TheKouk starting to wind back his timing. March is now May. Then May will become September. Comical stuff.

Profilbild von Reserve Bank of Property Bears
Reserve Bank of Property Bearsvor 2 Jahren

Property bears right now

Profilbild von Jimmmmy
Jimmmmyvor 2 Jahren

hahaha where’s solo dio?? he should be delighted. Probably cleaning his bedroom before he loses his pocket money. Inflation falling back to target, rate cuts on the horizon. What’s not to like 😎

Profilbild von Lord Cobblesworth
Lord Cobblesworthvor 2 Jahren

You must have been frothing to get this 2 minute take out...😂 And I'm free I'm free fallin' Yeah, I'm free Free fallin' Free fallin', now I'm free fallin', now I'm Free fallin', now I'm free fallin', now I'm

Profilbild von Jon Klaric
Jon Klaricvor 2 Jahren

If the annualized inflation rate is 2.5%, that would indicate pause not rate cuts...I don't see a cut in H1. Maybe Q3/4 at the earliest.

Profilbild von David Bridges
David Bridgesvor 2 Jahren

RBA won't do March. It'd be an admission of silliness in Nov.

Profilbild von Tyler Green
Tyler Greenvor 2 Jahren

Rate cuts will send the #btc price into the stratosphere.

Profilbild von Powell's Other Glasses (Ausnotes) 🌸
Powell's Other Glasses (Ausnotes) 🌸vor 2 Jahren

A cut later in the year.

Profilbild von Joel
Joelvor 2 Jahren

You must have missed this line in your bias and constant incorrect commentary ‘Annual inflation for Non-tradables remains elevated at 5.4 per cent due to price rises for new dwellings, rents, insurance and electricity’ But don’t let the truth get in the way of the ponzi 😂

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Inflation free-fall confirmed. Annual inflation 5.6% in year to May, down a whopping 2.8ppts since Dec 2022. In 1st 5 months of 2023, inflation is 1.2%, 0.24% per month; an annualised rate under 3%. Target hit. RBA has made a horrible error with recent hikes. My Two Minute Take
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Inflation free-fall confirmed. Annual inflation 5.6% in year to May, down a whopping 2.8ppts since Dec 2022. In 1st 5 months of 2023, inflation is 1.2%, 0.24% per month; an annualised rate under 3%. Target hit. RBA has made a horrible error with recent hikes. My Two Minute Take

Stephen Koukoulas

202,259 Aufrufe • vor 3 Jahren

Inflation in free fall: from 8.4% to 4.9% in 10 months. Inflation -0.3% in October and is set to fall to 3% by year end, especially as petrol prices feed into the data and some large increases in late 2022 drop out of the run rate. RBA looking very, very silly My Two Minute Take
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Inflation in free fall: from 8.4% to 4.9% in 10 months. Inflation -0.3% in October and is set to fall to 3% by year end, especially as petrol prices feed into the data and some large increases in late 2022 drop out of the run rate. RBA looking very, very silly My Two Minute Take

Stephen Koukoulas

122,564 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren

Russians complain about growing prices for groceries and commonly used stuff. Inflation in Russia continues its growth as Putin throws more and more money into the war. ◾️ In November, the official (monthly) inflation in Russia amounted to 1.5%, and in December, according to all forecasts, it should be more than 2%. If this trend continues, the official annual inflation alone will amount to 20-30%, Russian economist Shiryaev notes. ◾️ At the same time, real consumer inflation (i.e., the one customers see in stores) may be even higher. According to Russia's ROMIR Human Institute, which published data on consumer inflation until September 2024, it is three times higher than official inflation. ◾️High inflation is related to the Russian Central Bank's actions. "The Central Bank has already stopped raising the key rate. This is pushing up inflation even more because inflation expectations [i.e., fear of rising prices] have now skyrocketed," Shiryaev says. "Therefore, growth of 75% for everything is a working forecast. Not pessimistic or optimistic, but working," Shiryaev insists.
1:00

Russians complain about growing prices for groceries and commonly used stuff. Inflation in Russia continues its growth as Putin throws more and more money into the war. ◾️ In November, the official (monthly) inflation in Russia amounted to 1.5%, and in December, according to all forecasts, it should be more than 2%. If this trend continues, the official annual inflation alone will amount to 20-30%, Russian economist Shiryaev notes. ◾️ At the same time, real consumer inflation (i.e., the one customers see in stores) may be even higher. According to Russia's ROMIR Human Institute, which published data on consumer inflation until September 2024, it is three times higher than official inflation. ◾️High inflation is related to the Russian Central Bank's actions. "The Central Bank has already stopped raising the key rate. This is pushing up inflation even more because inflation expectations [i.e., fear of rising prices] have now skyrocketed," Shiryaev says. "Therefore, growth of 75% for everything is a working forecast. Not pessimistic or optimistic, but working," Shiryaev insists.

Anton Gerashchenko

463,752 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

Powell has just delivered his farewell speech at Harvard. He has officially killed the market’s 2026 rate-cut fantasy for good. Take one minute to understand the brutal truth behind this address.👇 1. The death spiral of debt is out in the open He unusually acknowledged the elephant in the room: U.S. debt is growing “far faster” than the economy. He warned the consequences would be catastrophic if no action is taken. (Spoiler: politicians have no real solution for it.) 2. Rate cuts are dead; hikes are back on the table Middle East tensions have kept oil prices firmly elevated. Powell made it crystal clear: the 2% inflation target is non-negotiable. Forget about the Fed bailing out the market. If data worsens, investors must now brace for the terrifying prospect of another 25-basis-point rate hike. 3. Shattering the quiet optimism of the 2026 graduating class AI will create jobs in the long run, but for graduates entering the workforce now, this year is without question a job-hunting season from hell.
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Powell has just delivered his farewell speech at Harvard. He has officially killed the market’s 2026 rate-cut fantasy for good. Take one minute to understand the brutal truth behind this address.👇 1. The death spiral of debt is out in the open He unusually acknowledged the elephant in the room: U.S. debt is growing “far faster” than the economy. He warned the consequences would be catastrophic if no action is taken. (Spoiler: politicians have no real solution for it.) 2. Rate cuts are dead; hikes are back on the table Middle East tensions have kept oil prices firmly elevated. Powell made it crystal clear: the 2% inflation target is non-negotiable. Forget about the Fed bailing out the market. If data worsens, investors must now brace for the terrifying prospect of another 25-basis-point rate hike. 3. Shattering the quiet optimism of the 2026 graduating class AI will create jobs in the long run, but for graduates entering the workforce now, this year is without question a job-hunting season from hell.

Satori 🎴 💀

61,001 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

Roger Altman on why people don’t feel the economy is strong even though so many of the key data points indicate that it is. (I realize this is stating the obvious for some!) “I’ve never seen anything like this where the economic data right now is about as good as it gets. I mean, you’ve got, as we just said, resilient growth. Labor markets are healthy. 4.1% unemployment rate, jobs still being created. Private investments strong, financial markets strong, and inflation cooling very obviously, sharply cooling. And yet, the voter attitudes toward the economy are quite negative. It traces back to the first year after COVID erupted, when for a year, year and a half, prices rose a lot—primarily on account of the pandemic and supply chain issues. Even though inflation, as you said, has cooled almost back to the Fed’s long-term 2% target, people see every day in the grocery store or elsewhere that the price of milk or bacon or eggs, or whatever it may be, is quite a bit higher than it was four years ago, and they don’t like it.”
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Roger Altman on why people don’t feel the economy is strong even though so many of the key data points indicate that it is. (I realize this is stating the obvious for some!) “I’ve never seen anything like this where the economic data right now is about as good as it gets. I mean, you’ve got, as we just said, resilient growth. Labor markets are healthy. 4.1% unemployment rate, jobs still being created. Private investments strong, financial markets strong, and inflation cooling very obviously, sharply cooling. And yet, the voter attitudes toward the economy are quite negative. It traces back to the first year after COVID erupted, when for a year, year and a half, prices rose a lot—primarily on account of the pandemic and supply chain issues. Even though inflation, as you said, has cooled almost back to the Fed’s long-term 2% target, people see every day in the grocery store or elsewhere that the price of milk or bacon or eggs, or whatever it may be, is quite a bit higher than it was four years ago, and they don’t like it.”

Yashar Ali 🐘

131,983 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

BREAKING: 10 days into the job, Trump is already throwing his new Fed Chair under the bus. The market priced his confirmation as a guaranteed rate cut. Hours after the swearing-in, Trump was on Truth Social demanding cuts that aren't coming. Here's why the entire 2026 rate cut thesis just broke: For most of 2026, Wall Street traded on one assumption. Trump replaces Powell with his own guy. The Fed delivers the cuts the President has been demanding for two years, and risk assets rip. Every long-duration asset on the board priced it in. Warsh's Senate confirmation passed 54-45 in May. The closest Fed Chair vote in modern history. The political fight was taken as proof Warsh would be loyal to the man who picked him. Then everyone read his actual Senate testimony: Warsh has been a public critic of the Fed's bloated balance sheet for over a decade. His pitch was what he called "regime change" at the Fed. He's philosophically closer to Paul Volcker than to a yes-man. Volcker pushed rates above 19% in 1981 to break inflation. Wall Street hated him at the time. History celebrates him today. That's the model Warsh has been studying for years. Not the easing playbook Trump wants. Then the macro data turned on him before he even took office. The May 28th PCE reading was the highest in nearly three years. WTI crude jumped almost 6% on June 1st to $92.54 a barrel. Iran had just suspended indirect talks with the US. Tariff costs from Trump's own February executive orders are still working through goods prices. Sticky inflation from policy decisions Trump made himself. Warsh walked into the worst possible setup. Hot inflation, an energy shock, and a President demanding the one move that would make inflation worse. Yesterday, June 2nd, Trump went back on Truth Social to attack Warsh for not cutting fast enough. 10 days into the job. From his own hand-picked Chair. This is where retail investors get trapped. The narrative all year was simple. Trump installs his guy. Cheap money returns. Buy everything that benefits. That trade required three things to be true at once. 1. Warsh has to be a puppet. 2. Inflation has to cooperate. 3. There has to be political room to cut. Right now, zero of those three are true. Markets have already priced out 2026 rate cuts entirely. A rate hike by year-end is now considered more likely than a cut. Retail positioning hasn't caught up. Most portfolios are still leaning long-duration tech and rate-sensitive assets that work in a cutting cycle and bleed in a holding cycle. Institutional positioning has caught up months ago. Berkshire sits on a record $397 billion in cash. Hedge funds rotated into commodities and short-duration. The S&P sits at all-time highs while the smart money is positioned for the cuts not arriving. A Fed Chair who believes in inflation credibility doesn't cut into rising prices regardless of who appointed him. The investors who win stopped trying to predict the next Fed move years ago. The market will reprice when it stops pretending otherwise. You can guess which week that happens. Or you can run a system that doesn't have to guess. Surmount automates your investments with rules-based strategies built on data, not political headlines...
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BREAKING: 10 days into the job, Trump is already throwing his new Fed Chair under the bus. The market priced his confirmation as a guaranteed rate cut. Hours after the swearing-in, Trump was on Truth Social demanding cuts that aren't coming. Here's why the entire 2026 rate cut thesis just broke: For most of 2026, Wall Street traded on one assumption. Trump replaces Powell with his own guy. The Fed delivers the cuts the President has been demanding for two years, and risk assets rip. Every long-duration asset on the board priced it in. Warsh's Senate confirmation passed 54-45 in May. The closest Fed Chair vote in modern history. The political fight was taken as proof Warsh would be loyal to the man who picked him. Then everyone read his actual Senate testimony: Warsh has been a public critic of the Fed's bloated balance sheet for over a decade. His pitch was what he called "regime change" at the Fed. He's philosophically closer to Paul Volcker than to a yes-man. Volcker pushed rates above 19% in 1981 to break inflation. Wall Street hated him at the time. History celebrates him today. That's the model Warsh has been studying for years. Not the easing playbook Trump wants. Then the macro data turned on him before he even took office. The May 28th PCE reading was the highest in nearly three years. WTI crude jumped almost 6% on June 1st to $92.54 a barrel. Iran had just suspended indirect talks with the US. Tariff costs from Trump's own February executive orders are still working through goods prices. Sticky inflation from policy decisions Trump made himself. Warsh walked into the worst possible setup. Hot inflation, an energy shock, and a President demanding the one move that would make inflation worse. Yesterday, June 2nd, Trump went back on Truth Social to attack Warsh for not cutting fast enough. 10 days into the job. From his own hand-picked Chair. This is where retail investors get trapped. The narrative all year was simple. Trump installs his guy. Cheap money returns. Buy everything that benefits. That trade required three things to be true at once. 1. Warsh has to be a puppet. 2. Inflation has to cooperate. 3. There has to be political room to cut. Right now, zero of those three are true. Markets have already priced out 2026 rate cuts entirely. A rate hike by year-end is now considered more likely than a cut. Retail positioning hasn't caught up. Most portfolios are still leaning long-duration tech and rate-sensitive assets that work in a cutting cycle and bleed in a holding cycle. Institutional positioning has caught up months ago. Berkshire sits on a record $397 billion in cash. Hedge funds rotated into commodities and short-duration. The S&P sits at all-time highs while the smart money is positioned for the cuts not arriving. A Fed Chair who believes in inflation credibility doesn't cut into rising prices regardless of who appointed him. The investors who win stopped trying to predict the next Fed move years ago. The market will reprice when it stops pretending otherwise. You can guess which week that happens. Or you can run a system that doesn't have to guess. Surmount automates your investments with rules-based strategies built on data, not political headlines...

Logan Weaver

39,785 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🚨 So, where is US inflation heading now? 🇺🇸 Markets called it “lower than expected”. But here in the Truflation community, we knew better. It was -exactly- what we expected. But how did we know? 📽️ This video breaks it down—clear as day—showing you how we track inflation and what we expect in the coming months. At Truflation, we process tens of millions of data points daily to update our real-time inflation indicator. Every single day, we: ✅ Ingest fresh data ✅ Categorize & validate it ✅ Upload it to the blockchain ✅ Deliver it directly to you This relentless approach allows us to detect inflation trends an average of 45 days before the BLS prints their numbers. But let’s clear up a common misconception: We are not trying to replicate the BLS absolute values. We have our own methodology to measure inflation 📝—one that we firmly believe reflects REAL inflation. However, because government decisions are based on outdated government data, when we predict BLS CPI prints, we adjust our model in a specific way… How do we predict BLS CPI so accurately? ⛔️We apply a penalty to our own data—yes, essentially, we simulate a scenario where our real-time insights don’t exist. We strip away our immediate access to fresh data and align our weightings with those of the BLS. The result? Our BLS CPI predictions have been extremely accurate—over the past 10 months, our forecasts have had an average deviation of just 0.02% (excluding January, when the BLS changed weightings). 🎯 And while we are happy to know that our community and premium subscribers use our leading indicator for everything from Bitcoin trades and US treasury bonds to FX markets, one thing still amazes us: 🇺🇸 The biggest economy in the world spends over a billion dollars on an institution (BLS) that uses an outdated methodology—just to base one of the world’s most critical decisions (monetary policy changes) on its lagging numbers. Meanwhile, a team of 18 people (myself included—the Truflation intern 🙂), working with less than 1% of that budget, is beating them by almost two months. Why? We can only speculate... But one thing is certain: 🔹 We will always keep exposing real inflation. 🔹 We will always keep spreading the TRUF. Thank you for your support. 🤝 And to those saying prices are only going up… 🚨 Yes, prices are still rising. Lower inflation does NOT mean lower prices. It simply means that prices are increasing at a slower rate. The damage of the past five years of compounded inflation is still being felt—your groceries, rent, and everyday expenses are still far more expensive than they were. And that’s exactly why tracking real-time inflation matters—so we know where we’re heading and no one lies to us. Truflation Team 🫡🇺🇸
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🚨 So, where is US inflation heading now? 🇺🇸 Markets called it “lower than expected”. But here in the Truflation community, we knew better. It was -exactly- what we expected. But how did we know? 📽️ This video breaks it down—clear as day—showing you how we track inflation and what we expect in the coming months. At Truflation, we process tens of millions of data points daily to update our real-time inflation indicator. Every single day, we: ✅ Ingest fresh data ✅ Categorize & validate it ✅ Upload it to the blockchain ✅ Deliver it directly to you This relentless approach allows us to detect inflation trends an average of 45 days before the BLS prints their numbers. But let’s clear up a common misconception: We are not trying to replicate the BLS absolute values. We have our own methodology to measure inflation 📝—one that we firmly believe reflects REAL inflation. However, because government decisions are based on outdated government data, when we predict BLS CPI prints, we adjust our model in a specific way… How do we predict BLS CPI so accurately? ⛔️We apply a penalty to our own data—yes, essentially, we simulate a scenario where our real-time insights don’t exist. We strip away our immediate access to fresh data and align our weightings with those of the BLS. The result? Our BLS CPI predictions have been extremely accurate—over the past 10 months, our forecasts have had an average deviation of just 0.02% (excluding January, when the BLS changed weightings). 🎯 And while we are happy to know that our community and premium subscribers use our leading indicator for everything from Bitcoin trades and US treasury bonds to FX markets, one thing still amazes us: 🇺🇸 The biggest economy in the world spends over a billion dollars on an institution (BLS) that uses an outdated methodology—just to base one of the world’s most critical decisions (monetary policy changes) on its lagging numbers. Meanwhile, a team of 18 people (myself included—the Truflation intern 🙂), working with less than 1% of that budget, is beating them by almost two months. Why? We can only speculate... But one thing is certain: 🔹 We will always keep exposing real inflation. 🔹 We will always keep spreading the TRUF. Thank you for your support. 🤝 And to those saying prices are only going up… 🚨 Yes, prices are still rising. Lower inflation does NOT mean lower prices. It simply means that prices are increasing at a slower rate. The damage of the past five years of compounded inflation is still being felt—your groceries, rent, and everyday expenses are still far more expensive than they were. And that’s exactly why tracking real-time inflation matters—so we know where we’re heading and no one lies to us. Truflation Team 🫡🇺🇸

Truflation

293,449 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

What If Warsh Cuts Rates Next Week? Markets are overwhelmingly expecting Kevin Warsh to keep rates unchanged at his first Fed meeting next week, with some traders even pricing in the possibility of higher rates later this year. But what if the consensus is wrong? In this Short video, Lawrence Lepard, "fix the money, fix the world" presents the contrarian case that Warsh could be far more dovish than investors expect. The argument starts with inflation. Warsh has suggested that traditional inflation measures may overstate current price pressures and that alternative metrics, such as Dallas Trimmed PCE, paint a much cooler picture. If inflation is closer to target than headline data suggests, the justification for maintaining restrictive policy becomes much weaker. Another key piece of the thesis is productivity. Warsh has repeatedly discussed the transformative impact of AI on economic output. If artificial intelligence drives a meaningful productivity boom, the economy could grow faster without generating the same inflationary pressures that normally accompany growth. That would give the Fed more room to lower rates without reigniting inflation. The discussion also highlights the possibility that recent inflation pressures are being driven by temporary factors, particularly energy prices and geopolitical tensions. If those pressures ease, inflation could fall naturally, strengthening the case for easier monetary policy. There is also a broader economic backdrop to consider. The administration has made economic growth, domestic manufacturing, and reindustrialization central priorities. Building factories, infrastructure, and supply chains requires capital, and high interest rates make those investments more difficult. Lower rates would provide the financial fuel needed to accelerate those goals. The most controversial part of the conversation is the suggestion that Warsh could deliver not just a rate cut, but potentially a larger-than-expected cut (50 bps) if he wants to quickly reset policy. While that remains a low-probability outcome, Lawrence Lepard, "fix the money, fix the world" argues that markets may be underestimating the possibility of a significant shift in direction. If that happens, stocks could respond very positively as lower rates improve liquidity, reduce financing costs, and support higher valuations. However, the bigger story may be in #bonds. Long-term Treasury investors could view aggressive easing as inflationary or fiscally irresponsible, pushing #yields sharply higher. In that scenario, equities celebrate the pivot while the bond market revolts. So, according to Lawrence Lepard, "fix the money, fix the world", Kevin Warsh may not follow the path investors currently expect. If he embraces alternative inflation measures, leans on the AI productivity story, and prioritizes growth, the market could be forced to rapidly reprice both interest-rate expectations and long-term bond yields. 🔽Get access to my notes with the key takeaways from this interview with Lawrence Lepard, "fix the money, fix the world" by visiting my Substack (link below) ⬇️
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What If Warsh Cuts Rates Next Week? Markets are overwhelmingly expecting Kevin Warsh to keep rates unchanged at his first Fed meeting next week, with some traders even pricing in the possibility of higher rates later this year. But what if the consensus is wrong? In this Short video, Lawrence Lepard, "fix the money, fix the world" presents the contrarian case that Warsh could be far more dovish than investors expect. The argument starts with inflation. Warsh has suggested that traditional inflation measures may overstate current price pressures and that alternative metrics, such as Dallas Trimmed PCE, paint a much cooler picture. If inflation is closer to target than headline data suggests, the justification for maintaining restrictive policy becomes much weaker. Another key piece of the thesis is productivity. Warsh has repeatedly discussed the transformative impact of AI on economic output. If artificial intelligence drives a meaningful productivity boom, the economy could grow faster without generating the same inflationary pressures that normally accompany growth. That would give the Fed more room to lower rates without reigniting inflation. The discussion also highlights the possibility that recent inflation pressures are being driven by temporary factors, particularly energy prices and geopolitical tensions. If those pressures ease, inflation could fall naturally, strengthening the case for easier monetary policy. There is also a broader economic backdrop to consider. The administration has made economic growth, domestic manufacturing, and reindustrialization central priorities. Building factories, infrastructure, and supply chains requires capital, and high interest rates make those investments more difficult. Lower rates would provide the financial fuel needed to accelerate those goals. The most controversial part of the conversation is the suggestion that Warsh could deliver not just a rate cut, but potentially a larger-than-expected cut (50 bps) if he wants to quickly reset policy. While that remains a low-probability outcome, Lawrence Lepard, "fix the money, fix the world" argues that markets may be underestimating the possibility of a significant shift in direction. If that happens, stocks could respond very positively as lower rates improve liquidity, reduce financing costs, and support higher valuations. However, the bigger story may be in #bonds. Long-term Treasury investors could view aggressive easing as inflationary or fiscally irresponsible, pushing #yields sharply higher. In that scenario, equities celebrate the pivot while the bond market revolts. So, according to Lawrence Lepard, "fix the money, fix the world", Kevin Warsh may not follow the path investors currently expect. If he embraces alternative inflation measures, leans on the AI productivity story, and prioritizes growth, the market could be forced to rapidly reprice both interest-rate expectations and long-term bond yields. 🔽Get access to my notes with the key takeaways from this interview with Lawrence Lepard, "fix the money, fix the world" by visiting my Substack (link below) ⬇️

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1:33

‘Greatly Exaggerated’: CNBC’s Rick Santelli Pours Cold Water On Narrative That Trump Tariffs Would Doom Economy | Harold Hutchison, Daily Caller News Foundation CNBC editor Rick Santelli said Tuesday that tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump apparently were not causing inflation to skyrocket following the release of data on consumer prices. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-over-year in June, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported, roughly in line with expectations. Santelli, on “Squawk Box,” said when food and energy were removed, inflation was actually slightly below expectations. “Inflation is going to ebb and flow. If we want to really isolate it in terms of what this administration is doing or Liberation Day, I would benchmark it to the beginning of the year, January and February reads,” Santelli said. “Being warmer gives you a lot of information that some of the policies have not been detrimental in boosting inflation. Now they’re up just a bit, but some of that could also be associated with better economic data. You know, the death of the labor market has been greatly exaggerated based on recent data and I think that all in all, the inflation numbers, they’re pretty respectable here.” Trump announced reciprocal tariffs to address import duties and “horrendous imbalances” in trade with other countries during an April 2 Rose Garden event, then announcing a 90-day pause via an April 9 post on Truth Social. The Trump administration finalized a trade deal with China on June 26, which included a 55% tariff on Chinese products while reducing Chinese tariffs on American products to 10%. Several corporate outlets predicted that the Trump tariffs would cause inflation to climb, with ABC predicting they “would ratchet up the global trade war” on March 26 while the Guardian said on April 22 Trump’s action “means rising prices.” In February, NewsNation host Chris Cuomo claimed that tariffs boosting the economy “never happens,” adding that the tariffs would increase inflation. A CNBC column in May also predicted tariffs could cause prices to spike despite good numbers for April. Read more:

Owen Gregorian

33,652 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

GoogleDeepmind Chief AGI Scientist Shane Legg: AGI by 2028 He’s had the same timelines for 12 years - insane! He gives a log-normal distribution with a mode of 2025. Importantly, while he puts a 50% chance of AGI by 2028, that means there is a 30% chance of AGI in the next three years. How have his timelines been so consistent since 2011? SHANE LEGG: I first formed those beliefs around 2001 after reading Ray Kurzweil's The Age of Spiritual Machines. There were two really important points in his book that I came to believe as true: 1) One is that computational power would grow exponentially for at least a few decades. And that the quantity of data in the world would grow exponentially for a few decades. And when you have exponentially increasing quantities of computation and data, then the value of highly scalable algorithms gets higher and higher. There's a lot of incentive to make a more scalable algorithm to harness all this computing data. So I thought it would be very likely that we'll start to discover scalable algorithms to do this. And then there's a positive feedback between all these things, because if your algorithm gets better at harnessing computing data, then the value of the data and the compute goes up because it can be more effectively used. And that drives more investment in these areas. If your compute performance goes up, then the value of the data goes up because you can utilize more data. So there are positive feedback loops between all these things. 2) And then the second thing was just looking at the trends. If the scalable algorithms were to be discovered, then during the 2020s, it should be possible to start training models on significantly more data than a human would experience in a lifetime. And I figured that that would be a time where big things would start to happen that would eventually unlock AGI. And I think we're now at that first part. I think we can start training models now with the scale of the data that is beyond what a human can experience in a lifetime. So I think this is the first unlocking step. DWARKESH: If we're in 2029 and it hasn't happened yet, if there was a problem that caused it, what would be the most likely reason for that? SHANE LEGG: I don't know. At the moment, it looks to me like all the problems are likely solvable with a number of years of research.
3:34

GoogleDeepmind Chief AGI Scientist Shane Legg: AGI by 2028 He’s had the same timelines for 12 years - insane! He gives a log-normal distribution with a mode of 2025. Importantly, while he puts a 50% chance of AGI by 2028, that means there is a 30% chance of AGI in the next three years. How have his timelines been so consistent since 2011? SHANE LEGG: I first formed those beliefs around 2001 after reading Ray Kurzweil's The Age of Spiritual Machines. There were two really important points in his book that I came to believe as true: 1) One is that computational power would grow exponentially for at least a few decades. And that the quantity of data in the world would grow exponentially for a few decades. And when you have exponentially increasing quantities of computation and data, then the value of highly scalable algorithms gets higher and higher. There's a lot of incentive to make a more scalable algorithm to harness all this computing data. So I thought it would be very likely that we'll start to discover scalable algorithms to do this. And then there's a positive feedback between all these things, because if your algorithm gets better at harnessing computing data, then the value of the data and the compute goes up because it can be more effectively used. And that drives more investment in these areas. If your compute performance goes up, then the value of the data goes up because you can utilize more data. So there are positive feedback loops between all these things. 2) And then the second thing was just looking at the trends. If the scalable algorithms were to be discovered, then during the 2020s, it should be possible to start training models on significantly more data than a human would experience in a lifetime. And I figured that that would be a time where big things would start to happen that would eventually unlock AGI. And I think we're now at that first part. I think we can start training models now with the scale of the data that is beyond what a human can experience in a lifetime. So I think this is the first unlocking step. DWARKESH: If we're in 2029 and it hasn't happened yet, if there was a problem that caused it, what would be the most likely reason for that? SHANE LEGG: I don't know. At the moment, it looks to me like all the problems are likely solvable with a number of years of research.

AI Notkilleveryoneism Memes ⏸️

74,490 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren

🚨 $BTC MAJOR DOWNSIDE PHASE HAS BEGUN... Since early May, I've been saying that $BTC would eventually take out local lows and break below $60k $60k-$63k support zone has now been decisively lost and further downside could become aggressive Based on chart below, here's my roadmap for summer: 1. Bounce from the support zone → retest of $71k 2. Distribution phase begins 3. Impulsive sell-off toward $46k-$48k 4. Slow bottom formation → accumulation starts If it seemed like bottom was already in, current data suggests otherwise Bear market is still ongoing and avoiding major mistakes is more important than ever Prepare for a massive $BTC accumulation phase before next major expansion Turn on notifications so you don't miss next call...
0:38

🚨 $BTC MAJOR DOWNSIDE PHASE HAS BEGUN... Since early May, I've been saying that $BTC would eventually take out local lows and break below $60k $60k-$63k support zone has now been decisively lost and further downside could become aggressive Based on chart below, here's my roadmap for summer: 1. Bounce from the support zone → retest of $71k 2. Distribution phase begins 3. Impulsive sell-off toward $46k-$48k 4. Slow bottom formation → accumulation starts If it seemed like bottom was already in, current data suggests otherwise Bear market is still ongoing and avoiding major mistakes is more important than ever Prepare for a massive $BTC accumulation phase before next major expansion Turn on notifications so you don't miss next call...

Aralez 🐕

167,999 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

I always thought I couldn’t do 100s. 85s felt difficult. I just kept telling myself once these 85s feel easy and I can do more than 8 for 3 sets then I’ll move to 100s. I kept telling myself it was too heavy.. so it was. If you tell yourself you can’t do something, you can’t. It’s ok to be uncomfortable. I’ve learned this so here I was last week stepping out of my comfort zone. I decided to go for 100s last week and hopefully press it a couple of times. I got it 7 times for the first set but I was gassed out and could not do more. Today I did 3 sets both incline and flat press on 100s. Moral of the story: be kind to yourself and believe in yourself. If you don’t, then you won’t. You are your worst enemy at times, but that’s a decision. Decide to be your number one cheerleader, instead.
0:28

I always thought I couldn’t do 100s. 85s felt difficult. I just kept telling myself once these 85s feel easy and I can do more than 8 for 3 sets then I’ll move to 100s. I kept telling myself it was too heavy.. so it was. If you tell yourself you can’t do something, you can’t. It’s ok to be uncomfortable. I’ve learned this so here I was last week stepping out of my comfort zone. I decided to go for 100s last week and hopefully press it a couple of times. I got it 7 times for the first set but I was gassed out and could not do more. Today I did 3 sets both incline and flat press on 100s. Moral of the story: be kind to yourself and believe in yourself. If you don’t, then you won’t. You are your worst enemy at times, but that’s a decision. Decide to be your number one cheerleader, instead.

CTCG Minh_Wins

11,963 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

Wanna see what decentralized community based alternative to Hollywood actually looks like? - On Tuesday I do a spontaneous of a listener who has become my friend over the last 7 years. He’s a Jew named Toronto Jew bear and he sells sports memorabilia - On Wednesday irish truth seeker bear, someone so funny that for several years we all thought was a dude. Nope Irish woman. Puts together the story visuals as cuts Then cactus eater bear helps with Ai images. She is an American who does a monthly montage of “the good the true and the beautiful” and now with her husband help run the kids talent show at beartaria fest. - on thur they just sent it to me and I watched it for the first time on stream and it was absolutely hilarious. It’s actually Toronto Jew bears face crushing. Two days, 0 dollars. Tons of fun and higher quality than Netflix. We are just making fun of sports scandals that actually happened and memorabilia I actually want so “offended” just means “scared” or “envious.” No one is having more fun than the bears. Fact.
3:09

Wanna see what decentralized community based alternative to Hollywood actually looks like? - On Tuesday I do a spontaneous of a listener who has become my friend over the last 7 years. He’s a Jew named Toronto Jew bear and he sells sports memorabilia - On Wednesday irish truth seeker bear, someone so funny that for several years we all thought was a dude. Nope Irish woman. Puts together the story visuals as cuts Then cactus eater bear helps with Ai images. She is an American who does a monthly montage of “the good the true and the beautiful” and now with her husband help run the kids talent show at beartaria fest. - on thur they just sent it to me and I watched it for the first time on stream and it was absolutely hilarious. It’s actually Toronto Jew bears face crushing. Two days, 0 dollars. Tons of fun and higher quality than Netflix. We are just making fun of sports scandals that actually happened and memorabilia I actually want so “offended” just means “scared” or “envious.” No one is having more fun than the bears. Fact.

Owen Benjamin 🐻

22,256 Aufrufe • vor 10 Tagen

🔌Today I created a virtual web-based null modem so now you can finally play Quake 1 (from 1996) in multiplayer in the browser with other people online! This week I was able to create a virtual printer that listens on the COM2 port to make a web-based printer work in Windows 3.11, like on you can actually print to, it was one of my ideas when I started but it was always too difficult to make, I had no idea where to start, but this week AI was able to do it! Today I woke up and thought "if we can listen to COM2 via JS, how about listen to COM1 from Quake 1?" then we could forward the COM1 data via Websockets and to another user to create a virtual null modem (A null modem was a cable you'd use to connect two computers to each other directly in the 90s, if you couldn't afford buying a network card you'd use this to network, but you could only play with one other computer not multiple) So I built it, it took about an hour and works! I wanted to get Quake 1 in DOS to work with multiplayer for 2 years but I could never get it to work, but now it did it This project is a good benchmark of how capable AI is becoming, figuring stuff out that humans would take months within an hour You can try it here, I don't know how it will match lots of people but let's see, you have to exit to DOS first (ALT-F4 or FN-Option-F4 on Mac), then type CD games, then CD quake, then quake, then ESC, then Multiplayer, then either Create New Game or Join Game, and use Direct Connect, keep settings same and you're in!
1:35

🔌Today I created a virtual web-based null modem so now you can finally play Quake 1 (from 1996) in multiplayer in the browser with other people online! This week I was able to create a virtual printer that listens on the COM2 port to make a web-based printer work in Windows 3.11, like on you can actually print to, it was one of my ideas when I started but it was always too difficult to make, I had no idea where to start, but this week AI was able to do it! Today I woke up and thought "if we can listen to COM2 via JS, how about listen to COM1 from Quake 1?" then we could forward the COM1 data via Websockets and to another user to create a virtual null modem (A null modem was a cable you'd use to connect two computers to each other directly in the 90s, if you couldn't afford buying a network card you'd use this to network, but you could only play with one other computer not multiple) So I built it, it took about an hour and works! I wanted to get Quake 1 in DOS to work with multiplayer for 2 years but I could never get it to work, but now it did it This project is a good benchmark of how capable AI is becoming, figuring stuff out that humans would take months within an hour You can try it here, I don't know how it will match lots of people but let's see, you have to exit to DOS first (ALT-F4 or FN-Option-F4 on Mac), then type CD games, then CD quake, then quake, then ESC, then Multiplayer, then either Create New Game or Join Game, and use Direct Connect, keep settings same and you're in!

@levelsio

103,163 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

The last thing anyone should do is give more powers to the RBA. 👇 Yet that is exactly what One Nation is proposing. If making the RBA independent was the solution to our problems then why has Australia's economy gone backwards since it was granted full independence in 1996. There are numerous examples where the RBA has recklessly inflated spending such as Covid only to then impose a credit crunch to rein in their own stupidity. Furthermore we do not need to give more powers to unelected officials, especially central bankers. Don't get me wrong, you can't trust politicians when it comes to spending your money either but at least you get to vote them out. As seen in estimates the RBA is heavily influenced by the International Bank of Settlements, the most insidious globalist organisation on the planet. Not to mention the unwillingness of the RBA to repatriate our gold bars from the Bank of England. The idea that One Nation wants to give the RBA more powers goes to show when it comes to economic management, they have no idea as to what they are doing. It also makes a mockery of their claim to be standing up to globalist organisations. This is just another reason to vote for People First. We will control inflation by building infrastructure and cut government waste without the RBA holding our hands. If you want the real solution to our problems sign up today at ••••••••• "One Nation treasury spokesman Barnaby Joyce has signalled a radical reshaping of the Reserve Bank of Australia as one of the party’s top priorities, arguing that the institution should have powers to pressure governments to reduce inflation. The government has moved to making a Reserve Bank less independent. I believe it’s got to go in the completely opposite direction – more independent. And I think, in that discussion, the bank must clearly state: this is the target money the government should be putting into the economy."
2:26

The last thing anyone should do is give more powers to the RBA. 👇 Yet that is exactly what One Nation is proposing. If making the RBA independent was the solution to our problems then why has Australia's economy gone backwards since it was granted full independence in 1996. There are numerous examples where the RBA has recklessly inflated spending such as Covid only to then impose a credit crunch to rein in their own stupidity. Furthermore we do not need to give more powers to unelected officials, especially central bankers. Don't get me wrong, you can't trust politicians when it comes to spending your money either but at least you get to vote them out. As seen in estimates the RBA is heavily influenced by the International Bank of Settlements, the most insidious globalist organisation on the planet. Not to mention the unwillingness of the RBA to repatriate our gold bars from the Bank of England. The idea that One Nation wants to give the RBA more powers goes to show when it comes to economic management, they have no idea as to what they are doing. It also makes a mockery of their claim to be standing up to globalist organisations. This is just another reason to vote for People First. We will control inflation by building infrastructure and cut government waste without the RBA holding our hands. If you want the real solution to our problems sign up today at ••••••••• "One Nation treasury spokesman Barnaby Joyce has signalled a radical reshaping of the Reserve Bank of Australia as one of the party’s top priorities, arguing that the institution should have powers to pressure governments to reduce inflation. The government has moved to making a Reserve Bank less independent. I believe it’s got to go in the completely opposite direction – more independent. And I think, in that discussion, the bank must clearly state: this is the target money the government should be putting into the economy."

Gerard Rennick

20,612 Aufrufe • vor 13 Tagen

Three Reasons To Buy Bitcoin (Right Now) In this clip from The Call, Macro & Digital Assets analyst Joshua Steiner provides the basis for why Hedgeye has pivoted to a Bullish position on Bitcoin. 🔊 Among the reasons is a shift to Monthly Quad 2 - when growth and inflation are accelerating at the same time. "The only quad that Bitcoin backtests really poorly in is Quad 4 [when growth and inflation slow together]," Steiner explains. "The best is in Quad 3 [when growth slows, but inflation accelerates]. And interestingly we have a May Quad 3 and a June Quad 2." Steiner also highlights Hedgeye’s current Bullish trend signal on Bitcoin, noting that the cryptocurrency is in a pivotal stage of its quadrennial halving cycle—a period that has historically marked some of its most explosive return phases. Make no mistake, Hedgeye views Bitcoin as just another asset to be bought and sold in the appropriate economic environments. We don't blindly hold it in perpetuity - we buy it when it's appropriate and short it when the data tells us to. Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough also summarized the three reasons to buy Bitcoin: "The [bullish] signal says buy it. The Quad says buy it. And the fundamental backdrop on the supply side that Steiner walked through says buy it. I don't have to spend the rest of my life telling you how smart I am about Bitcoin." ****** Subscribe to The Call for more daily investment insights 👇
6:23

Three Reasons To Buy Bitcoin (Right Now) In this clip from The Call, Macro & Digital Assets analyst Joshua Steiner provides the basis for why Hedgeye has pivoted to a Bullish position on Bitcoin. 🔊 Among the reasons is a shift to Monthly Quad 2 - when growth and inflation are accelerating at the same time. "The only quad that Bitcoin backtests really poorly in is Quad 4 [when growth and inflation slow together]," Steiner explains. "The best is in Quad 3 [when growth slows, but inflation accelerates]. And interestingly we have a May Quad 3 and a June Quad 2." Steiner also highlights Hedgeye’s current Bullish trend signal on Bitcoin, noting that the cryptocurrency is in a pivotal stage of its quadrennial halving cycle—a period that has historically marked some of its most explosive return phases. Make no mistake, Hedgeye views Bitcoin as just another asset to be bought and sold in the appropriate economic environments. We don't blindly hold it in perpetuity - we buy it when it's appropriate and short it when the data tells us to. Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough also summarized the three reasons to buy Bitcoin: "The [bullish] signal says buy it. The Quad says buy it. And the fundamental backdrop on the supply side that Steiner walked through says buy it. I don't have to spend the rest of my life telling you how smart I am about Bitcoin." ****** Subscribe to The Call for more daily investment insights 👇

Hedgeye

72,691 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

March was yet another banger month for Deepvue. Here's a quick overview of the massive upgrades we pushed out: ∙NEW Theme Tracker app See what's performing (or not) over the last day, week, month, and YTD. You can easily add this app to your dashboard by dragging and dropping in the dashboard module. — ∙IMPROVED Data Panel Resize your data panel dynamically — easy drag to make a one column or two column view. New search feature finds data points, opens categories, and auto-scrolls to them. — ∙ADDED Institutional & Insider Ownership data You can screen for increasing institutional ownership over a multi-quarter period, making it easy to track where the big money is flowing. — ∙NEW Screen Presets Added "Momentum Leaders" plus high/increasing institutional & insider ownership preset screens. ∙ADDED 2024 Model Book Stocks as a preset watchlist from — ∙ UPGRADED UI We've added an undo button for stocks that you may have deleted but want to keep on your watchlists. We also added new icons for quick access to dashboards, screeners, watchlists, and share features on the top menu bar. You'll also see subtle hover effects in the dropdown menus so you'll never lose your place. — User Interface and Experience will continue to be a massive focus of ours into Q2, and we couldn't be more excited about what's to come 💪
5:41

March was yet another banger month for Deepvue. Here's a quick overview of the massive upgrades we pushed out: ∙NEW Theme Tracker app See what's performing (or not) over the last day, week, month, and YTD. You can easily add this app to your dashboard by dragging and dropping in the dashboard module. — ∙IMPROVED Data Panel Resize your data panel dynamically — easy drag to make a one column or two column view. New search feature finds data points, opens categories, and auto-scrolls to them. — ∙ADDED Institutional & Insider Ownership data You can screen for increasing institutional ownership over a multi-quarter period, making it easy to track where the big money is flowing. — ∙NEW Screen Presets Added "Momentum Leaders" plus high/increasing institutional & insider ownership preset screens. ∙ADDED 2024 Model Book Stocks as a preset watchlist from — ∙ UPGRADED UI We've added an undo button for stocks that you may have deleted but want to keep on your watchlists. We also added new icons for quick access to dashboards, screeners, watchlists, and share features on the top menu bar. You'll also see subtle hover effects in the dropdown menus so you'll never lose your place. — User Interface and Experience will continue to be a massive focus of ours into Q2, and we couldn't be more excited about what's to come 💪

Deepvue

13,182 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr