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Inflation free-fall confirmed. Based on monthly data inflation 3.4% Qtrly data 4.1%. Last quarter annualised for fun, 2.5%. Nov 2023 rate hike looks sillier today than it did then. Start date for RBA cuts tricky as always. Don't rule out March, could be May My Two Minute Take

Stephen Koukoulas

65,517 subscribers

52,402 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren •via X (Twitter)

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10 Kommentare

Profilbild von Kit Lowe

Kit Lowevor 2 Jahren

Off monthly CPI real rates are +0.95% !

Profilbild von dan@marketcycology

dan@marketcycologyvor 2 Jahren

Hahahaha @TheKouk starting to wind back his timing. March is now May. Then May will become September. Comical stuff.

Profilbild von Reserve Bank of Property Bears

Reserve Bank of Property Bearsvor 2 Jahren

Property bears right now

Profilbild von Jimmmmy

Jimmmmyvor 2 Jahren

hahaha where’s solo dio?? he should be delighted. Probably cleaning his bedroom before he loses his pocket money. Inflation falling back to target, rate cuts on the horizon. What’s not to like 😎

Profilbild von Lord Cobblesworth

Lord Cobblesworthvor 2 Jahren

You must have been frothing to get this 2 minute take out...😂 And I'm free I'm free fallin' Yeah, I'm free Free fallin' Free fallin', now I'm free fallin', now I'm Free fallin', now I'm free fallin', now I'm

Profilbild von Jon Klaric

Jon Klaricvor 2 Jahren

If the annualized inflation rate is 2.5%, that would indicate pause not rate cuts...I don't see a cut in H1. Maybe Q3/4 at the earliest.

Profilbild von David Bridges

David Bridgesvor 2 Jahren

RBA won't do March. It'd be an admission of silliness in Nov.

Profilbild von Tyler Green

Tyler Greenvor 2 Jahren

Rate cuts will send the #btc price into the stratosphere.

Profilbild von Powell's Other Glasses (Ausnotes) 🌸

Powell's Other Glasses (Ausnotes) 🌸vor 2 Jahren

A cut later in the year.

Profilbild von Joel

Joelvor 2 Jahren

You must have missed this line in your bias and constant incorrect commentary ‘Annual inflation for Non-tradables remains elevated at 5.4 per cent due to price rises for new dwellings, rents, insurance and electricity’ But don’t let the truth get in the way of the ponzi 😂

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Inflation free-fall confirmed. Annual inflation 5.6% in year to May, down a whopping 2.8ppts since Dec 2022. In 1st 5 months of 2023, inflation is 1.2%, 0.24% per month; an annualised rate under 3%. Target hit. RBA has made a horrible error with recent hikes. My Two Minute Take

Inflation free-fall confirmed. Annual inflation 5.6% in year to May, down a whopping 2.8ppts since Dec 2022. In 1st 5 months of 2023, inflation is 1.2%, 0.24% per month; an annualised rate under 3%. Target hit. RBA has made a horrible error with recent hikes. My Two Minute Take

Stephen Koukoulas

202,269 Aufrufe • vor 3 Jahren

Inflation in free fall: from 8.4% to 4.9% in 10 months. Inflation -0.3% in October and is set to fall to 3% by year end, especially as petrol prices feed into the data and some large increases in late 2022 drop out of the run rate. RBA looking very, very silly My Two Minute Take

Inflation in free fall: from 8.4% to 4.9% in 10 months. Inflation -0.3% in October and is set to fall to 3% by year end, especially as petrol prices feed into the data and some large increases in late 2022 drop out of the run rate. RBA looking very, very silly My Two Minute Take

Stephen Koukoulas

122,567 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren

🚨🚨🚨 THE MARKET IS NOT READY FOR TODAY’S FED DECISION! The Fed announces its rate decision TODAY at 2:00 PM ET. Prediction markets on Limitless currently see an 87% chance of a RATE HIKE. But, a hike could actually be BULLISH for the stocks. JPMorgan’s trading desk sees five possible scenarios for the S&P 500: 🔴 NO HIKE: Stocks could fall 1.25%-1.75% as inflation fears push longer-term bond yields higher. 🟢 0.25% HIKE, NO NEW GUIDANCE: Stocks could rise 0.25%-0.75% as the Fed reassures markets it’s addressing inflation. 🟢 0.25% HIKE + MORE HIKES SIGNALED FOR OCTOBER AND DECEMBER: Stocks could rise 0.5%-1% as a faster response restores confidence. 🔴 0.25% HIKE + FEARS BIGGER HIKES ARE NEEDED: Stocks could fall 0.25%-1% as traders price in more aggressive tightening. 🔴 0.25% HIKE + RATES NEED TO GO MUCH HIGHER: Stocks could fall 1%-2% on fears of another 2022-style hiking cycle. Too little = inflation fears could send bond yields higher. Too much = markets start worrying about growth. Limitless traders are leaning bullish on $SPY in the short-term, seeing a 62% chance it closes green today : Market: This week will be insane.

🚨🚨🚨 THE MARKET IS NOT READY FOR TODAY’S FED DECISION! The Fed announces its rate decision TODAY at 2:00 PM ET. Prediction markets on Limitless currently see an 87% chance of a RATE HIKE. But, a hike could actually be BULLISH for the stocks. JPMorgan’s trading desk sees five possible scenarios for the S&P 500: 🔴 NO HIKE: Stocks could fall 1.25%-1.75% as inflation fears push longer-term bond yields higher. 🟢 0.25% HIKE, NO NEW GUIDANCE: Stocks could rise 0.25%-0.75% as the Fed reassures markets it’s addressing inflation. 🟢 0.25% HIKE + MORE HIKES SIGNALED FOR OCTOBER AND DECEMBER: Stocks could rise 0.5%-1% as a faster response restores confidence. 🔴 0.25% HIKE + FEARS BIGGER HIKES ARE NEEDED: Stocks could fall 0.25%-1% as traders price in more aggressive tightening. 🔴 0.25% HIKE + RATES NEED TO GO MUCH HIGHER: Stocks could fall 1%-2% on fears of another 2022-style hiking cycle. Too little = inflation fears could send bond yields higher. Too much = markets start worrying about growth. Limitless traders are leaning bullish on $SPY in the short-term, seeing a 62% chance it closes green today : Market: This week will be insane.

Limitless Finance

26,416 Aufrufe • vor 14 Tagen

#WATCH | Delhi: On India's GDP growth of 7.8% in Q1, Congress leader Supriya Shrinate says, "I do not know whether Ravi Shankar Prasad and the BJP have ever even heard of per capita income. The per capita income of countries like Germany is 8 to 10 times higher than ours... The GDP growth should be reflected in people's everyday lives... They are projecting a GDP growth rate of 7.8% for the first quarter... Look at whether jobs are actually being created—they are not. Look at investment—Gross Fixed Capital Formation is growing at a mere 11.9%... People's purchasing power has declined... Until now, there had been no controversy surrounding India's data. Today, many are pointing out that the base year was changed, which caused a spike in the numbers... They are citing a GDP growth rate of 10.3%, and the inflation deflator is at 2.5%. Does that imply a growth rate of 7.8%?... In the first quarter, inflation was around 5.7%... There is a difference of 1.2% to 1.3% between the GDP deflator and the actual effective inflation rate. For the first time, that gap has widened to 3.4%... The first concern is that questions are now being raised about India's data—data that previously went unquestioned. The second major concern is: who is actually experiencing this growth?... Third, why is the Prime Minister appealing to people not to buy gold?..."

#WATCH | Delhi: On India's GDP growth of 7.8% in Q1, Congress leader Supriya Shrinate says, "I do not know whether Ravi Shankar Prasad and the BJP have ever even heard of per capita income. The per capita income of countries like Germany is 8 to 10 times higher than ours... The GDP growth should be reflected in people's everyday lives... They are projecting a GDP growth rate of 7.8% for the first quarter... Look at whether jobs are actually being created—they are not. Look at investment—Gross Fixed Capital Formation is growing at a mere 11.9%... People's purchasing power has declined... Until now, there had been no controversy surrounding India's data. Today, many are pointing out that the base year was changed, which caused a spike in the numbers... They are citing a GDP growth rate of 10.3%, and the inflation deflator is at 2.5%. Does that imply a growth rate of 7.8%?... In the first quarter, inflation was around 5.7%... There is a difference of 1.2% to 1.3% between the GDP deflator and the actual effective inflation rate. For the first time, that gap has widened to 3.4%... The first concern is that questions are now being raised about India's data—data that previously went unquestioned. The second major concern is: who is actually experiencing this growth?... Third, why is the Prime Minister appealing to people not to buy gold?..."

ANI

46,974 Aufrufe • vor 29 Tagen

Powell has just delivered his farewell speech at Harvard. He has officially killed the market’s 2026 rate-cut fantasy for good. Take one minute to understand the brutal truth behind this address.👇 1. The death spiral of debt is out in the open He unusually acknowledged the elephant in the room: U.S. debt is growing “far faster” than the economy. He warned the consequences would be catastrophic if no action is taken. (Spoiler: politicians have no real solution for it.) 2. Rate cuts are dead; hikes are back on the table Middle East tensions have kept oil prices firmly elevated. Powell made it crystal clear: the 2% inflation target is non-negotiable. Forget about the Fed bailing out the market. If data worsens, investors must now brace for the terrifying prospect of another 25-basis-point rate hike. 3. Shattering the quiet optimism of the 2026 graduating class AI will create jobs in the long run, but for graduates entering the workforce now, this year is without question a job-hunting season from hell.

Powell has just delivered his farewell speech at Harvard. He has officially killed the market’s 2026 rate-cut fantasy for good. Take one minute to understand the brutal truth behind this address.👇 1. The death spiral of debt is out in the open He unusually acknowledged the elephant in the room: U.S. debt is growing “far faster” than the economy. He warned the consequences would be catastrophic if no action is taken. (Spoiler: politicians have no real solution for it.) 2. Rate cuts are dead; hikes are back on the table Middle East tensions have kept oil prices firmly elevated. Powell made it crystal clear: the 2% inflation target is non-negotiable. Forget about the Fed bailing out the market. If data worsens, investors must now brace for the terrifying prospect of another 25-basis-point rate hike. 3. Shattering the quiet optimism of the 2026 graduating class AI will create jobs in the long run, but for graduates entering the workforce now, this year is without question a job-hunting season from hell.

Satori 🎴 💀

61,001 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

Roger Altman on why people don’t feel the economy is strong even though so many of the key data points indicate that it is. (I realize this is stating the obvious for some!) “I’ve never seen anything like this where the economic data right now is about as good as it gets. I mean, you’ve got, as we just said, resilient growth. Labor markets are healthy. 4.1% unemployment rate, jobs still being created. Private investments strong, financial markets strong, and inflation cooling very obviously, sharply cooling. And yet, the voter attitudes toward the economy are quite negative. It traces back to the first year after COVID erupted, when for a year, year and a half, prices rose a lot—primarily on account of the pandemic and supply chain issues. Even though inflation, as you said, has cooled almost back to the Fed’s long-term 2% target, people see every day in the grocery store or elsewhere that the price of milk or bacon or eggs, or whatever it may be, is quite a bit higher than it was four years ago, and they don’t like it.”

Roger Altman on why people don’t feel the economy is strong even though so many of the key data points indicate that it is. (I realize this is stating the obvious for some!) “I’ve never seen anything like this where the economic data right now is about as good as it gets. I mean, you’ve got, as we just said, resilient growth. Labor markets are healthy. 4.1% unemployment rate, jobs still being created. Private investments strong, financial markets strong, and inflation cooling very obviously, sharply cooling. And yet, the voter attitudes toward the economy are quite negative. It traces back to the first year after COVID erupted, when for a year, year and a half, prices rose a lot—primarily on account of the pandemic and supply chain issues. Even though inflation, as you said, has cooled almost back to the Fed’s long-term 2% target, people see every day in the grocery store or elsewhere that the price of milk or bacon or eggs, or whatever it may be, is quite a bit higher than it was four years ago, and they don’t like it.”

Yashar Ali 🐘

131,995 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

Statement on today's interest rate rise from One Nation leader Pauline Hanson: Labor has failed to get inflation under control. Jim Chalmers said rates were coming down. But today, Australians have been hit with another interest rate rise. Another Labor lie. And yet again, Jim Chalmers blames everyone but himself. Labor has wrecked our economy and it needs to be fixed. Until then, people need help. One Nation’s Super Pay Boost would allow Australians to take a quarter of their future super contributions as take-home pay for up to three years for their mortgage or rent. It won’t fix Labor’s mess. But it could give a working family about $82 more a week after tax. Labor is running this country into the ground. The best thing Jim Chalmers could do today is implement One Nation’s Super Pay Boost, then he should resign.

Statement on today's interest rate rise from One Nation leader Pauline Hanson: Labor has failed to get inflation under control. Jim Chalmers said rates were coming down. But today, Australians have been hit with another interest rate rise. Another Labor lie. And yet again, Jim Chalmers blames everyone but himself. Labor has wrecked our economy and it needs to be fixed. Until then, people need help. One Nation’s Super Pay Boost would allow Australians to take a quarter of their future super contributions as take-home pay for up to three years for their mortgage or rent. It won’t fix Labor’s mess. But it could give a working family about $82 more a week after tax. Labor is running this country into the ground. The best thing Jim Chalmers could do today is implement One Nation’s Super Pay Boost, then he should resign.

Pauline Hanson 🇦🇺

86,494 Aufrufe • vor 2 Tagen

BREAKING: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh says the Fed didn't need to raise rates today because the bond market already did the job for it. Here's what he said: - Inflation is still above the Fed's 2% goal. The Committee says it will deliver price stability, no exceptions. - There is no hidden higher inflation target. 2% is the real number, and 5+ years of high inflation can't be fixed overnight. - Two things stood out since the last meeting: Treasury yields moved sharply on their own, one of the biggest moves in 20 years, even without a rate change. And AI-related business investment surged nearly 20% this quarter. - The vote to hold was 9-3. Warsh called it a real internal debate, not a rubber stamp. - June's cooler CPI report barely moved the Committee's thinking. They're watching trends, not single data points. - Holding rates isn't a pause, according to Warsh. Markets already tightened conditions on their own through rising yields. - The Fed is deliberately giving less forward guidance so markets react to real data instead of Fed hints. - There's no tradeoff between fighting inflation and protecting jobs. Warsh says hitting the 2% target actually supports the job market. - AI-driven investment is making it harder to judge if the economy is running hot or just growing fast. - Warsh says the internal disagreement was over timing and tactics, not the Fed's actual mission. - Jackson Hole in August remains open. Could be a big-picture speech or a setup for the rest of the year.

BREAKING: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh says the Fed didn't need to raise rates today because the bond market already did the job for it. Here's what he said: - Inflation is still above the Fed's 2% goal. The Committee says it will deliver price stability, no exceptions. - There is no hidden higher inflation target. 2% is the real number, and 5+ years of high inflation can't be fixed overnight. - Two things stood out since the last meeting: Treasury yields moved sharply on their own, one of the biggest moves in 20 years, even without a rate change. And AI-related business investment surged nearly 20% this quarter. - The vote to hold was 9-3. Warsh called it a real internal debate, not a rubber stamp. - June's cooler CPI report barely moved the Committee's thinking. They're watching trends, not single data points. - Holding rates isn't a pause, according to Warsh. Markets already tightened conditions on their own through rising yields. - The Fed is deliberately giving less forward guidance so markets react to real data instead of Fed hints. - There's no tradeoff between fighting inflation and protecting jobs. Warsh says hitting the 2% target actually supports the job market. - AI-driven investment is making it harder to judge if the economy is running hot or just growing fast. - Warsh says the internal disagreement was over timing and tactics, not the Fed's actual mission. - Jackson Hole in August remains open. Could be a big-picture speech or a setup for the rest of the year.

Bull Theory

170,129 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

🚨 WARNING: SOMETHING VERY BAD JUST HAPPENED. The Fed is now projected to hike rates by 25 BPS in October. And if you think this doesn’t matter for global markets... Just a few months ago, 2026 was supposed to be the year of RATE CUTS. Now the market is pricing in another HIKE. Yet somehow, stocks are still sitting near all-time highs. Something doesn’t make sense: → Oil is above $100. → Diesel prices are near record highs. → Inflation is still sticky. → Rates are already restrictive. And now the Fed could tighten AGAIN. So why hasn’t the market cracked yet? Because one thing is still holding everything together: THE AI BOOM. And this is what most people are missing. AI isn’t only pushing stocks higher. IT IS GIVING THE FED MORE ROOM TO STAY AGGRESSIVE. Massive AI spending keeps growth strong while a small group of mega-cap stocks continues carrying the indexes. As long as that continues, the Fed has less pressure to back off. The setup is simple: AI boom → growth stays strong → inflation stays sticky → rates stay higher → another hike becomes possible. Now add: $100+ oil → higher energy costs → more inflation pressure → even less room for cuts. October or December isn’t the important part. The direction is. Months ago: RATE CUTS. Now: NO CUTS → HIKE → POSSIBLY ANOTHER HIKE. The market can handle this while AI keeps carrying it. The real danger starts when AI finally cracks. If those stocks roll over while rates are still rising and inflation remains hot, the market loses the ONE thing absorbing all that pressure. Then things can get ugly very fast: AI cracks → indexes fall → liquidity disappears → forced selling begins. And once forced selling starts, funds don’t sell what they WANT. They sell what they CAN. → Stocks. → Metals. → Bitcoin. That’s the part most people aren’t prepared for. And that’s exactly where the next real buying opportunity could appear. I’m not scared of the dump. I’M WAITING FOR IT. I’ve been trading markets for 15+ years. When the liquidation starts and I see the level actually worth buying, I’ll post it here like I always do. Turn notifications on. You’ll want to come back to this chart later.

🚨 WARNING: SOMETHING VERY BAD JUST HAPPENED. The Fed is now projected to hike rates by 25 BPS in October. And if you think this doesn’t matter for global markets... Just a few months ago, 2026 was supposed to be the year of RATE CUTS. Now the market is pricing in another HIKE. Yet somehow, stocks are still sitting near all-time highs. Something doesn’t make sense: → Oil is above $100. → Diesel prices are near record highs. → Inflation is still sticky. → Rates are already restrictive. And now the Fed could tighten AGAIN. So why hasn’t the market cracked yet? Because one thing is still holding everything together: THE AI BOOM. And this is what most people are missing. AI isn’t only pushing stocks higher. IT IS GIVING THE FED MORE ROOM TO STAY AGGRESSIVE. Massive AI spending keeps growth strong while a small group of mega-cap stocks continues carrying the indexes. As long as that continues, the Fed has less pressure to back off. The setup is simple: AI boom → growth stays strong → inflation stays sticky → rates stay higher → another hike becomes possible. Now add: $100+ oil → higher energy costs → more inflation pressure → even less room for cuts. October or December isn’t the important part. The direction is. Months ago: RATE CUTS. Now: NO CUTS → HIKE → POSSIBLY ANOTHER HIKE. The market can handle this while AI keeps carrying it. The real danger starts when AI finally cracks. If those stocks roll over while rates are still rising and inflation remains hot, the market loses the ONE thing absorbing all that pressure. Then things can get ugly very fast: AI cracks → indexes fall → liquidity disappears → forced selling begins. And once forced selling starts, funds don’t sell what they WANT. They sell what they CAN. → Stocks. → Metals. → Bitcoin. That’s the part most people aren’t prepared for. And that’s exactly where the next real buying opportunity could appear. I’m not scared of the dump. I’M WAITING FOR IT. I’ve been trading markets for 15+ years. When the liquidation starts and I see the level actually worth buying, I’ll post it here like I always do. Turn notifications on. You’ll want to come back to this chart later.

DANNY

59,068 Aufrufe • vor 8 Tagen

On July 29, the Fed could cut every retail portfolio in America. Rate hike odds just tripled in 7 days. Trillions in housing, small caps, and tech are one Warsh sentence away from collapse. Here's what Wall Street already knows and retail doesn't: Seven days ago, the market was pricing in a rate cut this summer. Retail investors piled into every trade that benefits from lower rates. Housing stocks, small caps, unprofitable tech, and long-term bonds all ran on one assumption. That assumption was simple: rates were coming down. Then everything changed this week: > Oil surged near $100 after Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers this week. > WTI closed Friday above $90. Brent stayed above $95 through the weekend. > Gas prices are already climbing back toward $4 a gallon. > New global tariffs kicked in the same week. Inflation expectations jumped overnight. > The 10-year Treasury yield ripped to 4.71%. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is publicly split with his own board. By Friday, the rate hike odds for the July 29 meeting had tripled. In just one week, the entire outlook flipped. A Wells Fargo strategist said rising oil weakens consumers and complicates the inflation fight. His conclusion: the Fed may need to hike more and faster than anyone expected. This is the trap retail investors keep walking into. The consensus trade always feels safe until the day it isn't. Buy the dip, ride the cut, and wait for the pivot - that works until oil spikes, inflation runs hot, and the Fed changes direction. Here's the worst part. Consumer spending is already fragile. Real wages have been negative for months. The average household is paying thousands more on essentials than two years ago. Now add a rate hike into that picture: > Small caps get repriced overnight. > Housing stocks lose their entire 2026 rally in a week. > Every unprofitable tech name that ran on cheap money gets crushed. Retail investors holding those positions find out only after the announcement. Wednesday is the Fed decision. Thursday brings Q2 GDP and PCE inflation data. Those are two of the year's most important reports, arriving back to back. This is exactly the setup where emotional investors get flattened. They panic sell on the headline, then chase the bounce out of FOMO. That cycle repeats on every intraday swing until the account is bleeding. The investors who come out ahead don't watch the Fed feed refresh. They already have a strategy running before the announcement hits. It runs on automated, rules-based logic, with no emotion and no guesswork. That's exactly what Surmount was built for:

On July 29, the Fed could cut every retail portfolio in America. Rate hike odds just tripled in 7 days. Trillions in housing, small caps, and tech are one Warsh sentence away from collapse. Here's what Wall Street already knows and retail doesn't: Seven days ago, the market was pricing in a rate cut this summer. Retail investors piled into every trade that benefits from lower rates. Housing stocks, small caps, unprofitable tech, and long-term bonds all ran on one assumption. That assumption was simple: rates were coming down. Then everything changed this week: > Oil surged near $100 after Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers this week. > WTI closed Friday above $90. Brent stayed above $95 through the weekend. > Gas prices are already climbing back toward $4 a gallon. > New global tariffs kicked in the same week. Inflation expectations jumped overnight. > The 10-year Treasury yield ripped to 4.71%. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is publicly split with his own board. By Friday, the rate hike odds for the July 29 meeting had tripled. In just one week, the entire outlook flipped. A Wells Fargo strategist said rising oil weakens consumers and complicates the inflation fight. His conclusion: the Fed may need to hike more and faster than anyone expected. This is the trap retail investors keep walking into. The consensus trade always feels safe until the day it isn't. Buy the dip, ride the cut, and wait for the pivot - that works until oil spikes, inflation runs hot, and the Fed changes direction. Here's the worst part. Consumer spending is already fragile. Real wages have been negative for months. The average household is paying thousands more on essentials than two years ago. Now add a rate hike into that picture: > Small caps get repriced overnight. > Housing stocks lose their entire 2026 rally in a week. > Every unprofitable tech name that ran on cheap money gets crushed. Retail investors holding those positions find out only after the announcement. Wednesday is the Fed decision. Thursday brings Q2 GDP and PCE inflation data. Those are two of the year's most important reports, arriving back to back. This is exactly the setup where emotional investors get flattened. They panic sell on the headline, then chase the bounce out of FOMO. That cycle repeats on every intraday swing until the account is bleeding. The investors who come out ahead don't watch the Fed feed refresh. They already have a strategy running before the announcement hits. It runs on automated, rules-based logic, with no emotion and no guesswork. That's exactly what Surmount was built for:

Surmount

10,856 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

BREAKING: 10 days into the job, Trump is already throwing his new Fed Chair under the bus. The market priced his confirmation as a guaranteed rate cut. Hours after the swearing-in, Trump was on Truth Social demanding cuts that aren't coming. Here's why the entire 2026 rate cut thesis just broke: For most of 2026, Wall Street traded on one assumption. Trump replaces Powell with his own guy. The Fed delivers the cuts the President has been demanding for two years, and risk assets rip. Every long-duration asset on the board priced it in. Warsh's Senate confirmation passed 54-45 in May. The closest Fed Chair vote in modern history. The political fight was taken as proof Warsh would be loyal to the man who picked him. Then everyone read his actual Senate testimony: Warsh has been a public critic of the Fed's bloated balance sheet for over a decade. His pitch was what he called "regime change" at the Fed. He's philosophically closer to Paul Volcker than to a yes-man. Volcker pushed rates above 19% in 1981 to break inflation. Wall Street hated him at the time. History celebrates him today. That's the model Warsh has been studying for years. Not the easing playbook Trump wants. Then the macro data turned on him before he even took office. The May 28th PCE reading was the highest in nearly three years. WTI crude jumped almost 6% on June 1st to $92.54 a barrel. Iran had just suspended indirect talks with the US. Tariff costs from Trump's own February executive orders are still working through goods prices. Sticky inflation from policy decisions Trump made himself. Warsh walked into the worst possible setup. Hot inflation, an energy shock, and a President demanding the one move that would make inflation worse. Yesterday, June 2nd, Trump went back on Truth Social to attack Warsh for not cutting fast enough. 10 days into the job. From his own hand-picked Chair. This is where retail investors get trapped. The narrative all year was simple. Trump installs his guy. Cheap money returns. Buy everything that benefits. That trade required three things to be true at once. 1. Warsh has to be a puppet. 2. Inflation has to cooperate. 3. There has to be political room to cut. Right now, zero of those three are true. Markets have already priced out 2026 rate cuts entirely. A rate hike by year-end is now considered more likely than a cut. Retail positioning hasn't caught up. Most portfolios are still leaning long-duration tech and rate-sensitive assets that work in a cutting cycle and bleed in a holding cycle. Institutional positioning has caught up months ago. Berkshire sits on a record $397 billion in cash. Hedge funds rotated into commodities and short-duration. The S&P sits at all-time highs while the smart money is positioned for the cuts not arriving. A Fed Chair who believes in inflation credibility doesn't cut into rising prices regardless of who appointed him. The investors who win stopped trying to predict the next Fed move years ago. The market will reprice when it stops pretending otherwise. You can guess which week that happens. Or you can run a system that doesn't have to guess. Surmount automates your investments with rules-based strategies built on data, not political headlines...

BREAKING: 10 days into the job, Trump is already throwing his new Fed Chair under the bus. The market priced his confirmation as a guaranteed rate cut. Hours after the swearing-in, Trump was on Truth Social demanding cuts that aren't coming. Here's why the entire 2026 rate cut thesis just broke: For most of 2026, Wall Street traded on one assumption. Trump replaces Powell with his own guy. The Fed delivers the cuts the President has been demanding for two years, and risk assets rip. Every long-duration asset on the board priced it in. Warsh's Senate confirmation passed 54-45 in May. The closest Fed Chair vote in modern history. The political fight was taken as proof Warsh would be loyal to the man who picked him. Then everyone read his actual Senate testimony: Warsh has been a public critic of the Fed's bloated balance sheet for over a decade. His pitch was what he called "regime change" at the Fed. He's philosophically closer to Paul Volcker than to a yes-man. Volcker pushed rates above 19% in 1981 to break inflation. Wall Street hated him at the time. History celebrates him today. That's the model Warsh has been studying for years. Not the easing playbook Trump wants. Then the macro data turned on him before he even took office. The May 28th PCE reading was the highest in nearly three years. WTI crude jumped almost 6% on June 1st to $92.54 a barrel. Iran had just suspended indirect talks with the US. Tariff costs from Trump's own February executive orders are still working through goods prices. Sticky inflation from policy decisions Trump made himself. Warsh walked into the worst possible setup. Hot inflation, an energy shock, and a President demanding the one move that would make inflation worse. Yesterday, June 2nd, Trump went back on Truth Social to attack Warsh for not cutting fast enough. 10 days into the job. From his own hand-picked Chair. This is where retail investors get trapped. The narrative all year was simple. Trump installs his guy. Cheap money returns. Buy everything that benefits. That trade required three things to be true at once. 1. Warsh has to be a puppet. 2. Inflation has to cooperate. 3. There has to be political room to cut. Right now, zero of those three are true. Markets have already priced out 2026 rate cuts entirely. A rate hike by year-end is now considered more likely than a cut. Retail positioning hasn't caught up. Most portfolios are still leaning long-duration tech and rate-sensitive assets that work in a cutting cycle and bleed in a holding cycle. Institutional positioning has caught up months ago. Berkshire sits on a record $397 billion in cash. Hedge funds rotated into commodities and short-duration. The S&P sits at all-time highs while the smart money is positioned for the cuts not arriving. A Fed Chair who believes in inflation credibility doesn't cut into rising prices regardless of who appointed him. The investors who win stopped trying to predict the next Fed move years ago. The market will reprice when it stops pretending otherwise. You can guess which week that happens. Or you can run a system that doesn't have to guess. Surmount automates your investments with rules-based strategies built on data, not political headlines...

Logan Weaver

39,822 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

Let’s break down Bessent’s statements here, and line them up with reality: 1) “We have found the ‘money man’ for the Ayatollah, we are tracking his properties around the world” This is ludicrous. Ben Bartenstein at Bloomberg did a year-long investigation into both the Shamkhani network, as well as into Ali Ansari, who is the “money man” Bessent is referencing. This reporting was published in January, was widely read, and as a result, Iran built contingencies for the inevitable sanctioning of Ansari (which happened during the Iran War). 2) “We’re protecting this money for the American people” … do you mean the Iranian people Scott? It’s really hard to tell when you blatantly plunder Venezuela, and then multiple times threaten to steal Iran’s frozen assets to use for whatever Washington decided for the day. Funding repairs to vessels? Funding repairs to Gulf countries? In any event, it doesn’t seem like we had any intention to actually help the Iranian people with this money. 3) “Iran’s currency has collapsed, it’s at an all time low vs. the dollar and it’s in freefall.” So… I’ve run the numbers here. Multiple times. Over the last two years, the Rial rose at a compounded growth rate of 4.59%/month. From 586,500:1 on Feb 28, 2024, to 1,720,500:1 on Feb 28, 2026. The problem here is that since Feb 28, when the Iran War kicked off, the Rial has only risen to 1,919,000 from the 1,720,500… a compounded growth rate of 2.21%/month. Less than HALF. More importantly, under the first blockade, the Rial peaked at 1,891,000:1… and then the MOU came, and it strengthened to 1,532,000:1. LESS than it was at the START of the war. 4) “We think the inflation rate is upwards of 180% in Iran” … Scott. My guy. This is published data that is very easy to verify. During the Iran War, Iran’s rate of inflation has been dramatically LOWER than it was in the lead up to the war. Just last month, the inflation rate was 7.2% month over month. This month? 3.2%. Less than HALF of what it was prior. Yes, it’s still ~84% year-over-year, but it is actively decreasing now DESPITE the blockade and Economic Fury, and is set to drop off a cliff once Iran gets the concessions in the MOU. 180% is a cherry picked number from the inflation rate of eggs. Stupid.

Let’s break down Bessent’s statements here, and line them up with reality: 1) “We have found the ‘money man’ for the Ayatollah, we are tracking his properties around the world” This is ludicrous. Ben Bartenstein at Bloomberg did a year-long investigation into both the Shamkhani network, as well as into Ali Ansari, who is the “money man” Bessent is referencing. This reporting was published in January, was widely read, and as a result, Iran built contingencies for the inevitable sanctioning of Ansari (which happened during the Iran War). 2) “We’re protecting this money for the American people” … do you mean the Iranian people Scott? It’s really hard to tell when you blatantly plunder Venezuela, and then multiple times threaten to steal Iran’s frozen assets to use for whatever Washington decided for the day. Funding repairs to vessels? Funding repairs to Gulf countries? In any event, it doesn’t seem like we had any intention to actually help the Iranian people with this money. 3) “Iran’s currency has collapsed, it’s at an all time low vs. the dollar and it’s in freefall.” So… I’ve run the numbers here. Multiple times. Over the last two years, the Rial rose at a compounded growth rate of 4.59%/month. From 586,500:1 on Feb 28, 2024, to 1,720,500:1 on Feb 28, 2026. The problem here is that since Feb 28, when the Iran War kicked off, the Rial has only risen to 1,919,000 from the 1,720,500… a compounded growth rate of 2.21%/month. Less than HALF. More importantly, under the first blockade, the Rial peaked at 1,891,000:1… and then the MOU came, and it strengthened to 1,532,000:1. LESS than it was at the START of the war. 4) “We think the inflation rate is upwards of 180% in Iran” … Scott. My guy. This is published data that is very easy to verify. During the Iran War, Iran’s rate of inflation has been dramatically LOWER than it was in the lead up to the war. Just last month, the inflation rate was 7.2% month over month. This month? 3.2%. Less than HALF of what it was prior. Yes, it’s still ~84% year-over-year, but it is actively decreasing now DESPITE the blockade and Economic Fury, and is set to drop off a cliff once Iran gets the concessions in the MOU. 180% is a cherry picked number from the inflation rate of eggs. Stupid.

Brett Erickson

108,032 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🚨 So, where is US inflation heading now? 🇺🇸 Markets called it “lower than expected”. But here in the Truflation community, we knew better. It was -exactly- what we expected. But how did we know? 📽️ This video breaks it down—clear as day—showing you how we track inflation and what we expect in the coming months. At Truflation, we process tens of millions of data points daily to update our real-time inflation indicator. Every single day, we: ✅ Ingest fresh data ✅ Categorize & validate it ✅ Upload it to the blockchain ✅ Deliver it directly to you This relentless approach allows us to detect inflation trends an average of 45 days before the BLS prints their numbers. But let’s clear up a common misconception: We are not trying to replicate the BLS absolute values. We have our own methodology to measure inflation 📝—one that we firmly believe reflects REAL inflation. However, because government decisions are based on outdated government data, when we predict BLS CPI prints, we adjust our model in a specific way… How do we predict BLS CPI so accurately? ⛔️We apply a penalty to our own data—yes, essentially, we simulate a scenario where our real-time insights don’t exist. We strip away our immediate access to fresh data and align our weightings with those of the BLS. The result? Our BLS CPI predictions have been extremely accurate—over the past 10 months, our forecasts have had an average deviation of just 0.02% (excluding January, when the BLS changed weightings). 🎯 And while we are happy to know that our community and premium subscribers use our leading indicator for everything from Bitcoin trades and US treasury bonds to FX markets, one thing still amazes us: 🇺🇸 The biggest economy in the world spends over a billion dollars on an institution (BLS) that uses an outdated methodology—just to base one of the world’s most critical decisions (monetary policy changes) on its lagging numbers. Meanwhile, a team of 18 people (myself included—the Truflation intern 🙂), working with less than 1% of that budget, is beating them by almost two months. Why? We can only speculate... But one thing is certain: 🔹 We will always keep exposing real inflation. 🔹 We will always keep spreading the TRUF. Thank you for your support. 🤝 And to those saying prices are only going up… 🚨 Yes, prices are still rising. Lower inflation does NOT mean lower prices. It simply means that prices are increasing at a slower rate. The damage of the past five years of compounded inflation is still being felt—your groceries, rent, and everyday expenses are still far more expensive than they were. And that’s exactly why tracking real-time inflation matters—so we know where we’re heading and no one lies to us. Truflation Team 🫡🇺🇸

🚨 So, where is US inflation heading now? 🇺🇸 Markets called it “lower than expected”. But here in the Truflation community, we knew better. It was -exactly- what we expected. But how did we know? 📽️ This video breaks it down—clear as day—showing you how we track inflation and what we expect in the coming months. At Truflation, we process tens of millions of data points daily to update our real-time inflation indicator. Every single day, we: ✅ Ingest fresh data ✅ Categorize & validate it ✅ Upload it to the blockchain ✅ Deliver it directly to you This relentless approach allows us to detect inflation trends an average of 45 days before the BLS prints their numbers. But let’s clear up a common misconception: We are not trying to replicate the BLS absolute values. We have our own methodology to measure inflation 📝—one that we firmly believe reflects REAL inflation. However, because government decisions are based on outdated government data, when we predict BLS CPI prints, we adjust our model in a specific way… How do we predict BLS CPI so accurately? ⛔️We apply a penalty to our own data—yes, essentially, we simulate a scenario where our real-time insights don’t exist. We strip away our immediate access to fresh data and align our weightings with those of the BLS. The result? Our BLS CPI predictions have been extremely accurate—over the past 10 months, our forecasts have had an average deviation of just 0.02% (excluding January, when the BLS changed weightings). 🎯 And while we are happy to know that our community and premium subscribers use our leading indicator for everything from Bitcoin trades and US treasury bonds to FX markets, one thing still amazes us: 🇺🇸 The biggest economy in the world spends over a billion dollars on an institution (BLS) that uses an outdated methodology—just to base one of the world’s most critical decisions (monetary policy changes) on its lagging numbers. Meanwhile, a team of 18 people (myself included—the Truflation intern 🙂), working with less than 1% of that budget, is beating them by almost two months. Why? We can only speculate... But one thing is certain: 🔹 We will always keep exposing real inflation. 🔹 We will always keep spreading the TRUF. Thank you for your support. 🤝 And to those saying prices are only going up… 🚨 Yes, prices are still rising. Lower inflation does NOT mean lower prices. It simply means that prices are increasing at a slower rate. The damage of the past five years of compounded inflation is still being felt—your groceries, rent, and everyday expenses are still far more expensive than they were. And that’s exactly why tracking real-time inflation matters—so we know where we’re heading and no one lies to us. Truflation Team 🫡🇺🇸

Truflation

293,472 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

My product Wells Intelligence is four months old. It started as a viral map of Texas RRC data I posted last fall. Enough oil & gas people reached out about it that I decided to build a real product. I would never have attempted this two years ago - I don't have an engineering team or VC funding. Agentic AI has empowered me to take this on - helping with everything from engineering tasks to figuring out Stripe. That said, AI can't do the hardest parts. I've spent hours on the phone with customers learning what they want from the product. I've had to figure out strategies for pricing, marketing, and churn prevention. But it's been a lot of fun taking on challenges like this that I wouldn't have considered before. Four months in, Wells Intelligence pays for itself and then some. And I have some awesome new features rolling out that I'll be posting about soon. Give Wells Intelligence a try:

My product Wells Intelligence is four months old. It started as a viral map of Texas RRC data I posted last fall. Enough oil & gas people reached out about it that I decided to build a real product. I would never have attempted this two years ago - I don't have an engineering team or VC funding. Agentic AI has empowered me to take this on - helping with everything from engineering tasks to figuring out Stripe. That said, AI can't do the hardest parts. I've spent hours on the phone with customers learning what they want from the product. I've had to figure out strategies for pricing, marketing, and churn prevention. But it's been a lot of fun taking on challenges like this that I wouldn't have considered before. Four months in, Wells Intelligence pays for itself and then some. And I have some awesome new features rolling out that I'll be posting about soon. Give Wells Intelligence a try:

Kyle Walker

54,185 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

BREAKING: “The NBS is lying with statistics." I told you that the new guys at the NBS are lying, & I was right! They are falsifying data. Dr. Reuben Abati has corroborated my position. Dr. Yemi Kale was the last Statistician General of Nigeria that told Nigerians the truth. He told us that he was under pressure for 10 years (to compromise the statistics his NBS published). However, the new boss at the NBS could not resist the pressure from the APC. He politicized your unemployment data. He simply devalued your unemployment rate from 33% to 4.6%. Yemi Kale told Arise TV back then, that he was pressured to change the parameters for calculating Unemployment numbers. But he was uncompromising; he stood firm. Reducing the number of working hours creates a false narrative, & paints the picture that everything is good (when the opposite is the case). The day Yemi left the NBS Nigeria, was the day I knew that data in Nigeria is dead. Celebrating the 3.46% GDP Growth for a population of 220 million is shameful. The new guys at the NBS are poised to "rebase" your GDP (to suit a certain type of narrative). Their Inflation data is equally false. Current Inflation in Nigeria is over 60%. Any data coming from the new NBS should be taken as data from the APC. Like INEC & the Judiciary, the NBS wasn’t spared from the ongoing State Capture. Data Integrity is a thing in Western countries. You don’t tamper with data. Data is life, the next thing after God. On Yemi Kale’s watch? Data Integrity was sacrosanct. Recall that as the then Minister of Labour, Dr. Chris Ngige was visibly angry with the Unemployment Numbers published by the uncompromising Yemi Kale. Dr. Goodluck Ebele Jonathan did not interfere as well. Despite all of the pressure from the APC, Yemi stood his ground. But Bola Tinubu is notorious for corrupting institutions. A man who told you “abi na statistics we go chop?” has no regard for Data Integrity. He found favor in the new man at the NBS (who has corn in his pocket). Check his closet, I’m sure you will find that very stupid & funny-looking Fascist’s Mandate Cap. He threw professionalism in the gutter. And when you hear him speak? You almost feel sorry for any investor who will rely on his data for their investment decisions. No Foreign Investor will trust the data coming from a compromised Institution of the government. For your own sake, I will advise you think twice before you apply the new data coming from the current NBS. When in doubt, ask questions.

BREAKING: “The NBS is lying with statistics." I told you that the new guys at the NBS are lying, & I was right! They are falsifying data. Dr. Reuben Abati has corroborated my position. Dr. Yemi Kale was the last Statistician General of Nigeria that told Nigerians the truth. He told us that he was under pressure for 10 years (to compromise the statistics his NBS published). However, the new boss at the NBS could not resist the pressure from the APC. He politicized your unemployment data. He simply devalued your unemployment rate from 33% to 4.6%. Yemi Kale told Arise TV back then, that he was pressured to change the parameters for calculating Unemployment numbers. But he was uncompromising; he stood firm. Reducing the number of working hours creates a false narrative, & paints the picture that everything is good (when the opposite is the case). The day Yemi left the NBS Nigeria, was the day I knew that data in Nigeria is dead. Celebrating the 3.46% GDP Growth for a population of 220 million is shameful. The new guys at the NBS are poised to "rebase" your GDP (to suit a certain type of narrative). Their Inflation data is equally false. Current Inflation in Nigeria is over 60%. Any data coming from the new NBS should be taken as data from the APC. Like INEC & the Judiciary, the NBS wasn’t spared from the ongoing State Capture. Data Integrity is a thing in Western countries. You don’t tamper with data. Data is life, the next thing after God. On Yemi Kale’s watch? Data Integrity was sacrosanct. Recall that as the then Minister of Labour, Dr. Chris Ngige was visibly angry with the Unemployment Numbers published by the uncompromising Yemi Kale. Dr. Goodluck Ebele Jonathan did not interfere as well. Despite all of the pressure from the APC, Yemi stood his ground. But Bola Tinubu is notorious for corrupting institutions. A man who told you “abi na statistics we go chop?” has no regard for Data Integrity. He found favor in the new man at the NBS (who has corn in his pocket). Check his closet, I’m sure you will find that very stupid & funny-looking Fascist’s Mandate Cap. He threw professionalism in the gutter. And when you hear him speak? You almost feel sorry for any investor who will rely on his data for their investment decisions. No Foreign Investor will trust the data coming from a compromised Institution of the government. For your own sake, I will advise you think twice before you apply the new data coming from the current NBS. When in doubt, ask questions.

NEFERTITI

73,018 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

What If Warsh Cuts Rates Next Week? Markets are overwhelmingly expecting Kevin Warsh to keep rates unchanged at his first Fed meeting next week, with some traders even pricing in the possibility of higher rates later this year. But what if the consensus is wrong? In this Short video, Lawrence Lepard, "fix the money, fix the world" presents the contrarian case that Warsh could be far more dovish than investors expect. The argument starts with inflation. Warsh has suggested that traditional inflation measures may overstate current price pressures and that alternative metrics, such as Dallas Trimmed PCE, paint a much cooler picture. If inflation is closer to target than headline data suggests, the justification for maintaining restrictive policy becomes much weaker. Another key piece of the thesis is productivity. Warsh has repeatedly discussed the transformative impact of AI on economic output. If artificial intelligence drives a meaningful productivity boom, the economy could grow faster without generating the same inflationary pressures that normally accompany growth. That would give the Fed more room to lower rates without reigniting inflation. The discussion also highlights the possibility that recent inflation pressures are being driven by temporary factors, particularly energy prices and geopolitical tensions. If those pressures ease, inflation could fall naturally, strengthening the case for easier monetary policy. There is also a broader economic backdrop to consider. The administration has made economic growth, domestic manufacturing, and reindustrialization central priorities. Building factories, infrastructure, and supply chains requires capital, and high interest rates make those investments more difficult. Lower rates would provide the financial fuel needed to accelerate those goals. The most controversial part of the conversation is the suggestion that Warsh could deliver not just a rate cut, but potentially a larger-than-expected cut (50 bps) if he wants to quickly reset policy. While that remains a low-probability outcome, Lawrence Lepard, "fix the money, fix the world" argues that markets may be underestimating the possibility of a significant shift in direction. If that happens, stocks could respond very positively as lower rates improve liquidity, reduce financing costs, and support higher valuations. However, the bigger story may be in #bonds. Long-term Treasury investors could view aggressive easing as inflationary or fiscally irresponsible, pushing #yields sharply higher. In that scenario, equities celebrate the pivot while the bond market revolts. So, according to Lawrence Lepard, "fix the money, fix the world", Kevin Warsh may not follow the path investors currently expect. If he embraces alternative inflation measures, leans on the AI productivity story, and prioritizes growth, the market could be forced to rapidly reprice both interest-rate expectations and long-term bond yields. 🔽Get access to my notes with the key takeaways from this interview with Lawrence Lepard, "fix the money, fix the world" by visiting my Substack (link below) ⬇️

What If Warsh Cuts Rates Next Week? Markets are overwhelmingly expecting Kevin Warsh to keep rates unchanged at his first Fed meeting next week, with some traders even pricing in the possibility of higher rates later this year. But what if the consensus is wrong? In this Short video, Lawrence Lepard, "fix the money, fix the world" presents the contrarian case that Warsh could be far more dovish than investors expect. The argument starts with inflation. Warsh has suggested that traditional inflation measures may overstate current price pressures and that alternative metrics, such as Dallas Trimmed PCE, paint a much cooler picture. If inflation is closer to target than headline data suggests, the justification for maintaining restrictive policy becomes much weaker. Another key piece of the thesis is productivity. Warsh has repeatedly discussed the transformative impact of AI on economic output. If artificial intelligence drives a meaningful productivity boom, the economy could grow faster without generating the same inflationary pressures that normally accompany growth. That would give the Fed more room to lower rates without reigniting inflation. The discussion also highlights the possibility that recent inflation pressures are being driven by temporary factors, particularly energy prices and geopolitical tensions. If those pressures ease, inflation could fall naturally, strengthening the case for easier monetary policy. There is also a broader economic backdrop to consider. The administration has made economic growth, domestic manufacturing, and reindustrialization central priorities. Building factories, infrastructure, and supply chains requires capital, and high interest rates make those investments more difficult. Lower rates would provide the financial fuel needed to accelerate those goals. The most controversial part of the conversation is the suggestion that Warsh could deliver not just a rate cut, but potentially a larger-than-expected cut (50 bps) if he wants to quickly reset policy. While that remains a low-probability outcome, Lawrence Lepard, "fix the money, fix the world" argues that markets may be underestimating the possibility of a significant shift in direction. If that happens, stocks could respond very positively as lower rates improve liquidity, reduce financing costs, and support higher valuations. However, the bigger story may be in #bonds. Long-term Treasury investors could view aggressive easing as inflationary or fiscally irresponsible, pushing #yields sharply higher. In that scenario, equities celebrate the pivot while the bond market revolts. So, according to Lawrence Lepard, "fix the money, fix the world", Kevin Warsh may not follow the path investors currently expect. If he embraces alternative inflation measures, leans on the AI productivity story, and prioritizes growth, the market could be forced to rapidly reprice both interest-rate expectations and long-term bond yields. 🔽Get access to my notes with the key takeaways from this interview with Lawrence Lepard, "fix the money, fix the world" by visiting my Substack (link below) ⬇️

Thoughtful Money®

11,749 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten